The 2 year yield is <3.99% right now. Basically it dropped 100bps since last week. And last week we were expecting more rate hikes... now its the complete opposite. It seems there will be actually cuts at the end of the year.

So far GS and other banks are predicting this. No word yet from JPow. We didn't get a bailout but what they are proposing is very similar to a bailout and you know that the tax payer is going to be paying for it. Until we get the next meeting we won't know for sure.

The gas fees lately have been fair. Paying $1 for a ERC20 or less than $1 to send ETH is fair. Most likely it won’t go much lower. Sure it was huge yesterday during the USDC mess but usually it’s not like that.

During 2021 there were times when you had to pay $50 just to send some USDT around, that was horrible. Right now we are past that since we got many L2 platforms which took a load off the main chain.

Besides Circle, I don’t know of any exchange that used SVB for crypto exchange deposits. They were mostly involved in tech and start ups,  not crypto.

The large crypto banks were Silvergate and SignatureBank and guess what? Hours ago SignatureBank for some reason was also shut down by regulators. Didn’t know they were undergoing a bank run. Very suspicious.

Most people in my country stay poor because they are over the heads in debt. Basically they are maxed out with everything. They live pay check to pay check and a lot of their money goes to interest alone.

They got mortgages, 2 car loans, credit cards, lines of credit, etc. With rates so high and inflation so high, I am not surprised they are suffering. And their wages barely increased. Not a good way to live.

The issue here is that banks don’t keep the same amount of their deposits as their liabilities. Basically if they keep $1 of deposits for $100 worth of loans, what do they expect would happen when all of a sudden a small amount of people were to withdraw. Obviously the money wouldn’t be there.

I think their error was they should of scaled out of those MBS which lost valued earlier when they knew the fed would raise rates and they wouldn’t be in this mess to begin with. Or get some MBS with shorter maturities instead of 10 year ones.

Yes it’s pumping because this might be the fed pivot we were all waiting for. Bonds are also rallying and same with the equity futures.

It’s not a true pivot but GS said that the fed will most likely not hike rates at all next meeting while a couple days ago they might of hiked 50bps. This is why the 2 year lost like 75 bps. Hence why risk on markets are rallying.

I don't think they will be bailed out. The FDIC will do its best and perhaps when the assets are liquidated people might get 80-90% of their funds back. The issue is if a larger bank such as Schwab gets close to defaulted and then the fed will have no reason but to bail them out AND cut interest rates at the same time since the markets obviously cannot handle it.

Even SVB was large, it wasn't large enough on the fed radar to make it signiicant. Most likely by Monday we might get news that its taken over by one of the larger banks.

Its funny that when this thread was started the OP was worrying about tether depegging but instead the complete opposite happened and it actually "overpegged" because people were selling USDC into Tether.

This is proof that unless you are holding Bitcoin or Ethereum in a secure cold storage wallet then nothing is really secure out there. Who knows what bank will fail next and cause another depegging or exchange shutdown.

I think both of these banks failed for the same reasons. They had way too much assets invested in long yield, low paying bonds. They had to sell them at a loss to make up for customer deposits. And when word of this got out, it caused a bank run and the bank basically decided it would be smarter to shut down or be taken over by FDIC then sell more bonds at a loss and create an even bigger hole.

I don't think they did anything shady. They basically were caught in the crossfire of what happens when interest rates go up. Issue is that next week SignatureBank can be next, along with FRC and WAL which also had crazy swings in stock price and got halted multiple times throughout the day.

Its almost ~24 hours since it first started to depeg and its currently around 0.95 which is pretty bad. When tether depegged it never stayed depegged this long. The lowest was around 0.85-0.88 on some exchanges.

Reports are coming out that the arbitragurs cannot redeem any more USDC until Monday because the Signature Bank SegNet is overloaded and cannot handle the volume. While Tether is still chugging along.

For those that don't know. Silicon Bank was 1 of 6 banks which held 25% of Circle's USDC reserves. 75% were held in short term treasuries but 25% in actual banks. The problem is Circle doesn't want to state how much they have in SVB and there is panic ongoing.

Currently looking at their redemptions looks like 9-10 figures worth is getting redeemed for fiat.

https://etherscan.io/tokentxns?a=0x55fe002aeff02f77364de339a1292923a15844b8

Looking at various exchanges, you can now buy USDC for 0.96 on Gemini and other exchanges, it wicked 0.95 a few times. Going to get worse and worse as the weekend goes on and the SVB situation is not resolved.

Even some Defi platforms have people dumping USDC / DAI for USDT. Not looking good.

Choas across all the markets. Silicon Valley bank has collapsed in a manner of hours due to a bank run caused by the fed hikes. Right now there are half a dozen banks with double digit losses trading like low cap alt-coins. The worse of this is Charles Schwab. And I think the fed will finally step in to protect it.

The fed doesn't care about Silvergate or Silicon Valley but Schwab is pretty big. I think any day now we will get the pivot and all markets will rally which are considered risk-on. Sure inflation is bad but I don't think the fed wants a major bank collapsing sending shockwaves across the entire financial system.

If the fed pivots then Crypto and stocks should rally. The hint is in the bond markets. Currently they are rallying like crazy.

I fixed the ticker, the correct ticker is SIVB.

Today pre-market the stock was down another -60%, it had to get halted to avoid a melt up. Its still halted and the company announced they are looking to get taken over. And the contagion is spreading to other regional banks like FRC and SBNY. SBNY is SignatureBank which is probably the only decent crypto bank left. If that bank goes under, then its not good for crypto overall.

Even some of the larger names like Schwab are having a -10% day. Like that Michael Burry said, this might be this generations Enron moment.

Tether won’t depeg, don’t believe what you read on the internet. Sure there are times when there was massive panic and it depegged slightly but usually after a few minutes it returned to its original 1:1 value.

These stablecoin providers have no reason to rip you off. Most of these US dollars are held in short term treasuries, they are making billions of dollars per year for doing nothing, why scam people?

So today NYAG decided to go after Huobi and says ETH is a security. Do you agree to this?

From what I understand, Bitcoin is not a security because it’s POW and because it wasn’t pre-mined. Satoshi never had an ICO of any kind. He started to mine at block 1 and when the network activity took off he stopped mining shortly after.

ETH is tricky because right now it’s not POS and when it was created it had an ICO. Price was like $0.50 per ETH in 2014 or around.

So what do you think?

Basically what he is proposing is to make a synthetic US dollar pretty much. Basically back in the old days of Bitmex which was inverse perps, you would open up a short 1x leverage using your BTC collateral and it means you pretty much sold Bitcoin and you were hedged.

This might work but it would be very very difficult to implement. There is lots that can go wrong. In my opinion it’s better than what Luna did with its algo stablecoins which we all knew wouldn’t survive during a bear market.

So the FTX contagion is finally hitting the regional banks. All of a sudden today SVB bank, a top 20 commercial bank lost like -80% value in a single day.

This comes the day before Silvergate bank said it’s going to liquidate. I think what happened was that many customers of SVB knew that a large portion of its books was in the mortgage backed securities market and these were at a loss due to fed interest rate hikes. Exactly what took down Silvergate. They had a lot of their assets in government bonds which they had to sell at a loss to make up for liquidity. Many on SVBI knew this and it underwent a bank run.

Earlier the bank realized the MBS loss and was raising for money to generate liquidity. However like Silvergate, this will cause even more panic and more bank runs and they will have to sell even more MBS at a loss. And it’s possible this huge bank might be another Silvergate bank.

The mess that SBF started is just nuts… many really must hate that guy.

Yes it was delayed again, According to,

https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-registration-deadline-pushed-for-another-month

The Registration deadline is pushed to April 6 and the distribution deadline is push from Septh 30th to Oct 31st.

All these delays must be driving the creditors mad.

Apparently MtGox is not the only one we need to worry about. The Silk Road coins are on the move by the US government. There is 40K BTC and 10K was already sent to Coinbase. Most likely they will be doing some twap and in a few days or weeks they will send the rest.

Still getting mixed reports about MtGox. Many are speculating it will get delayed again and payouts for later in the year.

Kraken has been out for years. They are one of the oldest exchanges, only exchange older is perhaps Bitstamp. They have been thru many bear markets and came out alive anytime. How long has FTX been in business? Since 2019 or so.

Not only that SBF himself also was new to crypto, he started maybe in 2017 or so. Didn't go thru many bear markets. Hence he leveraged himself because he didn't think it was possible for altcoins go undergo -99% and hence why this implosion happened.