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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.5%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.4%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.8%)
H2 2020 - 28 (18.2%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.8%)
H2 2021 - 31 (20.1%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.9%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.7%)
Total Voters: 154

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21290363 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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December 05, 2018, 10:50:16 PM

I can already live off of my crypto earnings comfortably. The type of profits I suggested would be in a range where I could dump some 20~50m into the development of a game without even flinching about potentially never making it back.

That's a lot of BTC you're holding.


That is what I was thinking too...

Seems a bit more than the average WO participant, or even the elite end of the WO participants...

I am thinking that seems to be in the 600BTC plus arena to be able to consider that $20 to $50 million would be a drop in the bucket, in the event that BTC went to the $100k arena.

I wouldn't consider throwing 20-50m in a non-profitable hobby unless I have at least 10 times the amount so.... maybe a couple thousands of BTC (@$100K) to be comfortable with that "frivolous" spending.
I'd be flabbergasted if that hobby didn't turn out immensely profitable. I just wouldn't do it for the money and would be happy with just creating something that I could enjoy for numerous years of my life.

I also want to nudge it in a direction that fosters a try-harding mentality in casuals that is completely absent in today's instant gratification mainstream games to hopefully create a culture of non-complacent people that try to go out and do something that others would look at in awe. Without them noticing what is happening to them as they play (which is what happened to me as I spent around a decade full-time playing a single game).

Basically, a game that brainwashes people in doing something with their lives instead of buying a fucking iPhone every year with all of their savings.
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JayJuanGee
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December 05, 2018, 10:51:54 PM

maths fail^ nosey fail^

What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k?

I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion.

If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project.

You have better approximation numbers than me?  fucktwat?
Your Math is actually more than sensible on this one, given the assumption that $100k is the target.

Keep in mind that people could be satisfied with a relatively frugal lifestyle (not living in an insanely huge mansion, while still having cash for all the high-end nerd toys one would want; the most outrageous TVs are barely 10k, desktop computers at best half etc.). Not everyone needs lambos, yachts, planes or whatever the fuck rich people tend to get.

Developing a game that shits on the crappy triple A titles takes a very long time as well. And the full sum isn't going to be spent in one go, but over half a decade as a lower end estimate. That gives some wiggle room. There are also ways to be more economical about this if you're not in a rush to release a title to generate revenue. You can start small, lay a very strong foundation, then scale up with the years as necessary.


What I'm saying is, is that while the 600 BTC number is a very good guess (as the 10m difference to the higher end estimate is enough to live lavishly for the rest of one's life) it can be both significantly lower or higher.

AI is developing at a crazy speed as well with one crucial example being the ability of taking low resolution images and having an AI upscale it to high-resolution given enough training data (textures are one of the biggest cost factors in this industry). There also has been an AI that turned video material into a functioning game engine. Basically, the 20-50m estimate that is true for today's titles might very well be cut down to a fraction before Bitcoin hits 100k or whatever price.

I may be well off, but I'm sure others have much more than me. I certainly can't move the BTC/USD market, so I'm lightyears away from being a whale.

Well, you are the one who volunteered the $20million to $50 million "throw away money", so it seemed quite topical to explore the extent to which that might be reasonable for anyone to pull off and what kind of cushion anyone might consider to be prudent in order to make such a thing work decently and without too much personal psychological or fiscal stress.  I doubt that you need to provide additional personal particulars in order to appreciate that you have decently thought through some of the parameters including a kind of moving trajectory.. and surely, I understand as well that you were throwing $20 to $50million out there as a ballpark thinking point... and of course, peeps could draw from other sources, too, but yeah, if the funds are mostly coming from BTC appreciation.. then gosh 600 BTC does seem to be within a kind of minimum arena (for a kind of in the ball park of realistic frugality).
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December 05, 2018, 10:52:09 PM

Don’t fear the reaper

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December 05, 2018, 10:55:21 PM

Wow $3700 what is this bullshit.

you new here? ~if $2500 holds i might put in $100 and spin the wheel again? Wink weeee
Super new but I think I have caught on:


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December 05, 2018, 10:58:24 PM

Wow $3700 what is this bullshit.

you new here? ~if $2500 holds i might put in $100 and spin the wheel again? Wink weeee
Super new but I think I have caught on:


Micgoosens is from Kentucky and drinks strictly Bud light and works as a tattoo removal specialist.



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Your edit fucked up your username too, happy to see I'm not the only one.

I also fucked up others so don't feel singles out.
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December 05, 2018, 11:00:58 PM

maths fail^ nosey fail^

What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k?

I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion.

If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project.

You have better approximation numbers than me?  fucktwat?
Your Math is actually more than sensible on this one, given the assumption that $100k is the target.

Keep in mind that people could be satisfied with a relatively frugal lifestyle (not living in an insanely huge mansion, while still having cash for all the high-end nerd toys one would want; the most outrageous TVs are barely 10k, desktop computers at best half etc.). Not everyone needs lambos, yachts, planes or whatever the fuck rich people tend to get.

Developing a game that shits on the crappy triple A titles takes a very long time as well. And the full sum isn't going to be spent in one go, but over half a decade as a lower end estimate. That gives some wiggle room. There are also ways to be more economical about this if you're not in a rush to release a title to generate revenue. You can start small, lay a very strong foundation, then scale up with the years as necessary.


What I'm saying is, is that while the 600 BTC number is a very good guess (as the 10m difference to the higher end estimate is enough to live lavishly for the rest of one's life) it can be both significantly lower or higher.

AI is developing at a crazy speed as well with one crucial example being the ability of taking low resolution images and having an AI upscale it to high-resolution given enough training data (textures are one of the biggest cost factors in this industry). There also has been an AI that turned video material into a functioning game engine. Basically, the 20-50m estimate that is true for today's titles might very well be cut down to a fraction before Bitcoin hits 100k or whatever price.

I may be well off, but I'm sure others have much more than me. I certainly can't move the BTC/USD market, so I'm lightyears away from being a whale.

Well, you are the one who volunteered the $20million to $50 million "throw away money", so it seemed quite topical to explore the extent to which that might be reasonable for anyone to pull off and what kind of cushion anyone might consider to be prudent in order to make such a thing work decently and without too much personal psychological or fiscal stress.  I doubt that you need to provide additional personal particulars in order to appreciate that you have decently thought through some of the parameters including a kind of moving trajectory.. and surely, I understand as well that you were throwing $20 to $50million out there as a ballpark thinking point... and of course, peeps could draw from other sources, too, but yeah, if the funds are mostly coming from BTC appreciation.. then gosh 600 BTC does seem to be within a kind of minimum arena (for a kind of in the ball park of realistic frugality).
I'm fully expecting not to be able to start without having funds in that region because I can't possibly expect technological progress to just cut costs to a tenth or so, despite the feasibility. It's mostly a pipe dream, but one that I've been exploring over the years since actually having the option doesn't seem impossible, albeit not very likely. I spend a good amount of time every so often thinking about what I'd do if different scenarios play out, and this is just one.

There are also a few different plans to raise money without relying on Bitcorn, but I'm not sure I like the idea of being responsible for the livelihood of people as I like to just start and stop shit on a whim. I'm kind of like a moth flying from one blinking light to another, except that the light is some random shit that I start to find interesting for no particular reason. Can't do that when running a business, hence my involvement with finance. Can trade and invest without ever talking to anyone these days, what a time to be alive.
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December 05, 2018, 11:05:21 PM

legacy plummeting Grin
HairyMaclairy
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December 05, 2018, 11:07:02 PM

Fuck the banks.  Bring the pain.
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December 05, 2018, 11:16:04 PM

What's going on? News? just fuckery?
Dimon?
edit: this?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-05/carnage-continues-us-futures-crash-re-open-after-huawei-cfo-arrest

moar https://twitter.com/StockBoardAsset/status/1070453637334294529
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December 05, 2018, 11:22:46 PM

[ edited out]
I'm fully expecting not to be able to start without having funds in that region because I can't possibly expect technological progress to just cut costs to a tenth or so, despite the feasibility. It's mostly a pipe dream, but one that I've been exploring over the years since actually having the option doesn't seem impossible, albeit not very likely. I spend a good amount of time every so often thinking about what I'd do if different scenarios play out, and this is just one.

There are also a few different plans to raise money without relying on Bitcorn, but I'm not sure I like the idea of being responsible for the livelihood of people as I like to just start and stop shit on a whim. I'm kind of like a moth flying from one blinking light to another, except that the light is some random shit that I start to find interesting for no particular reason. Can't do that when running a business, hence my involvement with finance. Can trade and invest without ever talking to anyone these days, what a time to be alive.

It does not hurt to have relatively BIG ASS dreams about what role you would be able to play in various kinds of investment scenarios - but I do know from experience that sometimes your investment can become a lot less passive than you expected merely because of your investment and sometimes the incentives might NOT be strong enough for various principles in the investment to make sure that they are NOT undermining your financial contribution, so sometimes it can be difficult to NOT have a decent amount of involvement, even if your goals were to MOSTLY finance rather than be actively working within the project including goal setting projects.
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December 05, 2018, 11:23:29 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

Lenny Bruce is not afraid
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December 05, 2018, 11:27:37 PM

Don’t fear the reaper


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1070446975642812416 Tracking shot of Falcon water landing
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December 05, 2018, 11:41:04 PM

Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, it now holds over 200,000 BTC for institutional investor clients. Considering the fact that there are 17.4 million BTC in circulation, this means that the company now has control of 1% of Bitcoin in circulation.

https://www.cryptocurrency365.com/news/greyscale-bitcoin-investment-trust-now-controls-1-percent-of-btc/
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December 05, 2018, 11:47:24 PM

Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, it now holds over 200,000 BTC for institutional investor clients. Considering the fact that there are 17.4 million BTC in circulation, this means that the company now has control of 1% of Bitcoin in circulation.

https://www.cryptocurrency365.com/news/greyscale-bitcoin-investment-trust-now-controls-1-percent-of-btc/

Not accounting for the millions(?) of lost coins
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December 05, 2018, 11:50:03 PM

lol CME intervened to stop stocks crashing

notlol btc looks really bad

lol eos broke down from a downtrend
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December 05, 2018, 11:51:11 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

[ edited out]
I'm fully expecting not to be able to start without having funds in that region because I can't possibly expect technological progress to just cut costs to a tenth or so, despite the feasibility. It's mostly a pipe dream, but one that I've been exploring over the years since actually having the option doesn't seem impossible, albeit not very likely. I spend a good amount of time every so often thinking about what I'd do if different scenarios play out, and this is just one.

There are also a few different plans to raise money without relying on Bitcorn, but I'm not sure I like the idea of being responsible for the livelihood of people as I like to just start and stop shit on a whim. I'm kind of like a moth flying from one blinking light to another, except that the light is some random shit that I start to find interesting for no particular reason. Can't do that when running a business, hence my involvement with finance. Can trade and invest without ever talking to anyone these days, what a time to be alive.

It does not hurt to have relatively BIG ASS dreams about what role you would be able to play in various kinds of investment scenarios - but I do know from experience that sometimes your investment can become a lot less passive than you expected merely because of your investment and sometimes the incentives might NOT be strong enough for various principles in the investment to make sure that they are NOT undermining your financial contribution, so sometimes it can be difficult to NOT have a decent amount of involvement, even if your goals were to MOSTLY finance rather than be actively working within the project including goal setting projects.
No, my plan is to fully oversee the entire process, not just finance it. I meant that there wouldn't be money going to some directors/CEOs who have pretty high annual salaries etc, since I'd be the one doing their job and spending my own money. If I really got to a point where I'd pull the plug on that plan I wouldn't leave a single thing to chance. I don't want a cookie cutter cash cow game, I want a world.
VB1001
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December 05, 2018, 11:51:44 PM

Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, it now holds over 200,000 BTC for institutional investor clients. Considering the fact that there are 17.4 million BTC in circulation, this means that the company now has control of 1% of Bitcoin in circulation.

https://www.cryptocurrency365.com/news/greyscale-bitcoin-investment-trust-now-controls-1-percent-of-btc/

Not accounting for the millions(?) of lost coins

How many coins are lost +/-?
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December 05, 2018, 11:53:49 PM

That already broke, we gonna retest 3400 and then test 3k soon.

She can still bounce. Actually, if she doesn't bounce that would be quite the counter-pattern. I'm finding it hard to find anything in the charts that would correspond - >30% drops on the weekly have always bounced.
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December 05, 2018, 11:54:58 PM
Last edit: December 06, 2018, 12:28:18 AM by Last of the V8s

Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, it now holds over 200,000 BTC for institutional investor clients. Considering the fact that there are 17.4 million BTC in circulation, this means that the company now has control of 1% of Bitcoin in circulation.

https://www.cryptocurrency365.com/news/greyscale-bitcoin-investment-trust-now-controls-1-percent-of-btc/

Not accounting for the millions(?) of lost coins

How many coins are lost +/-?

Recently 'everyone's' been putting the figure at ~4 million, due to a Fortune article a year ago. http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/
empowering
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December 05, 2018, 11:58:17 PM

Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, it now holds over 200,000 BTC for institutional investor clients. Considering the fact that there are 17.4 million BTC in circulation, this means that the company now has control of 1% of Bitcoin in circulation.

https://www.cryptocurrency365.com/news/greyscale-bitcoin-investment-trust-now-controls-1-percent-of-btc/

Not accounting for the millions(?) of lost coins

How many coins are lost +/-?

I would say somewhere between 4-7 million, maybe more, I had heard it said somewhere it could be as high as 10 million, but from what I have heard and read over the years I would say for almost certain that 4-6 million are lost


Lost






 
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