#12 l UCL l Dortmund – Inter l under 2,5 l 2,07 l 8,81 Euro l Pinnacle
#13 l UCL l Valencia – Lille l under 2,5 l 1,83 l 8,64 l Pinnacle
Two losers again. Valencia under looked rather good for a long time, but Lille just imploded in the latter stages. Bank: 423,12 Euro W/L: 2-11 Yield: -65,46% I like two unders from todays CL matches. #14 l UCL l Bayern - Olympiacos l Olympiacos under 0,5 l 2,22 l 8,46 Euro l Pinnacle Slightly different bet this time, but I like it very much. Bayern sacked Kovac and Flick has taken over as interim coach. Bayern are sitting comfortably at the top of the table in their group and their main goal in the next few games is to play more organized and get some stability in defense (though they are missing Hernandez and Süle). Bayern won't go all out here and open space for Olympiacos - they have the big match against in Dortmund in mind, so after having probably a 2-0 lead, they will sit back and save their energies. Olympiacos will have a hard time scoring here. #15 l UCL l Atalanta - ManCity l under 3,5 l 1,81 l 8,29 Euro l Pinnacle ManCity is in the same situation as Bayern, not form-wise, but table-wise. They will take first place in this extremely weak group. And they have bigger things coming up in the next days, e.g. playing Liverpool on Sunday. So they won't waste any energy here, probably rotating a bit. We saw yesterday with Liverpool what happens then. ManCity will want to control the game, maybe take the lead and then sit back to get back to UK asap and prepare for Liverpool. They might be even satisfied with a draw here, a loss won't do no harm as well in the end. |
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It will be very profitable if you do this. The problem is, you won't find these kind of odds  Some 15 years ago you could earn good money with just playing surebets, but nowadays this is a pretty hard business. With more or less centralized odds, the amount of surebets have gone down a lot. And the sure % you can make has also gone down. Bookmakers don't like surebetters, so the longer you do this, the more problems will arise, e.g. bookmakers closing your account or limiting you to ridiculous low limits. And since most surebets are found between the non-asian bookmakers, you are in dire need of accounts with these bookmakers. There is also some risk involved of losing most of your bank even though this way of betting is considered to be "sure". That is when either one bookmaker decides to void your bet out of the blue or when you bet on sports where there are different rules for the sports. For example in Tennis, if a player retires, one bookmaker might void your (winning) bet, while with the other bookmaker your bet stands and you lose your stake there. There are lots of websites with surebets, if you google for it, here is one example: https://www.oddsportal.com/sure-bets/ |
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Not only Bitcointalk has a special birthday this year, but Pacman will have its 40th anniversary next year too. So why not combine these two. My entry for the art contest: PACMAN - BLOCKCHAIN EDITIONThis is the original and I guess everyone knows it:  This is the Bitcointalk 10th anniversary Blockchain Edition of it at 100%:  Not much to see here, so lets put it at 10%, which is lowest it can get with Excel:  I have another version for better visibility:  And another one with yummy Bitcoins for little Pacman:  I did all this with Excel, since I am a lousy artist/illustrator:  Some closer look:  The enemies of our little Pacman:  BTC address: 39hy5pTxntaHWcip6ukPTsqd7GgJ6ryUa7 Adding a second entry. Couldn't decide which one I like best, so I'll post them all:     |
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We all screwed up in the past by playing individually
This is no wonder  Judging by one of your posts.... I would say skip German leagues to go under 2.5 goals. German and for example dutch leagues are known for lots of goals.
....you seem to have no idea about value and the importance of odds vs probabilty when doing sportsbetting. Super Heinz or Goliaths are not made for lowish odds, you should play high(er) odds with those systems. Just one losing selection makes you barely go breakeven, two losing selections put you already in the red. System bets are fun and can bring you huge money with low stakes, but building a bankroll with them is pretty ambitious - especially when you are using the wrong bets/odds with them. Anyway, good luck and don't forget to post some losing bets inbetween as well, so people don't get a wrong impression here  |
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XAYA ELECTRUM WALLETIn addition to the Electron and QT wallet the Xaya team released the new Xaya Electrum wallet BETA for Windows, Linux and Android today. Mac will come soon too. This means you can start playing instantly now, there is no need to download the blockchain and no syncing required. You keep your private keys and with the seed phrase you are able to control your CHI across multiple devices. Remember this is a Beta version and for testing only, so don't store/send huge amounts of CHI there. Download the wallet here: XAYA walletsSee the whole blog post about the new wallet here: https://medium.com/@XAYA/xaya-electrum-wallet-beta-release-16329158ca17
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#11 l GER2 l Wehen - Hamburg l under 2,5 l 2,57 l 8,54 Euro l Pinnacle
Found another winner here. Was pretty comfortable as Wehen scored the equalizer only in injury time. Hamburg could have scored a dozen here, but were just too pathetic to put the ball over the line. Bank: 440,57 Euro W/L: 2-9 Yield: -59,43% Adding two matches from Champions League here: #12 l UCL l Dortmund – Inter l under 2,5 l 2,07 l 8,81 Euro l PinnacleI expect Inter to play ultra-defensively. All they want is probably a draw here. If they happen to lose, they should take care not losing the H2H as it might be important in the end. Dortmund isn’t convincing me lately and I expect thm to have a hard time scoring here. #13 l UCL l Valencia – Lille l under 2,5 l 1,83 l 8,64 l PinnacleVery important match for both. While Valencia could eventually live with a draw, Lille needs to win here badly to have any hope for promotion to the Playoffs. Problem is, they are probably too weak to get anything going in Mestalla and opening a shootout with the hosts might not be a good idea. Both teams weren’t very successful in finding the back of the net of their opponents in this years CL campaign scoring only 2 goals each so far. Expecting both teams to take a more careful approach at first with the game being more open the closer we get to the final whistle, but that may be too late for 3+ goals. |
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It's too risky to take under 2.5 in big matches especially if a strong team against a weak team will make a lot of goals.
That would mean that it's un-risky to take over 2,5 in these kind of games, no ? Wonder why everyone is still going to work every day. I'm guessing OP is forcing himself to take odds above 2 because it only takes a 50% win rate to recover while on lower odds you'll need to go slightly above since you're getting less.
Not forcing myself, but sticking with under 2,5 mainly and you won't find lots of odds below 2,00 for under 2,5 in german leagues #6 l GER2 l Aue - Heidenheim l under 2,5 l 2,06 l 9,04 Euro l SBO
#7 l GER2 l Fürth - Darmstadt l under 2,5 l 2,00 l 8,86 Euro l SBO
#8 l GER2 l St. Pauli - Karlsruhe l under 2,5 l 2,19 l 8,68 Euro l SBO
#9 l GER1 l Leverkusen - Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,73 l 8,51 Euro l Pinnacle
#10 l GER1 l Frankfurt - Bayern l under 3,5 l 2,03 l 8,34 Euro l SBO
Well, found at least one under this time Lots of goals were scored in GER1+GER2 yesterday - only 2 unders in 9 games with an average of 3,89 goals per game. Bank: 427,16 Euro W/L: 1-9 Yield: -79,64% Only one under for today that I like out of 5 matches: #11 l GER2 l Wehen - Hamburg l under 2,5 l 2,57 l 8,54 Euro l PinnacleWehen promoted this season and learned that their offensive-minded playing style won't work in this league. So they switched to a more defensive approach. And it paid off, they are 2-2-0 since then with 1-3 over/under. Last two matches finished 0-0. I don't think they will score today against powerhouse Hamburg. If Hamburg manages to score 3 then is to be seen. |
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Will you try again?
Probably yes, but will take a bit of a break. It's quite some fun doing it, but it's way harder to find suitable bets than one might think. I guess the only other question is should the bank be 0.00 or -144.22?
It is and should be 0,00. At the start of this challenge the bank was 100,00. It grew to 144,22 and those 144,22 were lost with the last bet and now the bank is 0,00. Cambuur, being top of the table, probably have better defense than other teams. They've only let in 8 goals on the year. Their goals for/goals against is 30:8. Maybe if doing the lay 0-0 strategy it would be better on teams with high goals for/against like Jong Ajax (36:18) https://www.flashscore.com/match/Qkr4cIVJ/#standings;table;overall or identifying teams like this in other leagues that score while having a leaky defense. Or choosing leagues that appear to have the most goals to lay 0:0 https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_leagues_ordered_by_number_of_goals.php Netherlands average is pretty high though (Netherlands-Eredivisie-3.38 goals per game avg). I think it would be interesting to try this strategy with a few other bet types Heavy favorites in boxing or MMA, in situations where an easy fight is setup to show off a prospect Betting against overtime occurring in the NBA/NFL Betting on tennis heavy favorites to win set handicap of +1.5 I wasn't able to watch the match of Cambuur, so can't really judge, if it was a boring match with few action or if it was just one of those days where nothing would go in and goal posts were like 2m wide Funny side note is, that I first thought about taking Grafschaap with lay 0-0 again as I previously did, but decided for Cambuur as they were scoring heavily at home so far. Grafschaap game ended 0-0 as well. All other NED2 games didn't finish 0-0 that day. Boxing and MMA could work, but I am just not into these sports. From what I know, there is only fights in the weekends as well and that is too few. I wouldn't touch "no overtime" bets in NBA and for NFL those games that are very unlikely to go to overtime, the odds are just 1,01 and you need average odds of 1,02 for this challenge. You can get higher odds for "no overtime", but then the teams are quite balanced and for me personally this is too risky then. Tennis could work, but season is basically over for now and the events in Shenzhen for womens and Paris for the mens only featured the best of the best, so no low odds. The bets I still like most for this kind of challenge are found in Handball and Volleyball. Preferrably women teams at home. and bet on sports where there is no draw... like tennis
Most bets only had 2 outcomes: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195331.msg52953525#msg52953525 |
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Es geht also (für mich) in erster Linie nicht um die +1 im Streak, sondern darum, meinen Ertrag/keinen Verlust zu haben.
Ok, dann kannst es natürlich so spielen (kannst ja sowieso spielen, was du gerne möchtest ). Aber da wir uns im Streak-Thread befinden, muss man natürlich neben "protect your bank" auch die Bedingungen der Streak-Challenge im Hinterkopf haben und hier möglichst nichts verschenken. Wie auch immer. Bin jetzt wohl bei 2 (Pauli-KSC bts und Sieg Fürth). Fürth Sieg habe ich allerdings ausgecasht, keine Ahnung, ob das dann noch zählt. Für GER1 habe ich mal BVB Sieg und Werder-Freiburg bts gespielt. |
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Mal ein update hier Taurion SchatzsucheDie Taurion Schatzsuche war ein voller Erfolg und bis auf 3x Goldpreis wurden alle Preise gefunden. Die erfolgreichsten Spieler haben über $1000 in BTC/ETH, zahlreiche trading cards/items und Anteile für Mannschaften bei Soccer Manager Elite gewonnen. Bereits zur Halbzeit waren fast alle Preise gefunden, was auch für das Xaya Team überraschend war, und dann ging es darum, sich die combat Preise zu sichern. Das Ziel dieser Schatzsuche war es natürlich auch, Bugs zu finden und es wurden einige gefunden. Neben dem Beseitigen dieser Bugs wird natürlich auch das Spiel an sich weiterentwickelt und für Dezember ist ein weiterer Wettkampf geplant, der mehr game-play enthalten wird (Gebäude, Mining etc.) Atomic TransactionsDas Xaya Team hat ein Tutorial veröffentlicht, wie man atomic transactions initiieren kann. Dies erlaubt das dezentralisierte Handeln von (in diesem Fall Gaming-) Vermögenswerten. Jede Partei bekommt genau das, was vereinbart wurde. Dies führt zur Elimination von Betrug und macht die doch teilweise etwas anrüchige Gaming-Szene sicherer. https://github.com/xaya/xaya_tutorials/wiki/Atomic-TransactionsPräsentation bei UbisoftAuf Einladung von Ubisoft durfte das Xaya Team seine Technologie beim Videospielgiganten Ubisoft präsentieren. Genauere Ergebnisse sind natürlich nicht bekannt (gegeben worden), aber die Tatsache, dass Ubisoft auf Xaya zugegangen ist, ist für ein doch (noch) sehr kleines Projekt, wie es Xaya ist, doch schon ein großer Erfolg. Soccer Manager EliteZu guter letzt das Sorgenkind im Xaya Ökosystem  SME ist wohl das Spiel, auf das die meisten Xaya-Interessierten hinfiebern, aber bereitet auch die größten Sorgen. Mittlerweile gibt es hier schon eine Verzögerung von einem Jahr und das Soccer Manager Team hüllt sich in Schweigen. Die game mechanics sind wohl nicht so einfach auf die Blockchain zu bringen und die Entwickler von Soccer Manager sind halt keine Blockchain-Devs. Und ist das Spiel erstmal released, gibt es kein zurück - Fluch und Segen der Blockchain-Technologie. Mitllerweile ist die closed alpha gestartet an der ich auch teilnehme, aber leider nichts sagen darf. Diese Spiel hat enormes Potential mMn und wird viele Leute mit Krypto vertraut machen, die bisher noch nicht damit in Berührung gekommen sind, aber es ist noch viel Arbeit. Angeblich ist der Release immer noch für "early next year" vorgesehen, aber ich bin skeptisch, ob das wirklich passieren wird. Es gibt meines Wissens eine handvoll Leute, die ihre eigenen Spiele auf der Xaya blockchain entwickeln, aber es ist nichts Näheres bekannt. Grundsätzlich liefert das Xaya Team enorm gute Arbeit ab, aber es braucht halt alles seine Zeit |
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Sehr cool, ich habe es dann auch mal in Angriff genommen. Streak startet in 3,2,1  Währung ist übrigens LTC, daher die 0.20 (equivalent 1 m BTC) Ist eigentlich nicht so klug, die 3/4 Handicaps/over/under zu spielen. Nur wenn du die Wette komplett gewinnst, zählt es auch für den Streak. Will heissen, du brauchst mindestens 2 Tore in der ersten Halbzeit. |
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Just asking wasn't better to try to bet on something with only 2 outputs?
I mean, if you can find something where it can be only x or y instead of x or y or z that's should reduce the possibility of the crazy event during the game.
For example, on a Tennis match, you can never draw while on a football match (aka soccer for Americans) you can have 1 or X or 2 as results.
Most of the bets had only 2 outcomes For the last lost bet, it's either 0-0 or not^^ And I played 1X and X2 in football, which only has 2 outcomes as well. Same for Volleyball and Basketball ML bets, they just play until there is a winner, there is no draw. Individual sports are not good for low odds imo, because you are relying on just ONE athlete and every human being has a bad day every now and then - and there is the possibility of injury too. If Ronaldo has a bad day, the other players can still compensate it, not possible if you bet on an individual athlete. In tennis you could think about laying the underdog 3-0 in Grand Slams, as the bet is voided when there is a retirement. But that still doesn't protect you from a strong favourite having an absolute off-day. |
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#5 l GER2 l Regensburg - Osnabrück l under 2,5 l 2,17 l 9,22 Euro l SBO
3-3, I guess even a monkey could do better, unders just suck big time Bank: 451,97 Euro W/L: 0-5 Yield: -100% But I have to get to 100 bets, lets see how long it takes until I find a winner. #6 l GER2 l Aue - Heidenheim l under 2,5 l 2,06 l 9,04 Euro l SBO
#7 l GER2 l Fürth - Darmstadt l under 2,5 l 2,00 l 8,86 Euro l SBO
#8 l GER2 l St. Pauli - Karlsruhe l under 2,5 l 2,19 l 8,68 Euro l SBOGoing with under in all GER2 matches on Saturday as all those teams are underish teams in my book (Aue is pretty overish this season, but normally they are clear under team). Often times when two underish teams meet, there is some kind of goal festival, hope this is not the case tomorrow. For GER1, I took these unders: #9 l GER1 l Leverkusen - Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,73 l 8,51 Euro l PinnacleI wouldn't be surprised to see loads of goals here, but those under odds are very good. Gladbach on away games has a tendency for unders and Leverkusen wasn't very sharp offensively lately. #10 l GER1 l Frankfurt - Bayern l under 3,5 l 2,03 l 8,34 Euro l SBOBayern isn't super confident at the moment, they won the last 3 games, but played poorly. There weren't a lot of matches going over 3,5 when Bayern visited Frankfurt in recent years and I don't see a lot of goals this year as well. |
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#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair
LOSTBank: 0,00 Euro W-L: 11-1 Average odds: 1,03 Rather few goals in NED2 today everywhere. Will have to fine tune the bet selection and be probably back with another try soon. Awaiting the shitstorm now |
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Would be nice if you could add your current balance so we can see how well you have done.
You must be on around $130+ now right?
I post the current balance always with every new bet You can see all the bets I have played so far in the first post, I edit regularly. Now I'm thinking of doing the same too but using a small amount of Bitcoin only. Like 0.001 BTC and will play on basketball only like NBA or PBA  . Will be hard with only NBA and/or PBA. I actually think NBA is undoable, because a) the teams are not that far apart quality wise and b) one single game doesn’t count that much, when you have 80+ games per season. You must be ultra selective and will probably have to do that for years. Not a lot of people have that discipline and stamina. I am not into PBA, but mens Basketball in general is not easy for “bankers”. But anyway good luck if you give it a try. Do you see value in something like 1.02 or 1.05 odds?
I do, yes. There can be value in any odds, 1,01, 1,30, 2,50, 1000. Problem with low odds is, that you just don’t win that much with a single bet, but value is value. Back in the days there was a guy in a betting forum, that only played low odds (in fact he was actually trading, but you have to look for value as well, when trading) and he was pretty successful doing it. He once posted a screenshot of his winnings (all amounts in Euro):  He of course had a huge bank and the markets were pretty imperfect in those days, but it still shows, that it is possible to be successful with low odds. You can be successful with any kind of odds and sports, if you put in the work. #11 l Basketball l GER1 l Ludwigsburg vs Hamburg l Ludwigsburg ML l 1,11 l 129,93 l Betsson
WONBank: 144,22 Euro W-L: 11-0 Average odds: 1,03 #12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair Cambuur pretty spectacular home side this season, 5-0/3-2/5-1/4-0/5-1 have been their scores so far. Nijmegen managed to keep a clean sheet in their last league match at Jong AZ, lets see, if they can do it back to back. Even if they do, there is still the possibility that they themselves score to make this bet a winner. |
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#5 l GER2 l Regensburg - Osnabrück l under 2,5 l 2,17 l 9,22 Euro l SBO
Osnabrück failed to score in their last 4 matches and I doubt they will be able to score today. On the other hand they are pretty stable defensively, never conceiding a lot. In total they have 8 unders out of 11 matches played. Regensburg is no scoring machine. They lost some good players in summer break and still looking to find their rhythm. I see a low scoring game with the most likely outcomes being 0-0, 1-0 or 2-0.
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Higher odds are always better than low odds and history has proven that with literally every sport.
Could you elaborate on that, please ? Isn't it the value that counts ? Are you planning to stop the experiment if your streak will be broken?
If I lose a bet before getting to one million, this challenge has failed of course and will be stopped. But I will probably give it a new try with a new thread then #10 l Football l MLS l Atlanta vs Toronto l lay 0-2 (@40) l 1,02 l 126,84 l Betfair
WONBank: 129,93 Euro W-L: 10-0 Average odds: 1,03 Nothing for today, so I'll already post the bet for tomorrow, which I had in my book since last weekend. #11 l Basketball l GER1 l Ludwigsburg vs Hamburg l Ludwigsburg ML l 1,11 l 129,93 l Betsson Hamburg by far the poorest team qualitywise in German Basketball league. Most of their guys are just too weak for this league. Ludwigsburg has very nice team this year, especially their backcourt is super strong. Ludwigsburg is just superior on every position, so I see easy home win. |
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#9 l Volleyball l GER1 l BR Volleys - Eltmann l BR Volleys ML l 1,03 l 123,15 l Bet365
WONBank: 126,84 Euro W-L: 9-0 Average odds: 1,03 #10 l Football l MLS l Atlanta vs Toronto l lay 0-2 (@40) l 1,02 l 126,84 l Betfair Conference Final. Atlanta never fails to score at home, while Toronto struggles most of the time to keep a clean sheet. Atlanta has their faboulous four (Martinez, Martinez, Barco, Gressel) available for this match, while Toronto's Jozy Altidore is still questionable with a squad strain. Even if he will return to the pitch today, he won't be at 100% and Toronto will most likely keep on struggling offensively. |
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Monsterkombi ftw  Kaiserslautern - Nürnberg 1X / der Betze wird brennen Verl - Kiel 1X / Verl souveräner Tabellenführer in RL West und Kiel ist nicht so dolle diese Saison Wolfsburg - Leipzig bts / Hätte ja letztens auch schon geklappt Werder - Heidenheim 6+ / Bisschen zum anfetten, man erinnert sich an FCB-HDH letzten DFB-Pokal Pauli - Frankfurt bts / mit dem Publikum im Rücken, sollte Pauli hier auch netzen können Düsseldorf - Aue X2 / bei Düsseldorf bisschen Sand im Getriebe und Aue ist eklig zu spielen Hertha - Dresden 1HCX / Dresden unfassbar harmlos offensiv, aber Hertha chronische Pokal-Versager, also wirds nur ein knapper Sieg^^ Ich beginne an deine Kombi zu glauben... Wölfe machen mir gerade bisschen Angst aber sonst... läuft tyKiwanuka könnte jetzt 11.6 mBTC auscashen aber er will mehr! Auch Mole noch im Rennen! Close, but no cigar Leider war die cashout Funktion für die gesamte Spielzeit der späten Spiele geschlossen, so dass ausser Spesen nichts gewesen ist. Nach dem frühen 1-1 von Hertha in HT2 und nachdem Aue bis zur 75. Minute das 1-1 in Düsseldorf halten konnte, hätte man hier sicher in der Mitte der 2. Halbzeit um die 100-150mBTC auscashen können, aber die zuständigen Mitarbeiter waren wohl schon im Feierabend - es sei ihnen gegönnt. Nichtsdestotrotz war es ein netter Abend mit @efialtis und den Harkemase Boys in Telegram, danke dafür |
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#1 l CUPGER l Kaiserslautern – Nuremberg I under 2,5 l 2,08 l 10,00 Euro l Dafabet
#2 l CUPGER l Wolfsburg – Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 9,80 Euro l bwin
#3 l CUPGER l Dortmund – Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,58 l 9,60 Euro l Pinnacle
#4 l CUPGER l Düsseldorf – Aue l under 2,5 l 2,30 l 9,41 Euro l Bet365
Well, this was pretty poor This under-phobia seems to be a nasty disease and the curing might take some time. The unders in Kaiserslautern and Düsseldorf were already on life support at halftime, when 2 goals each were already scored. So these going over was no surprise. Leipzig led only 1-0 at half-time, but Wolfsburg decided to field their womens team for the second half, so Leipzig dominated at will from then on and won 6-1 in the end. Dortmund under looked good until 71st minute with no goals. But 3 goals in 9 minutes destroyed that under too. 7/8 matches went over in the cup matches today. Better luck next time hopefully Bank: 461,19 Euro W/L: 0-4 Yield: -100% |
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