Monsterkombi ftw  Kaiserslautern - Nürnberg 1X / der Betze wird brennen Verl - Kiel 1X / Verl souveräner Tabellenführer in RL West und Kiel ist nicht so dolle diese Saison Wolfsburg - Leipzig bts / Hätte ja letztens auch schon geklappt Werder - Heidenheim 6+ / Bisschen zum anfetten, man erinnert sich an FCB-HDH letzten DFB-Pokal Pauli - Frankfurt bts / mit dem Publikum im Rücken, sollte Pauli hier auch netzen können Düsseldorf - Aue X2 / bei Düsseldorf bisschen Sand im Getriebe und Aue ist eklig zu spielen Hertha - Dresden 1HCX / Dresden unfassbar harmlos offensiv, aber Hertha chronische Pokal-Versager, also wirds nur ein knapper Sieg^^ |
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Does anyone of you play unders in Football ? I basically never did it and the few times I did, I hated it. Who in this world is watching/following a football match and doesn’t want to see goals scored ? Unless you are fan of a team of course and want it to win…..but even then, if your team is leading 2-0 you would be biting your nails and hope your team DOES NOT to score another goal – this is just madness.
The problem with this is, that I think there is loads of value in playing unders, just because people love playing overs and thus the odds are driven down a lot often times. This threads purpose is to get rid of my under-phobia and I will document my possible healing publicly.
I will mainly stick with german competitions (GER1, GER2 and Cup) mixing it up with other leagues every now and then if I stumble across something, in my opinion, worthwhile. If this whole thing isn’t too nerve-wrecking, I will try to play 100 unders and see where I stand after that.
I will start with only 500,- Euro and stake 2% flat to prevent any heart attacks. Will do short write-ups for the bets I am playing.
The first bets for todays cup matches in Germany:
#1 l CUPGER l Kaiserslautern – Nuremberg I under 2,5 l 2,08 l 10,00 Euro l Dafabet
Kaiserslautern sort of underish team, especially at home. For today they will probably park the bus and go on from there. Nuremberg has huge trouble against defensive-minded teams so I don’t see lots of goals scored.
#2 l CUPGER l Wolfsburg – Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 9,80 Euro l bwin
Both teams very well organized and with troubles scoring lately. Wolfsburg has played under in 8 of their 13 matches this season and they will probably sit back first and watch how things unfold, while Leipzig isn’t the most confident team in the world right now as well. Their Bundesliga match some days ago in Leipzig ended 1-1.
#3 l CUPGER l Dortmund – Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,58 l 9,60 Euro l Pinnacle
Dortmund really poor right now, only scored one goal in their last 3 matches, but only conceded twice as well. Gladbach rather underish tendency on travels, Bundesliga match some days ago ended 1-0.
#4 l CUPGER l Düsseldorf – Aue l under 2,5 l 2,30 l 9,41 Euro l Bet365
Aue has surprised me this season. There is lots of goals scored in their matches this season, but I don’t see them doing anything for the game today. They will sit back and look for counter attacks. Düsseldorf is missing some important creative players and are not the most confident team right now, so they will struggle to find the back of the net against this Aue team.
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Freiburg - Union Berlin / Tipp 2
HSV - VfB / Tipp 2
Darmstadt 98 - KSC / Tipp 2  ich will ja nix sagen aber wenn ich mich nicht verguckt habe hätte der tipp gewonnen  vermutlich möchte ich die verpasste gesamtquote garnicht sehen... gewinne eben nur wenn es um nichts geht  Hast dich aber verguckt  Zwar hat Stuttgart gewonnen, aber erst in der Verlängerung. Solange es nicht explizit angegeben ist, zählt immer das Resultat nach 90 Minuten und das war 1-1. Gesamtquote war irgendwas um die 40, hättest also etwa 325,- Euro netto gewonnen - hättest  |
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GL bro! I didnt see your challenge until now and whats funny about it - First thing I saw was todays Bayern pick and minutes before that I saw they were still 1-0 behind. Way to go but I can already smell the Million! ευχαριστώ, way to go indeed #8 l Football l CUPGER l Bochum vs Bayern l Bayern X2 l 1,03 l 119,56 l Betago
WONThis was pretty close and probably a poor choice. Bochum was in front until 83rd minute. Better to stick with home teams in the end, cup matches and away teams are recipe for disaster  Bank: 123,15 Euro W-L: 8-0 Average odds: 1,03 #9 l Volleyball l GER1 l BR Volleys - Eltmann l BR Volleys ML l 1,03 l 123,15 l Bet365 BR Volleys are pretty solid side in Germany, always among Top3 in recent years. Eltmann promoted this season and managed to get their first win of the season in the last round in convincing fashion with 3-0 sets. Nevertheless there is always huge quality difference between well established top teams and freshly promoted teams in these leagues. Eltmann can maybe snatch a set, but that should be it. |
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Bitcointalk profile link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1025255Current amount of posts (including this one): 1497 Amount of merit EARNED in the last 120 days: 32 SegWit BTC Address for Payouts: bc1qnt5jxa8us8pn75u2wyl93y9fxyjus2yms2c9fm Will update signature, if accepted. Updated. |
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Ich blicke da gar nicht mehr durch, was die alles machen und was viel wichtiger ist, welche Ziele sie eigentlich damit verfolgen....
Das geht mir bei vielen Projekten so Es gibt viele Projekte, die sehr solide arbeiten und am Fortschritt feilen, aber mMn ist das alles vergebene Liebesmüh auf lange Sicht - für diese Projekte, nicht für den technologischen Fortschritt generell. Wenn man mal zwischen den Zeilen liest, dann wird kein big player jemals eines dieser Ökosysteme mit der Kneifzange anfassen, was wiederum dazu führt, dass kleinere player dieses auch nicht tun werden, da sie am Tropf der big player hängen. Nach den Worten von Xi Jinping sind die ganzen China-Projekte wie NEO, ONT, QTUM etc. gepumpt, was einerseits durch Trader initiiert wurde, aber andererseits auch Leute auf den Plan gerufen hat, die tatsächlich denken, dass die NEO's dieser Welt davon langfristig profitieren. Im Leben nicht wird China eines dieser Projekte "adoptieren" und es groß machen. Die werden ihre eigene Lösung entwickeln, die sie kontrollieren, und nicht irgendwelche Privatleute reich machen. Ein anderes Projekt, von dem ich eine sehr hohe Meinung habe, ist Komodo. Ich verfolge Komodo so nebenbei, u.a. weil Acura3600 uns hier immer so schön auf dem Laufenden hält, und das ist wirklich grundsolide, was die machen, aber ich sehe überhaupt nicht, dass das alles mal in größerem Stil Anwendung findet. Deshalb halte ich auch keine Komodo (mehr), weil mir einfach der Glaube fehlt, dass Komodo ausser den üblichen Wellenbewegungen je nach Bären- oder Bullenmarkt hier signifikanten, langfristigen Erfolg haben wird. Noch schlimmer sieht es für diese ganzen Nischen-Projekte aus, die aber unbedingt ihren eigenen Token haben müssen, mit dem der geneigte Benutzer dann auch noch bezahlen soll Mittlerweile wurde wohl schon jeder Schrott "auf die Blockchain" gebracht. "Ihr Token zu Immobilien", "Der Auto Besitz wird sich für immer ändern", "Versicherung für jedermann", "Weltweit erster Musik-Streaming-Service über die Blockchain!", meine Güte, was es nicht alles gibt Es ist nicht unnütz, was die abertausenden von Projekten tun, denn man muss vieles probieren, um auf den richtigen Weg zu kommen, aber zukunftsträchtig sehe ich vielleicht eine handvoll existierender Projekte. Die Zukunft und der große Durchbruch liegt aber eher in so Sachen wie z.B. Hyperledger. |
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#7 l Football l ENG1 l Liverpool vs Tottenham l lay 0-1 (@34) l 1,03 l 116,28 l Betfair
WONBank: 119,56 Euro W-L: 7-0 Average odds: 1,03 Nothing caught my attention yesterday, so better not to rush things. #8 l Football l CUPGER l Bochum vs Bayern l Bayern X2 l 1,03 l 119,56 l Betago Unless this is fixed, I can't see Bochum winning inside 90 minutes. They will give a good fight and probably score 1-2 goals, but Bayern is just Bayern. |
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#6 l Handball l SWE1 l Skanela vs Bodens l Skanela win l 1,02 l 114,00 l Expekt
WONBank: 116,28 Euro W-L: 6-0 Average odds: 1,03 #7 l Football l ENG1 l Liverpool vs Tottenham l lay 0-1 (@34) l 1,03 l 116,28 l Betfair |
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#5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets
WONBank: 114,00 Euro W-L: 5-0 Average odds: 1,03 #6 l Handball l SWE1 l Skanela vs Bodens l Skanela win l 1,02 l 114,00 l Expekt |
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What I noticed was that the liquidity on Orbit is 60% higher than at Betfair (I am sure you noticed it too), therefore the guys behind Orbit probably bring their own liquidity, hence the agreement with Betfair to be able to offer such brokerage service. So in short, they probably don't like winners.
Can I ask how did you notice it? Where do you see these numbers exactly? Are you referring to the numbers showing in the "Matched" numbers for each event? This is all from BetFair, not from Orbit, and I doubt Orbit has more liquidity than BetFair which is super huge. Can you please explain how do you assume all that? Sorry for late reply. Yes I am pretty sure Orbit has more liquidity than Betfair, just make a test, first go to Orbit website without logging in, then login and you will notice more liquidity. It's simple, use a VPN if you are in a restricted location, and go to Betfair.com (exchange section), and just compare the liquidity. There is a thread about it on SBR > https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3510326-orbitx-where-cash-out-function.html#post28227759Thanks for sharing it. Maybe the 2444 is AUD which is equivalent to 1400ish EUR? There is no currency in the screenshot next to the 2444. Sorry for bumping this thread, but of course Orbit and all those other "powered by Betfair" exchanges have higher liquidity than Betfair themselves. This is due to their business model, which is very risky and i wouldn't advise anyone to keep more money than needed on these exchanges and make regular withdrawals if necessary. |
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So you do say that you would exclude out womens basketball out of your selections?
No. In general I would be careful with low odds in Basketball, unless you know your stuff. If I had to touch low odds in Basketball without deeper knowledge about the teams and league, I would look for home teams in womens Basketball in smallish leagues. |
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Looks like one team already layed an egg  Those short odds in Basketball are not worth it anyway imo, unless you really know those teams and have some information about injuries, motivation etc. Every now and then a team has a streaky shooting day, where they basically can't miss and the other team has an off-day. Nothing to do about that then. I would only thouch those kind of odds in womens Basketball (and for home teams). |
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#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair
WONBank: 109,57 Euro W-L: 4-0 Average odds: 1,02 #5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets #1 and #2 ranked teams at home against unranked teams. Handicap for both over -30. Since both games start nearly at the same time and Leonbets has highest odds for both (some bookies don't even offer ML) one can parlay these two, which I will do. Can't see any upset here, though miracles happen from time to time in College Football |
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#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt
WONBank: 107,10 Euro W-L: 3-0 Average odds: 1,02 #4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair Over 0,5 is always a bit tricky, sometimes even the most overish games on paper finish 0-0 out of the blue. Dordrecht is conceding a lot this season and Graafschap is huge favourite for this match sitting only at around 1,30ish. Graafschap’s last home match already finished with a scoreless draw, so I hope this rather unusual scoreline for NED2 in general won’t happen two times in a row in the same stadium. |
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Good post @kworrom There seems to be a few common themes in these 1.01-1.05 favorites. Lots of women's sports. Lots of teams who have an economic advantage, a disproportionate amount of money to spend compared to others in their domestic league (for example Real Madrid and Barcelona playing in the Liga ACB). Lots of national competitions where I guess certain countries also have an economic advantage or cultural advantage in developing their program over others.
My bold statement is, that a 1,05 in lets say Handball is way more likely to win than a 1,05 in football. The more room for error there is, the better. In Football one mistake can be crucial, in Handball not so much - you concede a goal because of some mistake, but it doesn't have that much impact, because there is around 50-60 goals scored. Even more so in a sport like Volleyball. You can go on a mental walkabout for a long period of time, but you might still find yourself only down a set. It doesn't matter, if you lose the set 0-25, 10-25 or 23-25, it's still only 0-1 in sets, there is no extra point in beating the shit out of your opponent in one set. In women sports there is just huge differences regarding fitness, professionalism, mental aspects and whatever. If you take a look at EPL, every player is super fit, they are well coached, take care of their diet etc. The players from the smaller teams are just simply not that talented like players from Liverpool, ManCity, Tottenham. Now in the Womens Premier League on top to not being as talented, the girls from the smaller teams additionally are not as fit, well coached etc. as the girls from the top teams, so the quality gap is much bigger. In non-mainstream women sports the gaps get even more big and the lower you go, the worse it gets. Also, it's interesting how odds for many of these events seem to be offered only by sportsbooks with seemingly bad reputations... it makes you wonder if they would even honor an underdog upset or call bad odds. Plus if you believe in the favorite-longshot bias idea ( https://www.sbo.net/horse-racing/favourite-longshot-bias/) then the odds on backing these underdogs should pay out much worse than the favorites in the long haul. Good read, though I have never been into horse racing. The process of setting the odds by starting with the favourites and well known participants and go on from there is the way to go of course. I was following and betting cycling for 15+ years until most of the value had gone due to only one (knowledgeable) bookmaker making their own odds and the rest just copying them. There is 160+ riders in any given cycling race, so could I tell the winning percentage of some scrub from a middle of the pack team ? No. Could I make rather good price predictions for the favourites ? Yes. Now from what I observed, in horse racing there is no such longshots as in cycling. In cycling you see riders priced 100+ all the time. If you have some good reason and/or information to play such longshot, it's not THAT important, if you get @400 or @450. There is a difference, if you get @5 or @6 for a favourite of course (talking longterm here). In the end it all comes down to value. Depending on your betting style and your mindset, each person has decide for themself what suits him best. I am more of an underdog bettor with my normal bets, without playing too insane odds. A friend of mine thinks that even @10 is kind of low But he has long droughts of losing bet after bet of course, which can wear you down mentally and this should be taken into consideration as well. In betting a lot of ways work, but in the end you can't win longterm without being able to spot valuable odds, be it 1,01 or 10,0. |
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Already looking forward to the shit-storm after losing the first bet Most people didn't even bother to read the opening post and/or just unloaded their signature campaign garbage posts, so I won't bother engaging in a discussion with them. This challenge is too hard and will only lead to frustration. The problem is with your staking strategy. Simply it is too greedy. Of course it is, I am aware of that and thats why this is just for fun. I bet you will not get past 100 wagers made. Prove me wrong. I would be surprised, if I even get to 50 Just because the market price on a sporting event is 1.02 doesn't mean that it literally has a 98% chance of happening like in a dice game with no house edge. There are so many unknowns. The odds can be skewed due to heavy bets on only one side. A player can get injured or have a hidden injury going into the match that gets aggravated. A player's equipment can fail catastrophically. The weather can randomly affect the outcome. A referee can make a wrong call. A coach can decide to rest impact players before or during the match due to looking ahead in schedule. Players can under perform, over perform, and get straight up lucky. What this challenge will remind you is that historical results don't guarantee future results, and the market can post odds that are quite off (so don't trust what the market says automatically, come with your own odds and then compare to the market). Crazy stuff happens. I know all this, I've seen it all. In my long betting career I have lost the most safe 1,01 bets and won insane gambles on 100+ odds. But till now I haven't had a losing year. What I would like to see you do is come up with and share your own odds for these 1.01-1.05 bets. Share how much value is in these in your opinion. Should that 1.02 be 1.01? 1.005? 1.0001? What goes into your probability assessment? It would make it more interesting if you were actually placing these bets, risking real money or BTC, and how this would affect your decision making. It would also be more interesting if you instead started with 1 million euros and attempted to use this strategy to reach 2 million euros (with the sportsbook or exchange betting limits in place). Internally, somewhat, you might already sense that this strategy is a dead end since you aren't risking anything, and this is a smart choice. In any case, good luck!
Most likely there is not much value in the odds I am playing, but this is not what it is about in the end. It's about picking winners, so I am not looking for valuable odds in first place opposed to what I do with my "normal" betting, which is not public. Feel free to open any kind of your own challenge - 1 million to 2 million or whatever - and I will curiously follow. So I wish everyone a happy following and hope you enjoy seeing me failing, which will happen 99,999999999999% |
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#2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair
WONBank: 103,98 Euro W-L: 2-0 Average odds: 1,02 #3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt H2H from the last years 8-0, 250-147 goals, always won with at least 10+, handicap for tomorrow is around that mark too. |
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Nicht wirklich IOTA bezogen, aber für einige vielleicht sogar interessanter als so manch tolle technische Entwicklung, die sich auf Papier geschrieben doch als schwere Kost herausstellt und dessen weitreichende Auswirkungen der Normalsterbliche nicht greifen kann. Nachdem in Norwegen die Einkommensverhältnisse eines jeden Bürgers öffentlich einsehbar sind, sind natürlich auch die Einkommensverhältnisse von IOTA Gründer David Sønstebø kein Geheimnis. Demzufolge hat David im letzten Jahr ca. $4,880,000 verdient und sein Gesamtvermögen beträgt ca. $33,300,000: https://www.dn.no/marked/david-sonstebo/kryptovaluta/iota/na-er-kryptogrunderen-david-sonstebo-30-god-for-300-millioner/2-1-687281 Dies machte ihn zum eifrigsten Steuerzahler in seiner Gemeinde:  Quelle: IOTA Discord Sein Gesamtvermögen iHv $33,300,000 bezieht sich jedoch auf sämtliche Vermögenswerte in seinem Besitz:  Quelle: IOTA Discord Ob es gut oder schlecht ist, das Vermögen seiner Bürger offenzulegen, darüber lässt sich sicherlich herrlich streiten. Worüber sich nicht streiten lässt, ist, dass es unangenehmen Besuch mit sich bringen kann, für den David allerdings keinen fuck übrig hat:  Quelle: IOTA Discord Natürlich zieht so ein Reichtum auch immer Neider an und so kam David nicht drumrum, sich bei Reddit rechtfertigen zu müssen: To be clear I have no moral or professional obligation whatsoever to disclose my personal finances or justify my decisions pertaining to my private investments. Keep in mind that there was no pre-mine or other unfair special allocations in IOTA, contrary to how all other crypto projects conduct themselves. Additionally, I have never received a cent from the donations to the IOTA Foundation. That being said, I have always strived to be one of the most transparent and forthcoming people in crypto due to just how riddled the crypto realm is with bullshit and obfuscation. I have been very candid about my iota holdings and the small liquidation I did in 2018 on numerous occasions.
IOTA goes back to 2015 when I put all of my resources (monetarily and time wise) into it. I sold a small portion to secure my future and pay the bills, as well as helping close family members get established. I also invested a portion of my iotas to acquire a start-up focused on accelerating the adoption of IOTA and other stakes in other companies, as I said was my plan back in 2015-2016 when asked what I would do if IOTA became worth a lot of money. I haven't touched my iotas since 2018. In fact, I have only bought since then during dips and I still hold roughly the same amount that I've always had. Hopefully this quenches any conspiracy theory about me selling major amounts of iotas, such as Vitalik did with his ether, or Charlie Lee with his Litecoins or X other person of virtually any other project.
All that being said: my private finances and affairs is not something anyone has the right to demand answers to. So any further queries will be ignored. Quelle: https://www.reddit.com/r/Iota/comments/dinjg5/david_earned_488m_last_year/f3x11mu/Um danach nochmal zu betonen, was IOTA so besonders macht und was der Kryptomarkt im Allgemeinen zu erwarten respektive befürchten hat: True, but those people need to understand that IOTA didn't pre-mine, started at $500 000, never engaged in any of these gimmicks or scams, refused to pay listing fees or fake volume. These decisions used to frustrate people, now years later it's paying off by putting IOTA in a unique category of authenticity. Always play the long game.
I am still very optimistic that the promise of DLT shows no sign of slowing down in terms of enthusiasm in the real world, but I've always been an outspoken critic of the cryptospace as a whole. It's just like the dotCom bubble, Nanotech bubble, social media bubble and soon AI bubble etc. 95% dies, the rest rises from the ashes like a phoenix. Quelle: https://www.reddit.com/r/Iota/comments/dinjg5/david_earned_488m_last_year/f3xg689/David ist sicherlich nicht die beliebeste Person in der IOTA-Welt, im Bitcointalk Forum und auch gerade hier im deutschen Bereich, aber trotzdem muss man sagen: Well played, Sir |
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#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets
WONBank: 102,00 Euro W-L: 1-0 Average odds: 1,02 #2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I'm not OP but i've seen people do well with low odds bet specifically odds below 1.10 and going all in every single time. Parlays imo are much harder than this because actual odds fall off quick since the outcomes increase when you put more matches. OP might focus on a few sports that's why he's giong to be very careful with his predictions and try not to force things out even if there's odds between 1.02~.
To have longterm success with low odds, you have to be very experienced. Most very low odds don’t carry any value, but there is low odds that have very much value, but those are mostly found in non-mainstream sports and leagues. This challenge is not about value betting though, it’s about picking 466 winners in a row. Thus value doesn’t matter that much with this challenge; I will still try to pick bets that are “safe” winners and have some value as well nevertheless. Lets see how far I can get |
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So lets start with the first bet. Format is like this: Bet# l Sport l League l Matchup l Pick l Odds l Stake l Bookmaker #1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets Lots of books don't even offer odds for home win, so Leonbets is pretty generous with a 1,02. Handicap is -22,5, so this should be a no-sweat home win |
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