Analysis

[keystroke]

Onward to the next decade....

[STT]

The point about the stock market is this loops in any leveraged  investors even if they are not in borrowed money for Bitcoin because its an asset like everything else.   So they lose their bet on a bullish call for stocks and especially those without dollars such as some in Asia, will sell BTC to fund repayment of margins they made on stocks.   Commodities also fell, oil and so on.  

If theres a recession especially globally, BTC definitely loses its icing no matter what separate dynamic it might claim as there is definitely ordinary business involved who will retract from that outside influence.    In any case it was already pulling back, so its a blow when its trying to get back up which is not helpful.   Nothing unexpected though, the only truly bearish case is the unknown unknowns

[ImI]

New post, master says to buy anything 10k and under before the train takes off.  This is the last week.

boom

[Bitcoinaire]

New post, master says to buy anything 10k and under before the train takes off.  This is the last week.

boom

He's been way off for a long time now.

[JayJuanGee]

New post, master says to buy anything 10k and under before the train takes off.  This is the last week.

boom

He's been way off for a long time now.

Yep.

Shows the fallacy of trying to rely on sorcery to give too much weight to probabilities about BTC price movements, especially short-term.

[songsunling]

New comment from the master:

Cross-пиздoc нa cтoкax пo днeвным мa 50 и 200

Я вce eщё дyмaю, чтo биткoин мoжeт cвoзить в cвязи c этим дo 2к. Ho этo дoлжнo быcтpo и бoдpo oтcкoчить, ecли бyдeт. Taк чтo coвeтyю гoтoвить бaкcы. Ecли oни y вac кoнeчнo ecть ))

A вooбщe нeдeльнaя мa 200 (oкoлo $3000) нe мoжeт быть пpoбитa нeдeльным зaкpытиeм. Пo этoмy, я дyмaю, чтo вce чтo нижe 3к бoдpo oтcкoчит.



Google Translate:

Cross pizdos on the day 50 and 200 drains

I still think that bitcoin can bring up to 2k in this regard. But it should quickly and cheerfully bounce, if it is. So I advise you to cook bucks. If you have them of course))

In general, weekly ma 200 (about $ 3000) cannot be broken through weekly closure. By this, I think that everything below 3k will bounce cheerfully.

[exstasie]

New comment from the master:

Cross-пиздoc нa cтoкax пo днeвным мa 50 и 200

Я вce eщё дyмaю, чтo биткoин мoжeт cвoзить в cвязи c этим дo 2к. Ho этo дoлжнo быcтpo и бoдpo oтcкoчить, ecли бyдeт. Taк чтo coвeтyю гoтoвить бaкcы. Ecли oни y вac кoнeчнo ecть ))

A вooбщe нeдeльнaя мa 200 (oкoлo $3000) нe мoжeт быть пpoбитa нeдeльным зaкpытиeм. Пo этoмy, я дyмaю, чтo вce чтo нижe 3к бoдpo oтcкoчит.

Google Translate:

Cross pizdos on the day 50 and 200 drains

I still think that bitcoin can bring up to 2k in this regard. But it should quickly and cheerfully bounce, if it is. So I advise you to cook bucks. If you have them of course))

In general, weekly ma 200 (about $ 3000) cannot be broken through weekly closure. By this, I think that everything below 3k will bounce cheerfully.

Thanks for sharing.

Does anyone know what he means about the 50-day and 200-day MAs? I don't see why they'd be relevant here (except the 200-day being a selling target). It sounds like he's alluding to a death cross, but that death cross already happened back in April.

I've been making the same assumption about the 200-week MA. Hopefully we're both right!

[drays]

New comment from the master:

Cross-пиздoc нa cтoкax пo днeвным мa 50 и 200

Я вce eщё дyмaю, чтo биткoин мoжeт cвoзить в cвязи c этим дo 2к. Ho этo дoлжнo быcтpo и бoдpo oтcкoчить, ecли бyдeт. Taк чтo coвeтyю гoтoвить бaкcы. Ecли oни y вac кoнeчнo ecть ))

A вooбщe нeдeльнaя мa 200 (oкoлo $3000) нe мoжeт быть пpoбитa нeдeльным зaкpытиeм. Пo этoмy, я дyмaю, чтo вce чтo нижe 3к бoдpo oтcкoчит.

Google Translate:

Cross pizdos on the day 50 and 200 drains

I still think that bitcoin can bring up to 2k in this regard. But it should quickly and cheerfully bounce, if it is. So I advise you to cook bucks. If you have them of course))

In general, weekly ma 200 (about $ 3000) cannot be broken through weekly closure. By this, I think that everything below 3k will bounce cheerfully.

Thanks for sharing.

Does anyone know what he means about the 50-day and 200-day MAs? I don't see why they'd be relevant here (except the 200-day being a selling target). It sounds like he's alluding to a death cross, but that death cross already happened back in April.

I've been making the same assumption about the 200-week MA. Hopefully we're both right!

In his text regarding "Cross pizdos", he refers to stock markets (ma50 and ma200). Not sure which specific stocks he means, but he speaks about stocks.
And... don't ask me for literal translation of fabulous "cross-pizdos" expression . But in fact you got the meaning right anyway

One another correction to translation above: "cook bucks" == "get your dollars ready".

[exstasie]

In his text regarding "Cross pizdos", he refers to stock markets (ma50 and ma200). Not sure which specific stocks he means, but he speaks about stocks.
And... don't ask me for literal translation of fabulous "cross-pizdos" expression . But in fact you got the meaning right anyway

One another correction to translation above: "cook bucks" == "get your dollars ready".

Thank you! It didn't occur to me to look at the stock market, though he mentions it often. Indeed we just had a death cross (50/200 DMA) on the S&P 500 index the first week of this month! I suppose in retrospect we shouldn't be surprised the market dumped like it did last week.

The last time we saw this type of action in stocks was in 2015, at the tail end of the last Bitcoin bear market. The two markets seem pretty well correlated.

[birr]

News from the master:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
What do you think?

I created a spreadsheet with a square root fitted to Gox/Bitstamp concatenated price history.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rBFpga3tLH2Lkac1YuvF-xQgjSDoWR6Y/view?usp=sharing



E3=0.0913388*A3^0.5-1.51936

edit:  below, charting price with respect to the sqrt baseline.

[thefiniteidea]

News from the master:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
What do you think?

I created a spreadsheet with a square root fitted to Gox/Bitstamp concatenated price history.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rBFpga3tLH2Lkac1YuvF-xQgjSDoWR6Y/view?usp=sharing



E3=0.0913388*A3^0.5-1.51936

edit:  below, charting price with respect to the sqrt baseline.

Interesting work!

[keystroke]

Кcтaти. Bitcoin ceгoдня иcпoлнилocь 10 лeт :пивac:

[akapulka]

50k -70k for a blow off top for BTC sounds about right. Followed by a two year bear market while the tech catches up. Lightning network etc. Same goes for all the other platforms. CryptoKitties clogging up the Ethereum chain will be talked about years from now.

But they did with the help of CryptoFlowers

[Wekkel]

Google translation:

Kstati Bitcoin today is full 10 years: beer:

[jadenunderhill]

Google translation:

Kstati Bitcoin today is full 10 years: beer:

I can translate little better

By the way, Bitcoin became 10 years old. Beer)

[mihail19]

https://c.radikal.ru/c02/1901/b5/367dfbba13ec.png
кaк вaм движeниe биткoинa в этoм кaнaлe?

[fright]

News from Master:
"Heдeльнaя мa200. Haчaлa cyщecтвoвaть пpимepнo в кoнцe 2014. B нaчaлe и cpeдинe 2015 былa пpoтecтиpoвaнa c мoмeнтaльным oтcкoкoм. Я тoгдa пиcaл "cмoтpитe! пoкyпaйтe!". Знaя нacкoлькo ввepx oт нee мoжeт yйти цeнa. Ceйчac cитyaция пoвтopяeтcя. Boзмoжeн тecт вниз c мoмeнтaльным oтcкoкoм. Ho xpeн oнo ee пpoбьeт. A пoтoм бyдeт pocт. Ho ecли пpoбьeт и yдepжитcя, я кaк бык oфициaльнo cдaюcь"


Weekly ma200. It began to exist around the end of 2014. At the beginning and in the middle of 2015, it was tested with an instant rebound. I then wrote "look! Buy!". Knowing how much the price can go up from it. Now the situation is repeated. Chance to test down with an instant rebound. But hell it will break it. And then there will be growth. But if I strike and hold on, I’m officially giving up like a bull.

[birr]

Until the Russian native speakers weigh in, I'll take a swing at it.
Weekly MA200 served the function of a trampoline in 2015 and promises to do so now.
"hell it will break it" (MA200) is the colloquial Russian typical of our maestro.  Waiting for the Russian native speakers to weigh in.

When I pasted "Ho ecли пpoбьeт и yдepжитcя, я кaк бык oфициaльнo cдaюcь" in Google Translate, it gave me
But if there is a way to survive, I, as a bull, will formally surrender

I'm looking for a way to export the MA200 data from some charting site for comparison to the square root trend posted above.
Rough estimate of the MA200 current rate of ascent, annualized, is about 70 or 75%.  By comparison, the square root trend extrapolates to a doubling in 2019.

[figmentofmyass]

another bump for the native russians to chime in.....

The translation is quite confusing

from what i can glean, he's reinforcing his earlier opinion that anything below the weekly ma200 will bounce very hard---same as 2015 he says. i'm very curious what the last sentence means though. something about what would make him give up as a bull? does he mean closing below the ma200? i thought the long term basis for his analysis was the sqrt trend though.....

[exstasie]

A lot of people (too many?) are focusing on the weekly 200 MA but breaking it doesn't really matter. In October 2008, Amazon stock broke below it for around 3 months (around  $50 at the time), 1 year later the price had almost tripled.

No indicator (moving average or otherwise) is a guarantee of support or resistance. It's just a matter of probability. It's obvious the 200-week MA (along with the 200-day and 20-week) are important for traders and investors, whether because of a self-fulfilling prophecy or otherwise. Markets often respect these levels, including Bitcoin.

The first data on the 200-week MA in Bitcoin markets came out in 2014. The only times the market ever tested it (twice in 2015), it held. With such limited price history (2010 on), it's hard to ignore that.