hahahahahaha

I don't believe you.

I remember you made a very similar statement before, so I understand that BTC price dynamics can cause you to reconsider your earlier statement(s), so why should this time be different?

Can you continue to change the "stop loss" price point and keep the long open?  

Under current conditions, that could be the smartest move, just to keep the long open and to keep moving the stop loss point up as the BTC price moves up, until at some point you will get stopped out, but hopefully not getting stopped out too soon and we have a bit more upwards from this point, just for "fun"...  (wishful thinking, perhaps?)


Oh you already answered my question, except raised a new point.  What is "the golden ratio?"

We don't use Kraken for price referrals.


You ever heard about Bitstamp? 

You are correct.   I prefer to consider my "advice" as mere brainstorming suggestions, but still some folks are just lost causes (or perhaps too far gone, which may have been the case with Rpietila, and even maybe your case, too, as you are suggesting). 

Hey, I did appreciate your earlier quality of life comment in which you asserted that there is a party in your pants.  That is a very good thing.  One decent sign of life does seem to be libido (even though there can be questions regarding whether the physicality (meat wagon) of some folks is capable of such libido).  I do understand that people do create other pursuits when they don't have libido, but ongoing libido does seem to be a good quality of life thing. 

Baby has to wait 30 years?  You BIG meanie!!!!!!!!!

Now, you are talking pure dumb.

Do you have a brain, or you just want to spread FUD?

Even if the price is dumped or pumped based on some kind of worldly scenario (such as difficulty adjustment) does not mean that such price dump (or pump) was caused by such correlated event.  In other words, you are coming off as either motivated to spread FUD (better case scenario) or retarded.

You buying into the Bitcoin downward spiral theory that is based on hashpower decreases?   

Let's see how it plays out, but those theories seem to be motivated by FUD spreading attempts rather than real and meaningful threats to bitcoin's actual security.

Personally, i believe that sometimes we are going to see correlations in the shorter time frames that might not exist very much when we zoom out to longer time frames.

So, it may not matter too much, that you are able to identify short term correlations.

Aren't you worried about how long you will live?

I see people in regular life who look like very unhealthy, and sometimes, just walking and attempting to eat healthy foods, such as all natural, steaks, eggs and things like that, can really go a long way to providing energy.  Might not cause you to live forever, but would likely increase energy levels and even increase odds of longer life (to be able to longer enjoy the fruits of the likely upcoming BTC price gains - even if they are delayed until 5 years into the future).

By the way, in my youth, I never really sought to be rich or to pursue money because I thought that those kinds of pursuits were superficial in comparison to engaging in activities that really are enjoyable on a personal level.  With regards to BTC (and my fortunes that have come through such BTC investments), I consider them to be kind of side benefits and icing on the cake to cause me to become much more rich than I had ever planned on becoming.  Merely an ongoing good fortune for me that was more of a side-hobby than a central means to income (at least how it has played out for me, so far).

When I initially saw g-uid's post, I was thinking that perhaps some people make their buying decisions based on these kinds of difficulty adjustment projections, but even more that I was thinking that BTC price is not directly correlated to these kinds of adjustments, but of course, miners are deciding how much hashing power to throw at mining based on BTC price and profitability, so there is a bit of a back and forth going on there, which is likely responding to price incentives... so if the price keeps going down, then difficulty is likely to keep going down, too.  

In sum, Hairy is correct, as usual.        why am I even posting here? 

So, does that mean that you are in your late 60s or early 70s?

Mortality is surely a thing that each of us needs to appreciate in terms of the extent to which we are going to be able to wait out any potential bull run and perhaps start cashing out BTC on a regular basis no matter the price (because we know that we cannot take it with us, and should we really pass it on to others or attempt to use it while living?).

Even though I exercise pretty regularly, treat myself pretty decently, and bang on a fairly regular basis, I still experience some regular signs of my own demise to remind me of my mortality, causing me to think that best case scenario would be that I have about 10 years before I have to begin cashing out on a regular basis, but with any one of us, there could be some life changing event(s) that change our regular cashing out timeline, and cause us to feel that it is good to start the regular cashing out sooner than we had already considered to be prudnt.

I understand that there are some thread participants who are kind of aiming for a certain BTC price in the $10 to $100k arena to trigger their cashing out, which is a related, but a bit different way of considering the urgency of cashing out (versus the mortality considerations).   

I am thinking something similar.

Even though the dynamics of the next pump will likely be different (assuming there is a next pump), yet there is no real reason to conclude that either ICOs, Alts or dumb money has been purged from the cryptospace.  There would have to be some really dramatic changes before they are really killed off, and I am not even sure if a 2 year crypto winter would actually cause such killing off of such dumb money that surely likely to go along for any kind of pump, even if there is no there, there.

How could the bear market be over?  We just confirmed (when BTC decisively broke below $6k) that we are actually in a bear market.  Before that time, we had merely confirmed that we were in the middle of a price correction.

So currently, it seems to get back above $6k, assuming that BTC prices rebound, the better case scenario is 3 months and the worse case scenario is in the 2 year arena.  Most of us here would likely prefer going up sooner rather than later, and I suppose that some benefits regarding a longer and more drawn out recovery would be that the BTC price would be on more solid grounds for the next hopefully happening upwards price surge at some point after the halvening.

TLDR: I am not proclaiming to know anything more than anyone else, yet my point is that your proclamation that the bear market is "over" seems way too premature, especially given recent price happenings, including breaking below $6k without any significant rebound.

If boy/tranny is the case, then for sure, we would prefer the bottom to be in the rear view mirror.  Amirite?

Did you save some fiat, just in case the BTC price goes down lower from here in the next few weeks?

You might get lucky, but you are gambling.

A better strategy is to buy a little now, and hold some fiat in reserves to buy more in 1st quarter of 2019 if you believe that there might be another dump.  

Anyhow, you have to chose for yourself, but frequently it is better to be prepared for either direction, and if you hold zero bitcoin right now, you are not prepared for UP, which may have less than a 40% chance from here, but even less than 40% is nothing to sneeze at, especially if UP ends up happening, rather than your expected down.

By the way, even if you assess the probability of down from here (into 1st quarter 2019) at 80%, you still should consider the 20% chance that you are wrong.  And, anyhow, I doubt that anyone making 80% predictions is anywhere in the ballpark of reasonable, even under current conditions.  But of course, you are free to assign whatever value you believe under whatever parameters you consider most relevant.

Like this:

Yep.

Shows the fallacy of trying to rely on sorcery to give too much weight to probabilities about BTC price movements, especially short-term.

I don't have any obligation to attempt anything in order to discredit your fantasy-based notions, especially when you are further distorting (and making shit up) regarding what I had already stated.

Furthermore, hardly anyone, who is active in this thread, gives too much of a ratt's ass about what you say, except to the extent that some of those folks might be are here trolling/shilling, like you, and have some sympatica with you on such troll/shill basis - especially because you mostly tend to be off topic with your bullshit pumping of PMs and your other hate-based blather / talking points.

I merited your post because I had appreciated your effort to describe the current low adoption and slow development of the bitcoin space, and I believe that I largely understood your intentions.

Of course, since we are posting in English, in this thread, it does not hurt to continue to attempt to refine the quality of your posts through practice.