I thought that the lightning network had both public and private channels, so in that regard, is 450 BTC a reflection of the total size?  Forgive the newbie-ness of my question, but I really am unclear about how the private versus public aspects can be tracked and what kinds of numbers are reflected by such.

Do you have a source link for that one?

Would not be unreasonable to have some tentative outline about what is possible without getting too attached to such picture, because it seems that patterns are meant to be broken in bitcoinlandia... nonetheless, I could see some kind of decent correction coming a couple of years after the next halvening..

TLDR: Cannot count on it, but can at least consider that there are decent chances of such an outline.

Can't really ever deny observations of Trace, yet there seem to be a multitude of dynamics including pushing in the shitcoin space in which the two bcash branches seem to be suffering the most, and Ethereum is experiencing decent purging of froth too.

I am kind of thinking that there could be some kind of attempt to reach shitcoin singularity with the bcashes and Ethereum around the same price - maybe in the $80 arena or below... Bring them all below $20 would be nice, but that's too much wishful thinking coming out of me... and maybe as nutilah said, a $50 Ethereum might still serve some shit functions, perhaps?...

A problem with Ripple is that the units are off - maybe $.08 would be an overvaluing of ripple, but there seems to sufficient enough dumb money keeping it in the $.30s, with this downfall, and just so much ongoing dumb money from there that would not likely be purged unless some of the ripple CEOs were thrown in jail, which does not seem too likely to happen, either...

Hahahahaha

Remember in about December 2014, there were all kinds of teachings about shorting the BTC market, and how you could make a killing shorting BTC.  2015 through 2017 were not good years to short BTC, even though 2014 and 2018 were. 

Difficult to know what December 2018 and thereafter is going to bring in terms of BTC price performance, but I am having some doubts that in the short-term shorting BTC is going to be nearly as lucrative as it was in either 2014 or 2018...   but what do I know? 

I neither play margin nor attempt to call the short-term BTC price future.. much beyond 50/50..  but I do, sometimes, make observations.       

In this post, you are making a new point, dippy.   I thought that you were criticizing BTCMILLIONAIRE for referring to the whole market cap of cryptos, rather than focusing on bitcoin - and now it seems that you are making a different point about deceptive nature of the market cap data.  I may have to bow out of this, if you cannot at least stay on point.  you fuck.   hahahahahaha

gembitz, dee psycho, seems to have a decent point here.


I still believe that gembitz, dee psycho, has a good point.

It does not hurt to have relatively BIG ASS dreams about what role you would be able to play in various kinds of investment scenarios - but I do know from experience that sometimes your investment can become a lot less passive than you expected merely because of your investment and sometimes the incentives might NOT be strong enough for various principles in the investment to make sure that they are NOT undermining your financial contribution, so sometimes it can be difficult to NOT have a decent amount of involvement, even if your goals were to MOSTLY finance rather than be actively working within the project including goal setting projects.

Well, you are the one who volunteered the $20million to $50 million "throw away money", so it seemed quite topical to explore the extent to which that might be reasonable for anyone to pull off and what kind of cushion anyone might consider to be prudent in order to make such a thing work decently and without too much personal psychological or fiscal stress.  I doubt that you need to provide additional personal particulars in order to appreciate that you have decently thought through some of the parameters including a kind of moving trajectory.. and surely, I understand as well that you were throwing $20 to $50million out there as a ballpark thinking point... and of course, peeps could draw from other sources, too, but yeah, if the funds are mostly coming from BTC appreciation.. then gosh 600 BTC does seem to be within a kind of minimum arena (for a kind of in the ball park of realistic frugality).

Huh?  Isn't facilitating abilities to launch scam coins a use case?  Fuck....

We have seen billions of dollars raised through that scam coin, ETH enabled (facilitated), so even though I am no fan of ETH and its bullshit, there seems to be a use case, no?

There seems to be a decent point in all of this, which is who gives a shit about an ETF?

Of course, an ETF is going to bring greater financialization to BTC and likely overall be bullish on bitcoin's short term future and likely long term future, too... but it is no where near to necessary for bitcoin to remain a very good investment with strong fundamentals.

Of course that would be amongst the most prudent of approaches, but of course levels of prudence is going to vary, and I think that was the reason that I gave a ballpark figure of 600BTC, because in the 600BTC scenario, there still is a $10million cushion, but we know how BTC acts, sometimes, so I understand that a $10million cushion could turn into a $1million cushion, which could become a bit stressfull for normal peeps.. so of course having a bit more cushion would be preferable to lessen both possible psychological issues and fiscal issues.

What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k?

I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion.

If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project.

You have better approximation numbers than me?  fucktwat?

Why should you give a shit?  BTC Dominance is one indicator, and it is a manipulated indicator, so even if it has some abilities to tell certain aspects of a story, we are likely to run into considerable logical error if we put too much weight into one indicator that is quite clearly manipulated and we know such indicator to be manipulated.

It seems that the poll should include categories of people who might not currently have a full node, but consider decent chances that they will run a full node in the future.

That is what I was thinking too...

Seems a bit more than the average WO participant, or even the elite end of the WO participants...

I am thinking that seems to be in the 600BTC plus arena to be able to consider that $20 to $50 million would be a drop in the bucket, in the event that BTC went to the $100k arena.

Surely I can relate to what you are saying here - of course, your passions and amount that you would invest differs considerably from me, but that merely shows individuality focuses can cause one person to pursue one direction with passion and fulfillment, while another person would chose to employ his/her relatively "excess" millions in another direction.


I'm sure that there is going to be a decent amount of variation with these types in terms of how they may have managed their budget in buying into bitcoin and also possibly learning along the way.  Surely, some of the BIGGER mistakes might still include average costs per BTC that are above $10k, but there are decent possibilities, so it seems, to attempt to dollar cost average down the average cost per BTC, especially at these prices without necessarily gambling or leveraging (or over leveraging).

I guess part of my point would be that depending on age and timeline and cashflow and a variety of circumstances, a guy/gal could still be considerably in the red on his/her bitcoin investment and still end up becoming rich on it in the future without necessarily acting irresponsibly or gambling too much in terms of ongoing strategy and tweaking... and in this regard, I am kind of presuming that BTC prices are going to go up from here in the future, and they would not necessarily even need to reach $10k or more for investors (even those currently in the red) to come out decently profitable (yet there is always some risk of BTC going to zero which must be kept in mind, and maybe even moreso if your investment is still in the red).


Personally, I say fuck the alt coins, and you don't need them in order to develop and employ reasonable and decent BTC plans... . but of course, cannot stop folks from playing around with some of them.


Again, I don't think that it is necessary or wise to get involved in other projects, especially if your are already in the red with your BTC, but there could be ways to play a decently small portion of your total investment on such other projects.. but seems like a decently BIG ass waste of time, unless you are able to figure out ways that they might be long term monetizeable and fit into various sound money aspects of bitcoin.


I pretty much agree with you that practicing brings experience and learning that is likely to be appliable in a large varieties of life including continued investing, and really, even though I am suggesting a mostly bitcoin plan, I understand that if someone is really young and has a very long time line, there is likely going to be more experimentation that they can reasonably incorporate into such plan and still end up coming out quite positive, even if some aspects of their plans fail in large ways.

I recognize that the first article is more bitcoin specific, but overall both of the studies are kind of convoluting bitcoin and other crypto?  There seems to be quite inadequate distinguishing that likely is going to cause confusion about what is bitcoin and how bitcoin is distinguishable in the space.

Yes... sometimes certain threads of thought (and topics) drag on a bit longer than others might perceive them to be necessary... yet each member posting in this thread comes to his or her or its own decision regarding whether to respond to certain posts or ideas and how to do it....

I gave you a merit on this post, even though I also gave you a lot of (likely deserved) shit in the past few days, and perhaps there is a bit of an acceptance of responsibility within this post that reaches some acceptable threshold rather than ongoing attempts to project fault. 

I actually don’t expect you to discontinue with your whining, attention whoring and other blawb bullshit, but at least this post seems to contain some self-reflection, rather than overboard emotional projection.