Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rpietila]

windjc is wealthy?

I think so..

[roslinpl]

windjc is wealthy?

not for long, if he takes the bet 

This is great bet Maybe he can bet with me too? I want $50 free money

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Something is wrong with our automated charts

From few hours images don't show

[Tzupy]

why are so many poeple convinced bitcoin will drop?
bears.... they never learn.

Why are so many people convinced bitcoin will raise during the next months?
Bulls ... they never learn.

Joking aside, the bet is not fair to rpietila. Just look at the 1d charts (I've let 1 month of space ahead):

[adamstgBit]

  sure but, if everyone registered to coinbase hits market buy with 12$ bears are DOOMED

[uhoh]

BTC is at $460. None of us in our wildest dreams would have imagined that 2 years ago.

Seems bullish to me.

[rpietila]

windjc is wealthy?

not for long, if he takes the bet 

This is great bet Maybe he can bet with me too? I want $50 free money

Before anything else happens, we must agree on escrow, and both send the bet money to him.

Then finish the rules of the bet, which may require changes if price changes now for example. Also the 2 days is important. (windjc can also transfer money if he wants). Typically it's just too difficult to agree on things, but this is quite promising <thumbsup>

Joking aside, the bet is not fair to rpietila. Just look at the 1d charts (I've let 1 month of space ahead):

In 2014, only 8 days have hit $435.

If it hits both 435 and 500, it is a tie.

90 days is a long time, I would say it's near certain to hit 500 and about 80% certain to hit 435.

I don't think it is unfair to me.

[adamstgBit]

BTC is at $460. None of us in our wildest dreams would have imagined that 2 years ago.

Seems bullish to me.

and its not like bitcoin doesn't deserve this market price, so much has been accomplished  in 2 years its kinda ridiculous.

if anything bitcoin is undervalued due to so much FUD surrounding it ATM.

[uhoh]

BTC is at $460. None of us in our wildest dreams would have imagined that 2 years ago.

Seems bullish to me.

and its not like bitcoin doesn't deserve this market price, so much has been accomplished  in 2 years its kinda ridiculous.

if anything bitcoin is undervalued due to so much FUD surrounding it ATM.

Agreed,

Hey, I thought you froze yourself!

[Lowryder]

2 bank days?

thats in like 100hours

bitcoin will be at 520 by then!

 

That is because Bitstamp.

windjc need 1.1M to take it to 435.
I need 1.45M for 500.

If he has lots of money, he will catch my bid at 435.01, and I will lose the bet unless 30 days turns it back up. Buying slippage-free at such a good price is still ok, but losing a bet hurts my pretty face.

Can I put in a short position of 1M USD with 1:17 leverage? Platform is plus500.
Thats ~ 38000btc

Will it make a dent?

"What's the most you've ever lost on a coin toss?"

[JayJuanGee]

windjc is wealthy?

not for long, if he takes the bet 

This is great bet Maybe he can bet with me too? I want $50 free money

Before anything else happens, we must agree on escrow, and both send the bet money to him.

Then finish the rules of the bet, which may require changes if price changes now for example. Also the 2 days is important. (windjc can also transfer money if he wants). Typically it's just too difficult to agree on things, but this is quite promising <thumbsup>

I think that you guys have NOT agreed to several of the terms, yet, and there cannot be NO bet without clarification of the terms, and escrow is one of the terms.  You have not even agreed whether 30 or 90 days, and 30 days seems more than enough time to allow the bet to run - however, it does NOT matter what I think if you two are willing to agree to 90 days, then so be it.


I do NOT understand why 2 days is necessary to solidify, but it may just be that you are hedging your bet which is fine if a person can recognize ways to hedge.

Of course, the bet could be completely in BTC.. with a dollar value so for example the equivalent of $50k valued on x date in BTC either way... but it sounds as if you are talking about much greater amounts.  I am NOT clear about whether it was 50BTC or 100BTC.. which would or $250k or $500k depending on the value of the BTC.

[octaft]

Since you are too chicken s*** to make a bet, here's one for you.

Bet $50k with of btc
Duration 30 days

If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity.

Somebody listened, yay!

[rpietila]

Can I put in a short position of 1M USD with 1:17 leverage? Platform is plus500.
Thats ~ 38000btc

Will it make a dent?

I was thinking of that. First off - I don't think they offer more than 2:1 leverage, they got burnt pretty badly in the runup in Nov-13.

Second, the slippage you take is about equal to the bet amount, unless you can start an avalanche (which I don't believe).

Third, the bet is not won by just hitting the opposite goal. You need to defend yours for 90 days.

=> You can perhaps use this to make the final push and manipulate the market as usual, but not make it +EV for you

[rpietila]

I do NOT understand why 2 days is necessary to solidify, but it may just be that you are hedging your bet which is fine if a person can recognize ways to hedge.

2 days is needed to transfer enough fiat to Bitstamp and possible other platforms that might be used to alter the bet's outcome.

[Lowryder]

Can I put in a short position of 1M USD with 1:17 leverage? Platform is plus500.
Thats ~ 38000btc

Will it make a dent?

I was thinking of that. First off - I don't think they offer more than 2:1 leverage, they got burnt pretty badly in the runup in Nov-13.

Second, the slippage you take is about equal to the bet amount, unless you can start an avalanche (which I don't believe).

Third, the bet is not won by just hitting the opposite goal. You need to defend yours for 90 days.

=> You can perhaps use this to make the final push and manipulate the market as usual, but not make it +EV for you

http://www.plus500.com/Instruments/BTCUSD?ncr=True

[rpietila]

http://www.plus500.com/Instruments/BTCUSD?ncr=True

Thanks, I will use that during the runup $1,000->$5,000. With 10:1 leverage and 1 million initial investment, that'll be... 40M profit.

[Dabs]

Who needs escrow? I can do it, but only the BTC part. If you need me to fix it to fiat, then I'll have to exchange it first, then buy back the BTC 30 or 90 days later. (I have high limits on the exchange in my sig, see the about section.)

And there's also a charity related thread in my sig since last year. Over 3000 meals donated. You rich folks can probably beat that with one transaction.

[aminorex]

Third, the bet is not won by just hitting the opposite goal. You need to defend yours for 90 days.

Since the win should depend more on market forces than manipulative power, to be interesting, I think this point makes a powerful case for the 90 day mark.

This has been great fun to watch but I hope you fail to agree terms and just make the donation anyhow.  While I expect rp to win, and that is my prefered outcome (book talk), I fear the consequences if he should think his face too pretty.

(Please, no rich man's charities.  I keep hoping for an army of diseased miserables to storm the next Met gala and eat the hedgefund wives.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation