Very strong action but as always the true strength is in the pullback occurring whenever that is.   Ideally price action should stay above the lows of 13th which could be a longer term show of support/resistance and then the 2 day is at 20k now.
  I wont say the 200 day average doest matter but for now its more important we get a change in direction for that longer term show of inertia and have it together with the 50 day MA ascending back upwards.  [today its flat and 50 week in decline still]  If both these gains keep happening beyond just a brief spike of energy we'll be way more bullish.   We'll build volume and repair the prior weakness in trading.

11 billion has to be compared to the average unit size held by people.   Yea large number but I dont consider a million beyond reason or reach for quite a few users and I bet quite a few are with 10x or 100x the basic tiers.   Take the top tier for premium and divide the total by that and its not a great deal if we weigh it vs the regular player and user base on the website.
  Obviously a ton of people are completely casual and wont buy this token, I myself for years used FBC purely off a browser cookie with BTC growing this much with retrospect it was a slight regret

11bn is 22k top tier holds or 440k 1st tier  holds, contrast some medium of those two to weigh supply and demand imo.   I did not consider the monthly price bet as good value this time and since market is more volatile, even less so now

Bets would  usually be placed via 3rd parties and its still not usually allowed.    In a very new sport it might not officially be covered but clearly its going to cause problems.   Almost always it could be taken as a form of fraud but I dont believe the law will always prosecute this 'crime' and its down to self governing sports bodies to reduce the practise.
  The motivation to do so is clear, if games are compromised it will reduce the possible sponsorship and even investment in teams that play that sport.

We just went 7 days from 50 day average upto the 200 day average, bit of a rocket launch that one.   No movement then kapow in 1 week of the year start.


This is all down to speculation of moves around inflation and in turn the Federal reserve, which makes it very iffy based.   I do still think we repeat this process but at least its a positive start for the year and ground work laid to move upwards and build some stairs in the graph.

Weekly bar look at BTC, we are at about the lows of September last year.  Its the underside of that prior action or range I think is a fair evaluation for BTC price action right now.  I think we will be trying to challenge that prior area but it wont be easy on first attempt.  My rough take is we must hold above 20k and confirm thats now ground level, then build from there.

I got a golden ticket today from the daily spins benefit of Fun tokens, cant complain about that I do have to wait 92 days for delivery on the Lambo  but Im a patient man so its ok.  Also a 5000 level prize on 20 or so spins which is alright.
   Play the sports bet is my preference, alot more consideration vs the risk event; can still be wrong not a win but more value for the bet I always figure.   Plus people can just be incorrect, imo its alot more likely to be good odds in potential.

In the most immediate sense you might be not too far from the truth there, the rising trend in BTC puts pressure in elements that are priced in it so FUN token could fall or in simple terms stay with parity to the dollar.   Further out I think BTC rising back to anywhere near to its peak will mean greater confidence levels then we have now, so that confidence likely helps FUN token and the projects its connected to so less risk premium means a higher price even in dollars.    If the BTC trend continues over months it will help FUN price in Satoshi to either stay neutral or even gain; this is generally true that its possible to outperform BTC itself while there is a sustained expansion in the crypto space.

12th Jan we have major data arrive and that might change the whole market mood.    At the same time chart wise we meet possible resistance, I dont know this is actually going to halt us at all but arriving here just in time to match news occuring is serendipitous for that whole speculative play.   We've expanded range anyway because we were stuck quite tightly in a range for like near 2 months.
YTD4hr

Its close in that we are closer to the bottom then the top where we were, in optimistic view we have surely shred most of what there was to lose coming 60k plus down to here appears to be a heck of alot.  We know a ton of hype and 'froth' type action occurs in BTC pricing so in that sense the bottom pricing is a ton of more solid content and we are for sure closer.  Everything I've seen prior cycles the bottom pricing is alot slower in its movements, people get bored but in a sedate way it can be considered bullish.  Its like a tortoise and the hare type race dynamic imo, people over react to both instances and gears that BTC can be in.
  Short take , BTC has alot of work and still time ahead of it before a proper full recovery imo

Well I have to classify the outlook for the moment as optimistic.   I drew these lines last year (thats ages right) and its pushing past with a 50 day average (in blue)also ascending also is a positive sign to include in assessment.   I do think 20k is more important then these levels but it cant be ignored that we've been this low for so long and are leaving it behind.  Would be nice if we built a base here and its been the groundwork for more positive price action.  Longer term its the 20k level and that 200 day in yellow that is a proper challenge but we can rise to that area

17k is just the very lowest bar, I'd argue 20k is more like the proper first rung on any ladder to consider a change in direction or proper move up.     I dont agree on most points above but I do like the idea you really dont take a price as a serious statement to discuss until its maintained that level or higher for 5 days or more.   Basically 5 days as a working week or the full week is a fairly low ask.
   The reason why you wait 5 days and also why the other points are wrong is that volatility exists.  We can reach any price in theory when weighing in volatility in a price, this is not a steady ship we're on its in fact all over the place and price will swing wild high and low inaccurately.    I will also argue that is why BTC will be used so long as it is useful to a global online audience.
  Why would you state inflation in all other assets but not Bitcoin, can we agree if its used the price goes up.   Disagree outside of that that you decided BTC is not useful to you personally so perhaps you cannot envisage anyone else using BTC.
  BTC is not a perfectly assured physical asset, it is speculative but it also will continue to be used so presuming only negative progression in price from here is not adding up.    I'll be waiting for anything better to be invented, of course society does benefit when new improved assets arrive especially when more efficient so price negative for one thing is often more then just inflation its the rebalance to greater efficiency elsewhere; right now all I see is very likely continued currency failure not improvements.   Society will suffer from that failure, anything more reliable will be positive imo.

I dont disagree with Schiff underlining there are real losses to working wages,  the Dollar lost alot of value compared to its prior peak values.   Its no longer usable as a saving instrument for most people, the largest entities on the planet still trade Dollar debt because of primary dealer advantages its an uneven game (china tried to illicitly double up their seats to access to that kind of buying) and the smallest players lose the most such as the common workers.
  The whole deal would have fallen over had it not been for technology making up some of the losses to large government + this over subsidy to finance generally die to the banks servicing of that large debt.   Theres no way Schiff is right on everything or anyone else, but its quite obvious we dont have a proper capitalist system anymore and he serves a purpose making that clear to more people then otherwise might notice I guess.
'

I like twitter for its brevity just as a news feed of stories, avoid comments on that site could be best unless you really find anyone you like.     12th Jan is CPI data and if it disappoints could upset this YTD recovery we've had small as it is.

Not going down is an upside imo and as the table above reflects its a fair take to say we are more probable to rise after such a rise.  The real limit is up by how much, this part could be some disappointment to many.   We may peak mid year, rising only to fall back on register at year end a small gain compared to what could have been and to me that volatility is what I'd expect more then any fairy tale recovery this year.

I dont think its back, some gambling type was still allowed so its all a bit grey to begin with.


Twitch is not a monopoly, its just got the first mover advantage which helps alot.  People like to go from one stream to another and they are often all on that website so it works to connect a common resource, the viewers.   Twitch can lose their advantage if they get slack but seems they do a fair amount to develop and progress the website.  I'm not in favor of censorship but some think its valid to do, I would guess just age restriction would be enough but maybe internet in general has a problem doing that especially so people want to remove gambling from sight.

Thats a giant area of land and also the amount of teams seems massive.  [Weather could be quite different in these places surely]  My first thought is it will allow more African  teams to progress because their level of play is so commonly high across the continent.  Does FIFA intend for the qualifying to be less stringent and the final event more of the decider increasing fairness perhaps.

Another 3 years of war and killing their own and other people is probably more important a problem then sending a team to kick a ball.    Closer then that I doubt Russia is allowed back to any normal play while continuing on, there is really no context for a fair game against that backdrop of death;  doesnt make much sense to me.

I'd say that whole question is best considered  relative to defence budgets and as part of NATO.  That question is if Ukraine is vital to containing the ongoing threat that Russia is to the free world.  Where is the money best placed with people willing and able to fight that threat or outside of conflict in the more theoretical defence spending.    As a percentage of fairly large defence spending the Ukraine money is not large, imo the money is well placed there though it cannot be without constant consideration.

Money is a label not the quality itself, by that I mean the price to anything can be inaccurate and not actually correct.   So saying money is the motivator I will say is incorrect, its one of many factors.  A large thing thats changed in recent years is people are rejecting the sometimes hours per day commute as part of their job, its a waste of time and effort. Ultimately time is money far more then many other things can be said to reliably be, so wasting time every day when its not required to do a job has been reconsidered by many workers and avoided where possible.  Obviously not everyone can change these details but certainly I see time, money, work and motivation has shifted some in recent years.

Lots of sideways within a range is how its going to go.  The speculation valid will be with what range does BTC travel, are we in a tight range under 20k or can we revive BTC price action all the way to 30k this year.   Even if we turn back from 30k and fall to the inverse side of the range bounds, I guess 30k isnt so negative as others will think BTC heads.    
  In short I believe both, positive and negative this year and we do not do too much more then consolidate prior action in order to build volume.  Especially lacking is volume in the teens but all of this is guess work till we become more established.

Just my own take but it is going to take a year to turn this momentum around in BTC.   The quite surprising thing about BTC and crypto generally is it has the inertia of a supertanker, we aint about to zoom back up.    A 3 point turn will take from now till next summer and imo to get full speed is multi year.   Somehow even measures like 200 week average are relevant in judgement, thats really massive.   Even when I look at oil or gold commodities I dont go past monthly bars, so BTC has a lead core lots of weight to its movements.  It makes me quite certain even a full 360 day lock for FUN is probably not going to be an inconvenience, it'll still leave time to sell at a higher price if you wish.    
   I do like lots of 180 and 90 day locks but also 360 as this is an old site.  I get people require capital on shorter term time frames,  I have avoided dealing short term since BTC home mining was a thing. I wish I'd kept that BTC multi year but its hard to do & who was to know, now we have a decade of history these wild swings but also continual positive very long term gains so I focus on that if I can.

Excellent idea for a topic but I'd have to be somewhat logical and say 50 for luck as I think luck is what you make of it.  I wasnt especially lucky this year so not 100 but I cant say I was somehow denied any great share of luck, so average and 50 is my honest answer I was as lucky as I deserve and no more :p    Opportunity wise I feel I could have made more of possible bets I could have placed so I'll stick to 50 and not be too negative on not winning big at anything I've lucky in prior years I cannot complain.