I'm not sure what method it's using.

10 Minirigs per day = 50 Th/s in 10 days. There's Avalon, ASICMiner, and BFL units coming online. Between the 3 of them, 50 Th/s over the next 10 days is certainly a possibility.

As for the data I'm using, it's just taken from http://bitcoincharts.com/

Also, my estimate will be based off the data I post here. That initial 30% guess is based on observations of the data over the past few days. We'll be able to see how it's progressing over the next few data points though.

The problem with these services is that there's simply too much arsing around at the moment. Buy chips from A, send them to B to be put on a board, send board to C to be assembled into an actual product, then get it shipped to yourself.

If you had a full product to sell me, I'd buy. As it stands, though, I just couldn't be bothered with all the hassle.

Those T&Cs would be completely irrelevant. EU law states that all consumer goods sold in the EU have a 2 year guarantee, regardless of what the sellers say.

I'll track the estimated difficulty increase over 126 block periods. The increase shown is the increase in difficulty from the last round, not an increase between blocks. I missed the first 2 periods but I'll try not to miss any more. Just in case though, feel free to post the right value if I haven't updated the post and nobody else has posted the value.

From the initial values, 3.16% increase 1/8 into the round, it's looking to be a 24% increase for this round. I suspect that the rate of increase will itself be increasing though, so my initial estimate for this round is about a 30% increase.

1,720 blocks remaining (just over 1/8 into the round) = 3.16 % increase
1,638 (3/16) = 4.72%
1,512 (4/16) = 5.12%
1,386 (5/16) = 6.76%
1,260 (6/16) = 7.4%
1,134 (7/16) = 7.95%
1,008 (8/16) = 8.94%
882 881 (9/16) = 9.99%
756 (10/16) = 12.95%
630 629 (11/16) = 15.48%
504 503 (12/16) = 15.52%
378 (13/16) = 18.33%
252 (14/16) = 19.98%
126 (15/16) = 20.21%
0 (new round) = 22.63%

So, we're half way through now and here's a quick summary. The difficulty round was seeing impressive increases between periods of about 1.5%. That fell to 0.4% and has steadily increase backup to 0.99%. Based on the initial results, the difficulty increase for the next round should be at least 18% based on doubling what it's at now. Taking into account the accelerating rate of increase, it should be a bit higher, so say at least 20%.

3/4 into the round and we're at 15.5%. We've seen some big 3% gains in a couple of periods, yet over the 11th, the increase was only 0.04%, the smallest so far. Was is just an extremely unlucky period or did it correspond to the lack of shipping on previous weekends?

So, at the end of the round, my initial estimate of 24% based on the first 252 blocks turned out to be pretty close. The difficulty increases varied wildly, from 0.04% to 2.96%.

There's no need for anyone to post anything here. People do so because they want to. If people reply to my comments, I'll reply back to most of them. If I see a comment I want to reply to, I will do so. You do not get to tell people what they can or can't post. It does not matter whether you like what they've got to say or not.

My posts have been bang on topic, which is all that really matters. If you want to ignore what I have to say, then do so. Nobody is forcing you to reply to me.

I'm not trolling, so disregard this person who clearly does not know what trolling is. I'm providing my opinion of the future of AM - that both mining income and hardware sales income will decrease once there is competition on the shelves and that AM is overpriced.

Apparently, some people think replying to peoples comments with maths and facts is trolling simply because they hold a different opinion.

Ask yourself why these people are calling me a troll when all I'm doing is providing facts based on the maths and looking at the problems which AM has to tackle in the near future. The answer is obvious. These people don't want you making informed decisions.

BFL devices are priced in USD not BTC. The Jalapeno cost 149 USD not 33 BTC. You're agrument is completely irrelevant.

And yet, the Jalapeno after being delivered a year later, will still have made more profit a month from now. That's all that needs to be said really.

There is a threat to the monopoly though. It's there for everyone to see, inching its way closer and closer. Anyone looking to invest, rather than speculate, needs to take these things into account.

I've said a few times that all mining stocks are overpriced at the moment.

That doesn't make sense. The Jalapeno was shipped on the day I specified according to the BFL shipping blog and I added an extra week to account for shipping time.


BFL devices are priced in USD not BTC, so it makes no difference what the price of bitcoin was last year.


Standard shipping within the same country usually takes a couple of days at most. AMC's Avalons were shipped from Hong Kong to the US in 1 day.


Multiply the BFL number by 75 and you'll find that in a month from now, the BFLs would have earned at least 75 BTC more than the AM shares. Did you have a point or are just trying to reinforce mine?

A first day Jalapeno will have made more profit than an AM IPO share by the end of the month and you'd still have the Jalapeno, whereas you'd have to sell the AM share.

That's what I've been saying all along and that's precisely why AM is overpriced. My argument is not that BFL is the greatest or that AM is the worst. My argument is simply that AM is overpriced basically because it has a monopoly.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

Again, as I said in a previous comment:


I posted that on the 24th June, so add another 3 days of profit to that, bringing the total to:

3 * 0.117 BTC = 0.351 BTC
Total = 4.9302 BTC = 493.02 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
3 * 0.168 USD = 0.504 USD
Total usage cost = 0.168 * 30 = 5.544 USD
Profit = 493.02 - 274 - 5.544 = 213.476 USD = 2.13476 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC

Profit from purchasing AM shares at IPO was stated to be 3.72 BTC. So, AM IPO share holders are currently 1.58524 BTC ahead of first day Jalapeno buyers. Difficulty is set to increase by about 10% and the income from the BFL is set to be about 0.1053 BTC/day, which is 1.4742 BTC over 2 weeks. AM dividend will come to about 0.06 BTC over the same period.

That puts AM at 3.78 BTC and BFL at:

14 * 0.168 USD = 2.352 USD
2.13476 BTC + 1.4742 BTC = 3.60896 BTC

By this time next month, a first day Jalapeno will have made at least 1 BTC more profit than an AM IPO share.

So, get your facts straight.

Why? Because you said so? Prove the maths wrong, then you claim I've been "pawned". Like I said back then:


A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Instead of saying that my maths and facts are laughable, I'd like to see you try and show that. You won't because you know for a fact that the maths is spot on and anyone can confirm that for themselves.

People are free to make their own minds up based on the information available to them. Now, they can use the solid mathematical facts which I've provided to help them with their decision, or they can listen to the nonsense which you guys spew in order to try and increase share price.

What data am I ignoring? What numbers am I pulling out my arse?

BFL
5 GH/s
274 USD, 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 2.74 = 1.825 Gh/s per BTC

AM
400,000 shares
3.5 BTC per share
2,500 Th/s
2,500,000,000,000,000 / 400,000 = 6.25 Gh/s per share
6,250,000,000 / 3.5 = 1.786 Gh/s per BTC

In order for AM to offer similar value to a 5 Gh/s BFL in hashing power, it needs 2,500 Th/s. That's a fact and nothing you can say or do will change that. Why should people ignore facts and make decisions based on ignorance, simply because you want to increase your profit at their expense?

Because that's the competition. I could compare it to BitFury or KnC if you prefer but that will just make things look a hell of a lot worse. Does it matter if BFL hasn't shipped 90% of it's hardware? AM hasn't brought online 90% of it's hashing power either and it most certainly hasn't brought online the 2,500 Th/s that it would need to provide equal hashing value with BFL.

You say it has nothing to do with BFL, but that's just wilful ignorance. BFL, Bitfury, KnC and AMC will all effect AM with regards to both hardware sales and share of the network. You can keep comparing the competition to imaginary unicorns, but that's just pure stupidity as it's a fact that the competition is real.

Prove to me that your Unicorn-PT shares can actually provide me with 1 Th/s and I'll buy as many as I can afford. Otherwise, stop talking nonsense simply because you can't refute the claims.

Well said. Some people here think that anyone not participating in their circle-jerk and trying to inflate the share price is trolling. When you show them the maths to prove just how inflated the prices are, they start talking about buying in at the IPO for 0.1 BTC, like that's in the slightest bit relevant for someone looking to buy shares now.

The fact is that even if AM had a hash rate of 250 Th/s, with 400,000 shares at 3.5 BTC each, that works out to be just 178.57 Mh/s per BTC. In order for AM's mining operation to provide similar value to a 5 GH/s BFL, it needs a hash rate of around 2,500 Th/s at a share price of 3.5 BTC.

Then they go on about hardware sales and delude themselves into believing that people will continue to pay insane prices for the worst ASIC hardware on the market and that hardware sales are going to increase as will dividends.

They probably know they're full of shit and they're just trying to pump before they dump.