agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.

So is the allegation that gox facing solvency issues due to general mismanagement of finances, decided to 'buy' bitcoin with goxbux, whilst stalling on fiat withdrawals, thusly pushing the gox price higher, whilst selling them on the other exchanges for real fiat.

It continued to harvest fiat thus easing cash-flow issues, waiting for the inevitable market blow off. Once it was clear we were in a solid downtrend it reversed its strategy this time, blocking BTC withdrawals to capitalise on downward momentum, causing panic selloffs. With all the surplus fiat gox now had, it was able to cover the 'goxbux' liability, as well as acquire a whole bunch of additional btc for cheap, knowing full well that it would reduce its bitcoin liability to customers such that when withdrawals re-open, they are left sat on a whole load of spare bitcoin, which will inevitably trend back towards equilibrium with the rest of the exchanges.

So if thats the story...

Is karpeles is the genius criminal mastermind behind this?  

I actually haven't kept up with that. I'm guessing it's going quite shittily, yes?

My greatest fear is that they will come out of this stronger, with their fraudulent/immoral/unethical behaviour being further incentivized. Now traders will want to have even more money there to be prepared for the next great Goxxing.

I will not put any more fiat into the ecosystem, and will strongly suggest to immediate friends and family they they do the same, until I see Gox volume drop greatly.

This could set a dangerous precedent for the community, especially if no legal action results.

You can't know how many bitcoins Mtgox has from independent investigation. However Mtgox used the blockchain to prove they weren't insolvent and didn't have all the coins on deposit stolen after the big hack in 2011, by announcing and transferring 424242 bitcoins. If they had the ability then to prove they weren't insolvent, I don't see why they wouldn't now of all times.

Gox is out of touch and bad at communicating, but I see no reason at all to suspect insolvency or any underhandedness. They may have gotten some money stolen, and it could be a lot, but there's no particular reason to believe it's to the point of insolvency, any more than that it's trivial. They would need to carefully recount everything in either case before reopening access.

Note that SEPA and yen withdrawals seem to be working basically fine. It seems like 90% of the hysteric posts are unaware of this basic fact. MtGox isn't a black hole; plenty of money is flowing out, even if a few weeks delayed.

The market places odds at 75 to 80% that they'll never reopen BTC withdrawals, but that seems ridiculously low to me. Time to make some money on people's hysteria

Nobody will use gox even if they recover. The trust has been lost forever.

Let's say gox goes belly up.

Does it really make sense that when the adjudicators are dividing up what little, and I mean little, spoils are left over after the years of litigation, that they'll say that these guys over here will get their dollars back but those guys over there with BTC won't?

No, they'll be legally bound to return whatever form of property you had on gox. It would be way better to come out of that with 90% discounted coins.

How much did you just send to Gox?

My position was that this was coming regardless -- but no one could have foreseen the extent of this Gox meltdown. The Gox situation is becoming extremely disturbing at this point.

Gox isn't crashing. You're looking at the chart upside down.

Are you for real?

Are you actually from Gox or Karpeles himself? (if so lay of the doughnuts and leave them kiddies alone)

You came here right on the eve of Gox's demise and started commanding people to remain calm, assuring them that all was well with Gox and imploring Goxcoin owners to hold at $900. Something you have continued to do right throughout the whole sorry process.

It would actually reflect better on you if you were a Gox shill. Otherwise, you must surely count as most extraordinarily stupid mother fucker on the whole forum.....and there is a lot of competition.

How are those 261 dollar BTCs you guys bought looking?  

spammy ?

I know I didn't, so it's not everyone!

"How can we fuck each other hard and fast if you take the exchange down?" - traders, 2000forever

You don't even what?

I mean, I know Gox is pretty fucking incompetent, but it boggles the mind how they could be in debt after all the fees they've been scalping from their victims customers the past few days.