So, did the FBI dump those coins it had? I just happened to look on stamp today and seen 100k of volume this morning. LOL
Can I get some of that stuff you're on? LOL |
|
|
|
I would say that the timing of the cycles in bitcoin is similar to that of a momentum stock. Look at a comparison of bitcoin with DDD for example:  |
|
|
|
Thanks, I will use that during the runup $1,000->$5,000. With 10:1 leverage and 1 million initial investment, that'll be... 40M profit. I doubt that you'll ever get that kind of money from those guys. They're like a grown up version of mtgox. |
|
|
|
Dear hitbtc,
Will the 500 btc limit for unverified accounts remain unchanged regardless of the btc price? If not, will your users be given a warning prior to freezing their account?
Dear damnek, Currently the limits are captured and will remain as they are. We find no reasonable cause to change them. Enjoy your trading! Thank you for choosing our service, The "hitbtc" team  Dear hitbtc, I respectfully ask you to answer my second question, in case you decide to change the limits for unverified accounts, will I be given the chance to withdraw my funds prior to freezing my account and requiring further verification? We have seen these practices before with other bitcoin exchanges, hence I'm asking for clarification. Thank you in advance. |
|
|
|
How many other examples of a 99% speculative bubble have we have in history other than BTC that are NOT pyramid/ponzi schemes?
each time delusional speculators pump BTC up to a silly price, would it really surprise you if the consolidation phase was always the same length roughly?
bubbles are all the same, a bunch of delusional speculators. It would be interesting to compare all speculative bubbles in history to find an average consolidation period length, but we cant do this because most bubbles never recover OR are not entirely speculator drive (fundamentals affect the price)
Perhaps the explanation for a steady sequence of boom bust cycles is that this is the first time it has been subject to occur, and we are watching speculators in their natural environment in a way never seen before.
Here are some examples: http://2dyr4w3trph93kswidi3cpln2x.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/pennystockingslides75-841.pdf |
|
|
|
Hi,
could you explain the different "verification level" ?
Thanks
Dear Italiacoin, "hitbtc" has different verification levels: Basic, Verified and Trusted. Basic level has the following monthly limits: $10000 / 10000 / ฿500. In case a Customer wants to be eligible for higher monthly limits ($100000 / 100000 / ฿5000) he should follow the instructions under Become a verified customer section. Please feel free to contact us on support@hitbtc.com regarding any questions you may have about this message. Dear hitbtc, Will the 500 btc limit for unverified accounts remain unchanged regardless of the btc price? If not, will your users be given a warning prior to freezing their account? |
|
|
|
The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.
Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.
Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.
But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time. EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low? 2011-12-6 onwards. That was 15 days after the bottom of 2011. 2013-10-7 onwards. That was 90 days after the bottom of 7/2013. So if we are in 2011, the price is set to double now, but stay contained afterwards. If 2013, there'll be a plateau first and then rocket. I respect your analyzes and your comments, but I think we are in 2014...I think each time it is unique bubble and unique crash...i still don't understand why it is still coming in similiar timing pattern and i actually believe the next bubble will occur during june-august, but i still think that every time it is just many coincidences put together and every time it is unique... We don't know where the price would be if there was no MtGox DDOS attack last april, no China rally, no China crash, no MTGOX crash etc...I undersand the argument the price of BTC must go up if there is demand since it is scarce, but i don't understand how this can happen again and again in similiar pattern...You can't possible predict China rally, MTgox DDOS attacks, MTGOX crash (ok this was predictable long time, but still not 100%) How would you explain it? I think for the next rally we would need Wall Street money and i really believe it will come in the right time when we should start to rally, but how is this even possible? I don't get it... In the end, it is that the people who trade bitcoin that make up the price of bitcoin. Since we're kind of in uncharted waters, we tend to look back at historical data to see how bitcoin used to walk through this seemingly periodical cycle. The cycle looks slightly different each time to make it unpredictable enough in order to shake out weak traders, but at the same time it is the law of human greed that we see take place, so I believe that we'll continue to see these cycles for a while. The traders as a collective are surprisingly good at setting the fair price and predicting when "wall street money" will enter the market. It seems that this cycle is taking longer than the other ones, but it looks like we'll be right on track with the recovery for Q4 of 2014 when the first bitcoin fund is going to be publicly traded. |
|
|
|
A 4k buy with maximum slippage right at the end of a wedge. The guy had plenty of time to buy during the wedge and instead chooses to buy when it hurts his wallet the most. Looks like manipulation to me.
It's crazy how the entire community is obsessed with a few sites that in reality combined probably can't even match the volume of bitstamp. This is the new mtgox and people just love manipulation.. |
|
|
|
You or someone should do this, sounds like a great project.
The next step I think would be to create a thread in the alt-coin section and reference it in bitcoin discussion, speculation, and reddit. This would get people thinking. Then a bit later you clone the Ethereum website, explaining your proposed changes. The cryptocurrency market suddenly realizes that this is a credible threat. The Ethereum IPO is not taken as seriously as it otherwise would, and people continue to shift away from viewing alt-coins as get-rich-quick schemes, and onto viewing them as experimental platforms needed for the good of the community as a whole. If this catches on, new alt coins will need to use the current unspent bitcoin outputs to have a hope of success (otherwise they'll be killed by a clone). This means that people can just invest in bitcoin, and be confident that they will be piggybacked on new important innovations. EDIT: And like Adrian-X said, this "incentivises holding ones coins as opposed to leaving them in an exchange, or an EFT." Peter R, this is devious as hell, which is to say, i like it. 1. it gets rid of the #1 objection to participating in Ethereum; no dev fees or premine. the Bitcoin community could not say no to free æther. 2. it sets up a head to head competition btwn ethereum and æthereum. æthereum wins btwn the 2 b/c of the free distribution despite the devs threatening to stay with Ethereum. but whether either of them lasts long term will depend on it's merits. 3. it could set off a Bitcoin rally in the weeks before the Big Bang event as investors buy BTC in an attempt to get a larger share of free æther. longer term, as you say, it could be the altcoin killer. 4. Ethereum devs could defect to æthereum as their IPO implodes and they see the possibility to pick up cheap æther as it's dumped after the Big Bang. but only if they truly believe in Ethereum concepts. you too could pick up cheap æther if you decide to develop the initial æthereum. 5. it would be a great non threatening to Bitcoin way of testing turing complete. 6. even if devs stayed with Ethereum and developed versions 2,3, etc. since it's open source, æthereum could just co-opt the code. i realize nothing i've outlined above is different than what you've already said. just needed to solidify the concepts in my own mind. i definitely think it's worth trying. edit: the great thing about this is it's cheap to implement with little to no risk. just some time and some code. the upside is enormous even if æthereum fails b/c it probably drags down Ethereum with it and other altcoins liberating the funds wasted in that space to be invested into Bitcoin. I think Vitalik just shit his pants. :-) Just watch him say that æthereum is not fair. Yes. I think we've accomplished something here  As a side-effect, some people will probably start pulling their bitcoins out of exchanges to make sure that their share is recognized by æthereum, which might expose some fractional reserves. edit: wording |
|
|
|
Fact about Bitcoin
It does not matter, how much you paid for your bitcoins. It only matters, how many you have.
For this reason people, corporations and states who wait until "it grows bigger" are not acting smartly because they could buy the same amount for less now. Especially now, I mean this week.
This is actually a very solid argument in a binary scenario. I have encountered this before in biotech stocks where small companies meander in single digits until they either zero out OR strike "gold" and appreciate 1000%. Because market has essentially no information it can rely on, these companies undergo incredible volatility UNTIL the pivotal event and the trick is to accumulate shares regardless of price. After the binary even, you can either sigh/cry or collect the spoils/leave some for future growth. I make some money by creating option strategies around news events on stocks like that. Basically I sell premium (which is high in biotechs) and create a strategy that puts the odds in my favour. If you do this over and over again you should be profitable. edit: I'm desperately waiting for bitcoin option markets to become live |
|
|
|
Some bullish thoughts: If we enter the double digits range itīs probaby to late to sell, i can īt see us stayin in single digits/lower double digits for more than a few days. But hey after all, itīs the honey badger isnīt it?  Keep talking, I'd like to get a few more at cheaper prices |
|
|
|
Obviously, there's no real science to it. It's just sort of a feeling I developed from reading as much commentary from participants as possible, and by assessing my own psychology. In fact, paying pretty close attention to the pain I feel as the market declines has been pretty insightful. I like to think of myself as a hodler, but when I've started seriously thinking, "maybe it's time I get out, because this is getting scary...", I've managed to take stock of that, clam down, and be remarkably close to picking and re-entering at the bottom. I've learned that emotional investing can be a real killer, and I've been most successful when I fight against what are very real and very powerful emotional responses to being a market participant.
Absolutely. I started trading because of bitcoin and it took me almost a year to grasp that concept. At that point I became successful. |
|
|
|
|
The larger marketcap and a multitude of exchanges should dampen the exuberance a bit. The final run on the last top was less extreme than the ones we've seen before, and therefore I'm expecting that the same will hold for the final part of this decline.
|
|
|
|
lol, one of the many blockchain.info glitches |
|
|
|
|
wow you guys are really pushing hard now.. we must be close
|
|
|
|
|
I'm starting to get tired of this
|
|
|
|
How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?
I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...
I doubt a financial collapse like '08/'09 would affect the price of bitcoin that much. Maybe it would lower bitcoin prices like it did to gold prices during '08/'09. We are headed for another stock market crash and a recession in the the next couple of years (and for the poor/middle class the recession is still not over) but absolutely nothing catastrophic will happen in the next few years. It's ironic that this "banker" makes that comment about bitcoin, which was in fact born out of the 08/09 crisis (I'm referring to satoshi's famous genesis block message). |
|
|
|
Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.
Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames. Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it. If you are reluctant, I could go first..... but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me...
all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish, could be next year its 250 then the next 3000 could 5000 could be 100,000 in 3 years lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,.... no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up amen brother |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
