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18281  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: August 02, 2011, 02:39:13 AM
Quote
It's not all due to banksters. Machines pushed workers from agriculture and production to service industries. Now self-service terminals and (increasingly artificial intelligent) robots will push workers out of the service industries at an exponential rate. Many workers have nowhere to go. We just adapt like we have done in the past. I'm sure it will eventually be better for us all.

how do the unemployed adapt?  larger unemployment checks?  oh wait...

Actually I think that is one of the good solution. And of course those paychecks comes from tax (or debt)

Raising tax might stress business, so it should not be taxed on income or revenue, but rather on cash: The more cash holded, the more tax, this also encourage companies not hoarding cash and activly spend and invest

how do higher unemployment checks encourage going back to work?  just the opposite.

saving is not necessarily bad either by individuals or companies.
18282  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. Dollar Plummets as Bernanke Suggests Further Easing on: August 01, 2011, 10:07:51 PM
A principled determined President can get practically anything he wants.
18283  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: August 01, 2011, 10:03:07 PM
Good topic and I'm also discussing same thing in another column: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=33267.0

I think the QEs have done quite good, but not enough, the big problem is that printed money should lend to those companies who are willing to create new jobs, instead of lending to those big companies who just hoard cash and cutting employee (they do this because their market analysis showing the market is going down), but the current credit system prefer lend to these cash hoarders

We already had the technology that can serve almost everyone, but still lots of people suffering, it is definitely a system problem, not technology



last month i sat down with an investment manager for BofA who was interested in what i thought about the market. 

he told me flat out that the banks refuse to lend the bailout money to consumers b/c they consider them a bad credit risk and also b/c they get free interest from the Fed on their excess reserves OR they can invest those same monies into commodities or stocks.  Voila!  Stock market ramp from hell based on speculation of higher prices, not real economic output.
18284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: July 31, 2011, 06:37:35 PM
bitcoins were being sold for over a million USD per one at MtGox today so this thread failed.

+1

for the same reason the snills said BTC went to zero, yes we can say BTC went to >1M USD!

you lose.
18285  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MtGox is fine people on: July 31, 2011, 05:21:33 PM
yes, he took care of this instantly.

actually i feel sorry for those who sold impulsively
18286  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / MtGox is fine people on: July 31, 2011, 05:13:07 PM
https://support.mtgox.com/entries/20323996-mt-gox-system-update-troubles
18287  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MyBitcoin.com, where did it go? on: July 31, 2011, 04:47:44 PM
The problem I have with your merchant system is that your site is extremely slow processing bitcoin deposits.
Often it is 1 hour or more, and mybitcoin did it in a few seconds.
Yes I realize the risk in this, but the services I sell are time sensitive, I cannot hold it for an hour to see if the customer pays or not.
It would be great your API could instantly tell me when a payment is received (even if I have to wait for it to be confirmed in block chain before I can spend it).

We can make that happen too, a first notification when payment is on the bitcoin network. However we cannot guarantee it'll be confirmed (that's up to miners).

MT; if both buyer and merchant have mtgox accts couldn't you make the tx's instantaneous?

Yep, in /that/ case it's instant and non-reversible.

MT:  so whats the official explanation for this AM's bug?
18288  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MyBitcoin.com, where did it go? on: July 31, 2011, 04:15:15 PM
clearly Jan Vornberger of Instawallet is a trusted community member who won't run off with your money.  in the past he's responded quickly to emails from me of a non IW nature.  he also runs Bitcoin Monitor which is a staple of the community as well.  he's constantly innovating and appears to be of a cheerful nature.

Does he use twitter? Or have a status page not hosted here?

Jan Vornberger <jan@uos.de>
18289  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MyBitcoin.com, where did it go? on: July 31, 2011, 03:59:06 PM
The problem I have with your merchant system is that your site is extremely slow processing bitcoin deposits.
Often it is 1 hour or more, and mybitcoin did it in a few seconds.
Yes I realize the risk in this, but the services I sell are time sensitive, I cannot hold it for an hour to see if the customer pays or not.
It would be great your API could instantly tell me when a payment is received (even if I have to wait for it to be confirmed in block chain before I can spend it).

We can make that happen too, a first notification when payment is on the bitcoin network. However we cannot guarantee it'll be confirmed (that's up to miners).

MT; if both buyer and merchant have mtgox accts couldn't you make the tx's instantaneous?
18290  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MyBitcoin.com, where did it go? on: July 31, 2011, 03:49:48 PM
not that I know of ..  instawallet .. but that site scares me Smiley   I threw coins up there one time and closed the browser without bookmarking... LOL!

That's not instawallet's fault.. it's mine of course.. but still without any recourse to get my coins back it's somewhat scary in my opinion.

People can still use Mt.Gox for this, coupled with the yubikey (or the HOTP option we'll provide monday) it should be quite secure and there are no fees (not like with the "first bitcoin bank" canadian scam).

By the way I'd guess mybitcoin is acting pro (see http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=22221.0 if anyone remembers it) so stuff should be back soon (well, I'll avoid saying anything negative, it'll be taken badly again)

MT.  congrats on mobile solutions!!
18291  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MyBitcoin.com, where did it go? on: July 31, 2011, 03:41:39 PM
Your wallet.dat.

That is not an answer.

clearly Jan Vornberger of Instawallet is a trusted community member who won't run off with your money.  in the past he's responded quickly to emails from me of a non IW nature.  he also runs Bitcoin Monitor which is a staple of the community as well.  he's constantly innovating and appears to be of a cheerful nature.
18292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: July 31, 2011, 03:21:02 PM
So far my prediction has held.  It's pretty much been holding in the $13 range for some time and buying support remains weak.

i will make an as equally bold prediction:  BTC will never go down to $6 again.
18293  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: July 30, 2011, 07:27:30 PM
gross public debt
18294  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Questions for BTCinch on: July 30, 2011, 05:39:48 PM
Congratulations Ira on the launch of your new site!  Excellent interview on OnlyOneTv.

1.  what bank do you plan on using for ACH? 
2.  when you say you don't charge merchants for converting btwn BTC and USD how can you profitably do this given your immediate need to buy/sell via the exchanges?  if BTC gets volatile again i would worry about you getting caught like the Madhatter did with eMansipator.   http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8258.0;all
3.  do you plan on offering an online widget?
4.  how can you legally act like a Dwolla or Paypal?
5.  doesn't ACH limit you to US tx's?
6.  how do you plan to transmit fiat cash to foreigners?  wire, check?
18295  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTCleaning Services. on: July 30, 2011, 05:30:36 PM
thank goodness not another laundry service; oh wait!  is it?
18296  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: We should rename "miner" as "auditor". on: July 30, 2011, 05:27:48 PM
Scenarios:
1. if cornered into talking about mining or blockchain, just say "its one huge verification network for financial tx's"
2. if they say "isn't that a huge waste of electricity and computer work?"; just say "not compared to the waste of the banksters and financial system in place today which the blockchain replaces".
3. if they ask "can't the gov't shut it down?" just say "they can't".  never mind the 51% attack since thats a theoretical concept that is highly improbable if not impossible.
4. if cornered into talking about Satoshi just say "i've never met him but i know the head dev is from Princeton (i know, i know but the MSM loves this sh*t whether we do or not) and the rest of them are wicked smart."
18297  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] The World's First Bitcoin Luxury Wrist Watch! on: July 30, 2011, 04:10:25 PM
just a suggestion;  because those linear grooves in the rotor are parallel you might consider engraving the "BTC" without the arc to make it align more properly.  the arc collides with that pattern it seems.  at any rate please make that engraving precise and cosmetically appealing since in essence "this" is what you're selling.
18298  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] The World's First Bitcoin Luxury Wrist Watch! on: July 30, 2011, 04:07:20 PM
and then 3, then 4, then 5, then 6, then 7, then 8... Cheesy
18299  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: July 30, 2011, 04:02:29 PM
debt/GDP is now 100%.

read Reinhart and Rogoff as to what this means.

I have not read the Reinhart and Rogoff book. I have been told that apart from presenting the data in an excellent way they do not really present any new or original economic idea, and are very tame as to why the crisis happens. Can you make a short explanation of why the crisis happened according to their thesis? Im specially interesting in knowing why they think the financial system behaved like they did.

PS: Ludites, that is the ideas that technology is going to "eat us" or/and cocentrate power have been always wrong. The record is out there for anyone to check. Bitcoin is the best example on how technology increases people's choices.

hugolp:  i must admit i did not read the entire book; its a tome.  i did skim it and read parts i thought were relevant. i've listened to several interview podcasts of both Rogoff (Harvard) and Reinhart(U of Maryland) as well as read several write ups and summaries.

in short, their emphasis is on the debt accumulation of sovereign nations as being an inhibitory factor to growth.  they analyzed  statistically several nations going back hundreds of years.  the book is filled with pretty graphs and loads of numbers.  in essence they "averaged" debt/GDP ratios of the nations that got themselves into trouble and came up with 90% as the tipping point for when a nation begins to pay too much in interest as a % of their output.  these nations then entire a significant decline.

i think the work is unique and significant.  in being primarily an empirical study going back 800 years and looking at 60 countries they in essence went into the forest and examined the trees unlike most economists who never look at the trees but stand back and try to wrap a theoretical model around the forest.   of course the skeptics of their work are the same old Keynesian clowns that we know so well who only know how to stimulate or QE.  these same clowns take pride in not knowing the details or inner workings of how an economy work but instead have "physics envy".  that is they want to believe economics can be precisely described in terms of mathematics and predictable models.  anyone who invests and studies markets like i do know this is just ridiculous.  markets are inherently unpredictable and unstable given our dependence on the immoral manipulative Fed.

Carmen Reinhart was asked to testify before Congress as to their results and findings back in 2009 i believe.  their work has been discussed worldwide and is generally regarded as credible work.  their emphasis on sovereign debt as being the root of the problems is right on as far as i'm concerned.  they recommend decreasing spending and more fiscally responsible gov't.  they have been as pessimistic on where the nation is heading as we are.  when they wrote the book i remember the debt/GDP being only around 60% and thinking to myself that it would take many, many years to get to 90%.  now we're at 100% or so.  so sad.
18300  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC up, USD down, Stocks rolling over. on: July 30, 2011, 07:34:12 AM

I bought a few homes earlier this year.  I am pretty sure that I could get a better deal near the end of 2012, but I didn't want to sit on USD until then.  I was quite uncomfortable earlier this year when gold and silver were on a tear so I jumped  (and missed out on the BTC spike due in part to being busy with that stuff.  I would almost certainly be sitting on whatever I had accumulated at that time but I would have gotten in cheaper and probably would have gone mining.)

good luck with those homes.  hopefully for you we don't go into the 2nd wave of deflation.  everyone assumes the Bernank will inflate away their debt.  i'm betting against that.

I bet you a couple of bitcoins that Bernanke will keeps monetizing government debt (whether it calls it QE3 or gives it another name is irrelevant). Deal?

LOL!  only a fool would bet against the fact that he will try.

But i will bet you that it doesn't work.  we'd have to come up with a timeframe and a measure of success or failure.  how about we bet that GDP goes negative by the end of 2012?
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