I have however just bought 10 BTC at $640
Bears, be afraid. This is a sign, a really big one. Good luck! (to both of us hehe) |
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Since Mt Cocks folded price is stable as hell, is this the new deal?
Nah. Bitcoin is overpriced to most new money but current holders of Bitcoin aren't interested in selling. Recent few days have consisted of near non-existent volume punctuated by huge intermittent whale splashes both to upside and to downside. If I never had so much trust in the integrity of the exchanges I would say that these splashes where simply exchange insiders squeezing leveraged traders out of their positions. Don't be scared, the water is lovely! I want to see a proper confirmation that the downtrend is finished otherwise I aint interested. Last thing I want to be is stuck on some seismic vessel and hearing about Bitcoin trending in $300 range when I bought in at $600. I would rather miss out than than risk that happening which lets face it, is a very viable possibility. There is as of yet nothing 'real' supporting Bitcoin's still very high hyper inflated price except hopes for future gain combined with a lack of supply of BTC on the market. Just takes the wrong sort of X-Factor to come along and the current price level could have the rug swiped from under it's feet......(i.e. stolen coins flooding exchanges) If Bitcoin is to be spared further horrors, then it will all be about trending and grinding from here unless some other kind of X-Factor hits such as a bit of human misery in the form of a financial crisis in some 2nd rate economy. That is what all the freedom loving libertarian Bitcoiners are sitting crossing their fingers for cos that is what will make em rich(er). Is it chart support or fundamental support you are after? Accepting of course that they are both mythical beasts  |
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I think you are holding the charts too close to your face.
Hmm yes, very good. I shall politely remind you that you not even once have you called the square root of fuck all remotely correctly since I started tuning in here but I congratulate you on your immunity to your Bitcoin's USD worth. I wish I could be so free of Bitcoin stress like you, except that I don't as being a latecomer I would be in the fkn poorhouse if I were to adopt such a fkn numbskulled attitude towards my finances. Holliday. Zero market acumen, but good for a smart arse comment or two. I bid you good day. I have made every attempt to avoid calling the square root of fuck all. So yes, I can agree that I have not made a correct call since you started tuning in here. Zero market acumen is exactly correct. I don't play this market. I don't play any market. Most day traders lose money. Why would I play a game when there is a good chance I will lose? Not to mention the traders who made all the right calls and lost every single satoshi of profit when their exchange "disappeared". I'll admit that I am often tempted (although not during consolidation periods like we have now). You aren't a latecomer, don't lie. According to many of your posts you knew about Bitcoin as early as, possibly earlier than, I did. I am in the poorhouse, and you know nothing of my finances. I don't live life like most people. My main concern is expanding my freedom and avoiding those things which could reduce it. Freedom is more important to me than money, but I'm not ignorant to the fact that in today's world money can open a lot of doors. I use Bitcoin as a tool to increase my freedom. I am not immune to the value fluctuations, but I've accepted them long ago. I'm betting on one thing, that there will continue to be people in the world who value Bitcoin as a useful tool until something better comes along (assuming Bitcoin can't simply adopt the improvements should that occur). You just said everything I want to say, but fear it would be wasted prove us wrong MTC show us a little insight! hehe. I think Holliday might have touched something. You have mentioned being in early on several occasions. Maybe this is just bitter regret? - I'm not saying it is but can you be absolutely sure it isn't? I'm sure you probably see all my posts as taking shots at you, I guess there is an element of truth in that, but only insomuch as I might tease anyone (and expect to be teased in return) as a means of getting them to reflect. (As indeed I would need to reflect if I am pulled up on things). Everyone is here for the same shared common interest, the points of view might differ, but we are all kind of in it together. So for that reason I think we should all learn together. I'm not trying to say I have the answers and you should listen to me or whatever, what I guess I'm doing is asking you questions about yourself so I can understand *myself* better by understanding those around me. I don't assume to have you sussed, in fact you might just be trolling, in which case fair play you got me! IF you aren't though I'm fascinated by your motives. |
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Since Mt Cocks folded price is stable as hell, is this the new deal?
Nah. Bitcoin is overpriced to most new money but current holders of Bitcoin aren't interested in selling. Recent few days have consisted of near non-existent volume punctuated by huge intermittent whale splashes both to upside and to downside. If I never had so much trust in the integrity of the exchanges I would say that these splashes where simply exchange insiders squeezing leveraged traders out of their positions. Don't be scared, the water is lovely! |
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Seeing as I bought at $1000, yes, $640 is a GREAT price to buy....  It's coming in August!!! August? Can it be a month or two earlier? Might be July, but theres no rush eh  One thing, I'd hate to be on the wrong side of the trade at the moment, unsure of when to buy back in.... watching it go higher ... sure that there will be a correction where I can jump in... Smell the fear  I'll be over here sipping scotch. |
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Well of course they did. They want to make sure that people don't buy in too fast too soon. Need to keep to the plan... The orchestrated replacement of pesky untraceable cash with a perfectly auditable digital alternative. This idea was floating around well over a year ago, and the longer it goes on and the more 'perfectly' the charts rinse and repeat, the more obvious it looks. If you was the gubment you'd do it too. They know that nobody is stupid enough not to take profits on the way up... Nobody! |
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Alright, let's try something different. I'm going to zoom out a bit, because (I'm sure you will agree) it's pretty difficult to read the market right now. (cue Mat "manipulative whale whores everywhere, cannot trust this price, ramble ramble".) Note that I'm smoothing out the details in the following one. Median price instead of candles. 30 day EMA as the comparative baseline. I want to look at the bigger picture for a moment, okay?  Looking at it like that, it doesn't sound completely unreasonable to me to ask "are we playing out a similar post-bubble correction like in 2013, and are we at the end of it?". The similarities: red circle is the "Oh fuck. The rally is really over, after all" phase. Suddenly there's almost no hope left (except for permabulls) that we're breaking through the top again. Predictably, then comes the flash crash. Next, we go back above the 30d EMA. Sentiment: "Hey, maybe this time the recovery will be done much quicker! Look, we already found the bottom last week!". Nope. It's never over that quick. Orange circle follows. Which is where we are now. Maybe. Let's say we are, for a second. So what would we expect to see in that case? Looking back to July/August 2013, let's note first that there's plenty of room for indecision reflected in the price. We actually went below the 30d EMA for another week. But eventually, it'll have to stay above... no need for huge jumps at first, but we do need to stay above that baseline at some point, or it's going to look like the correction will drag on. In analogy with 2013, I'd say (raw) price briefly dipping back to 600 is still okay, but if it's going back below 580 then it's probably a lost cause. Also, any of those visits below the EMA should be over in about a week, maybe two, otherwise the similarities to 2013 pretty much end there. EDIT: Correction. Forgot about the dump on July 18 that took out 60% of the gains we made since the capitulation. Analogous would be staying above 520 now. One thing: don't come in here shouting "what reversal, we're still firmly in a downtrend", please. Think of the above as a hypothetical question in if/then form: if we are indeed in a recovery situation similar to July 2013, what would we expect to see in the next week or two. I like that chart a lot, because it looks like a graph of human psychology, and in bitcoin that's still really relevant (imho). So I have nothing to add! Every day goes by it feels like this bottom was already in. I'm happy with the coins I bought in the 500s, and that is something I could never have imagined myself saying last year. In fact I recall specifically deciding against buying on the crash from $266 to under a hundred, because I just couldn't get my head around pay $90 for ONE bitcoin. |
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I predict that you will still be bitching about manipulation at 20k. Will be bumping this when it happens.
I have no Bitcoin positions. I couldn't give a rats arse if some whale wants to plunge 3 million USD in and out of market right now. Infact, I feel a great relief that I am not playing at the moment as I witness these erratic and unforsesable spikes up n down. What is forseeable is the creeping price slide back to test the previous low. Enjoy watching your net worth evaporate further, suckers. You know every day I wake up I have no less bitcoin than when I went to sleep. I'm not sure that constitutes 'evaporation'. |
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Run, Forrest.
sgbett, making a 'retard' jibe, at me!? Well I never! Dear oh dear oh dear. Erm.......How are the old Goxbux going Mr Bett? You really, *really* need to watch that film again, if you think he was a retard. Goxcoins are right now worth exactly what I expected them to be worth. What you fail to see is they still constitute opportunity. You see I have turned risk on its head, I have locked in my maximum loss. That "loss" is the cost of insuring myself against the unlikely event that what I had in their pays out a percentage. Consider the scenario instead where you keep your premium, so you can be sure that is all you will ever have. Now consider gox actually pays 0.2BTC on the bitcoin. Your opportunity loss is around 400% (it was easy enough to pick up gox for 0.05BTC on the bitcoin). If they pay out more, say 50% your loss is around 1000%. I fix my costs, and leave my upside unlimited. Mostly, everyone else in the world does the opposite. Forrest Gump, fictional though he is, is one of the smartest people I can think of. Unencumbered by society's preconceived ideas about what you should and shouldn't do. Able to truly live life freely. I can only aspire to be that special. |
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When I saw this thread a dark realization came upon me, we had not yet reached a sustained reversal.
I am also becoming increasingly convinced that we haven't, or at least feel that we are going a good bit lower than where we are now at least testing the previous low if not actually breaching it. Trading has been very strange lately. Absolutely nothing and then big bursts all at once, both to upside and to downside......as though there were very little organic interest but some big fishes are making big splashes all at once. Dangerous times. Most holders of Bitcoin are holding for future USD gains. Most Bitcoin trading is done by speculators looking to make USD gains in the present. But the whole game is held together by increasing interest at prices that don't scare new capital. If Bitcoin isn't making people money, or even losing people money, then why hold it? What is needed to support price is increased functional adoption, which will come but saving for some economic crisis, will take some quite some time. Otherwise, another mad rush into Bitcoin is required. I am sure this will happen again at some point but I can't see where it is going to come from at the time being. Run, Forrest. |
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Rewind to the beginning of 2009. I had a pension fund with skandia, it was managed and was split between three middle of the road ETF's. It had obviously suffered a bit due to the events of 2008.
A while before that I'd got a MacBook Pro, which I'd bought primarily as a result of having got an iPhone some time before that. I did this on the recommendation of a friend who's opinion I respected when my then current (linux) laptop was stolen, and I was trying to find a replacement.
I saw the products Apple was putting out. They seemed to value quality over price. I liked what I bought. I believed in them as a company.
So much so that I took my pension and moved it to a SIPP. For those that don't know a SIPP is a wrapper that allows you to control how your pension pot is invested. After forking over the fees necessary to switch providers (gotta love the financial industry taking a bite out of everything you do) I put it all into AAPL stock.
At the time, the sentiment towards AAPL was the same as the sentiment towards BTC right now. Anyone that I told what I had done said I was crazy, I shouldn't risk my future on some crazy gamble. As it turns out over the next few years I averaged out of AAPL and diversified into a few other companies. This was the "sensible" thing to do. I hated doing it, but I knew I probably should. Wouldn't you know it, if I'd just left it in AAPL I'd be doing far better - even after the slide from $700 back down to today's prices.
The point of this anecdote, is that I bought AAPL because I believed in it. I know full well it could have gone the other way. I feel exactly the same way about BTC.
To be clear, what this post means is that I would rather lose all my money investing in things that I fundamentally believe are great. I think if you play it safe every single time life throws an opportunity your way, then the only thing you can be sure of is that you will never, ever, realise the benefits of those opportunities. Whilst some people might be cool with that, what they fail to miss is that they don't guarantee that bad stuff won't happen.
Humans are shit at risk. Risk is probability, life is outcomes. Life doesn't do probabilities, it is concrete outcome. The probability of something having happened is no consolation to the person it happened to.
If bad shit is gonna happen to me, then I'd like to have been the person responsible for it, rather than the person who blames their shitty luck.
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You are a slave to your own assumptions......
Ahem. Will have to stop you right there and remind you that the OP stated that he was 'all-in'. 'All-in' to me, sounds like every spare bit of capital that he has. Wouldn't you agree? Sure, I'll agree, because whats most important is that you are right. So long as you are right, who gives a damn about anything else.  |
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Do remember to come back in three years time and post about how lucky this guy was.
totally different scenario to the early adopters in many ways.... ....not least of all that you or I could have become near millionaires by investing a small amount of capital. As it turns out, you invested an absolute pittance and I invested jackshit/spent all my single digit Bitcoins on Silk Road. This guy is investing a small fortune. Totally different fkn ball game at a totally different phase of Bitcoins development. Can you really say that we aren't yet going to test the $266 April 2013 high? I doubt it, but with Bitcoin anything is possible so I wouldn't be writing that off. Bitcoin is overblown. Simple as that. Hyper-inflated value derived from from a speculative mania based entirely upon hoarding, restricted supply, and lack of market liquidity. Reverse any of these factors (such as having around 500K stolen coins looking to convert themselves into USD and Bitcoin could easily go in the opposite extreme. Bitcoin might go to $5K within the next 18 months. But it also may just hit the $200s, or even less depending on how some totally unpredictable events happen to play out. As they say, don't go putting yer house on it. You are a slave to your own assumptions. You constantly talk in absolute terms "small amount of capital", "small fortune" ... by who's standards? What that $300k would mean to you in your personal position, isn't the same as what it would mean to other people. . How do you know what this guys circumstances are, I am fairly sure from the way the story was phrased this house was *spare*. So why is he "out of his mind" exactly? Until you can see the world from other people's points of view you are about the least qualified person on here to make judgements about anything. You are hamstrung by your own belief that the way you see the world is the way it is. I would have thought that someone who spent so much money on silk road would have a deeper understanding of the essential nature of things and the role of their own perception in understanding the universe around them. |
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1. $555 the pennant on the daily charts due to resolve at around $540 mid april will have two weeks left to go and price will be min $530, max $580, so this is the midpoint.
2. Price breaks up after that. $800+ about a month later, say 15th May.
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Hi All, I have been following Bitcoin for over a year and was the first person ever to put my house for sale for bitcoin. http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/yourcommunity/2013/03/alberta-man-accepting-bitcoins-in-exchange-for-home.htmlNot sure if you followed my story from a year ago, but the house just sold on Friday, and will make the news tomorrow I suspect. When the house closed on Friday I got approximately 648 BTC for my house which is based on prices over the past 6 months when the deal was actively negotiated, legal fees, realtor fees, and a bunch of contract wording that I frankly don't understand. I am now all in! I really believe in bitcoin. It is the future of the world. I look forward to the continued price increase and one day I plan to own my own island. I will truly be a bitcoin billionaire by the time I am 25 I believe. This house was inherited from my father who passed away a few years ago and he always believed in me and told me I would make it big one day and so I shall. Wish me luck Tay More If you don't mind me saying....you are out your fucking mind. As other people have suggested. Visualise your reaction if you wake up sometime next week and see Bitcoin at $450. How is that going to make you feel? What are you going to do? You realise that there are hundreds of thousands of stolen coins in circulation right now, many of them probably being prepared for a big long drawn out cashing out, don't you? Sell at least 60% of what you have for as close to the matching equivalent cash price of your house that you can get. 200 BTC is more than enough of a wild card gamble to be taking on Bitcoin at this point in time. If Bitcoin goes to $5K, then great! But if Bitcoin happens to die a premature death for any reason, then you live and learn but you still have your shirt on your back. Do remember to come back in three years time and post about how lucky this guy was. |
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"maybe you are right, but I can't sell, its my position"
this |
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I'm all bitcoin baby.
(apart from that black place where I am partly goxcoin. I don't talk about that though.)
Yes. U are the traders ultimate contrarian indicator. Bitcoin @ $820: For weeks I have watched you post thread after thread of astonishing crap. I know my SNR is high, but wow you destroy me.
Quote this for truth:
Buy as much as the fuck you can, right the fuck now. End of January comes and all the sell the (OMG CHINA BANNED BTC) rumours, are gonna buy the news. Not to mention all the "lets see what happens at the end of jan" dollars sat on the sidelines.
I hope you never sent too much over to Karpeles' getaway fund. I actually felt sorry for you when you were doing it........but then, you are an early adopter Bitcoin millionaire so I will spare you my tears. Did bitcoin finish, do we have to add up scores now? I thought not... my prediction re china was wrong. My prediction re: gox, thats still to play out. My prediction RE should you have bought bitcoin at every point ever... that's got a long long time to play out... You keep trading though, you are probably making loads more than me... until you don't. This early adopter millionaire nonsense is also troubling, do you think that somehow I had thousands of dollars to put into BTC when it was a dollar, and that I then just held it all through the three run-ups, and now I am sat on a fortune? Sadly no. I started with $100, because it was all I could afford at the time. I also missed buying at 30cents because I had no cash at all. Since then working has generated far more income than bitcoin. So please stop telling me how 'lucky' I am. |
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Best call of the thread so far. I do indeed like to sip scotch whilst waiting And while waiting sgbett missed the november'13 rally completely.  Sipping scotch only works profitably when you're holding BTC, not fiat Btw. my castle, Malla, is now on day 8. The Day 0 party was nice, but revealed that we need moar bedrooms. So let's build some I have commenced reparations there and the Château-Hôtel Malla is ready to open this summer. Even before that, if you really want to see me (or the place), just contact my reservations manager (contact info in the link). I'm still baffled as to why anyone holds anything *other* than BTC (notwithstanding one's scotch glass) all my posts berating the day traders should be testament enough to that! I'm not sure my humble stash affords me the luxury of visiting Malla quite yet. |
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there is no chance the reporter is lying. reporters are definitely not prone to lying to get a good story.
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