This thread is so epic I don't even.

Malleability pun, pure form capitulation, prescience, and an insanely insightful newbie first post.

Trifectas everywhere just felt so inadequate.

I think there is a subtle but relevant difference in the market cap of XRP and market cap in the traditional sense.

Traditionally market cap is a measure applied to stocks. It's accepted that $last_price * $float is an abstract value because of course, the act of selling would change last_price therefore... stuff.

On the whole though, where stocks are concerned the $last_price was arrived at as a result of every share having been traded on the open market (yes there are caveats, but the principle is that price discovery was largely down to market action on the majority float).

The same factors apply to all stocks so the fact that market cap has no real literal meaning is not relevant, market cap as a relative measure is relevant, because (on the whole) its measured the same for all companies.

XRP on the other hand is very different, the significant majority of them have never been traded on the open market. Price discovery has only ever taken place on the volume that has been 'traded'. 30 day volume is around 75m, which is 0.075% of 'total' XRP. I don't know what the total volume ever traded might be (I guess this would be akin to "Ripple Days Destroyed"?) but i think its fair to say that given the monthly volume, it's probably a very small percentage - 12 * 0.075 would give us 1%. Given that this is very unlikely to represent unique xrps traded, I think its a generous figure.

That volume would be more akin to a typical stock's float. That means the market cap is probably more like $15m relatively speaking.

Not quite the behemoth it likes to think it is.

A committee? pfft. All that hassle of having to get more than one person to agree, the pesky distinction between majority and consensus? pit pat piffy wing wong wang just make it one person with sole control over whether or not to allow any transaction they feel like. So long as they are trustworthy, I'm sure it will all work out for the best for everyone.

...and thus it probably wasn't.

Although I don't think we will, I would not be surprised if we did.

Nor would I be surprised if we went back down to test the previous ATH ~$266.

Nor would I be surprised if we doubled overnight then broke through the current ATH on massive volume and hit 5 figures by june.

All you have to do is make sure that you are ready for whatever craziness happens.

Best call of the thread so far. I do indeed like to sip scotch whilst waiting

me i'd discard the outliers. that would probably upset people though



mid april proper breakout from mid 500's on strong volume. we could always spike below that at some point but i reckon we are done with the selloff on the whole and are just waiting for the reversal.

I also don't think we are going to go exponential this time round. I think its going to be a long steady climb, that is going to cause much waling and gnashing of teeth, everyone will remain scared there could be a selloff at any time, and thus people will regularly sell off 'calling the top' waiting for the reversion to the downtrend.

all pretty standard market psychology really. we'll hit 4 figures this year, but it won't be easy for people to hold during the ride up.

Not knocking them my TA was hardly 'advanced' and somewhat tongue in cheek.

I think that is the point. You seem to think you can win, I assume I am going to lose and position myself accordingly. Don't trade to win, trade with consequences in mind. This is my "1 step trading plan".

1. Assume all money you buy with you will lose 100% of, for real, and write it off as sunk cost.

It's all about losses. There are two kinds and only one is important. Paper and real. Paper losses don't matter, only real ones. So you got to make sure never to get real losses. That means never sell underwater. "oh but I can buy back cheaper". yeah sure you can, but you might not.

What you got there is a confirmed defacto real loss. Yes you have some fiat to buy with, and you might get it cheaper, but you might get it more expensive, you are effectively back at square one though, you have some money (less than you started with) and you have to make a decision as to what you are are going to 'lose' it all on next

Paper losses can stay paper losses forever, until it goes to zero and the stock is delisted, its not a real loss. If you recall, in step 1 you already lost it all 'for real' so whilst ever you only have paper loss, you are in a better position. You always have X no of whatever you bought, the price is irrelevant, the price distracts you from accumulating. The price makes you do silly things.

If you have a long position deep underwater, no-one is forcing you to sell - you want to. The market wants you to. You can hodl that bad boy forever. You will never have less of what you bought.

This brings me to shorting. Shorting is stupid, its 100% guaranteed negative EV. Your upside is limited your downside is unlimited, and the relative profit/loss from a short position are exponentially opposed. You have a stock at $1 you are short for a dollar a pip. As the price drops, it gets harder and harder to make $10 more. Day 1 it has to drop 10% to 0.90, Day 2 it has to drop 12.5%, Day 3 14.3% etc. Whereas to lose $10 requires the same 10% on day 1, but the next $10 loss only requires 9.1%, the next $10 8.3% etc

If you short, then there is a chance that you will be forced to sell. If you are forced to sell then you can also state with 100% confidence that you will lose the *most* money you could have possibly lost. The margin call is the darling of all brokers, why would you play right into their hands.

Every decision you make is pretty much 50/50. Everything about the market is designed to make you make the worst choice to tip the odds against you. Don't do what the market wants you to do, do the opposite, and do it a bit at a time, that way the odds should tip your way.

I try to remain indifferent to price action at all times. Everything I feel about the market I try to ignore, until such time as it starts to overwhelm me. That's when I know the market *really* wants me to do something, that's when I know it's time to do the opposite. I then do the opposite, all the time remembering step 1, and knowing full well that its probably 50/50 whether I was right.

Here is my analysis:

The price went up, then it went down a bit, then it went up and down. I think this indicates that over the next few days the price will go up and down. You should probably buy if you have cash you don't mind losing, and sell if you are short of cash.

Shit. Wrong thread, that should have been in trading 101.

I see your sense of self importance his still intact. Good for you. If reading comprehension fails, then just pretend you know more than everyone else. I've got another great strategy, buy on one site and short on another you can't lose!  

I don't know. Probably higher than now, but maybe not.

It could all go to zero tomorrow.

As long as you remember that, and are cool with it if it happens, then you'll be fine.

And just to totally tempt fate, I did give fair warning

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.msg5469510#msg5469510

you can get it same day depending on who you bank with (urgent SEPA, but it costs 30GPB)

but in answer to the general question of "wheres all this buying coming from" did anyone really think that the gajillion dollars everyone "made" panic selling was going to be withdrawn and spent on hookers and blow?

its probably mostly waiting to buy back in cheaper. along with all the new money floating around that thought it might like a piece but was just waiting for the right time to buy.

like oda said "all the monkeys are just looking at each others bottom" or at least I think it was something like that

holding out for the best price, is just the other side of the coin of catching the falling knife.

if you didn't already do your averaging down during the latest ~70% off sale (70% interesting number it might very well be 68.2% depending on how you are measuring!) when everyone was shitting their pants that bitcoin was doomed (and I'm sure many still are)... well then I think you may have been looking at the wrong indicators. In fact the best TA opinion I read recently was the one that was correlating movement with phases of the moon. Human's are animals, evolution is just extra layers of paint on the same canvas.

now in the interests of fairness if you want to talk about *my* mistakes then just bring up mtgox and/or bitcoinbuilder I'm a big boy though. I knew what I was getting myself in to

full disclosure: currently 320% bitcoin and 0% fiat.

all that chart to draw lines on, and you pick the tiny bit at the end

No, really there is no uptrend /trollface

*holds telescope to bad eye*

"I see no uptrend"

If the cash balances on gox don't match the deposits in their bank accounts, maybe the root of the problem was an exploit that allowed for the creation of goxbux.

Would explain the price run up too... *shrugs*

oblig...

itt caputalation. now *I'm* calling the bottom