The intellectual content of the comments has increased significantly. I appreciate this one:


Yes it is gold's fault (and kudos/thanks for pointing that out), because gold has severe weaknesses such that it can't be realistically employed in commerce and thus lead to the use of proxies instead:

• Can't be instantly transferred across distance
• Physically visible thus a target for theft and confiscation- think roadblocks and holdups
• Each unit of gold has only one copy, thus if you lose the one copy you've lost its value.
• Standardized units (e.g. coins) depend on centralized authority for reputation, are not easily divisible, and can be shaved or filled with impurities.

If you've noticed, crypto-currency doesn't have those weaknesses, yet also lacks one critically important quality that gold has:

• anonymity

That changed when Satoshi invented a solution to the Byzantine General's problem, known as proof-of-work.


Disagree. Gold maintains value because it has physical rareness (along with being durable, fungible, divisible with some effort, etc). Crypto-currency has no such rareness and can be easily duplicated. The value of crypto-currency has always been its ability to do autonomous (i.e. onchain) decentralized transactions due to proof-of-work.

If you remove that with offchain, then you've destroyed the only value that was there.

It is hoped that if there is value due to the onchain capability that the community will not prefer duplicates. It may also be the case that over time there will be too many network effects of higher degree (not just merchants who only accept one of the crypto-currencies), so duplicates are not desirable. We don't yet have that with Bitcoin because it doesn't have anonymity and also it can't do everything onchain including represent stocks, contracts, etc...partially due to technical reasons and partially due to lack of development and community adoption of decentralized onchain paradigms.

---

+1. Very astute. Thanks.

What qualities does Buffet have in common with Greenspan and Dimon?

Buffet invests for long-term, conservative income. His favorite holding period is forever.

Greenspan is a shrill for central banking. Dimon is member of the investment (e.g. junk bonds, etc) bankers who privatize profits and charge speculative losses to the public.

Buffet is tied into central banking and government because he needs his long-term business investments to not be subject to a global economic collapse and because he needs regulatory licenses for his Geico insurance, Wells Fargo bank, etc.. But his investment acumen is not of the same quality as the two you mentioned.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-21244


See also:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518453.msg5775371#msg5775371

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-21244


See also:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518453.msg5775371#msg5775371

And I must be racist too since those are Hispanic terms despite of the fact that I grew up in all black neighborhoods in inner city New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

All of us have made failed predictions (myself included). And your question is very humble and astute. Thank you.

I am confident of two predictions:

1. Crypto-currency can't become a unit-of-account without stronger anonymity (i.e. in an altcoin) or unless Bitcoin becomes effectively controlled by the government(s) and they decide then to give it legal-tender status. The latter can happen if most activity will be done offchain in banking institutions, which toknormal was advocating upthread.

2. Severe global economic collapse before 2020, mostly likely quite evident by 2016ish.

The reason I'm very confident of #2 is because due to the invention of central banking we are at a 200+ year high in debt, at a level that has never been seen before at 313% of global GDP (376% of developed country GDP if we exclude emerging markets), $223 trillion of debt, $1000 trillion of derivatives, and $1000 trillion of government promises to the people which are yet to be funded. That simply can't sustain and at the same time the computer is going to automate 47% of existing jobs according to Oxford University research, thus massive technological unemployment coming until the youth learn to adjust to the new paradigm. On top of that, Armstrong's computer models agree. Note although central banking was invented at the end of the Middle Ages, it didn't become globally ubiquitous until the 20th century. Central banking is what enabled the debt and socialism above to grow so humongous, because it prevented defaults and corrections by being the lender of last resort.

The reason I'm very confident of #1 is because (to re-summarize what I've written in the two Buffet threads) Max Weber's canonical definition of government (i.e. society!) is "a monopoly on force". Autonomous money goes to battle against the entire concept of society. And from a technical and human nature perspective most people prefer everything easy, thus they will not prefer to use decentralized on-chain paradigms. They will prefer to do what toknormal suggested which is use offchain accounts at banking institutions. Bitcoin currently has no compelling advantage over credit cards and paypal for most consumers (thus very few merchants accept BTC exclusively), thus it will require offchain accounts to make it more competitive. Offchain accounts is centralization and fractional reserves, and/or government regulation and oversight. We see this happening before our eyes (Mt.Gox!), yet most are still in denial?!

Thus I conclude (as much as I hate it) to admit that the old fart is correct. But I think the smart people who want to survive this coming crisis (because governments will be taxing and confiscating all the wealth due to the severe global economic collapse) will adopt an anonymous altcoin which has decentralized on-chain exchanges, payment services, etc.. And I think Buffet will be wrong about that. The quality of the implementation will determine if this is realistic or not.

Add this:

Something big is coming? 4 bankers suicide last week

Necessity: The Argument of Tyrants

Also:


Did you know years ago Armstrong's computer predicted the rise in strife to come in 2014? Did you know early in 2013 Armstrong pinpointed Ukraine and Russia threatening Europe again?

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-21244

Please tell me why the next G20 meeting can't address this email exchange as a serious threat to their collective authority and resolve to make necessary decrees from the EU to provide the necessary legal authority to prosecute MPOE.

Also MPOE you are taking a huge personal risk here. You better not have the slightest mistake as they might find it easier to take you down with a trumped up charge.

If all else fails, a fiery car accident.

I admire people with balls but combined with some basic common sense. It does me no good to associate with people who are so careless so as to actively seek their own destruction.

You seem to feel very indignant about this and have the sort of Paul Revere attitude of "give me liberty or give me death".

I just think there are much smarter ways of fighting than out in the open. The quality of ones weapons and strategy determines if they are the victor, not the quality of resolve alone.

The Apaches were never defeated because they didn't fight in the open:

http://www.starfishandspider.com/preview/02.html

I think you would have been much better served to have replied that you need to be legally indemnified before releasing private data. That is all you needed to say. You talk too much. Although you are articulate, you are clearly not an attorney and you should hire one immediately and STFU.

Note I was banned from tortilla's new forum cryptocrypt.org for essentially stating the prior paragraph.

Edit: essentially you are doing political grandstanding. You can't beat society at its own game. Politics is not the successful strategy.

That is nonsense. For that same reason, Bitcoin can't even technically function if everyone has a public key with a 1 Satoshi balance.

Also on the issue of taint here is legal precedent analysis:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=491181.msg5497952#msg5497952

Mish is also ignorant:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/03/missing-boat-on-bitcoin-ownership.html


There is already research showing it can be done. The block chain is very traceable. Nothwithstanding that, I argued at the above legal analysis link that a more likely equitable restitution for widespread theft in mixed funds is a tax to pay for deposit insurance on Bitcoin, i.e. a shared and collective solution to theft.

The OP is nonsense, and here is why:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5146060#msg5146060

Exclusion is precise logic. That is unless you think the universe isn't infinite and you can enumerate everything. Just try to enumerate everything and you will be enumerating for a looooong timeee my stupid nemesis. That will fly over your head. You may think you are a programmer, but you are obviously no where near my level.

Perhaps you've never heard of Kurt Gödel's incompleteness theorem. That is because you are not a computer scientist.


From here on I ignore you, because you are a certified imbecile with a big cocky mouth and too stupid to even realize it. (a quality shared by many who reside in the 50 states these days unfortunately, and I'm a U.S. citizen)

As for predicting the future, Armstrong's A.I. computer has been regularly doing it, because history repeats itself. This is a precise science. You ignore him at your peril. This is all discussed in more detail at the Economic Devastation and Mad Max threads.



Ah I see that gold prediction from last year is now coming true exactly as I expected it would rise to $1400s this spring then decline again. Now watch it decline again

Note gold only hit a low slightly below $1200 in 2013, thus it still needs to make a bottom yet. We see two bounces off that $1175ish level and both have been dead cat bounces that have failed. Thus we are going lower than $1175.

The reason I can say that with confidence is because the dollar and the NYSE will become very strong in 2015. The NYSE is likely to double from here. This is all due to international capital flows as the capital is no running from emerging markets (only the retail investor thus far but the institutional investors will follow soon then it will accelerate) and later this year or next running from Japan and Europe too. All headed into the dollar.

Kevin explains well Armstrong's model for emerging markets:

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-17790


The emerging market corporations are laden with dollar bond issues debt as they were soaking up the free money from Q.E. which left the USA to find higher rates of return. Because under ZIRP the fixed interest investor (e.g. pension funds) was getting killed.

So now the emerging markets have to repay dollar debt with local currencies which will be declining relative to the dollar. This will force their currencies lower spiraling the toilet bowl. Also all the emerging markets have negative trade deficits once the China bubble busts. For example here in Philippines they show an official current account surplus of $11.3 billion but this doesn't include $19 billion of unrecorded smuggling of rice from ASEAN and cheap products from China.

Meaning more dollars going out than coming in. Thus the emerging markets will exhaust their dollar reserves and default again.

Borrower is slave to the lender. Bernanke made the dollar the lender of last resort to the entire world. Now the world is slave to the dollar.

I suppose these folks forgot about the regularly shifting El Nino and La Nina patterns. I was in high school in Southern California in the early 1980s and I remember the extreme rains due to that shifting pattern.

We are also seeing very cold weather this year in the Philippines and many powerful typhoons over the past three years, especially last year.

I see they are shifting the terminology from "global warming" to "climate change". I suppose their massive fuckup on predicting a warming trend isn't enough to embarrass the shit out of their junk "science".

We must redesign some of the protocol infrastructure of the internet.

When I say this, I am not talking about working through the W3.org (although I am listed as a contributor there to the design of CSS2.1).

No we need something more market based and immediate, analogous to how Netscape was setting de facto HTML standards in the 1990s.

I do have a specific action in plan. Something analogous to PirateBay's efforts but I think better and more general.

You need to take a class in formal logic.

No where did I make a statement excluding it reaching zero.

I said it eventually reaches virtually 0. That is logically consistent with (no exclusion of) it reaching 0 later.

I am a programmer and you are not. I have extremely accurate logic. Else I wouldn't have made the programs that I did. Period.

Now I said I want to stop this nonsense. Can we please?

Sigh.


vir·tu·al·ly
ˈvərCHə(wə)lē/
adverb
adverb: virtually

    1.
    nearly; almost.

You better save your money, there are going to be much bigger wars with larger stakes before 2020.

This is only the beginning. Don't even imagine you will stop it in Ukraine, because the problem driving increasing strife (e.g. see China becoming aggressive in ASEAN) is global bankruptcy. That is what is forcing every man's hand. Russia's economy is also threatened and the gas pipeline to Europe passes through Ukraine.

I will not be replying to pontiacg5 and toknormal again, because they repeat the same broken non-arguments again and again. I have more important things to do.

Come on guys, this silly arguing is wasting our time. You guys go with Bitcoin and I will go my own direction.

You two can have the last word. I will prefer the last action.

You guys are losing badly where it matters for me. I am receiving overwhelming support in my private messages. You two are making fools of yourselves for those who are smart enough to see. And those are precisely the people I wanted to reach. My teaching goal here is done or at least as far as I am willing to take it in this forum. My wish is for all the dumb people to stay in Bitcoin and the smart people to exit something better.

toknormal, I already explained upthread that offchain accounts lead to fractional reserves and failure. You are repeating the same nonsense. Proceed with your offchain Bitcoin plan so you can retain the status quo of fiat banking and commerce.

pontiacg5, the issue for miners is not just tax compliance, it is about forcing you to force tax compliance on all transactions you add to the block. It is all about coin taint. You can read up on this coin taint issue from the core developers such a gmaxell, mike hearn, etc..

What you fail to appreciate is history. I guess you didn't pay attention during world history or perhaps your dumbed down education there in Kansas doesn't teach you about the way socialism slides into totalitarianism over and over throughout history.

The salient point (and I'm confident it will fly over your head and you will reply something off point again) is that don't expect the government to act sane as it slides into the abyss. They will demand blood from a turnip.

All the nations will be bankrupted and under severe riots and stress by 2016ish. And the FATCA is coming this year which will compel all nations to comply with USA demands. And the dollar will become incredibly strong in 2015 as all the other currencies become very weak. Every nation will be eating from the USA's hand. The emerging markets are massively short the dollar. But you don't know any of this information because you don't study as deeply the details as I do.

Sorry that you can't understand that when I pay with a credit card, I am done and get my domain name or download product in seconds. With Bitcoin, I wait 20 - 30 minutes. When I need to do this several times per day, it makes me curse Bitcoin. And this has actually happened to me numerous times.

Bitcoin's new coinbase awards will be 1.7% in 2020, 0.8% in 2024 and 0.2% in 2032, that is not 100 years from now. I can see 6th grade math is not your strong suite.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Long_Term

Your points about alt/BTC exchange entirely misses the point that without anonymity, altcoins will be subject to the same regulatory controls as Bitcoin. Period. No tinfoil hats required to do that simple analysis.

I must agree with you that the nonrefundable quality of Bitcoin can open new markets. It also closes off much larger markets. See also my reply to toknormal above. Note Bitcoin has multisig on chain, so if developers would simply use it, then Bitcoin could do refunds via escrowed third parties. At least it would be on the block chain, so no slide into fractional reserves failure.

From private message:


In maximum division-of-labor no one person is omnipotent, because he/she doesn't have the specialized knowledge in every field. In open source we work together because doing otherwise fails in competition with others who adhere to open source. Because given enough specialized eyeballs, all bugs are shallow.

So in short, the 3 cops won't get very far if they are doing harm to society, because there is too much specialized knowledge they don't have that will battle them in varying scenarios.

The power gets spread around. Top-down controllers become impotent because the holders of specialized knowledge withdraw their support, e.g. as we are doing now with crypto-currency to the fiat controllers. We have more specialized knowledge than they do.

pontiacg5, you've displayed your youthful ignorant idealism. All the governments of the world are into regulation. Doing a few high profile prosecutions on pools will be enough to scare the rest of them to enforce the regulations on you. Once there are 51% of the pools who are refusing blocks from pools which don't attach their signed regulated control number, then your movement to a unregulated pool means you earn precisely zero and your ASIC is a brick.

You don't seem to understand that the bankrupt masses are against you. They will support their governments' attempts to stop tax evasion and get control over the movement of money, because for one reason the government pays them.


What are you smoking?

I had a merchant account. Verification is a few seconds.

If you are referring to when the cash is transferred to the merchant account, that is irrelevant because from the customer's perspective it is instant because the merchant trusts the credit card company to fulfill the payment 95+% of the time.


Hell no. I hate that 10 minute delay. It slows me down a lot. I don't have 10 minutes to wait when I have several transactions to do, in fact where they were sequentially ordered and I couldn't do them in parallel.

And often it is more like 20 - 30 minutes.


What benefits for your average consumer? I see only disadvantages and no benefits.


Faster block periods doesn't require no generation of new coins.

Btw, Bitcoin's generation of new coins declines eventually to virtually 0.


You don't want your ASIC becoming a useless brick. I understand now the motivation for your myopia.


Indeed altcoins offer more opportunities to experiment with what might be more stable against threats. Most will not succeed, but some or one might.

localbitcoins is not decentralized. You can't do anything without passing through a central server. Everything is logged there. Additionally most users are trading via traceable bank accounts, paypal, western union (with id), etc..


IRS (or equivalent in your country) sends you a summons for an audit. If necessary it is elevated to court and even criminal charges.

Enough of these examples will scare everyone else into complying.

To comply you need to demand identification from everyone you transact with and e-file a 1099 (or what ever form the IRS decides is required).

End of story. The users will regulate it for the IRS.

You guys keep making this same mistaken analysis even I've already explained upthread why this is incorrect.

Bitcoin is already owned by the few pools, the few big exchanges, Bitpay, and other offchain businesses that will all be de facto "owned" by the government via regulation.

You either go 100% decentralized and do everything on the block chain, or you go back to ownership by the elite again.

There is no such thing as a little bit pregnant. Decide what you want.

Edit: I would relish the day that no one needed a bank, insurance company, or any other leeches who serve no necessary function.