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1861  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is this for real? on: February 20, 2014, 08:44:10 PM
i get this email too they r hiding they are going bankrupt

I don't even.
1862  Other / Off-topic / Re: Depressed Mark Karpeles meme on: February 20, 2014, 08:26:07 PM
They told me lattes were low carb
1863  Economy / Speculation / Re: Game Over?? on: February 20, 2014, 08:21:51 PM
Gosh, I could easily liquidate on BitStamp, Coinbase, or with SecondMarket for over $550/BTC, but the crash is happening on Gox so I should probably send my bitcoins there to sell.  Yes?

I knew you wouldn't be able to resist coming back at these levels of drama Cheesy
1864  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who destroyed Bitcoin? on: February 20, 2014, 08:17:08 PM
capitulation so soon?  Cheesy
1865  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official End of Mt Gox thread on: February 20, 2014, 08:03:01 PM
has anyone successfully got any funds onto gox in the past few days?

yes. sepa took about 48 hours excluding weekends (and I think monday was a holiday in US? maybe elsewhere).

just wondering... you wired money to gox to pick up coins cheap, which makes sense maybe economically, if the chance of total failure is outweighed by the chance of getting the coins out of gox and the possible profit you could make on that.

But you don't see any  problem at all that, by doing so, you're lending gox legitimacy that they very much don't deserve anymore? I mean, I know, it's a market, morality has no place in here but... really?

I'm not a moral arbiter. Especially not given that I don't actually *know* what is going on at gox.

I'm amazed how many people claim that they do.

Here's just one scenario out of a hat.

Gox knows that by allowing BTC withdrawals, they could potentially double pay (yes due to their own flawed algorithm - but still a risk all the same), and this would threaten solvency/customer deposits.

What needs to happen is that the free market will decide. If people are happy to tolerate gox's way of doing things they will carry on, if they don't gox will die.

If people want to make it a moral crusade that's their call. To me its just business.


I could say something about the paradox of the self-interested actor, something along the lines of the dominant strategy not necessarily leading to the optimal result for the individual that chose that strategy, but I would sound like a self-righteous, hypocritical dick. Carry on then.


Tragedy of the commons? true enough.

Sorry if i sound callous I'm just taking the 4-1 odds against mtgox crashing. I don't really share the seemingly common belief that what gox are doing/not doing is inherently good or bad for bitcoin. I think its just all 'stuff' like pirate wasn't good or bad for bitcoin, he was just bad for the people that fell for it. Like Madoff wasn't 'bad' for the dollar etc i dunno what i really think, just kind of riding the waves.


A small part of me wonders if, not just in Bitcoin valuation, but other ventures as well, we hit a local maximum because of our choices without ever being aware of the possibility that, had we acted different, we would have reached a higher point... but that's idle speculation.

Hence: I have no good reason to complain from a moral point of view. Objection withdrawn.

But I don't need to tell you that you'll get zero sympathy if you get burned on there. I've read enough of your posts to know that you're well aware of the risks and such. Good luck though Smiley

Sounds a bit like game theory, which I'll admit to not really knowing anything about, other than it's a thing! You are probably right indeed. I think there is the eternal struggle between opposing forces in everything, the light and dark, yin and yang whatever. The emergent behaviour being the richness and complexity if everything around us. With $goxusdrate being just one tiny facet of an enormous symphony of variables.

Thanks for the good wishes, don't worry I'll be the first to poke my head up over the parapet for people to take potshots at should it all go pear shaped! It's all in the spirit of the game eh

1866  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official End of Mt Gox thread on: February 20, 2014, 05:04:05 PM
has anyone successfully got any funds onto gox in the past few days?

yes. sepa took about 48 hours excluding weekends (and I think monday was a holiday in US? maybe elsewhere).

just wondering... you wired money to gox to pick up coins cheap, which makes sense maybe economically, if the chance of total failure is outweighed by the chance of getting the coins out of gox and the possible profit you could make on that.

But you don't see any  problem at all that, by doing so, you're lending gox legitimacy that they very much don't deserve anymore? I mean, I know, it's a market, morality has no place in here but... really?

I'm not a moral arbiter. Especially not given that I don't actually *know* what is going on at gox.

I'm amazed how many people claim that they do.

Here's just one scenario out of a hat.

Gox knows that by allowing BTC withdrawals, they could potentially double pay (yes due to their own flawed algorithm - but still a risk all the same), and this would threaten solvency/customer deposits.

What needs to happen is that the free market will decide. If people are happy to tolerate gox's way of doing things they will carry on, if they don't gox will die.

If people want to make it a moral crusade that's their call. To me its just business.


I could say something about the paradox of the self-interested actor, something along the lines of the dominant strategy not necessarily leading to the optimal result for the individual that chose that strategy, but I would sound like a self-righteous, hypocritical dick. Carry on then.


Tragedy of the commons? true enough.

Sorry if i sound callous I'm just taking the 4-1 odds against mtgox crashing. I don't really share the seemingly common belief that what gox are doing/not doing is inherently good or bad for bitcoin. I think its just all 'stuff' like pirate wasn't good or bad for bitcoin, he was just bad for the people that fell for it. Like Madoff wasn't 'bad' for the dollar etc i dunno what i really think, just kind of riding the waves.
1867  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE: Gox -- this is what we wanted on: February 20, 2014, 03:25:28 PM
The Gox debacle is showing the system is working.  No bailouts.  No TARP deal with the fed the prints $ for those who apply, devaluing everybody else.  The faulty part is removed from the BTC engine and replaced by better functioning and more diverse solutions.  Bitstamp, coinbase, bitfinex, ATMs.  Outside of BTC-land, the company gets bailed out and the people in charge remain to poison and drain the system of vitality forever.  

When the engine hiccups some people get burned, and I am very sorry if you are one of them.  

But bitcoin technology cannot help us if we don't USE it.  WHEN are we going to insist that BTC balances are held by exchanges in individual, blockchain-verifiable accounts?  Or even use multi-sig for greater security?  To stop every trade from appearing on the blockchain, these accounts could be "renormalized" daily or even weekly.

Agree. This is actually what should happen. Unfortunate that people might get burned, but in an unregulated emerging market they are the risks. People that don't understand them should wait 'til the government makes it safe for them.
1868  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official End of Mt Gox thread on: February 20, 2014, 03:21:18 PM
has anyone successfully got any funds onto gox in the past few days?

yes. sepa took about 48 hours excluding weekends (and I think monday was a holiday in US? maybe elsewhere).

just wondering... you wired money to gox to pick up coins cheap, which makes sense maybe economically, if the chance of total failure is outweighed by the chance of getting the coins out of gox and the possible profit you could make on that.

But you don't see any  problem at all that, by doing so, you're lending gox legitimacy that they very much don't deserve anymore? I mean, I know, it's a market, morality has no place in here but... really?

I'm not a moral arbiter. Especially not given that I don't actually *know* what is going on at gox.

I'm amazed how many people claim that they do.

Here's just one scenario out of a hat.

Gox knows that by allowing BTC withdrawals, they could potentially double pay (yes due to their own flawed algorithm - but still a risk all the same), and this would threaten solvency/customer deposits.

What needs to happen is that the free market will decide. If people are happy to tolerate gox's way of doing things they will carry on, if they don't gox will die.

If people want to make it a moral crusade that's their call. To me its just business.
1869  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official End of Mt Gox thread on: February 20, 2014, 09:14:02 AM
has anyone successfully got any funds onto gox in the past few days?

yes. sepa took about 48 hours excluding weekends (and I think monday was a holiday in US? maybe elsewhere).
1870  Economy / Speculation / Re: where are Chinese and what are they doing? on: February 19, 2014, 07:09:40 PM
title made me think http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLl0DVzRksk
1871  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 19, 2014, 07:07:21 PM
But Risto! that would be like abandoning the internets because it is full of adverts, malware, and spam SEO sites Wink

Stick it out, filter the noise, it  is what it is, and what you make of it x

I don't necessarily agree with what people say, but I find it imperative that I read their points of view so I can better understand and challenge my own.

1872  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here's what the Mt. Gox Press Release will say and why on: February 19, 2014, 01:51:19 PM
<snip>
Good luck, and we'll see.

ericmoulton

You miss one fundamental problem: For someone to deposit BTC onto gox and sell it, there has to be another guy on the other side of the trade that has fiat deposited to buy it.

Whichever way you slice it, is a zero sum game for customers, and gox just cream fees off everyone.

So the math is simply:

1. gox_fees - gox_overheads = gox_profit

whether gox_fees > gox_overheads is where the question lies. no theory (conspiracy or otherwise) needed.

gox_overheads have been inflated due to the confiscation, and potential loss of coins to malleability.
but, gox_fees just keep on piling up.

its anybody's guess what the balance is.

Customer balances be it fiat or btc (should be) ring fenced if gox_fees < gox_overheads, then perhaps this isn't the case. To know that, you must know the answer to question 1 above.

1873  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox - To resume withdrawals Feb 20th - New ATH approaching on: February 19, 2014, 01:40:15 PM
money has finally reached gox account - picked up a few coins at €220. left a bit lying around in case we go further down... now we wait.

€220! So around $300? Seems to be top of the market on Gox for the time being but a pretty good trade if you can actually get them off the place. If you succeed, then u know you got to arbitrage these coins though don't you? Otherwise you may end up taking this risk for no good reason if the bear market progresses to grind its way further down (which I am sure it will give or take the odd bit of whipsawing action). If more Bitcoin is your aim, then you know that if you sell at $630 or whatever, you will get the chance to buy back on the next test of $540......whether this support holds or falls is another matter but it there is absolutely nothing in the charts that suggests that it won't be revisited.

Yeah just bought with half my cash when it got there. Then stuck the rest in some limit orders all the way down.

It all boils down to if I can ever get them out. If I can though they'll just go into the 'hold' so to speak Smiley I'm not looking to flip quick for fiat profits. Just wanted to take a bite of opportunity pie.

In any case I think that if gox did open its doors, I'd be the guy at the back snoozing whilst everyone else closed the arg gap before I even woke up Wink
1874  Economy / Speculation / Re: We might actually see the same price pattern like last year on: February 19, 2014, 12:06:15 AM
if its the same then i think this little hump will grind down to 500 where we'll stay for six months. Then a dip to around $425 will begin the next bubble to about $8k

but thats wild speculation. it could do anything
1875  Economy / Speculation / Re: Possible outcomes of the Mt. Gox fiasco - my speculation on: February 18, 2014, 11:39:01 PM
With Mtgox well known problem, why the hell with someone want to stay at them?

If I had btc on such lousy exchange, I would just wait the first moment I could make withdrawal. Surely wouldn't want to stay with them.

So, all withdrawals were confirmed fixed, and BTC is 70% cheaper there... I think there will be plenty of others that fancy a bite at that.
1876  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin and The Crashing Game on: February 18, 2014, 11:20:32 PM
I posted a long time ago about this.

"they" being your NWO du jour - the fed, the ecb, the rothschild family(!) etc

I think they can, as seems to be their specialty, kick the can further down the road. It seems to me though that they cannot stop the tide.

I think their best bet would be to try and capture as much of the bitcoinmarket as possible. Buying up coins now is the short term method. The real key though, I think, is to invest in hashing power (whilst their dollars are still worth something).

In the medium term you then capture most of the mined transactions. In the long term you start to ream in the transaction fees.

In this endgame, nobody has enough BTC to buy up hashing power to compete. Transacation fees become the new 'tax'. Welcome to the future! It's the same as before Cheesy


That's why I am in it for the long haul, because it likely is the new money, and "they" are trying to ensure you have as little as possible of it.

I think gathering coins is playing out now and that is just a sideshow. I think gathering hash power won't become apparent for some time.

Course this is all just a "conspiracy theory"...

1877  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox - To resume withdrawals Feb 20th - New ATH approaching on: February 18, 2014, 10:06:19 PM
It would take a lot of balls to continue accepting cash deposits for people to buy bitcoin only to come out later and say "Ooops, we're broke - me so sorry."

I agree. Still braced for it though Smiley
1878  Economy / Speculation / Re: Possible outcomes of the Mt. Gox fiasco - my speculation on: February 18, 2014, 10:04:09 PM
If Gox opens again and the price is low, everyone will go back and do business.



its as simple as this.
1879  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it my imagination or does Bitcoin tend to gravitate towards $666 on: February 18, 2014, 10:01:50 PM
I had noticed the same thing, since making a bet that price would dip below $666. sgbet, if you're reading this, why did you choose that particular number, and what is your relationship with lucifer himself??!!!  Shocked

Here is a somewhat less apocalyptic explanation: Whales are fucking with the price, just for shits and giggles. They're reading the doomsday scenario type posts on here and laughing at the whole thing.

lulz Smiley
1880  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox - To resume withdrawals Feb 20th - New ATH approaching on: February 18, 2014, 04:46:23 PM
Smiley okay, i understand your intentions.
BTC withdrawls might however be enabled(limited? ) or however. I just donīt believe that one can use the situation to profit.
Please keep me up to date if they credit your account before the gap closes(in whichever direction). I reckon that deposits might somehow be a bit delayed at the moment... Wink
But thatīs just one of many Gox  theories right now.  Wink

money has finally reached gox account - picked up a few coins at €220. left a bit lying around in case we go further down... now we wait.

 Wink Smiley

Good to hear. I wish you all the best. Could you please assure me to dump those coins immediately on Stamp if you will be able to withdraw them Cheesy Cheesy.
The bear market over there is childish and a bit boring.

hehe. I'm not buying them to flip for a quick profit. I'm still a 'true believer' Wink I want more pie. This pie looks to be on offer. Just hope it tastes good.
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