Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges. 

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

[nikauforest]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges. 

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Yes, that is a good strategy. I also use this strategy and I have been relaxed about the decline. I have started to scale back in now. It has all been house money for years now as I took out my original investment many moons ago.

Whatever happened to rpietila ?? He had a castle and went insane...or kinda lost the plot? He had some game or virtual world going as well. He made some really good posts years ago.

[Toxic2040]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges. 

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.
I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

I found much of what he said fascinating..when he wasn't frying balls. Later..not so much. Here Jjg..some light reading for in between candle watching..
http://consc.net/event/reef/huntkicking.pdf

[xhomerx10]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges.  

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Yes, that is a good strategy. I also use this strategy and I have been relaxed about the decline. I have started to scale back in now. It has all been house money for years now as I took out my original investment many moons ago.

Whatever happened to rpietila ?? He had a castle and went insane...or kinda lost the plot? He had some game or virtual world going as well. He made some really good posts years ago.

 You didn't hear?  His castle burned down.



credit: https://btcmanager.com/burning-long-term-holders-bitcoin-castle-marks-beginning-new-era/

[infofront]

Silver bubble continues to break downwards...Edit: Good support at $5 / ounce so price due to fall another 66% then stabilize

Who could have possibly guessed the zionist kike in the thread would *gasp* tell lies to try and trick the goyim from acquiring real money at the floor and instead attempt to persuade them into buying imaginary, valueless digital tokens instead?  They are pretty much out of room for further metals manipulation to the downside in the long view, but short term, unsustainable tricks are always possible:

The handle has fallen too far. Generally, the handle can only retrace about 1/3 of the way down the right side of the cup. In the case of silver, it's plunged ~70%, not adjusted for inflation.

[NJB18]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges. 

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.
I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

I found much of what he said fascinating..when he wasn't frying balls. Later..not so much. Here Jjg..some light reading for in between candle watching..
http://consc.net/event/reef/huntkicking.pdf

If only I read this and realized the risks earlier. I continued to hodl nearly all my bitcoins and alts. And now it seems I need a job in 2019.

Do you people think NASDAQ will still list bitcoin?

[nikauforest]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges.  

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Yes, that is a good strategy. I also use this strategy and I have been relaxed about the decline. I have started to scale back in now. It has all been house money for years now as I took out my original investment many moons ago.

Whatever happened to rpietila ?? He had a castle and went insane...or kinda lost the plot? He had some game or virtual world going as well. He made some really good posts years ago.

 You didn't hear?  His castle burned down.



credit: https://btcmanager.com/burning-long-term-holders-bitcoin-castle-marks-beginning-new-era/

Oh wow...No I did not hear about it. Thanks for the link.

[Searing]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges. 

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.
I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

I found much of what he said fascinating..when he wasn't frying balls. Later..not so much. Here Jjg..some light reading for in between candle watching..
http://consc.net/event/reef/huntkicking.pdf

If only I read this and realized the risks earlier. I continued to hodl nearly all my bitcoins and alts. And now it seems I need a job in 2019.

Do you people think NASDAQ will still list bitcoin?

Why I panic sold 13 BTC like a small 9-year-old girl (with much sobbing). The whole idea of crypto was to retire 3 years early (2.5 years to go) before full retirement on traditional investments and

social security at 66 years and 2 months. (thus still 'hoarding' crypto....was mining..that boat sunk, along with altcoin angle. Sigh.)

As much as I like crypto and BTC etc and HODL mode, I like not working for any 'idiot boss' much better.

Did sell ASIC equipment for 4 BTC, so my 'panic 9-year-old sell' of 13 BTC is now only 9 BTC.

Chump or Champ. I'm always in one camp or the other camp.

I swear, I should make all decisions on cyrpto with a 'coin toss', I'd likely do 'much better'

FML

[infofront]

You didn't hear?  His castle burned down.



credit: https://btcmanager.com/burning-long-term-holders-bitcoin-castle-marks-beginning-new-era/

Oh wow...No I did not hear about it. Thanks for the link.

I hadn't heard about that either. Good to hear he's doing alright though.

[infofront]

[realr0ach]

You didn't hear?  His castle burned down.

https://i.imgur.com/4I893SE.jpg

credit: https://btcmanager.com/burning-long-term-holders-bitcoin-castle-marks-beginning-new-era/

Oh wow...No I did not hear about it. Thanks for the link.

I hadn't heard about that either. Good to hear he's doing alright though.

Hmm, doesn't look like the flames hit the required 1800F degrees to melt the physical silver inside.  Not too sure about the survival of the bitcoin private keys on those computers though.

[PoolMinor]

[nanobtc]

Pietilä's castle burning was mentioned here a while back, but I know it can be hard to keep up. Here's a Google Translate of Estonian news about it.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=et&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.delfi.ee%2Fnews%2Fpaevauudised%2Feesti%2Fsoome-bitcoini-paruni-eestis-asuvat-kinnisvara-laastavad-salaparased-polengud-alles-asja-poles-maha-malla-mois%3Fid%3D83721469&edit-text=

[JayJuanGee]

You didn't hear?  His castle burned down.



credit: https://btcmanager.com/burning-long-term-holders-bitcoin-castle-marks-beginning-new-era/

Oh wow...No I did not hear about it. Thanks for the link.

I hadn't heard about that either. Good to hear he's doing alright though.

I don’t know if he is doing alright.  If he was doing alright then he probably would be participating in this forum, but his last post were filled with a lot of crazy talk and he was also accused of scamming people out of their money in some crypto game, too.  I don’t really follow, just going based on my memory of some of the last post that I saw from him and about him.

[HairyMaclairy]

Guys, guys, this isn't a normal shit bump, this looks like the beginning of a natural fucking recovery. Have we finished swimming in the shit?

I'm putting the 1 yes in the poll.

The bottom is fucking in.

Sorry dude we need to get through January tax time first.

[birr]

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges.  

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Yes, that is a good strategy. I also use this strategy and I have been relaxed about the decline. I have started to scale back in now. It has all been house money for years now as I took out my original investment many moons ago.

Whatever happened to rpietila ?? He had a castle and went insane...or kinda lost the plot? He had some game or virtual world going as well. He made some really good posts years ago.

On an extremely volatile asset, assuming the price returns to the price at which you bought it, there is a trading strategy that makes a profit, as opposed to buying and holding (which would not profit in our example).
Here's a simple explanation https://blog.enigma.co/is-there-a-free-lunch-in-the-crypto-markets-c4aa331443f1

Imagine you start with $1,000, $500 in stock and $500 in cash. Suppose the stock halves in price the first day. This gives you a $750 portfolio with $250 in stock and $500 in cash. This is now lopsided in favor of cash. You rebalance by withdrawing $125 from the cash account to buy stock. This leaves you with a newly balanced mix of $375 in stock and $375 in cash.
Now repeat. The next day, let’s say the stock doubles in price. The $375 in stock jumps to $750. With the $375 in the cash account, you have $1,125…
… After a dramatic plunge, the stock’s price is back to where it began. A buy-and-hold investor would have no profit at all. Shannon’s investor has made $125.

If you do a little math, you'll find that transaction fees will kill this trading strategy.   If you pay transaction fees on the order of 0.2% (like crypto exchange fees), then balancing small moves like 5 or 10 percent will actually lose you money.  The asset has to be very volatile, and it's only worth rebalancing after big moves such as in the example.
Also, you're going to lose money in a bear market, unless you have the resources to hang on for years until the asset's price returns to where you bought it (if it ever does).

[HairyMaclairy]

I'm fucking feeling it, shits happening.

In your defence we do have a descending wedge reversal pattern (unconfirmed).  I just think it happens to be a trap.



https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal

I don’t think we will see $6k again before 2020.  

Agreed it's prudent to watch our hopium intake, Hairy, but 2020 seems awfully long for a return to $6k. Granted, we had a nearly 2-year downturn after Mt Gox from 2014-5 with little to no good news, but as far as fundamentals go, 2019 seems ripe for recovery.

What are your assumptions on big ticket items? To name a few expected in the first half of 2019:

Van Eck/CBOE ETF (admittedly low chances)
Bakkt
Fidelity Digital Assets
Nasdaq Futures

Are you thinking these things won't happen or rather they simply won't make much of a speculative difference? Are you weighing your prediction primarily on prior halving cycles? Are you correlating with global stock market expectations?

I worry that speculative interest is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy of chart analysis and pattern matching. The 2014 overlay to 2018 is eerily similar, yes, but is this simply a case of humans seeking solace in pattern matching?

Meanwhile, the lightning network is exponentially expanding, BCash is conveniently self-immolating, blockchain investment and employment numbers are steadily increasing, etc etc.

Sure, miners seem SOL, nothing new there; but I suspect new miners will find new places to slurp up cheap/stranded power, further decentralizing the network.

I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  Keep in mind that $6k is almost a doubling in price. 

[Biodom]

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.

Sorry, most humans do not use TA to achieve consensus on price.
In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).
The only way I have seen examples of large money being made is by placing reasonably large bets (that are not portfolio crushing if they don't not work out, but extremely rewarding when they do work out) on less likely outcomes where you have some legally obtained informational advantage (say, you analyzed a particular situation from an angle that everybody else missed).
Example: Soros' bet against the pound, etc.

Personally, apart from btc, I am thinking of learning (or re-learning) how to short equities.
There will be lots and lots of opportunities to make money this way in the next 10-12 years.
Index funds are so dead in the water or worse going forward.

 

[HairyMaclairy]

Maybe I should say that TA is used in the absence of fundamentals

And fundamentals and informational advantages in Bitcoin are very few and far between.

That makes Bitcoin pure from a TA perspective

[criptix]

The next 24 hours are extremely critical.

If i call a bottom now we will likely crash at least 50%.