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1881  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is not that good as currency? on: January 06, 2020, 05:51:25 AM
Well, there you have it. The reason why the value of Bitcoin is in awe is because of those HODLERS. I don't agree with the idea at all. Bitcoin should not be treated as such. If I remember they are the ones who made the 2017 bubble. And look at Bitcoin now, 3 years have passed but there's no improvement at all

I've been telling that since as early as 2015

And back in the day I was ruthlessly attacked on all fronts. People were euphoric and ecstatic about the future prospects of Bitcoin as a universal means of payment, and they couldn't bear a thought that it was mostly wishful thinking and pipe dreaming on their part. My opponents came up with all sorts of contrived reasons and arguments why Bitcoin should necessarily take over fiat in a not so distant future

I asked them to bring forth real-life examples which would prove genuine expansion of cryptocurrency, and all they had been able to bring to the table were exotic cases like an obscure car dealer accepting crypto, which was actually an exchanger with no crypto involved in the actual process of buying cars from the manufacturer. Today you can pay with crypto with the help of payment processors but it is just a front-end and a fiat gateway
1882  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What did you learn as a gambler? on: January 05, 2020, 09:22:37 PM
For example, if you fail over and over again in attempts of finding a particular job, maybe you should stop trying to get that particular job, and focus on finding a different one

That's an interesting observation

Einstein is credited with the saying that "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”. And while I certainly agree with the man on his definition of insanity since this is what most of us are doing most of the time anyway (known as behavior patterns), I can't quite agree that you should stop looking for something which you feel is your thing - let's call it true calling

So if you fail, it may just mean that you are using wrong tools and employing wrong approaches, or simply not properly prepared or motivated. So how's gambling really different in this regard now that we seem to have found a way to beat the house (even if only for a small profit)? The point is, there is false hope, but there is also false hopelessness. And the latter is generally considered much worse than the former
1883  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Overview of trusted/recommended Translators on: January 05, 2020, 03:44:00 PM
Why don't we ask the local mod/community member(s) to give a review before we add them to the 'trusted/recommended' translator? Unlike a bounty manager, you have to understand the language to judge the translation quality, so if it were me I'd be very careful

I actually support this view (in general)

However, if someone speaks (writes) fluent English (which can be easily seen from their posting history here) and to whom the English language is not their mother tongue, you could rightfully and reasonably expect that their native language skills would be at least as good. Typically, they are much better (than what you would expect from an average native speaker)

It's fine if somebody posted and requested to be added on the list but they should have at least one native speaker vouching for them

You'd be surprised how many so-called native speakers ain't quite good at speaking and deep understanding the intricacies of their own language (despite what they might think or claim to the contrary)

But who should be a trusted validator?

Being a native speaker and having an English-language proficiency (English as the second language) are pretty good "validators" or indicators on their own if you ask me. This seems to be the case where words speak for themselves. But we can always weigh in and give our unbiased opinion (peer review)

You can think of it as a sort of standing committee or panel of trusted and recognized translators
1884  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What did you learn as a gambler? on: January 05, 2020, 10:21:14 AM
You probably heard the negative sides of gambling, some people who dont gamble has this bad impression towards it and we cant blame them for thinking that way because of the bad affect of gambling to a person who dont have control and let himself became addicted.

Now what did you realize or learn as a gambler (regardless if you became an addicted or not) that you can share to others?

If anything, gambling allowed me to discover the true power of randomness

And how far it can go and take us, in both negative and positive directions (in terms of wins and losses). Speaking in more concrete terms, it is the extreme variance of random events (remember, random is not uniform) that we should be well aware of and particularly careful with when dealing with such events. It is not regular outcomes that typically make our lives difficult and unpleasant but statistical outliers (black swans in Nassim Taleb's terms) that ultimately come to ruin us. Simply put, randomness can be your best friend as well as worst enemy

One prime example would be dice and an approach to playing it known as martingale. Most players massively underestimate the power of variance in this game when using such a strategy. They can play for a day or two, and then proceed to erroneously assume without critically evaluating the assumption that they are never going to see longer losing streaks. So they continue to stake more and more in pursuit of greater profits until variance finally catches up with their greed (which knows no limits) and gets them completely unprepared

As a former addicted gambler I realized that gambling is not the answer if you're desperate to grow your money and should not be our last resort in times like this because there's other way that can be the solution to our problem when it comes to money

Absolutely agree with this point unless you know how to change the odds in your favor
1885  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How Truly Random is Random on: January 05, 2020, 09:47:53 AM
And it is randomness that gives gamblers hopes to win. Casinos stay profitable not because of randomness but rather in spite of it. When you bet long enough, randomness gets removed from the equation entirely. And what remains, as you might have already guessed, is called house edge. Randomness can override the house edge but not for long, so technically it is against the casino. The latter just uses it to lure gamblers into believing that they can win, and they can in fact if they are lucky to conquer the odds and wise to keep their wins

Randomness is what protects a casino against a smart player. Something that is not random, i.e. predictable with even the slightest chance of sustainable success, will be eventually exploited (think blackjack card counters)

Randomness doesn't protect the casino

On the contrary, it is randomness in and by itself that allows a smart player to override the house edge and win more or less consistently (as first explained and then proved in this thread). If it were not for randomness, which is the opposite of the house edge in a sense, you couldn't exploit the variance in bet outcomes (which is how randomness reveals itself in real life) and ultimately beat the house

And that's also the reason why so many casinos are limiting betting speeds as well as minimum bets (more specifically, with doges). A smart and experienced player knows how to use the power of randomness against the house. It is through statistical outliers, which are possible only because the bets (rolls in case of dice) are random. If they were not random, there couldn't be outliers, and thus there'd be no chance to overcome the house edge
1886  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Альткоины, когда буллран? on: January 04, 2020, 10:03:40 PM
Потом и сами аудиторы отвалили, когда поняли, что их пытаются втемную использовать (как прикрытие для разных афер).
Так и было. Причем тезер сначала одну аудиторскую фирму пригласили - те походили, посмотрели, поняли какая там помойка и свалили.
Потом они другую аудиторскую фирму пригласили - те тоже через некоторое время поняли, что тезер их тупо хочет использовать для прикрытия своих афер, и тоже свалили.
А уж после этого тезер нашел сговорчивую юридическую фирму, которая один раз написала им "подтверждение" ни о чем Grin
Что-то совсем странное получается, как можно вообще нанять аудиторов которые потом видя какие-то проблемы просто молчат в тряпочку.. а если они их не видят то почему не хотят подписаться на аудит и получить деньги. И какая им разница есть проблемы или нет - взяли деньги, проверили все и выдали честный отчет

Вообще говоря, аудит - он разный бывает

Разный по глубине и масштабу проверки. Та нью-йоркская фирма, которая Феникс изначально проверяла, выдала честный отчет, но тот отчет никого из серьезных специалистов не устроил, поскольку он был больше для галочки, а потом они и сами отказались дальше с биржей сотрудничать. Может там еще какие нюансы были, но я не особо слежу за этой темой, ибо и так понятно, что рыльце у биржи в пуху (это выражение такое, из басни Крылова, кто не знает)
1887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ponzi scheme and Bitcoin on: January 04, 2020, 09:24:03 PM
Isn't that the rule in getting profit on trading?  Buying at a lower price and selling at a higher price?  If bitcoin falls into that, pretty much all of things that is sold in the market  falls under it.  Like gold, silver etc
You miss the whole picture

It is definitely true with respect to trading, but if it were only about trading, we would have a classic Ponzi scheme with any tradable asset. However, the difference between gold, silver and other real assets, on the one hand, and some scammy tokens, on the other, is crucial and definitive. Real assets are called real for a reason

And the reason is that these assets have plenty of utility beyond just trading. Then buying low and selling high stops being the only useful option available to you. With Ponzies, the only way their tokens can be of any use to you is when you sell them higher than what you bought them for. That's their only utility and distinguishing feature

You are just equating "Ponzi scheme" with "speculation." That's ridiculous. Reaching some arbitrary measure of real world usage isn't what defines a Ponzi scheme, which is a form of fraud. And even if your definition applied, Bitcoin is frequently used as a medium of exchange and even a unit of account. It's a "real asset" through and through even if you don't think very highly of it

I'm curious as to why you refuse to look beyond speculation

Since this is what ultimately determines whether speculation is synonymous with a Ponzi scheme (as its modus operandi). So it is definitely not like I'm just equating "Ponzi scheme" with "speculation", or some exotic variety thereof. Put differently, if it is only about speculation and nothing else, then you can be certain that you are dealing with a fraud. Okay, you disagree, I understand, but would you disagree that most altcoins (aka shitcoins, for the record) as well as the best part of ICO's are a form of fraud functioning in a Ponzi-like manner and environment, where profits can only come from later investors?
1888  Economy / Services / Re: [Crypto-Games.net] ★ Signature Campaign ★ Hero - Legendary[1 open spot] ★ on: January 04, 2020, 08:36:53 PM
I post in two languages (English and Russian), and you may choose which one better suits your needs and in what ratio. Can be very active in the Gambling section (see here, here, and here)

Username: deisik
Current Post Count: 22783
Current Rank: Legendary
Bitcoin Address: bc1qhdl0cte0eapjaqftrmf07sgh88kngjru827cvg

Will update everything if accepted
1889  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Альткоины, когда буллран? on: January 04, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Особенно активно новые USDT печатали в мае-июне, на пампе битка.
Летом (когда памп уже закончили,но цену битка держали всё равно высокой) активность снизили и допечатывали уже не так массово

Там вроде как прояснилась ситуация

Не конкретно по тезерам (горбатого могила исправит), а по пампу в целом. Как выяснилось, какие-то продвинутые китайцы в то время замутили мощную финансовую пирамиду, а участвовать в ней можно было только криптой. Вот народ и побежал скупать битки, что и спровоцировало взлет ценника почти до 14 килобаксов

Потом пирамида ожидаемо рухнула, а следом за ней полетел вниз и курс всей крипты. Ну а поскольку часть криптоманов разумно переложилась из альтов в Биткоин, последний потерял не так много (как мог бы) по сравнению со всей остальной криптой. Так что ждем следующей пирамиды

На пике роста крипты ныне покойный Мавроди собирался открывать МММ в китае, на что власти китая дали незамедлительный ответ что если они увидят в детище Мавроди признаки пирамиды то он получит или пожизненное или расстрел. Неужели после этого в китае у кого-то могло появиться желание баловаться пирамидами?

Нужно понимать китайскую специфику

Что китайцы, что японцы чужих не любят в принципе. Чужих вообще никто нигде не любит (это только у нас остался менталитет извращенный со времен Совка), но эти не любят с особым цинизмом, поэтому у Мавроди в Китае было бы без вариантов. Ну а для местных китайцев могли создать совсем другие условия, особенно с учетом того, что коррупция у азиатов существует практически на официальном уровне. Поэтому баловаться пирамидами там вполне могло быть оформлено на определенном уровне местной партократии. Принимая во внимание, что это была криптопирамида, где каждый сам за себя
1890  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Альткоины, когда буллран? on: January 04, 2020, 10:23:44 AM
Особенно активно новые USDT печатали в мае-июне, на пампе битка.
Летом (когда памп уже закончили,но цену битка держали всё равно высокой) активность снизили и допечатывали уже не так массово

Там вроде как прояснилась ситуация

Не конкретно по тезерам (горбатого могила исправит), а по пампу в целом. Как выяснилось, какие-то продвинутые китайцы в то время замутили мощную финансовую пирамиду, а участвовать в ней можно было только криптой. Вот народ и побежал скупать битки, что и спровоцировало взлет ценника почти до 14 килобаксов

Потом пирамида ожидаемо рухнула, а следом за ней полетел вниз и курс всей крипты. Ну а поскольку часть криптоманов разумно переложилась из альтов в Биткоин, последний потерял не так много (как мог бы) по сравнению со всей остальной криптой. Так что ждем следующей пирамиды
1891  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Альткоины, когда буллран? on: January 04, 2020, 06:17:31 AM
У них там был какой-то период без аудитов, но потом же аудиты они стали проходить. Разве они сейчас опять не проходят аудиты и не публикуют их?

Саудиты (зачеркнуто) аудиты у них левые были

Потом и сами аудиторы отвалили, когда поняли, что их пытаются втемную использовать (как прикрытие для разных афер). Но сейчас за Феникс плотно взялся нью-йоркский окружной прокурор (прямо как в том сериале), точнее прокурорша, плюс им еще засадили два коллективных иска охочие до судебных тяжб американцы (class action), так что Фениксу сейчас точно не до тезеров. Как говорится, не до жиру, быть бы живу. Но их тело (зачеркнуто) дело точно живее Ленина
1892  Economy / Economics / Re: Big Bankers Say Cryptocurrencies Do Not Threat The Global Financial Stability on: January 04, 2020, 04:50:25 AM
The truth is that cryptocurrency, technically, can destroy an established financial system. More precisely, to destroy the dependence of the world economy on the dollar. All that is needed is the complete eradication of cryptocurrency volatility, which is extremely difficult due to the limited number of the same bitcoins. However, this does not mean that you cannot use another currency that can get rid of dependence on bitcoin in the future

As a currency, Bitcoin is not a competitor to the dollar

So it can't possibly destroy the established financial system as represented in this day and age by the American dollar. It can compete with the latter as a very unconventional store of value due to its complete disconnection and separation from the mentioned system, but there are many other classes of assets which are as independent and self-sufficient as Bitcoin (for example, precious metals, to name but just a few)
1893  Local / Трейдеры / Re: Как вы пользуетесь стопами? on: January 03, 2020, 09:44:44 PM
Открываете, например, на Фениксе две короткие позиции - одну на продажу, а другую на покупку, и будет у вас виртуальная пара битка к битку. А дальше может ездить на волатильности туда-сюда. Другое дело, открывать такие позиции на одной и той же бирже не совсем комильфо, поскольку получаемый таким образом хедж используется не столько для торговли, сколько для снижения убытка при возможном дефолте биржи

Не совсем понимаю вас, постоянно около нуля плясать? Или я что-то не понимаю в вашей стратегии, можете поподробнее рассказать?
И как это у вас покупка стала короткой позицией?

Короткая позиция - это позиция, открытая на заемные средства

Купить в долг вы можете точно также, как и продать в долг. В этом случае у вас будет короткая позиция на покупку. Слово короткая в данном контексте относится к периоду, в течение которого предполагается держать позицию, т.е. какое-то незначительное время, что связано со срочностью кредита

Зачем вам нужно торговать биток против битка, вам лучше спросить у себя, ибо вопрос о такой возможности был задам вами. Но, тем не менее, я отвечу (хотя я уже ответил в своем посте) - это используется для хеджирования. Объяснять, что такое хеджирование я уже не буду

Короткая позиция в любом случае это позиция на продажу. У вас же "две короткие позиции - одну на продажу, а другую на покупку," это масло масленное

Ну вот зачем начинать совершенно ненужный диспут?

Пусть будет две маржинальных позиции - одна на покупку, а другая на продажу одного и того же актива. Вам от этого легче стало? Это делается, например, чтобы использовать запаздывание между торговыми парами с одним и тем же базовым или котируемым активом (пусть будет биток в паре с евро и долларом).

Такое запаздывание есть всегда, только им, как правило, сами биржи и пользуются - в свою пользу, разумеется. Получается что-то типа внутрибиржевого арбитража, поскольку по сути торгуется один актив против самого себя. А торговля с плечом как раз и позволяет увеличить прибыль при минимальном уровне риска
1894  Local / Трейдеры / Re: Кризис в 2019 году ускорит рост криптовалют. on: January 03, 2020, 09:15:27 PM
Миллионы битков лежат без дела. И его держатели с превиликим удовольствием продали бы за 500 и даже 100$ эти битки, но это нереально, так как курс обвалиться до нуля. Неужели непонятно?

Ну, скажем, мне непонятно

Если бы кто-то хотел продать по 500 баксов за монету, он бы уже давно свои монеты продал. Ну а в том случае, когда у него битков оказалось бы слишком много, то ценник как раз и стал бы равным тем самым 500 долларам. Если ты хочешь продать по 500, а ценник в 10 раз выше, странно было бы не продать хоть что-то. Ведь простая логика, правда? Другое дело, что крупных желающих продавать даже по текущему ценнику особо нет, ну кроме китайских скамеров, конечно, которым в принципе все равно по какой цене скидывать ворованную крипту
желающих по текущим ценам продать валом.
Желающих купить большие объемы нету. Поэтому манипулятор сам выкупает монеты при проливах удерживая таким образом курс от обвала

И кто он, это таинственный и могущественный заправила крипторынков?

Впрочем, совершенно неважно, ибо если бы желающих продать по текущим ценам было действительно валом, мы бы легко это увидели по сумасшедшим объемам торгов. Ну а поскольку объемы торгов отнюдь не впечатляют (даже при мощном движняке), то вывод прост и однозначен - нет в реальности никакого суслика (зачеркнуто) манипулятора. Да и как-то  не очень вяжутся ваши нынешние доводы с озвученными давеча ("миллионы битков лежат без дела"). Они либо лежат без дела, либо их выкупает манипулятор - вы бы там определились, что ли (ну типа нельзя быть немножко беременной)
1895  Economy / Services / Re: Need translation for one sentence in Russian/Japanese/Portoguese/Czech/Slovak on: January 03, 2020, 09:21:09 AM
Thank to your help I completed Russian and added French.

I still miss translation for this sentence: "Alternatively you can submit a note here and hope some OSM contributor add it for you" for the following languages:

- Japanese
- Portuguese (BR)
- Czech
- Slovak

You can ask around here
1896  Economy / Economics / Re: The Risks and Rewards of Cryptocurrencies on: January 03, 2020, 08:44:32 AM
People will never be satisfied with the stability of crypto currencies because they were attracted to it because of its volatile nature. This is the reason why this market appeared unique to rest of the regular investment markets. If there would have been any way of making this market stable, people would have already done so. I personally feel that whales would not let it happen by any means

I for one don't think it is so much about volatility itself

On regular markets you can get comparable volatility as there are a multitude of investment instruments that are specifically designed to be volatile (for example, so-called volatility indexes, abbreviated as VIX). The difference between regular markets with their volatility tracking indexes and cryptocurrencies is twofold, and neither aspect or factor has anything to do with volatility as such

First of all, cryptomarkets are easily available to regular folks which is not the case with regular markets (the ironic pun seems to be inevitable here). And then, the instruments that such markets offer have a rather short life span as they quickly expire forcing you to liquidate, no matter whether you are in the red or in the green. With crypto, you can just sit on your hands and patiently wait out the bad times (not always helps, but the option is available at all times anyway)
1897  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What matters most to online casinos? on: January 03, 2020, 07:58:52 AM
I've been running a topic for the last few days, what attracts most people to online casino and what keeps them?
In my opinion, the most important indicator is the financial situation, as much as you got lost.
If it's not a tense background, it's very important to me that the background is calm and relaxes me.
Your opinion.

What I feel and I can vouch for the majority of people on this forum , the two most important things thay matter when it comes to online forum would be its UI/UX and KYC requirements. The interface should be easy to use and still attractive and also there is a preference of no KYC especially when it comes to dealing in crypto.

You missed one more important thing than UI and KYC, it is about provably fairness system. Nowadays, most crypto gambler wont play on sites which has no provably fair system because it is related to the result of our played game

It looks more like the other way around

I've seen people complaining about forced KYC when they were trying to withdraw their winnings, and still more so if they have won handsome amounts (don't really know how you can line up UI and KYC next to each other). On the other hand, I haven't seen too many people questioning the fairness of the games, at least as far as established casinos are concerned (like PrimeDice and its likes)

The point is, nowadays KYC seems to be a lot more intense pain in the ass for players than the games being provably fair, with provably fair becoming or having already become the de facto standard and established practice in the field. As I suspect, most gamblers don't even bother to check if they can check the fairness of the game for real, let alone actually going for it and checking it
1898  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2020 Bitcoin halving!!! Bull run??? on: January 03, 2020, 07:32:57 AM
I'm sure the naysayers will come up with yet another narrative for why the next bubble is "fake" too
Fake or not, as long as we can make dough, it's okay with me (more or less). With that said, though, what makes you think that the previous bubbles were not "fake" enough? Willy the Bot or Bitfinex the Tethers doesn't cut it, or what?

The price action. Take the 2013 bubble. It started going parabolic around $12. After the bubble popped, the price never returned below $150.

If all that demand were "fake" then why did price never return to $12 and below? Clearly between 2013 and 2015, real demand had increased significantly to keep prices so high

I mostly agree with this observation

I had been sticking around back in the day. In fact, I got to know crypto since October 2013 (due to Coinbase ads all over the place), and I'm 100% sure that I was not the only one who became aware of Bitcoin around that time (as it had been only about Bitcoin at the time). So the 2013 rally was definitely due to explosive demand, some part of which stayed after Billy had kicked the bucket

You can run the same exercise with the 2017 bubble. If it were "fake" then why is the market trading at $7K right now? Why not sub-$1200, or $0?

This is where I tend to disagree

If we analyze the price action in 2015-2017, we will see that Bitcoin started to rise in the fall of 2015 from below 200 dollars. Then halving had come, and the real price action began in late 2016 and early 2017, i.e. before Bitfinex started to pump the market with tethers. And in late 2018 we crashed to lower 3k's, basically to square one if you ask me (read, we shouldn't really take current prices as a point of reference) 

I disagree. Real buyers meeting real sellers on the order book is as real as it gets. That's real price discovery, which is all that matters

You don't know if the demand is real. Besides, even if it is, it doesn't mean that the growth is not speculative in and of itself, which is what makes it a bubble
1899  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Overview of trusted/recommended Translators on: January 02, 2020, 11:22:45 PM
I'm okay with this list as long as I'm on it
1900  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2020 Bitcoin halving!!! Bull run??? on: January 02, 2020, 09:11:46 PM
I'm sure the naysayers will come up with yet another narrative for why the next bubble is "fake" too

The most important thing is that it should be in the first place

Fake or not, as long as we can make dough, it's okay with me (more or less). With that said, though, what makes you think that the previous bubbles were not "fake" enough? Willy the Bot or Bitfinex the Tethers doesn't cut it, or what? Ask me and I'll tell you that any bubble is inherently fake. Also, I've heard rumors that a certain NYAG is looking into this matter now, apart from the two class actions filed on essentially the same assumption. Or should I better say accusation? As they say, what goes around comes about
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