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17621  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2018, 06:11:39 PM

another way to 'fit' the 2014 fractal lol

I vote for this.
17622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2018, 06:07:01 PM
IF we repeat the 2013 twin peak pattern after 1st halving, and adjusting for extended peak-to-peak timeline (22months:30months), we could be looking at final 2nd halving bull run blow-off phase beginning soonish and peaking out ~early-Feb 2019 (48months:65months) ... slower but in the same ratio.


That would be great!!!  I will vote for that version.
17623  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2018, 04:59:47 PM
Shut up Hairy!  Don't jinx this with your prognostications.

It would be nice if bitcoin would go into a bit of a punishing phase.... to punish some of those folks waiting for cheaper coins... or those folks who are waiting for the alt coins to bring them lambos... .  I just don't know if bitcoin is quite ready for punishing phase.. but it would be nice.. a bit of a fantasy of mine to re-live the late 2017 upwards price movements that took a lot of waiting for lower prices folks for a bit of a surprise.

By the way, I seem to recall that a bit more than a week ago, Hairy had said that he had expected a bit of a pump to $7k or even $7,200-ish.. because BTC prices in the lower $6ks seemed to be a bit "oversold."... something like that.

Ahh 2017. The happy times. We all knew it was nuts though. I dont think we will see its like again though as the the shorters are a force now.

Are you mischaracterizing on purpose? 

If you have been around bitcoin long enough, you will realize that 2017 is not an aberration and bitcoin has gone into a punishment mode on numerous occasions.  Yes, of course, we are in a correction period, but a major point of my post was to suggest that if bitcoin returns into punishing mode then those shorters that you proclaim to be "a force" are gonna get reckt, and that is what I was hoping for, even if the odds might be against such, at the moment, perhaps?


We need to bust ~7500 to break the trend line and 10k to confirm the end of the bear.

Of course, BTC prices have been down for a while, so it seems likely to take a bit of effort to break above various resistance points and to possibly reverse the correction or to bounce out of the consolidation range.... Yes, bear has won the day down to $6k, and they have made at least 4 attempts at breaking below $6k.. so their difficulties getting below $6k could also lend support to the bottom already being in... NOT safe to be shorting when the bottom is already in, if that ends up being the case.



This latest rally could just be another dead cat but unlike the April and July bounces, its more sure and steady unlike the 4 pump days of the other 2.


Yes, of course, could be, could be.  If I assert that I hope for more up, I am not saying that the odds are great that prices will be able to or are ready to break upwards.. sometimes it takes a bit of movement and continued movement in order to reverse moment or to cause momentum.



I had to Sodl 50% of my stash (real world bills) so there is a great chance that this is the bottom.

O.k.  So you were over invested?  50% is a pretty large amount to sell... Sold at a profit, I hope?  I understand that sometimes riding out the waves can take a quite a bit of effort, and bills certainly come due.. so one thing is planning for the bills, including emergency situations, and another thing is actually recognizing whether there is enough cushion in the plan... so it can be understandable that reality sneaks up and all of us have to keep in mind that we gotta have some cushion in our cash flow plan to cover anticipated (and unanticipated) expenses to be able to ride through potential long down waves, including a possibility that bitcoin could be down for a couple years longer... even while some of us are hoping (including yours truly) for some upwards action --- and even punishing of those who failed to invest or are in the BTC shorting business.



I knew i had to sell sometime this year but I was holding out as long as could. It sure felt so wrong though when when i clicked the sell button.


I also understand that you can plan cashflow for 6-18 months in advance and then attempt to see how thing play out, and sometimes it just not possible to stick with the original plan because some aspects of the cashflow are not comfortably playing out.  Anyhow, a lessoned learned is that it can be a sign of over investing if you have to sell a large amount of your holdings at a time that you do not prefer, and sometimes there can still be ways to ride it out... such as selling 10% or 20% rather than 50%... but anyhow each of us have to come to our determinations about our own situation and hopefully learn lessons from our mistakes... yet that does not take away from the desire of myself, and likely others who would like bitcoin to go into a punishing phase  of upwards movement because surely we have been visiting the $6k territory a lot in the last 6+ months.. going back to early February.. and so in some sense, there can be some feeling that BTC has spent enough time in this price arena... let's move onwards and upwards.. even if some peeps might not yet be ready.. even when there has been several allowable preparation months.
17624  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin blockchain Or Bitcoin price, which makes it the top cryptocurrency? on: August 28, 2018, 04:06:06 PM
In reality bitcoin is the only coin that really matters because of the way that it is set up.  It solves the byzantine general's problem and networking effects have been being built upon it since the genesis block... There are nine networking effects that are outlined by Trace Mayer, and you can easily look them up in order to better attempt to understand the importance of bitcoin and it's paradigm shifting contribution to securing value in a way that is outside of centralized authorities that has never been available before it, and might not even have been possible until the internet had reached a certain level of maturity in recent years.

bitcoins dominance and inspiration of 2009-2011 WAS based on the above..    
so from 2009-2011 yes bitcoins blockchain vs price. bitcoin was winning based on blockchan features, because the price was low compared to other currencies/mediums of exchange in the world, and the features bitcoin offered were far more valuable than its price
but..

2011-2013
then came altcoins that also used thee same solution. thus other coins utility of a decentralised network meant bitcoin no longer had a unique feature that any other currencies couldnt offer.

bitcoins dominance then became price and merchant utility. merchants didnt use litecoin as their "we accept.." paymnt method. but while other coins were offering faster confirmation average times or more data per block or more/less coin reward per block.. bitcoin started losing the utility race.

2013-2015
with less unique codebases of differing node clients, and the war against other 'generals' had started to rip(REKT) apart the byzantiines solution, thus losing bitcoins uniquenase, features and benfits further

2015-2018
and now the reliance on one source of new rule/upgrade path (core roadmap/mandatory upgrades) the whole utility of consensus(bysantines solution) has nearly disapeared completely due to this whole drama of the last 2 years.
and now merchant service tools are now opening their gates to other coins. so bitcoin is now losing the merchant adoption race too.
soo.. now it seems bitcoins only promoted 'feature' is first to market (which didnt play well for myspace or napstre)
leaving people to now only prompt the price as the reason to try inticing new people

now with all that said.
market cap and price are both illusions.
if i called 1000 apples shares as a 'cookingapple' (large apple) then the price per unit would be bigger.
if i made an altcoin of 5 trillion coins and sold 1 coin for $5 the market cap would be $5trillion.

think of it this way. look passed the ilusion of the basket terms of measure.
many people say that bitcoin is $6500 per unit and gold is only $1800 per unit(btc vs oz)...
but what if i told you bitcoin was only $0.0065 a unit and gold was $38k a unit. (bits vs KG)

so with people starting to measure bitcoin as ubtc(bits(100sat)) the price per unit will drop from ~$6500 per unit(BTC) to ~$0.0065 per unit(bits)
thus in future bitcoin will show as a under penny per unit price and other altcoins will hav a higher price per unit. and alts will have a higher market cap.

p.s i love bitcoin. but im a realist not an ass kisser. its far better to reveal the issues and hope the community wake up and then help sort the issue, rather than kiss ass, hide the problem and let it continue/get worse.

..
summary.
watch trace mayors SEVEN network effects video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3n6lLeuPQA
then ask in 2018 do all these 7 network effects still apply to bitcoin uniquely
in my view the only one remaining is point 4 (mining hashrate). which the cost of mining upholds the price support (the low of a year) where people refuse to sell below their cost of obtaining bitcoin


I am totally lost in this one, I need to go make some research so that I may be able to have something to say, but in any case, I'm glad I even convinced myself to asked the question baceuse I almost considered it as irrelevant to bring it up here, but I managed to convince myself to ask the question and here are several detailed explanations that would move me to make more research to understand Bitcoin more and it's associated technologies. Thanks for sharing

Yes... I already responded to franky1's points to assert that his framing of history and the issues is largely misleading, so hopefully your greater "research" into the matter will help you consider the matter in light of a multitude of bitcoin denigration spinning that remains in the space.. and franky1 has a track record of showing himself as a bitcoin denigrator that just throws out a bunch of nonsense hoping that some of it sticks.. in order to achieve his bitcoin denigration goals..
17625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2018, 06:58:00 AM


That's the spirit Rosewater!!!!!   I see you may have temporarily snapped out of your negativisms...    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
17626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2018, 06:55:29 AM
Shut up Hairy!  Don't jinx this with your prognostications.

It would be nice if bitcoin would go into a bit of a punishing phase.... to punish some of those folks waiting for cheaper coins... or those folks who are waiting for the alt coins to bring them lambos... .  I just don't know if bitcoin is quite ready for punishing phase.. but it would be nice.. a bit of a fantasy of mine to re-live the late 2017 upwards price movements that took a lot of waiting for lower prices folks for a bit of a surprise.

By the way, I seem to recall that a bit more than a week ago, Hairy had said that he had expected a bit of a pump to $7k or even $7,200-ish.. because BTC prices in the lower $6ks seemed to be a bit "oversold."... something like that.
17627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2018, 06:46:27 AM

If the documentary is "fuckwitted," then would there be much if any purpose in sharing it?  Why would any of us want to click on it?
17628  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2018, 12:44:11 AM
JayJuanGee, care to explain to the class why US govt asset Harry Dent is trying to trick people into buying shitcoins and prevent them from buying gold and silver?  A paid govt disinfo agent shilling for bitcoin and against metals.  I confronted your hero Anonymint with this fact because Anonymint shills for cryptocurrency and once stated an extreme dislike of Harry Dent.  He was completely unable to offer any type of rational explanation for why him and a US govt asset are shilling for the same thing and just throws a typical Anonymint tantrum.


I am not familiar with your Harry Dent reference.  Do you mind providing a link to what you are asserting to be some important supposed shilling?

By the way, anyone could consider Bitcoin to be a better investment than gold, silver and other PMs just based on certain practicality considerations, including portability, divisibility, security and ability to manage your holdings in a private kind of cross border way.  So, whatever trickery is supposedly going on that is luring unsuspected folks into bitcoin seems a bit of mystery to me, unless you provide some kind of reference about what you mean.
17629  Other / Meta / Re: Merit & new rank requirements on: August 27, 2018, 10:47:45 PM
Yes.  Some members advocate for demerits, but it really seems an unnecessary and petty kind of practice, and there seems to be other ways to punish bad posts/posters by 1) not giving merits, 2) substantively responding to the posts, 3) use the trust system 4) report the member (perhaps banning or suspension might be applied if egregious)

Yeah i dont know why they are really want some features like demerit. This place will be a battlefield since day 1 demerits introduced, if that ever happens. I agree with JJG, not giving merit is already a punishment for the bad posters. We just need to add some rules to mae the punishment hit even harder, like making a 1-5 merits requirement to be Jr. Member.

Likely after a bit more than 6 months of implementation, active members are kind of getting a hang for how this new merit system is playing into other forum systems such as activity level and quality of posts, and sure theymos had even mentioned the possibility of getting rid of the trust system or causing the forum's trust system to play less importance.  

IT seems likely that in the early stages of the merit system, some forum members made mistakes with the use of their merits or were a bit unclear about how to earn merits.. what kind of posting or where to post in order to increase the likelihood to earn merits.

Surely, I agree with any complaint or concern from newer members that the momentum of having merits increases a members ability to earn merits, but that is also kind of the way of the world, and many systems advantage folks who are either early contributors or if they earned value under earlier standards.. and when the rules change, sometimes there can be discrepancies based on the earlier rewarding of value.

I believe that if any member is active in the forum and wants to earn merits, and that member explores various areas of the forum that are of interest of that member, the member will figure out ways to earn merits - perhaps not earning merit as quickly as the assumptions of the system, such as averaging the earning of 1 merit per day, but even earning a few merits per week is going to allow for some decent and meaningful progress in ranking up with the passage of time.

I doubt that demerits would cause progress towards increasing substantive and meaningful forum postings, contributions and participation.
17630  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 27, 2018, 10:06:00 PM
Creditors can now (and should, or they'll get nothing) file the CR claims:
http://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201808_announcement_en.pdf

Done !  Grin
Side note: 6% interest rate per year on the cash claim, nice.

If this all works out as planned, 6% is definitely a fair rate of return for fiat. ... and yes, giving an additional opportunity to make claims is fair and also paying back bitcoin in bitcoin is fair too - even though there is going to be decently sized socializing of losses.
17631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 27, 2018, 04:51:36 PM
CFTC are loosening derivative clearing restrictions, looks like its all coming together for their derivative attack to go large scale.

https://www.cftc.gov/

Straight up invite to all institutions to join in the fuck BTC with futures game.

What if they all decide to go long? That won’t fuck bitcoin will it or am I missing something?

I'm not an expert on the way institutional fuckery happens I have just been seeing this coming for a long time and they keep paving the way.

You still seem to be implying a theory that if more tools are made available for downside manipulation then those "more tools" are going to be attempted to be used by the manipulators to push BTC prices downward.  The question becomes whether those kinds of tools would be sufficiently and incrementally more powerful than other dynamics creating upwards BTC price pressures.  Sure in times like these people (even relatively stronger HODLers) begin to feel 50/50 -ish, and additional actual downwards price movement could cause them to be shook from additional coins.
17632  Other / Meta / Re: Merit & new rank requirements on: August 27, 2018, 04:22:23 PM
Regarding demerit, I really think it would be abused to "punish" people you disagree with, rather than punishing low quality posts. I can't even imagine the drama it would create on the forums with tears and hurt feelings.

Yes.  Some members advocate for demerits, but it really seems an unnecessary and petty kind of practice, and there seems to be other ways to punish bad posts/posters by 1) not giving merits, 2) substantively responding to the posts, 3) use the trust system 4) report the member (perhaps banning or suspension might be applied if egregious)
17633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 27, 2018, 05:03:01 AM
Met a guy on a flight who was telling me about his Ripple.

Said he couldn't figure out why it kept going down when it was the only crypto that banks were really using.

I didn't have the heart to tell him. 

I bought a load of XRP last year, still holding it, quite funny how crap it is tbh. I thought it might be worth something eventually. Crazy how it’s crashed.

You must have bought your XRP during the pump, rather than pre-pump.

I have never had the heart (or will power) to buy any XRP... I mean it was pretty obvious that they were constricting the supply with the founders holding well over half of the supply... so quite the manipulation going on. 

With other shitcoins, I did break down and buy a bit of ETH.. maybe 15 ETH or so, and now I only hold about 4 ETH.  I don't really care if ETH goes to zero..

I still hold around 3 BCH.. I have never bought BCH, so far, but I still hold 3-ish from those that I did not sell or was not able to sell.  I don't care if they go to zero, either.
17634  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 26, 2018, 08:46:40 AM


Your scenario seems plausible. The current rally is lacklustre. But there is no catalyst (yet) for a sell off and such sell off going through $5,000.

Bear markets take so much patience .....

The catalyst is breaking downwards through the exponential trend line from 2012 that supported the cryptowinter (shown above as the rising trend line).  It is somewhat serendipitous that the currrent falling trend line from peak, current support ~$5700 and historic exponential trend line from 2012 all meet at a single point.

 We don’t have enough buying pressure to sustain the 2012 exponential trend line and we should get a death cross as a result. When we break downwards through that trend line, the newspapers will say Bitcoin is dead.  That will give us enough selling pressure to break down past $5k for a capitulation.

Why assume that the price is going to break below that 2012 exponential trend line and if that is really the point in which there will be more downward?  In other words, I will believe it when I see it, and there is not any kind of strong evidence that the price has to break below such supposed trendline or that such trendline breakage would cause further down like you suggest.... probably we need a bit more than bitcoin is dead, but if we get a hacking of an exchange or some other nonsense like that then perhaps more down could come, perhaps... certainly not a given.. and we gotta see the bearwhale cards played to see if they can play such calamity well or come up with something good, BIGGER THAN China bans bitcoin.
17635  Other / Meta / Re: Merit & new rank requirements on: August 25, 2018, 11:38:00 PM
Can you illustrate, from where do the merits actually come from ?

First read OP (which means Opening Post) of this thread, and if you still have questions, then perhaps read posts of the first couple of pages of this thread, and if you still have questions, then maybe ask your refined questoin based on the information that you have understood from those posts.
17636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 25, 2018, 09:30:10 PM


Sorry for the ambiguity of my question.  I was confused about what aspect of Bitmex news/happenings you were referring to.. rather than the picture, itself.
17637  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 25, 2018, 08:55:22 PM
Yesterday on Bitmex



Link or it did not happen.   Wink
17638  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 25, 2018, 08:50:55 PM


agree total with 2018   Grin

only the new highs may come faster  maybe ho knows  Roll Eyes

and i will stay a bagholder Wink of them precious coins

I agree with the overall concept of a cycle that is upcoming, but the timeline for the depicted cycle does not seem to be well though through or realistic (even though it could happen). 

I don't necessarily agree that we are going to see more bottoms this year, or that it is an essential ingredient, even though it could happen.

I also don't believe that it is realistic that we are going to see 3-4 years of a bull market.. seems more likely that we will see exponential runs, which seems to be traits of a relatively nascent market (system), so it is quite possible that we could experience 2-3 upward runs before 2024, and with that even extended periods of down too, before 2024...   Remember a halvening in 2020 and another one in 2024?

So, yeah, there is some logic to considerations that with increasing market caps of bitcoin and other cryptos (and yeah we are mostly talking about bitcoin but those other pump and dump copy cats cannot be ignored) both bull and bear runs will drag out longer, but still we are a whole hell of a long way away from a decently large enough adoption that makes volatility a lot less and manipulation a lot less... Get us into the $500k to $1million per coin and above area before we start to contemplate any kind of possibility of meaningful price stability - rather than anticipated violent volatility, FOMO, effectiveness of FUD and attempts at manipulation (physical and informational).
17639  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Hard disk capacity will become a bottleneck in the development of Bitcoin on: August 25, 2018, 07:46:05 PM
It's not BitcoinCore "full node" that takes all that space but "Bitcoin blockchain". Full size to date is 178 GB[1].
If you are upset about that space you can:

 - use  SPV wallet: You do not need to download the entire blockchain.
 - use prune: don’t need to download old blocks.

With the evolution of technology, I do not expect 200 GB to be a large space, in the past, the hard disk was about 80 gigabytes. "also, fast internet connection."
 
[1] https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/blocks-size

I agree with you hugeblack.

OP seems to be making some kind of exaggerated bullshit claims. Of course, the blockchain space is going to grow over time, and part of the rationale to keep the blocksize limits low is to keep the whole chain from becoming too BIG, but also to lessen latency and bottleneck (to use OP's word) problems in the network verification and confirmation of blocks.  

Of course, some solutions are to NOT store the whole block and NOT to run a full node, but also even the desire to run a full node is relatively NOT that expensive and regular peeps can do it with relatively old processors.. and we can even assume that the blockchain will grow to a terabyte within 5-10 years, and still that seems completely reasonable and affordable for regular peeps, given the already inexpensive availability of such storage on regular consumer computers for far less than $1k... .which is even affordable in poverty stricken areas (even though network band with might be a potential BIGGER issue) that requires more sophistication in terms of keeping a connection.
17640  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 25, 2018, 06:14:35 AM


Mmm opening WO, and first thing to see Just an Arrow UP thats what i like

Not only an arrow up but the ONLY option.

 And now with the call light on - which I thought was important.  I also used #FF9900 as the base colour - which is Bitcoin orange. 
CCMF!!!




Wouldn't it be nicer with a translucent bitcoin logo in the middle of the orange?
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