Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

Just a little hypothesis I am playing around with. Its the ol' 1,2,3,4,1,2,3,BOOM maneuver.

1% adoption of bitcoin is 100% of what I expected in a good scenario. Most national currencies are used by less than 1% of the world. The idea of a whole world that uses bitcoin is a fantasy.

No back sliding! You were doing so good.

Ok.... .so where are we currently?  Let's say anyone that uses, used, holds or has held more than $100 in bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in the last year would count as an "adopter"... are we at .2% or .5% or something approaching 1%, currently?

"... are we at .2% or .5%."    0.390625%=$18620.3849896875      <  We are around here. Not even .4%

Bingo..I calculated around .4%..but was informed I was off by a factor of 20 so that would take us down to .002%. Dividing that by 7 billion leaves us with about 14 million users. Which to me sounds pretty damn close.

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[bitserve]

Just a little hypothesis I am playing around with. Its the ol' 1,2,3,4,1,2,3,BOOM maneuver.

1% adoption of bitcoin is 100% of what I expected in a good scenario. Most national currencies are used by less than 1% of the world. The idea of a whole world that uses bitcoin is a fantasy.

No back sliding! You were doing so good.

Ok.... .so where are we currently?  Let's say anyone that uses, used, holds or has held more than $100 in bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in the last year would count as an "adopter"... are we at .2% or .5% or something approaching 1%, currently?

"... are we at .2% or .5%."    0.390625%=$18620.3849896875      <  We are around here. Not even .4%

Bingo..I calculated around .4%..but was informed I was off by a factor of 20 so that would take us down to .002%. Dividing that by 7 billion leaves us with about 14 million users. Which to me sounds pretty damn close.

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

[cAPSLOCK]

It seems like we may be crossing the chasm....

"Carolina", he screamed again. "There's that damned wormtrain. Making snake straight across your chasm! Now what have I told you, if I ever caught him 'round here I'd whoop him." She said nothing, smoothed the sides of her dress, and sighed. "You know", she said, kicking the kitchen floor. "Maybe I might should just leave then." "The power is in you little lady," he said. He walked her to the window. "See that rainbow? Well, you just keep clicking those heels."

[JayJuanGee]

1% adoption of bitcoin is 100% of what I expected in a good scenario. Most national currencies are used by less than 1% of the world. The idea of a whole world that uses bitcoin is a fantasy.

Ok.... .so where are we currently?  Let's say anyone that uses, used, holds or has held more than $100 in bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in the last year would count as an "adopter"... are we at .2% or .5% or something approaching 1%, currently?

A different poster said we wereit's already at 1%. I'm not sure if I agree we are actually there yet. It might be off by say, just 1 order of magnitude.

Yeah but so what regarding a poster who said something? because posters say all kinds of dumb shit, including yours truly.  

Yet, after Paashaas made the unsubstantiated claim of something approaching 1% adoption, a couple of us asked for a more specific claim or evidence to support the bare naked 1% adoption assertion, and there are no such facts in evidence for such claim.

Even if you believe that such 1% is within "an order of magnitude's" reach, I doubt that you are going to find convincing evidence of any thing even approaching .5%, which would be about 35 million peeps, and that is even if you include all cryptos (not just bitcoin).

Ok.... .so where are we currently?  Let's say anyone that uses, used, holds or has held more than $100 in bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in the last year would count as an "adopter"... are we at .2% or .5% or something approaching 1%, currently?

"... are we at .2% or .5%."    0.390625%=$18620.3849896875      <  We are around here. Not even .4%

Bingo..I calculated around .4%..but was informed I was off by a factor of 20 so that would take us down to .002%. Dividing that by 7 billion leaves us with about 14 million users. Which to me sounds pretty damn close.

Sounds reasonable and fair.... Does it make much difference if we are referring to bitcoin only or if we are including all of the snot nosed 12 to 14 year olds in the altcoin scene?

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

14 million is the amount claimed by coinbase... Is that accurate?  So wouldn't the world's useage be double or triple that?

We are not getting to the 70 million arena (which would be close to 1%) merely based on extrapolations from coinbase's supposed user base, are we?

[Toxic2040]

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

I am talking actual users..not zombie accounts. I subtracted that factor of 20 from it after someone suggested I was off in my calculation of broad money. I thought I had posted that back of the napkin calc in this thread sometime ago..

[Phil_S]

Crypto Chart Visionary Art
https://twitter.com/manwithnoname49

Nice!

[JayJuanGee]

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

I am talking actual users..not zombie accounts. I subtracted that factor of 20 from it after someone suggested I was off in my calculation of broad money. I thought I had posted that back of the napkin calc in this thread sometime ago..

What do you believe would be a good threshold level determine, "adoption"? I had suggested anyone holding or spending at least $100 within the past year or something like that.

[Toxic2040]

Crypto Chart Visionary Art
https://twitter.com/manwithnoname49

Nice!

+5 WOsMerits

Ya..I ment to drop some of that dudes ch-arts in here..refreshing.

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

I am talking actual users..not zombie accounts. I subtracted that factor of 20 from it after someone suggested I was off in my calculation of broad money. I thought I had posted that back of the napkin calc in this thread sometime ago..

What do you believe would be a good threshold level determine, "adoption"? I had suggested anyone holding or spending at least $100 within the past year or something like that.

I was thinking more along the lines of $1000 usd per annum. This is $2.73972602739726usd a day. Probably reasonable for a basic user.
Total crypto market cap - $460,981,764,628/14,000,000=$32927.268902
Bitcoin market cap  - $192,042,420,739/14,000,000=$13717.31576707143

It always amazes me when you start crunching the numbers and correlation occurs...its why I love math I suppose. I find it odd that the number I have in bold is remarkably similar to what our price is atm. I ran into this same fractal when doing the percentages to broad money. Where I was doing each halving the price mirrored the actual price of bitcoin at that time.

[starmman]

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I was thinking more along the lines of $1000 usd per annum. This is $2.73972602739726usd a day. Probably reasonable for a basic user.
Total crypto market cap - $460,981,764,628/14,000,000=$32927.268902
Bitcoin market cap  - $192,042,420,739/14,000,000=$13717.31576707143

It always amazes me when you start crunching the numbers and correlation occurs...its why I love math I suppose. I find it odd that the number I have in bold is remarkably similar to what our price is atm. I ran into this same fractal when doing the percentages to broad money. Where I was doing each halving the price mirrored the actual price of bitcoin at that time.

I personally think that your entry threshold is way too high to constitute what would be an entry level adopter, but sure, I asked and you said what you think is a good number.  There were a couple of older threads on the topic, but I could only find one in my watchlist.. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

I do think that we have to consider that we have sporadic use in bitcoin, but we also have people in poor countries and even in developed countries who would be hard pressed to save $1,000 in a year (or to otherwise put money in bitcoin for spending)..  You may have come up with a possible average amount of ownership for the average user, but still we have to consider that possibly we have nearly 10k peeps who own more than 100 BTC,  which would likely restrict the number bitcoins that are available for everyone else.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?

It may be but I think bitcoin dominance is not so important now because it has more than 1500 competitors and most alts have no cap on the coins that can be issued.

[HairyMaclairy]

There are 57.5 million Utxo.   An awful lot of these must be dust or lost keys.  I would have contributed to the dust.

That said I assume Coinbase has far less UTXO than users.

[Toxic2040]

14 million is the amount claimed by coinbase... Is that accurate?  So wouldn't the world's useage be double or triple that?

We are not getting to the 70 million arena (which would be close to 1%) merely based on extrapolations from coinbase's supposed user base, are we?

Actual daily users..  14 mio
People who fomo'd recently and long term hodlers who dont use bitcoin daily.  45-70 mio about .5%-1%
Total number of people exposed to bitcoin and crypto this last hype cycle.  700 mio or about 10% of the planet.

As with any exponential increase its almost impossible to really grasp hold of whats really going on even if its right in front of your eyes. The human mind just can not visualize those kinds of numbers. You have to trust in mathematics.

The jump from where we are at 14 million..or 70 million(which I feel is probably more accurate) to 700 million is going to blow our minds.

[Karartma1]

Crypto Chart Visionary Art
https://twitter.com/manwithnoname49

Nice!

Absolutely marvelous works of crypto art! Thanks for sharing, now I know where to get Desktop Wallpaper from!
Amazing

[HairyMaclairy]

Can you provide a source for 14 million daily users?  Was that on the FoMO peak day?

[Maricel2017]

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?

I think more than that dude. Bitcoin will hit $13000 again for this month.

[Rosewater Foundation]

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?

I think more than that dude. Bitcoin will hit $13000 again for this month.

It will dump just before hitting high noon. Harry just went over this.

Edit: Here

Edit:  the real dump will come when we touch $12k or just before.

[madwica]

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?

We will do simple party if that would happen. Simple celebration showing i got good enough profit for the continuous increasing of bitcoin value.

[Last of the V8s]

I keep saying it and it keeps happening.

The one no-one's watching - Unobtanium. Now 4 years old.

Try getting your hands on it - you can't.

Now $170. Immense !!

Lead dev Bryce Weiner. scammy dubious. noty.

[JayJuanGee]

14 million is the amount claimed by coinbase... Is that accurate?  So wouldn't the world's useage be double or triple that?

We are not getting to the 70 million arena (which would be close to 1%) merely based on extrapolations from coinbase's supposed user base, are we?

Actual daily users..  14 mio
People who fomo'd recently and long term hodlers who dont use bitcoin daily.  45-70 mio about .5%-1%
Total number of people exposed to bitcoin and crypto this last hype cycle.  700 mio or about 10% of the planet.

As with any exponential increase its almost impossible to really grasp hold of whats really going on even if its right in front of your eyes. The human mind just can not visualize those kinds of numbers. You have to trust in mathematics.

The jump from where we are at 14 million..or 70 million(which I feel is probably more accurate) to 700 million is going to blow our minds.

This conversation is getting further and further into the ungrounded speculations... I say whoaza to all of it...

daily users = peeps who have held or used $1k of bitcoin over the past year   - 14 million peeps

recently fomoed - perhaps only $100 of bitcoin or more in the past year  - 45-70 million peeps  (that is just amazing speculation to assert)

total number "exposed" whatever that means (they heard about bitcoin - 700 million peeps .... OMG... you are grasping, and who cares about the 700 million who heard about bitcoin, they have not yet acted in any kind of material way, and if you really ask them to describe bitcoin, they have more than a 95% chance of getting it wrong in a large way and not having any kind of clue about how to get started or even having any motivation to get started.

I will agree with you that it is going to be amazing to get these 10% to onboard, but good luck accomplishing that in the next 5 years.

Can you provide a source for 14 million daily users?  Was that on the FoMO peak day?

I  believe that Toxic really did justice to "toxic" this time, and perhaps it was hallucinogenic mushrooms?