There is $1,800,000 in there. We should have a campaign underway to make Bitcoin merchants, casino gambling sites, and exchanges play with the Lightning Network. ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif) Where can we find some good guides for merchants to set up Lightning to experiment with, and what are the channels to find community tech support? https://www.longhash.com/news/lightnings-crazy-fast-growthToday, over 450 BTC ($1,800,000) is held in Lightning Network channels -- a 100x increase in channel capacity since February. In addition, there are currently over 16,000 channels on main net -- a 16x increase in channels since February. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.longhash.com%2Fuploads%2Fimages%2F2018-12-05%2Fueditor_68752f9e05c3c8f0ed9619e82f936ab5.jpg&t=665&c=05zhToCf-e2jvw) I thought that the lightning network had both public and private channels, so in that regard, is 450 BTC a reflection of the total size? Forgive the newbie-ness of my question, but I really am unclear about how the private versus public aspects can be tracked and what kinds of numbers are reflected by such.
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Do you have a source link for that one?
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short-term shorting BTC is going to be nearly as lucrative as it was in either 2014 or 2018 Can we speculate that 2022 might be the same? Would not be unreasonable to have some tentative outline about what is possible without getting too attached to such picture, because it seems that patterns are meant to be broken in bitcoinlandia... nonetheless, I could see some kind of decent correction coming a couple of years after the next halvening.. TLDR: Cannot count on it, but can at least consider that there are decent chances of such an outline.
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Trace thinks that this is being done in part to "kill" some naughty miner-producing entity. Guess, which one? https://twitter.com/TraceMayerSome #Bitcoin miners annoyed #HODLGANG so extermination & replacement with friendlier to @bitcoincoreorg. Makes some sense to me. Can't really ever deny observations of Trace, yet there seem to be a multitude of dynamics including pushing in the shitcoin space in which the two bcash branches seem to be suffering the most, and Ethereum is experiencing decent purging of froth too. I am kind of thinking that there could be some kind of attempt to reach shitcoin singularity with the bcashes and Ethereum around the same price - maybe in the $80 arena or below... Bring them all below $20 would be nice, but that's too much wishful thinking coming out of me... and maybe as nutilah said, a $50 Ethereum might still serve some shit functions, perhaps?... A problem with Ripple is that the units are off - maybe $.08 would be an overvaluing of ripple, but there seems to sufficient enough dumb money keeping it in the $.30s, with this downfall, and just so much ongoing dumb money from there that would not likely be purged unless some of the ripple CEOs were thrown in jail, which does not seem too likely to happen, either...
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I see lots of noobs lately saying theyre gonna short the market here because its easy money. Hopefully they get their faces ripped off. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Hahahahaha Remember in about December 2014, there were all kinds of teachings about shorting the BTC market, and how you could make a killing shorting BTC. 2015 through 2017 were not good years to short BTC, even though 2014 and 2018 were. Difficult to know what December 2018 and thereafter is going to bring in terms of BTC price performance, but I am having some doubts that in the short-term shorting BTC is going to be nearly as lucrative as it was in either 2014 or 2018... but what do I know? I neither play margin nor attempt to call the short-term BTC price future.. much beyond 50/50.. but I do, sometimes, make observations. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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Too lazy to post the graph right now. But the $2800 support level was reached the day the crypto market cap broke $100 Billion. Should be a very strong support if we get there, but dropping below it could trigger a further drop due to psychological horseshit and going back to sub $100 Billion market cap. Probably some discrepancy due to different altcoin prices and amounts, but the range seems roughly accurate given that everything is tethered to BTC.
marketcap of shitcoins? lololololol >> no one cares of this ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) bwaaaahaahahha gembitz, dee psycho, seems to have a decent point here. [edited out]
Technical traders very much do. As well as the MSM following sheep. I still believe that gembitz, dee psycho, has a good point. yes the raw love&hype that propelled bitcoin to astronomical heights is not derived from marketcap data ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ~cheers In this post, you are making a new point, dippy. I thought that you were criticizing BTCMILLIONAIRE for referring to the whole market cap of cryptos, rather than focusing on bitcoin - and now it seems that you are making a different point about deceptive nature of the market cap data. I may have to bow out of this, if you cannot at least stay on point. you fuck. hahahahahaha
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Too lazy to post the graph right now. But the $2800 support level was reached the day the crypto market cap broke $100 Billion. Should be a very strong support if we get there, but dropping below it could trigger a further drop due to psychological horseshit and going back to sub $100 Billion market cap. Probably some discrepancy due to different altcoin prices and amounts, but the range seems roughly accurate given that everything is tethered to BTC.
marketcap of shitcoins? lololololol >> no one cares of this ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) bwaaaahaahahha gembitz, dee psycho, seems to have a decent point here. [edited out]
Technical traders very much do. As well as the MSM following sheep. I still believe that gembitz, dee psycho, has a good point.
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[ edited out]
I'm fully expecting not to be able to start without having funds in that region because I can't possibly expect technological progress to just cut costs to a tenth or so, despite the feasibility. It's mostly a pipe dream, but one that I've been exploring over the years since actually having the option doesn't seem impossible, albeit not very likely. I spend a good amount of time every so often thinking about what I'd do if different scenarios play out, and this is just one. There are also a few different plans to raise money without relying on Bitcorn, but I'm not sure I like the idea of being responsible for the livelihood of people as I like to just start and stop shit on a whim. I'm kind of like a moth flying from one blinking light to another, except that the light is some random shit that I start to find interesting for no particular reason. Can't do that when running a business, hence my involvement with finance. Can trade and invest without ever talking to anyone these days, what a time to be alive. It does not hurt to have relatively BIG ASS dreams about what role you would be able to play in various kinds of investment scenarios - but I do know from experience that sometimes your investment can become a lot less passive than you expected merely because of your investment and sometimes the incentives might NOT be strong enough for various principles in the investment to make sure that they are NOT undermining your financial contribution, so sometimes it can be difficult to NOT have a decent amount of involvement, even if your goals were to MOSTLY finance rather than be actively working within the project including goal setting projects.
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maths fail^ nosey fail^
What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k? I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion. If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project. You have better approximation numbers than me? fucktwat?Your Math is actually more than sensible on this one, given the assumption that $100k is the target. Keep in mind that people could be satisfied with a relatively frugal lifestyle (not living in an insanely huge mansion, while still having cash for all the high-end nerd toys one would want; the most outrageous TVs are barely 10k, desktop computers at best half etc.). Not everyone needs lambos, yachts, planes or whatever the fuck rich people tend to get. Developing a game that shits on the crappy triple A titles takes a very long time as well. And the full sum isn't going to be spent in one go, but over half a decade as a lower end estimate. That gives some wiggle room. There are also ways to be more economical about this if you're not in a rush to release a title to generate revenue. You can start small, lay a very strong foundation, then scale up with the years as necessary. What I'm saying is, is that while the 600 BTC number is a very good guess (as the 10m difference to the higher end estimate is enough to live lavishly for the rest of one's life) it can be both significantly lower or higher. AI is developing at a crazy speed as well with one crucial example being the ability of taking low resolution images and having an AI upscale it to high-resolution given enough training data (textures are one of the biggest cost factors in this industry). There also has been an AI that turned video material into a functioning game engine. Basically, the 20-50m estimate that is true for today's titles might very well be cut down to a fraction before Bitcoin hits 100k or whatever price. I may be well off, but I'm sure others have much more than me. I certainly can't move the BTC/USD market, so I'm lightyears away from being a whale. Well, you are the one who volunteered the $20million to $50 million "throw away money", so it seemed quite topical to explore the extent to which that might be reasonable for anyone to pull off and what kind of cushion anyone might consider to be prudent in order to make such a thing work decently and without too much personal psychological or fiscal stress. I doubt that you need to provide additional personal particulars in order to appreciate that you have decently thought through some of the parameters including a kind of moving trajectory.. and surely, I understand as well that you were throwing $20 to $50million out there as a ballpark thinking point... and of course, peeps could draw from other sources, too, but yeah, if the funds are mostly coming from BTC appreciation.. then gosh 600 BTC does seem to be within a kind of minimum arena (for a kind of in the ball park of realistic frugality).
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For straight up assets on a chain (tokens) this new Ravencoin thing looks like it can replace it. I'm not an user of ETH or any alts really to tell you the truth but the asset layer is what ETH is all about and there's something better, cheaper and much easier to use around nowadays. Might take a bit to mature but it's coming and ETH is going... You know a scamcoin like ETH is in trouble when: a) after years of development, still the use case and business case can't be found by anyone, including Vitalik b) zero adoption for said use case, because solution still looking for a problem that doesn't exist, and c) something is already coming along deemed as "better than" ETH (which is a joke in and of itself) ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Huh? Isn't facilitating abilities to launch scam coins a use case? Fuck.... We have seen billions of dollars raised through that scam coin, ETH enabled (facilitated), so even though I am no fan of ETH and its bullshit, there seems to be a use case, no?
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@fintechfrank https://twitter.com/fintechfrank/status/1070405218230259712SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on crypto ETF: "Don't hold your breath"
It could come tomorrow or in 20 years, she said.
"I do caution people to not live or die on when a crypto or bitcoin ETF gets approved."
"You all know that I am working on trying to convince my colleagues to have a bit more of an open mind when it comes to [crypto]."
"I am not as charming as some other people," she added.
Institutionalization will happen, she concluded.
Advice for crypto firms: "get good regulatory advice.. there are a lot of landmines...[and] we live in a society that has a lot of old securities laws...You could have the best intensions [sic]in the world and you could trip on something that you didn't mean to trip on."
Peirce said this during a fireside chat at a cryptocurrency conference in Washington D.C. I think my peepee just shrank a little. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgsCUawS.gif&t=665&c=4f-RSUPu2YsHBA) There seems to be a decent point in all of this, which is who gives a shit about an ETF? Of course, an ETF is going to bring greater financialization to BTC and likely overall be bullish on bitcoin's short term future and likely long term future, too... but it is no where near to necessary for bitcoin to remain a very good investment with strong fundamentals.
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I can already live off of my crypto earnings comfortably. The type of profits I suggested would be in a range where I could dump some 20~50m into the development of a game without even flinching about potentially never making it back.
That's a lot of BTC you're holding. That is what I was thinking too... Seems a bit more than the average WO participant, or even the elite end of the WO participants... I am thinking that seems to be in the 600BTC plus arena to be able to consider that $20 to $50 million would be a drop in the bucket, in the event that BTC went to the $100k arena. I wouldn't consider throwing 20-50m in a non-profitable hobby unless I have at least 10 times the amount so.... maybe a couple thousands of BTC (@$100K) to be comfortable with that "frivolous" spending. Of course that would be amongst the most prudent of approaches, but of course levels of prudence is going to vary, and I think that was the reason that I gave a ballpark figure of 600BTC, because in the 600BTC scenario, there still is a $10million cushion, but we know how BTC acts, sometimes, so I understand that a $10million cushion could turn into a $1million cushion, which could become a bit stressfull for normal peeps.. so of course having a bit more cushion would be preferable to lessen both possible psychological issues and fiscal issues.
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maths fail^ nosey fail^
What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k? I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion. If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project. You have better approximation numbers than me? fucktwat?
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You're right, but the only thing that matters to me about coinmarkecap is % BTC Dominance. The other nothing. Why should you give a shit? BTC Dominance is one indicator, and it is a manipulated indicator, so even if it has some abilities to tell certain aspects of a story, we are likely to run into considerable logical error if we put too much weight into one indicator that is quite clearly manipulated and we know such indicator to be manipulated.
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It seems that the poll should include categories of people who might not currently have a full node, but consider decent chances that they will run a full node in the future.
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I can already live off of my crypto earnings comfortably. The type of profits I suggested would be in a range where I could dump some 20~50m into the development of a game without even flinching about potentially never making it back.
That's a lot of BTC you're holding. That is what I was thinking too... Seems a bit more than the average WO participant, or even the elite end of the WO participants... I am thinking that seems to be in the 600BTC plus arena to be able to consider that $20 to $50 million would be a drop in the bucket, in the event that BTC went to the $100k arena.
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[edited out]
I can already live off of my crypto earnings comfortably. The type of profits I suggested would be in a range where I could dump some 20~50m into the development of a game without even flinching about potentially never making it back. Basically make something that I really want to see but never find due to CEOs cutting costs and keeping everything in a bland cookie-cutter manner. Not that I blame them, they are a business after all and need to appease their investors, but I do miss the wonder that old games made by nerds with a passion for the craft brought about and would like to see it brought back with cutting edge tools over tiny indie games. It's nothing of importance, but something that would be fun if I somehow managed to make all the right moves by gitting gud or lucking out. Scholarships are a different story, since you can start handing those out even without being filthy rich, so I'm looking forward to that at some point (after I feel like I've spent enough time researching how to best go about it). And funding research I have no clue about. I suppose funds for a tenure and some assistants for a few years would be a good start. Also doable in the foreseeable future and more practical. Surely I can relate to what you are saying here - of course, your passions and amount that you would invest differs considerably from me, but that merely shows individuality focuses can cause one person to pursue one direction with passion and fulfillment, while another person would chose to employ his/her relatively "excess" millions in another direction. As far as people who bought in above $10k goes. Most of them will only have fractions of Bitcoin and not much spare cash to buy any more than a few more fractions of, or one or two Bitcoins at best. So it'll be pretty hard for them to retire without Bitcoin ballooning well above $100k. They're also most likely going to be the type that will lose most or all of their stash by trading, which doesn't make it much easier.
I'm sure that there is going to be a decent amount of variation with these types in terms of how they may have managed their budget in buying into bitcoin and also possibly learning along the way. Surely, some of the BIGGER mistakes might still include average costs per BTC that are above $10k, but there are decent possibilities, so it seems, to attempt to dollar cost average down the average cost per BTC, especially at these prices without necessarily gambling or leveraging (or over leveraging). I guess part of my point would be that depending on age and timeline and cashflow and a variety of circumstances, a guy/gal could still be considerably in the red on his/her bitcoin investment and still end up becoming rich on it in the future without necessarily acting irresponsibly or gambling too much in terms of ongoing strategy and tweaking... and in this regard, I am kind of presuming that BTC prices are going to go up from here in the future, and they would not necessarily even need to reach $10k or more for investors (even those currently in the red) to come out decently profitable (yet there is always some risk of BTC going to zero which must be kept in mind, and maybe even moreso if your investment is still in the red). There are also very promising altcoins that increasingly reveal themselves as unicorns, albeit with the obvious associated risks involved. Those could help an average pleb increase their Bitcoin stash considerably, beyond what would be possible by cost averaging, buying dips, or trading the BTC/USD pair.
Personally, I say fuck the alt coins, and you don't need them in order to develop and employ reasonable and decent BTC plans... . but of course, cannot stop folks from playing around with some of them. But that game requires hundreds of hours of research and ideally some previous experience with analyzing the unknown and should never be done with sizeable amounts of one's Bitcoin portfolio, especially without extensive experience. The "y house gone" memes are even more fitting here than for just Bitcoin.
Again, I don't think that it is necessary or wise to get involved in other projects, especially if your are already in the red with your BTC, but there could be ways to play a decently small portion of your total investment on such other projects.. but seems like a decently BIG ass waste of time, unless you are able to figure out ways that they might be long term monetizeable and fit into various sound money aspects of bitcoin. Of course, getting into the game and sticking around religiously will help them, even if Bitcoin goes to zero. Because they would eventually have spent a considerable amount of time paying attention to markets and learning about investing money and seeing it grow, rather than waiting for their fiat to drop to half its value every so many years. And investing is pretty much what separates the average net worth individuals from high net worth ones, so losing money to learn this lesson is surely worth it as long as people heed the mantra of not burning money they need for bills and whatnot.
I pretty much agree with you that practicing brings experience and learning that is likely to be appliable in a large varieties of life including continued investing, and really, even though I am suggesting a mostly bitcoin plan, I understand that if someone is really young and has a very long time line, there is likely going to be more experimentation that they can reasonably incorporate into such plan and still end up coming out quite positive, even if some aspects of their plans fail in large ways.
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I recognize that the first article is more bitcoin specific, but overall both of the studies are kind of convoluting bitcoin and other crypto? There seems to be quite inadequate distinguishing that likely is going to cause confusion about what is bitcoin and how bitcoin is distinguishable in the space.
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I'm starting to wonder if JJG is gonna PM me a BTC address for a beer, after all that... ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) Are you talking to me? You come off as such a publicity pussy who largely wants to engage in exaggeration drama? and try to blame me for your phoney baloney. In other words, my name is blawb, and "I need some attention." ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fthumbs.gfycat.com%2FBoilingSizzlingBabirusa-small.gif&t=665&c=agFATq5bgRCM_A) I do think that your point has some merit to it. But aren't you attention whoring yourself by constantly bringing attention to his attention whoring? Both of which I find understandable in the light of the current market situation. But in either case, this is a forum, on the internet. So who fucking cares either way? I'm enjoying the drama, but don't see why it's still going. During the bull market we were all having good chats. Now everybody is flipping out. I guess the two of you are like me, where given a chance you'll keep shitposting and/or arguing 24/7. I get it, it's fun. But is it for you? If not the two of you might want to clam down. Someone should quantify the WO drama indicator. I still think it would signal a reversal due to peaking salt levels lmao Love you both, no homo. Yes... sometimes certain threads of thought (and topics) drag on a bit longer than others might perceive them to be necessary... yet each member posting in this thread comes to his or her or its own decision regarding whether to respond to certain posts or ideas and how to do it....
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Just a brief update: First round of beers have gone out. I've intentionally used low-fees. The mempool has risen since I started, this morning, and is in the process of clearing up. With any luck, you folks start seeing at least one confirmation soon.
I sent PoolMinor an extra two beers as thanks for compiling the list.
Apologies for the drama, but JJG made me legitimately see red.
That, and I'm a bit pissed at myself for not trying to resolve the "logistics" of the "beer boast post" sooner. Pure laziness on my part, really, and in retrospect, I have no excuse for not paying out.
In my defense, I recognize that I had difficulty reconciling the logistics of handling losing the call - "I can't really buy drinks for the entire thread. That is not practical. How do I resolve this in a fair way to the community ?"
It took me seeing red before I saw a reasonable solution.
Again, sincere apologies for trying to weasel my way out of it. It genuinely was not my intention, and I hope my resolution was considered fair.
EDIT: Just saw the entire first round of people get their first confirmation, so, cheers to you.
I gave you a merit on this post, even though I also gave you a lot of (likely deserved) shit in the past few days, and perhaps there is a bit of an acceptance of responsibility within this post that reaches some acceptable threshold rather than ongoing attempts to project fault. I actually don’t expect you to discontinue with your whining, attention whoring and other blawb bullshit, but at least this post seems to contain some self-reflection, rather than overboard emotional projection.
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