Ultimately I agree with you, but let's look a bit more closely.  O.k.  Price dipped down from a high of less than 24 hours ago of $11,688 down to $10,835, so far, as I type this - which is about the price from 4 days ago.

So, really it took us 4 days to go up to $11,688, and then we are back down fairly quickly and then perhaps at a bottom here or maybe going to test lower.  My sell order at $11,700-ish was not triggered, so I was not able to buy any back at what would have been about $11k, instead my next buy order is at $10,700, and has not been triggered, yet, either.  

So the punchline... still in limbo land, here, and admittedly a tiny bit painful (like a mosquito bite) when orders almost trigger, but don't.  

In the end, we cannot necessarily rush these kinds of pricing matters, and just let the price come to our set orders, rather than jumping ahead or prematurely getting excited... Certainly suicide or any attempts at suicide should be considered a wee bit of an overreaction to this.

We know activity is updated every two weeks.  Last week activity was updated, so the next update of activity is next week (like Tuesday or Wednesday).

It is difficult to determine if you have any scintilla of seriousness in such a question.

Of course, theymos has discretion to determine the appointment of merit sources based on whatever criteria he believes is helpful to him, but he did provide a bit of guideline in the OP, and the most relevant sentence to your situation seems to be the interpretation of "somewhat established member." 

Does anything else need to be said?

This conversation is getting further and further into the ungrounded speculations... I say whoaza to all of it...

daily users = peeps who have held or used $1k of bitcoin over the past year   - 14 million peeps

recently fomoed - perhaps only $100 of bitcoin or more in the past year  - 45-70 million peeps  (that is just amazing speculation to assert)

total number "exposed" whatever that means (they heard about bitcoin - 700 million peeps .... OMG... you are grasping, and who cares about the 700 million who heard about bitcoin, they have not yet acted in any kind of material way, and if you really ask them to describe bitcoin, they have more than a 95% chance of getting it wrong in a large way and not having any kind of clue about how to get started or even having any motivation to get started.

I will agree with you that it is going to be amazing to get these 10% to onboard, but good luck accomplishing that in the next 5 years.


I  believe that Toxic really did justice to "toxic" this time, and perhaps it was hallucinogenic mushrooms?

I personally think that your entry threshold is way too high to constitute what would be an entry level adopter, but sure, I asked and you said what you think is a good number.  There were a couple of older threads on the topic, but I could only find one in my watchlist.. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

I do think that we have to consider that we have sporadic use in bitcoin, but we also have people in poor countries and even in developed countries who would be hard pressed to save $1,000 in a year (or to otherwise put money in bitcoin for spending)..  You may have come up with a possible average amount of ownership for the average user, but still we have to consider that possibly we have nearly 10k peeps who own more than 100 BTC,  which would likely restrict the number bitcoins that are available for everyone else.

What do you believe would be a good threshold level determine, "adoption"? I had suggested anyone holding or spending at least $100 within the past year or something like that.

Yeah but so what regarding a poster who said something? because posters say all kinds of dumb shit, including yours truly.  

Yet, after Paashaas made the unsubstantiated claim of something approaching 1% adoption, a couple of us asked for a more specific claim or evidence to support the bare naked 1% adoption assertion, and there are no such facts in evidence for such claim.

Even if you believe that such 1% is within "an order of magnitude's" reach, I doubt that you are going to find convincing evidence of any thing even approaching .5%, which would be about 35 million peeps, and that is even if you include all cryptos (not just bitcoin).


Sounds reasonable and fair.... Does it make much difference if we are referring to bitcoin only or if we are including all of the snot nosed 12 to 14 year olds in the altcoin scene?




14 million is the amount claimed by coinbase... Is that accurate?  So wouldn't the world's useage be double or triple that?

We are not getting to the 70 million arena (which would be close to 1%) merely based on extrapolations from coinbase's supposed user base, are we?

Ok.... .so where are we currently?  Let's say anyone that uses, used, holds or has held more than $100 in bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in the last year would count as an "adopter"... are we at .2% or .5% or something approaching 1%, currently?

Do you really believe that?

I guess I am asking the same question as Harry Berry.

The world population is about 7 billion, so anything approaching a 1% adoption rate would be around 70million peeps, and I would have a hard time believing that even half that number of peeps own more than $100 worth of bitcoin (or even if you include other cryptos, too). 

In other words, we gots our selfies a pretty small universe of adopters... and even getting up to 1% of the worlds population is likely going to cause a considerable increase in price, if it happens (or should I say when?).

Thanks for the explanation.

Certainly, I believe that an auction occurring in the future would be more relevant to thread discussions or BTC price dynamics or other happenings in the bitcoin space as compared with an auction that had already taken place - unless you were trying to make some kind of a point about the earlier auction.

I suppose it could be interesting to note, too, how many auctions of BTC are taking place on an ongoing basis and the quantity of coins, but I had not really been paying attention to whether there are any significant changes in quantity of coins auctioned or frequency of auctions - even though the combined number of coins, between the two auctions, is certainly a decent amount (more than 5k bitcoins auctioned by USA marshalls in past few months) involving various court cases.

Why you posting this information without describing the context?

It appears to be an auction that already took place January 18, 19, 2018... right?

What is the point that you are trying to make with this information?

I agree that it is a good idea to splurge a bit, here and there, and surely, I am a bit like you, I would rather buy a Tesla, a boat, some hookers and blow, rather than using the same amount of BTC profits that it would take to buy merely a Lambo... .but yeah, you would be less on the side of flamboyant wealth, while achieving more actual material (rather) than symbolic pleasures from the same amount of money.

So, for example, if you could afford a medium price-ranged Lambo (or the equivalent splurging) from merely 4% of your portfolio holdings, then if we place the cost of a medium range Lambo at about $250k, then you have assembled a portfolio in the $6million territory, which is surely nothing to sneeze at in terms of "fuck you" money. 

In about 2015, during much of the BTC price flat period, I had done a decent amount of calculations regarding attempting to figure out what levels of BTC portfolio holdings might be considered reasonable to maintain a decent entry level to passive income but still a decent reserve (emergency fund).  I had determined that $1million was no longer enough, based on inflation and all of that, so $3million seems more reasonable to have a bit of a cushion, too.  So, yeah, anything beyond those $3million levels is icing on the cake, even though the volatility of bitcoin might not let one rest with $3million if the BTC price goes down 70% (which we experienced from $19,666 to $5920), so having a decent cushion above $3million can cause the passive income sustainability assurances.

You may want to consider your typing style Jigsawman082076.   

Using ALLCAPS, once in a while, or strategically, may be o.k. to make your point(s), but if you overuse ALLCAPS, then members might chose not to read your post - and/or to conjure up negative impressions of you, which increases the probability that they will NOT merit you nor your seemingly attention hungry posts.

Also, substantively, you seem to be whining about something that the forum is attempting to achieve through its newly implemented merit policy, which is to screen out new members with potentially scammy and money grubbing focused intentions. 

Surely, it's understandable that people want to make money, but if you are not really ready, wiling or able to substantively contribute to the information that is shared on the forum, then currently, under this new merit system, you are going to have increased difficulties to be able to rank up with merely the passage of time and the making of non-substantive posts.

Maybe the system will be tweaked in the future, but in essence, in this above post, it seems that you are complaining about the very thing that the forum is intending to achieve, which is the screening out of members who are not making much if any contribution.

Your deleting of suchmoon's post seems to go to topical substance, and is not any kind of off-topic assertion.

I recall that suchmoon was responding to my post, which estimated your assertion to be that you are beyond math, and accordingly, I attempted to mathematically calculate your aspirations to be in the 110% territory - yet suchmoon was perhaps exaggerating when he asserted that you were aspiring to a 120% level of achievement...

Actually the more I type, the more I come to your thinking, alia.  Go figure.  Upon reflection, I think that suchmoon is completely wrong, and there is no fucking way that you are going to achieve beyond 115% achievement in your numbers... so I think that I am beginning to agree with you that suchmoon should not be able to proclaim 5% beyond what is even possible.  THAT IS RIDICULOUS.  I am glad that you deleted that outrageous suchmoon post based his EXAGGERATION.  SHAME on you suchmoon!!!!  I think that we should edit your avatar, too, suchmoon, just to show you how to keep things real.   

"Temporary?"

5 minutes?

30 minutes?

2 hours?

1/2 day?

one month?

Most traditional investment advisors will suggest that you can withdraw up to 4% per year of a sufficiently diversified investment portfolio and still maintain the principle.  At a certain point, if you believe that you have a "not going to be with us anymore" timeline, then your withdrawal strategy could safely become more aggressive because in those circumstances there might not be a need to preserve much if any principle.

Sure, you might decide to consider safeness or appreciation in bitcoin to be different from traditional investment strategies, yet personally, I don't see any significant reason to deviate greatly from a 4% per year withdrawal plan for BTC, and surely you are not locked into any withdrawal plan that you chose to follow, because if you begin to follow a 4% withdrawal plan for several years and BTC appreciates way above expectations of that plan, then you could become more aggressive on the withdrawal plan.  Any plan should provide guidelines and reason, but of course, situations and perspectives can cause a considerable amount of tweaking and playing around that hopefully such playing around does not devolve so far into gambling territory rather than exercising a decent amount prudence and reasoning.

I am not talking bullshit.... You seem to be reacting with emotion.  amirite?   

Oh of course, you have a right to propose changes to any given system, and you can also assert that we should go back to the original version and describe your vision in that regard, and generally, I have the right to assert that you are whining too. 

Each of these positions of the changed system and appeals to the original system can be described as negotiating positions, too, and each side can assert that his/her position is more reasonable than the other side's position.   But they are not equally valid, once the amendments have already passed and been accepted into the system.

I am not referring to any specifics here, except maybe we have been talking generally about proclamations regarding constitutional originalism  and we have also been referring to proclamations of bitcoin originalism.  Each of these systems have been amended with the passage of time, and my characterization of a position that wants to go back to the original as whining does not necessarily shut off the discussion, even though it might be reasonably understood as a sending of a message from me that I perceive that the originalist has not substantiated his/her position sufficiently with merely a proclamation that the original version is supposedly better than the amended one.

Furthermore, if any originalist wants to get rid of an amendment, usually the process of getting rid of the amendment (and returning to the original document) is just as burdensome as originally getting the amendment passed, so any originalist does not have any kind of easy road to whine and say that s/he wants to go back to the original because usually a process has already been followed that had caused the whole system to move from the original version to the amendment version and in order to get rid of the amendment the originalist usually would have the burden of production and persuasion to convince of such repeal that is frequently equal to the burdens that had been present to get the amendment(s) passed in the first place.

So, contrary to your assertions, I don't see how anything that I was saying was bullshit or suppressing discussion, but merely asserting that the whiners don't have some kind of easy path to get any matters reversed, so they better get their asses to work to produce and persuade beyond mere whining.   

I think that you and I are on a similar page in our thinking about buying luxury and depreciating assets with proceeds of our bitcoin investment, so I suppose that I am appealing to the more extravagant folks in this thread.  They do exist.

One thing that might need to be sussed out is whether we are presuming bitcoins to be the totality of your investments or what kind of size is th rest of your estate.   Let's just assume for the sake of argument that the bitcoin holdings constitute a vast majority of your whole wealth (at least 80% or more), and then your figure of 20% of 20% puts you at about 4% of your holdings, and even having some reservations about whether a Lambo would be prudent under those circumstances. 

I cannot really battle with you on those kind of personal thresholds, because I am likely similar to you in my thinking and probably less than 2% would be my personal threshold, as long as I was feeling sufficiently geared up otherwise to have a decent storage place for the thing and the other lifestyle drama that a lambo would likely bring into my life.. because there is no doubt that spending on a lambo should really symbolize that you have acquired a decent stash of "fuck you" money, rather than you have to stretch your finances in order to be able to fit such a purchase into your lifestyle.

That is definitely a problem for those who want to plan on "going out" balls to the walls, and end up living a bit longer than expected.

On the other hand, debt seems to be the American way - even though such exorbitant debt status can only be sustained for so long before it might begin to cause considerable real and material problems of property and asset seizures (prematurely - or at least outside of the going out balls to the walls expectations). 

What does that have to do with the price of tea in china?

Have you ever noticed seasons in which the sun does not travel the exact same path?  Have you ever noticed the number of hours of daylight differ depending on latitude and time of the year?

Non-flat earthers have no burden to explain these phenomenon because they are already supported with substantial evidence, logic and common sense by the spinning globe theory, including an earth with a tilting axis... Go figure?