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16321  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 10:30:27 PM

Did you have any comment on this, ChinkyEyes?  Presumably, you watched it before posting the link?  Just the title is questionable "crypto", but I did not watch it, yet to see whether there is any content worth 26 minutes of my attention.  Can you give some sense of it besides merely saying that it is "on Bloomberg"?

Not really worth watching unfortunately. I watch the mainstream media because I am curious what they are feeding the average joe. What I take away from the debate if you can even call it, is that the average joe will probably be confused and stay away from crypto until the next bull run starts.

Don't get me wrong.  I definitely appreciate links that are provided, especially when they have to do with bitcoin price dynamics, even if they are couched in "crypto" terms, but sometimes it seems to be the duty of the more knowledgeable/experienced of us to provide a context for the links that we are providing, including the fact that mainstream media is likely continuing to engage in ongoing and sometimes subtle deceptions whether they are referring to bitcoin or crypto more broadly.  So, in that regard, sometimes it can be quite useful to comment upon the nonsense that they are spewing, just to later show how wrong they were and how bad their intentions seem to be.
16322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 10:08:48 PM

At first I was wondering who those were in the picture, but I see that the picture is a modified version from the article (after clicking on it).   Adam Back and Samson Mow, respectively.
16323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 10:02:20 PM
In Bitcoin we do not have a massive adoption, it is progressing correctly, but it will take a few years, institutional investors are close, we need to optimize and make the process simpler for everyday users.

If we compare it with a Smartphone it was invented in 1992, the first good Smartphone came on the market in 2005, with a number of users of 2%, 7 years later 54%, 11 years later 81%, today no one doubts that a Smartphone be a very useful gadget, Bitcoin will not take so long.


I think that your ideas are good in this post; however, it seems a bit problematic when you are describing matters in terms of "we need" blah blah blah...

Starts to sound like some kind of shilling piece that suggests that bitcoin has various deficiencies, when it does not.

Even though you chose some awkward language to express your ideas, you seem to recognize that development takes time, and perhaps there is a bit more of an organic process that is taking place in bitcoin.  Surely, bitcoin is in very early stages, and there are all kinds of developments and adoptions that are taking place and being experimented upon, so in that regard, many of us can appreciate that "rome was not built in a day."   Wink
16324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 09:55:26 PM
3500 didn't hold for too long - rally continues to 3600? Wee!

Protip: Using anything other than Bitstamp price is not going to win you any merits Wink

I'm not here to "win merits" dude  Grin

Are you here to provide meaningful information in order that other wall observer thread participants would be able to relate to what you are posting without being mislead?   Tongue Tongue
16325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 09:46:22 PM

Did you have any comment on this, ChinkyEyes?  Presumably, you watched it before posting the link?  Just the title is questionable "crypto", but I did not watch it, yet to see whether there is any content worth 26 minutes of my attention.  Can you give some sense of it besides merely saying that it is "on Bloomberg"?
16326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 09:38:14 PM

You could have tried typing "major newses" and even shown the reference as "alevlaslo" which would have had an eye rolling effect built into it.

 Tongue
16327  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 09:12:19 PM
2% up. Almost 3400
Fasten your seat belts guys.

If we get through 3500 our Target is about 5k

To me, it seems that there are several resistance points getting back to $5k, so $5k is not likely to be a cake walk, even though I certainly would like some bears to be rekt in the short-term.
16328  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 09:04:14 PM
Is JayJuanGee or Micgoossens considered dumbest money in the thread?  There was also that one guy who thought he was "buying the dip" at $15k, but I don't remember his name and don't feel like scrolling back.


Well, there is this one guy named roach, who sold his whole stash of BTC in the sub $600 price arena, and he bought gold and silver.  Thereafter, he has been lecturing how bitcoin is and was not a good investment.

Lot's off opportunity costs have been lost upon this roach fella, and even worse case scenario, at today's prices, he would still be up more than 5x if he had just hung onto his bitcoin.

Probably roach would be considered pretty close to the dumbest money who is actively participating in this particular thread.

I cannot really speak for Micteam because I am not sure if his back patting story really plays out because in some sense he is suggesting that he gets his BTC through gambling, which seems way too good to be true.

However, my own story is that I started buying at $1,200 in late 2013 and bought down to about $200 in late 2014 and throughout 2015, and had an average of about $500 per BTC before my phone got force ported and some other hacks that caused losses in my BTC in early 2017 and raised my BTC price average to around $750-ish.  I am not sure exactly my BTC average at the moment, but it is likely in around the $750-ish arena.

Surely I have made a few mistakes along the way in my BTC investment, strategies and practices (and even though I know that you are a trolling bafoon on this particular naming names point), yet I am not sure why I would be considered within any kind of close approximation of "dumb money" when I have an incrementalism system of selling BTC on the way up and buying BTC on the way down that seems to be quite profitable - even if only in a kind of insurance creation sense - even at today's prices and even with some mistakes that I have made along the way that have increased some of my costs. 

By the way, even though I type a lot, I don't reveal all of my finances and all of my strategies, even though I give broad general ideas about what I do as a kind of brainstorming exercise rather than any kind of attempt to induce anyone to emulate my practices.  Ultimately, I welcome guys and gal, here to engage with me about my various disclosures of strategies, and sometimes, I can be critical about the stated strategies of others, but to get back to the initial point, Roach, your purported strategy to sell BTC in the sub $600 range, not to buy back BTC, to invest in PMs and to participate in this thread that is about BTC price dynamics with your frequently off-topic nonsense seems quite high in level of dumbness of person and dumness of money.
16329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 08:26:52 PM
Ok, from the poll it seems that most people thinks we have not yet reached the bottom. So... maybe we have?

I would say all the weak hands are already gone. I would be more worried about weak whales now.

Talking about whales... it has been some time since Bitcoin doesn't have any new whale, has it?

I mean, people like Tim Draper during the past bear market, etc....

Any new one this year?


I thought that we have been saying that all the weak hands had been shook since about $10k, but for some reason, it seems that there are more weak hands that are shakeable.
16330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 08:20:33 PM
I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.

I’ve got a stash of XRP, nowhere near as much as my bitcoin HODLINGS but would be nice to see it moon in the future.

I don't see any considerable ecosystem benefits of various shitcoins pumpening, even if my personal holdings might go up because of such pumpenings.

I understand that it is likely inevitable that several shitcoins are going to pump in the coming years, and that is why we cannot have nice things, and at minimum it will take 20 years for a decent portion of the population to recognize the differentiating value in bitcoin, and more realistically it will take longer than 20 years, perhaps approaching 50 years (I will either be dead or close to dead by then, so if I am posting in this thread, then there is some kind of AI going on or my account has been hacked).   
I don't get why you see the differentiating value and the potential value proposition of altcoins as mutually exclusive.

Your characterization of my position seems a bit off.

I consider that there is a strong pull in BTC's value proposition in terms of the creation of sound money.  No other coin comes even close to that even though with the passage of time, there could be some coins that come close to that, yet a vast majority of my problem with various other coins is that they attempt to suggest that either there are defects in bitcoin that they resolve or that they are superior than bitcoin in various ways that suggest superior sound money as compared with bitcoin.

Sure, some of the coins talk about technical improvements and other likely less significant mumbo jumbo that could, in the longer term play out to be useful to humanity, and may also be absorbed into bitcoin at the primary layer or  some other layer... Yet, for me, the sound money aspect remains the distinction of bitcoin, not the other various quasi-centralized distractions of other coins.  

So, yeah other coins are likely providing various  values, but other coins is not the topic of this thread, so it is totally appropriate to completely and cursorily dismiss them all as shit coins, even if they may be providing some various alleged kinds of values.  Who gives a shit?  

The topic of the thread is bitcoin, and as I mentioned one of the differentiating values that bitcoin provides is sound money, and frequently, I see that either on purpose or accidentally, people get caught up in various other value narratives, and whether those other value narratives works out or not, again, who gives a shit, except that a vast majority of other coins try to proclaim themselves as superior to bitcoin or replacing some kind of meaningful bitcoin function, when they do not in terms of soundness of money analysis.

Bitcoin will be the future currency, where equity 2.0 will be given in the form of altcoins that are traded against Bitcoin.

Seems likely, yes.

Although I guess the current market makes it extremely hard to see this future, I don't think that altcoins are generally speaking shitcoins. Even if some 99% of them in fact are right now.

Maybe, but again, who cares?

If there are some reasons to buy a little alt coin here and there, then anyone can make those kinds of choices to invest into the various other projects, and there could be some value there, of course.

Companies won't really be able to tie their equity to Bitcoin due to its volatility, but they could very well fix a shitcoin to their annual, or at some point even real-time revenue, operating costs, profits, inventory, etc., which will vastly improve the tools available to value investors who now have to rely on quarterly reports that may or may not be cooked. Just to name one tiny future niche that will be fulfilled by blockchain eventually.

Yes there are more than 7 billion people, so a lot of various use cases that may or may not connect to bitcoin, of course.

The amount of shitcoins right now is no different from the amount of shitsites during the dotcom bubble (probably much less since we're nowhere near peak). Doesn't mean that everything was shit.

I doubt that I am saying that every other coin is shit, and of course, we are stuck with some necessity to discuss the dynamics of various alt coins because there is some connection in terms of money movement in the BTC space, and likely some symbiotic relationship with the back and forth of the alt coin price movements and even pumps, dumbs, and scams.  Yet, I don't see any reason to get into long discussions of the various value propositions of shitcoins.  Take it to some other thread except to the extent that it either relates to BTC or BTC price dynamics, no?

Same story with every bubble, keep an open mind or you'll miss the bigger picture due to the hordes of incompetence, money grabs and outright scams.

Are you suggesting that I am not keeping an open mind, merely because I don't want to clutter my mind with distractions into the investigation of possible value propositions of more than 2,000 other crypto projects, aka shit coins, or maybe I am supposed to focus on the top 10 or top 20 or look at some kind of criteria to assess the extent to which these various shit coins might be offering some kind of value?  

Let's say for example there are 5-10 good alt coin projects that end up either playing a very significant role in the crypto space or supplanting various BTC use cases because of their superiority.  Why does it matter that I start to pay attention now (and study them) or wait 5-10 years when such supplantation becomes more obvious?  Am I missing out on something?  Knowledge?  Investment opportunity?  What am I missing, exactly?  Don't I get enough exposure to learning about them, just through osmosis with my already ongoing involvement in paying attention to bitcoin?
16331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 01:34:29 AM
I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.

I’ve got a stash of XRP, nowhere near as much as my bitcoin HODLINGS but would be nice to see it moon in the future.

I don't see any considerable ecosystem benefits of various shitcoins pumpening, even if my personal holdings might go up because of such pumpenings.

I understand that it is likely inevitable that several shitcoins are going to pump in the coming years, and that is why we cannot have nice things, and at minimum it will take 20 years for a decent portion of the population to recognize the differentiating value in bitcoin, and more realistically it will take longer than 20 years, perhaps approaching 50 years (I will either be dead or close to dead by then, so if I am posting in this thread, then there is some kind of AI going on or my account has been hacked).   

There won't be any AI or hacking, son! May Almighty bless you with a few hundred years of life!

Lots of peeps do not want to think about death, but so far everyone that has ever lived has died in about less than 80 years - frequently quite lower than that, and a few lucky ones might still have some energy and wits in the extreme cases of 100-ish.
16332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2018, 01:07:13 AM

One special thing about UNO is that the daily volume is around $6000.... There are very few shitcoins that haven't been unlisted with such low volume. It's definitely a rarity.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/unobtanium/

Trading volume isn't the basis of this particular asset's value.

What is crypto ? A synthesised monetary asset. Like amoxycillin is a synthesised antobiotic that means that you don't need to eat a tone of garlic every day but can still benefit from certain of its properties. They therefore need a solid archetype behind them to survive.

UNO is the fine-art market of crypto. It seems to have found the "sweet spot" between sufficient scarcity to be attractive and sufficient liquidity to be actively traded.

I saw people talking about this the other day, sure it is just the 'flavor of the month'?

UNO was launched in 2014. There are no other "scarecity" assets in the crypto field that go back that far which have performed as well. This is against bitcoin by the way, not USD.

You have pumped that shit before in this thread, asshole.

You should be ashamed of yourself.   Roll Eyes

[edited out]

GTFOOH with your shitcoin.
Again.. infofront beat me to it.

Hey, don't knock shitcoins. Tribalism aside, Bitcoin would be nowhere without them. Precisely no---where. Anyone who's ever followed correlations between dominance and BTC price will have seen that by now.

For that reason, I promote shitcoins to bitcoiners and bitcoin to shitcoiners. They don't like it but they need to swallow it Wink

You are full of shit, tokonormal, and surely, there is a bit of reductio ad absurdum going on with your attempted lame points or maybe we would categorize it better as misplaced concreteness?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
16333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2018, 10:13:45 PM
I bought in after the cyprus bubble, I said to myself back then I'd cash some in at 40k. Then the Dec bubble happened that same year. After that popped, I said to myself "next bubble I will sell some then buy in again. Problem is I was calling a bubble at 1800 then 2800 the 5000 and so on, basically I can't tell the top of a bubble for shit, so I'll keep waiting for 40k. Moral of story, wait till your target is hit, because picking the top of a bubble ain't easy, and if you sell too early it's likely you'll panic buy back in.

This is my long-term stash by the way, I do have other amounts that I buy sell more frequently and also for shit coins.

That's why you also don't sell major amounts, such as more than 50 % because you will run out of bitcoin, if you sell too soon in order to sell more.
16334  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2018, 10:11:10 PM
I really don't understand why everyone is so bothered by the decline and theoretical losses at the moment. Yes, it is not pleasant for the hodlers, but I don't agree that we will never recover or it will take decades. Let's recall year 2017, how it started. In early January we were close to a new ATH. Then suddenly the bank of China threatened to ban bitcoin exchanges on multiple occasions. The price fell from 1100 to 700 in hours and didn't recover for 2 months. Back then over 90% of all trades were made in China exchanges. Everyone was scared what will happen (including myself). Next we got denial for ETF. Next Bitfinex stopped withdrawals if fiat and suspicions of bancruptcy was in the air. Next Ver wanted a fork (BU). Next we had a fork in August. Next, we had the final ban in China. Next another fork in November was cancelled. Next Ver and Wu sold massively bitcoins to pump bcash. In all these bad news we were about 8K! The only good news CBOE and CME futures helped to reach 20K. So, you are telling me that in 3 years we can't reach again 8K? It is not realistic even if ETF is denied for ever and CW is dumping regularly his stolen bitcoins! Bitcoin market is way more agile and fast forward 10x any other asset. The most logical thing is in Dec. 2020 (after the halvening) to be above 10K.

Your whole summary is that bitcoin kept going up during a bull market, and it did not matter what negative things happened, bitcoin kept going up.  Yes, that summarizes 2017.

We are now in the opposite scenario, so the likelihood is down, no matter what happens, down.

What we are waiting for is a reversal, and such reversal could take 3 months to 2 years to play out.
16335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2018, 10:05:45 PM
I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.

I’ve got a stash of XRP, nowhere near as much as my bitcoin HODLINGS but would be nice to see it moon in the future.

I don't see any considerable ecosystem benefits of various shitcoins pumpening, even if my personal holdings might go up because of such pumpenings.

I understand that it is likely inevitable that several shitcoins are going to pump in the coming years, and that is why we cannot have nice things, and at minimum it will take 20 years for a decent portion of the population to recognize the differentiating value in bitcoin, and more realistically it will take longer than 20 years, perhaps approaching 50 years (I will either be dead or close to dead by then, so if I am posting in this thread, then there is some kind of AI going on or my account has been hacked).   
16336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2018, 10:16:32 AM
Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges.  

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Yes, that is a good strategy. I also use this strategy and I have been relaxed about the decline. I have started to scale back in now. It has all been house money for years now as I took out my original investment many moons ago.

Whatever happened to rpietila ?? He had a castle and went insane...or kinda lost the plot? He had some game or virtual world going as well. He made some really good posts years ago.
On an extremely volatile asset, assuming the price returns to the price at which you bought it, there is a trading strategy that makes a profit, as opposed to buying and holding (which would not profit in our example).
Here's a simple explanation https://blog.enigma.co/is-there-a-free-lunch-in-the-crypto-markets-c4aa331443f1

Imagine you start with $1,000, $500 in stock and $500 in cash. Suppose the stock halves in price the first day. This gives you a $750 portfolio with $250 in stock and $500 in cash. This is now lopsided in favor of cash. You rebalance by withdrawing $125 from the cash account to buy stock. This leaves you with a newly balanced mix of $375 in stock and $375 in cash.
Now repeat. The next day, let’s say the stock doubles in price. The $375 in stock jumps to $750. With the $375 in the cash account, you have $1,125…
… After a dramatic plunge, the stock’s price is back to where it began. A buy-and-hold investor would have no profit at all. Shannon’s investor has made $125.


If you do a little math, you'll find that transaction fees will kill this trading strategy.   If you pay transaction fees on the order of 0.2% (like crypto exchange fees), then balancing small moves like 5 or 10 percent will actually lose you money.  The asset has to be very volatile, and it's only worth rebalancing after big moves such as in the example.
Also, you're going to lose money in a bear market, unless you have the resources to hang on for years until the asset's price returns to where you bought it (if it ever does).

I don't believe in rebalancing merely for the sake of it.... gotta be more strategic than that, and just customize to your own sense of the matter.  For example, in bitcoin, we are likely in an exponential s curve adoption that could take 20 or more years to play out, and so in that regard, it likely does not hurt to let some of the profits ride in bitcoin, merely because it is not a mature asset. 

Furthermore, like me signature says, I don't see much of any reason to place much value in alt coins, because they are not really offering anything like bitcoin, and putting value in bitcoin already makes the sound money hedging bet against dollar related investments.
16337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2018, 04:32:30 AM

Oh wow...No I did not hear about it. Thanks for the link.

I hadn't heard about that either. Good to hear he's doing alright though.


I don’t know if he is doing alright.  If he was doing alright then he probably would be participating in this forum, but his last post were filled with a lot of crazy talk and he was also accused of scamming people out of their money in some crypto game, too.  I don’t really follow, just going based on my memory of some of the last post that I saw from him and about him.
16338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2018, 02:46:40 AM
Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges. 

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0
16339  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2018, 02:32:57 AM
Adjusting my market positions. I set a take profit limit on the last of my short BCH, and I'm getting out of BTC too as soon as the dust settles. I don't want to spend the holidays looking at candles on a screen. I mean, unless there's a real reason for it  Grin

If possible, whales like to strike during the holidays... just to ruin dee moo. 

16340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2018, 10:14:40 PM
What if the price goes down to $2000 and then back to $3000 and then back to $2000 and then to $4000 and then a big crash to $1000 and then back to $2000 and then back to $3000 and then back to $2000 and then to $3000 and then to $4000 and then to $3000 again and then down to $2000 and then up to $3000 and then to $1000 and then to $1500 and then $1000 [ETH FLIPS BTC HERE]  and then down to $800 and then $1000 then $900, $800, $700, $600, $500, $400, $300, $200, $100, $50, $10, $1, $0.01, [Delisted from Binance]



My post history is mainly just retarded shilling and trolling.


What if?HuhHuhHuh??



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