I agree with everything that you said in your post except the last line (above), and it is problematic to believe that the bitcoin price will "always recover," even if we know historically the BTC price has trended up, and there is no real evidence that the UP trend in bitcoin is going to stop, but it is still not guaranteed to go up. so it is inaccurate to use the term "always" whether you are merely thinking it in your mind or believing that it is actually going to happen that way and that is the reason why you might end up overly leveraging into bitcoin because you wrongly have those beliefs about bitcoin being "guaranteed" to go up..

Don't get me wrong.  Bitcoin is likely one of the best, if not the best investment currently available on a widespread basis and to everyone in the world, even though surely some people might not be in a financial and/or psychological position to be able to buy bitcoin, but bitcoin is still available to everyone and is likely a place that everyone should be putting some value and storing it for the longer term of 4-10 years or more.. but at the same time, the amount that anyone puts into bitcoin should be tempered by ongoing thinking that bitcoin is not guaranteed to go up.. even though it remains amongst the best of investments, if not the best investment and individuals are at the same time able to tailor the amount that they put into bitcoin to their own situations.

I personally believe your use of the term "perfect" is not very good, because striving for "perfection" may well contribute towards newbie BTC hodlers/accumulators getting too worked up in a mindset that considers trying to time the market or other kinds of strategies to lower costs per BTC, and generally speaking it is not necessary to be perfect, but instead to be directionally correct by ongoingly accumulating BTC and accumulating within the boundaries of their own situations.  So if someone is new to bitcoin and they are building up their BTC stash, they likely just need to ongoingly accumulate bitcoin, perhaps in a variety of ways that mostly focuses on DCA in the beginning without screwing up their own personal budget in terms of making sure that they still have enough to cover their various expenses and any emergencies that might end up happening in their lives.

Now the particulars are going to vary in terms of how many BTC does any person need to accumulate based on his her situation, and how long it might take to reach such goals.  The setting of more aggressive BTC accumulation targets might well run risks of screwing up finances, so it seems to me that the more aggressive that anyone might be in his/her BTC accumulation, then that person is going to likely need to study his/her financial cashflows and expenses a lot more closely than someone who takes a less aggressive stance.. and perhaps either one will work, and some people do not really want to spend a lot of time looking at or thinking about BTC and/or their finances, so in those kinds of cases, they could well end up taking a way less aggressive stance and still end up doing quite well as long as they include BTC reather than staying a no coiner.

The rest of us who already have bitcoin by definition are not no coiners, but we may well be low coiners, so sometimes we might want to consider whether we have enough BTC for our own particular situation, and if we are going to be trying to accumulate more BTC, then how do we go about doing that in terms of thinking about how much BTC we have already accumulated, and surely we will have some advantages to having had already accumulated BTC in terms of that information helping us in order to potentially refine our goals and to relook at our BTC accumulation progress from time to time and to consider if there might be ways that we might tweak our strategies to make them better, but still I am not going to say that we achieve perfection even if twe might be striving for something that is continuing to attempt to improve and to make sure that we are financially and psychologically comfortable with what we are doing and how we are doing it..

It seems that ongoing persistency may or may not achieve perfection, but it has decent chances of continuing to put a BTC accumulator/HODLer into a better place by having had participated in bitcoin rather than if s/he had chosen a path (purposefully or accidentally) of not participating in bitcoin.

Now you are in trouble, philip, since you are jinxing dee price of my (our) lil precious aka dee cornz.

Yeah, but to be fair, I did not really say governments because I hedged with poor people, so my answer was waffling. and I am not even sure how we can predict the various onboarding, but don't poor people frequently get screwed, and sure there will be some status quo rich people who also hold out a long time... so I am not even going to proclaim to have much if any clue in regards to the various hold out no coiners.. and yeah, maybe even low coiners will end up fairing better than those who stubbornly stay no coiners for way longer than what is in their best interests.. and by the way, it is likely in the best interest of everyone to get into bitcoin sooner rather than later, but surely more than 90% and even maybe more than 99% (which you disagree with my number) are way too whimpy and even so far failing/refusing to get their lil selfies some cornz in case it catches on.


For sure, I like the ideas contained within my post way better, including that i had made some points that I had not previously made, but then again, I am not going to claim that anyone is going to necessarily want to really read what I wrote a bit more closely rather than just getting some superficial ideas out of some of my attempted points.

Another thing is that I would not laugh at and/or denigrate the 200-week moving average because it is quite an amazing measurement of the average weekly price for 200-weeks (4 years), even if it has been challenged in the last year and a half and surely it is not guaranteed to continue to go up, as it has so far done in bitcoin's existence on this planet and in this world.... so yeah, I am going to continue to put a decent amount of weight upon the 200-week moving average as a mostly ongoingly good bottom indicator, perhaps until it is no longer such (which is not the case, so far).


One real, and the other a short-cut with little to no proof of work (or proof of brain).

hahahahaha

Go figure. ..and also think about it.. if some posts are trying to suggest themselves as being the works of the member as author.. but yeah, sure some members are trying to give little hints, but some other members who are reading those posts might actually be mislead into believing that such member really did write such post(s).


Of course, some guys claim that their average cost per BTC are in the double or in the lower triple digits, and I am merely claiming mine to be at $1k. or maybe I could say upper triple digits if I were to start to use $999 as my average cost per BTC.. so sometimes when someone is starting to become magnitudes rather than multiples in profits, then there might not be BIG differences between being 15x up or 25x up or 40x up... and yes, the price moves up to $60k, then that becomes 60x up.. So might there be ONLY small differences between being willing to shave off a few satoshis or even a few bitcoin at the various levels of profits... even though surely many of us likely feel better if we are shaving off some satoshis while the BTC price is in an overall upward trajectory rather than being in an overall downward trajectory.


That's a point that is clear as mud.   


Fair enough.  But it sometimes can be so much fun to bring up the past... and I was largely trying to compliment you, but maybe getting caught up in a bit of patronizing and "I told you so.".. but still remember the breathing in and out thing?

 

Congrats on your giving up the alcohol.. or maybe at least presumptively cutting back to less than 1 bottle of vodka per day. 

I drink sometimes, but I get a bit nervous about drinking too much.

Probably one of the greatest enemies of trading is lack of fear and thinking that you got if figured out, and that's probably why more than 90% traders either lose money or do not perform as well as a more straight forward DCA strategy.


DCA does not necessarily apply to shitcoins, and so many of us here likely hardly know what the fuck you are talking about if you are suggesting that you can apply similar kinds of DCA principles to various shitcoins as would be reasonably applied to bitcoin.. so part of the reason that we stick with talking about bitcoin in this thread is in order to attempt to stay focused, so if you want to talk about shitcoins or to make vague references to some gobble-dee-gook concept, you probably should be doing that in some other thread rather than this bitcoin thread.  Fuck shitcoins.

I don't really consider myself as much of a trader and of course, not a shitcoiner, even though I do admittedly hold some shitcoins.. which I hardly do anything with them except watch them lose value relative to bitcoin.. but they do not matter too much to me..  and as far as my "trading methodology" I consider it to be something of a kind of maintenance and an insurance policy (practice), so the ongoing and mostly consistent sell orders on the way up provide cash to buy back on the way down,  and sometimes will provide me with some float for HLB or maybe other kinds of cash needs that I might have from time to time. whether consumption or even sometimes various investments or even some moving of value around that might be more easily facilitated when I have some cash that comes available when the BTC price goes up and largely does not tend to easily run out absent the extreme downity that we experienced mid-2022... and even some scrambling that I felt necessary at various opints in mid-to-late 2022, but then I started to feel somewhat out of the woods once we got into early 2023.. and maybe even feeling more and more relieved as 2023 progressed, and then the FFI of June of 2022 just made a lot of icing on the cake as far as an unexpected windfall and any tightness that I had been previously practicing got put into much greater flexibility, and surely flexibility can cause sensations of freedom - even if maybe there still might be some balancing attempts even during periods of increased feelings of freedom. and maybe that's just how I tend to play those kinds of situations, so far in my sometimes figuring out ways to spend more money.. in ways that are sufficiently comfortable for my own ways of living.


I feel that I have experienced quite a bit of luck in life, and many times the luck can be explained by a kind of persistence in terms of being in the right place at the right time.  Don't get me wrong, I have some bad luck in some aspects of life too, so it is not all roses in these here parts.... but surely a lot of places in which things could have had been worse.


That's how mine usually goes.. kind of difficult to measure whether or not there has been progress, but then sometimes I am spending and buying and then sometimes some extra consumption opportunties come about, so I go through a bit of extra consumption, but it is still not really putting much of a dent in my stash, and maybe those kinds of spending more than I am adding is kind of what (where) I am supposed to be doing at this stage in my life.


No matter if we agree to the particulars of each other, we can likely get some senses that there is a certain amount of comfort to feel that we are generally ahead of the game, so we are letting the price come to us, rather than the other way around, and if we are mostly in that kind of a situation, we are likely empowered by the whole situation of having bitcoin in ways that we would not be empowered if we were leading a life without having had invested into bitcoin.

Oh, and by the way, even if we might mostly be ahead of the price and allowing the price come to us rather than our going to the price, we might not really be able to know with high degrees of confidence how long the BTC price might come in our direction and how far it might take us in one direction or another, so there likely may be some times in which we might be experiencing some dilemmas regarding what to do in regards to sizes of positions and maybe how much we might want to attempt to play some price movements that may or may not end up working out in our favor, but if we have some kinds of cushions, then why let the perfect become the enemy of the good.. and sometimes whatever happens is just "good enough" even if it might not be perfect.


Not going to blame SBF for everything, even though surely there may well have had been some peaks way lower than they should have had been and some dippenings BIGGER than they should have had been, but we really cannot know for sure on those kinds of things in regards to what happened or what should have (or could have) had happened.  I rather attempt to live in the "is" and surely, we have to attempt to prepare ourselves for things that might happen, even if they might continue to be things that we had not expected or that might end up going against us in the coming years... such as downity or sideways rather UP or even UP that ends up being way more whimpy (again) for reasons currently unknown.

Not on bitstamp, so it hardly matters unless you are wanting to make some kind of a point that goes beyond merely hyping how exchange variance exists.. which is a BIG whooptie-doo in and of itself.. and another thing bitstamp got to $35,968, so with all practicality it is nearly $36k. .but at the same time, it is not quite $36k.. so there is that, too.


There is something off about trying to make that comparison, and I am not even sure if it is worth it to waste time pointing out the differences..

should I take the bait?

think about it. .early the whole of 2015 was at the bottom, so the end of 2015 was coming out of the bottom.. .in our case today, we came out of the bottom of our low around  January/February 2023.. so yeah, it is not exactly the same, but we were in the coming out of the bottom and the uncertainties of whether we were out of the bottom around 10 months ago.. so maybe if you say that we are in a kind of late 2016 situation, then I might buy it.. at least late 2016 is a closer parallel, if that is what you are trying to compare something that is parrallel rather than something that is not quite parallel and not quite fitting...

O.k... I did it.

I responded, even though I did not want to... I was forced... woe is me..


That still could end up working out, even though you are starting from a seemingly questionable foundation.


Who is debating?  We are just discussening about whether we should debate or not? Maybe we should ask a friend?  A mutual friend?  Do we have a mutual friend?   Maybe someone (me, you or a neutral)  could propose a list of names with an odd number of names, and then we will strike names from the list until we reach a mutual friend.


Some members might have changed their mind or even adjusted some of their thinking on the topic at various points in time, and whether there was some kind of a conspiracy might be another story... but sure, you might be correct to hate on some members based on the way that they talked about that issue, but at the same time, some folks might still be torn on the topic, and surely there are more folks who are concerned about ways in which governments (and status quo powers that be are wanting to control us and even increase restrictions in various ways based on made up - or exaggerated situations). I am not claiming that I know, and surely I was not as adamantly against some of the virus related measures in the very beginning. even though surely we could see right from the start that some of the matters were not really adding up or making a lot of sense, including how heavily things were shut down right from the start... which surely is like a self-inflicted sabotage of the economy without seemingly good justification beyond assertions that "China is doing it" and hey, not that even people were claiming to follow china while at the same time having so many governments also caving to seemingly imposed and extraordinary "standards"


Does not hurt to be skeptical, but we still have various personal decisions including whether we are going to allocate any value to it, and some of us are already in bitcoin for a decently long time, and it is improving our lives through number go up technology.. but also we could diversify out of bitcoin if we believe there is some other and/or better place to hold value and at this time, there do seem to be some ways in which people can benefit from having bitcoin.. but yeah are the HODLers going to end up going to jail?  Maybe in some jurisdictions, but it is getting Bigger and BIGGER, so sure there could be various attacks on bitcoin and on individuals, but still as individuals we are still left with choices regarding whether we get into it if we have not already gotten in and also whether we get out if we are already in and various options in between.. I don't necessarily see any reason to consider that I am personally not going to be advantaged by bitcoin and that a lot of other people (including poor people) are going to be advantaged by bitcoin, including that it seems to be the case that we may well be in the middle of one of the greatest (if not the greatest) wealth transfers in history, and so I have some trouble buying theories that TPTB have as much of a hand in bitcoin as you seem to be implying.
 

Could be but seems a bit much of a fantasy to me.


that also could be, and would not necessarily be a bad thing under that kind of a framework.


That also does not add up Mr. Antisthenes - especially if some kind of a rogue government agent released bitcoin onto the world, then governments would have been more hip to it from the start and maybe even tried to attack bitcoin more aggressively in its first 5 years or so, but after about 5-8 years, bitcoin kind of spun out of control and way more world-wide.. so why did they not try to stamp out bitcoin in its first 5 years or so?

From my lame layman's perspective, your rogue govt. actor theory as you have currently presented it seems to have quite a few logical and/or factual holes.


Oh?  You are one of the good guys? who would have thunk?  Are you related to craig wright, but just on the bitcoin favoring side rather than the scam favoring side?  meaning that you supposedly have good intentions, but you just don't present well?  not that the twat Craig wright has good intentions, but surely he does not present well, even if he were to supposedly have good intentions.
 

 Evidence has already arisen that it is not so, because you have not explained why the government was not more aggressive in bitcoin's first 5-8 years of existence?  Do you want the answer?  The answer is because they hardly had any fucking clue about what bitcoin was and/or what it meant and/or its significance.  Sure some persons in the government and some agencies maybe did realize what bitcoin was about, but they did not have enough clout to muster up any kind of an attack upon bitcoin in those earlier years.. .. and furthermore, bitcoin ends up being a kind of sly roundabout way in which the money can be changed into a more honest system.. hence bitcoin came from the grassroots up, even if some smart folks were likely involved satoshi as an individual and/or satoshi as a group.. thank you satoshi.


I don't see any meaningful problem at this time, even though I see some of the various outlying "conspiracy" theories that could potentially be true but still, at this time, do not seem to have very high odds of being true.. in contrast to the case that bitcoin does happen to be a kind of miracle discovery (invention) that has the potential to resolve a lot of issues and/or at least to make the world a better place in a lot of regards as various fiat systems are likely going to continue to crash and bitcoin is going to continue to absorb a lot of the value, even though it could take 50 to 200 years to play out depending on a variety of different kinds of scenarios, including some probable ongoing and continued battles along the way..


 Seems fake.. but still that was a bit of an excited utterance coming from me.. like the first thing that came into my wee widdo mind during the Rorschach test that you were seeming to administer in my direction.


And bitcoin seems to be a kind of life raft, and sure there still might be other kinds of life rafts out there because there might be some folks who are able to weather various crashes in fiat systems but it seems better to have at least some feet into the bitcoin world, and personally I am not necessarily an advocate of putting everything into bitcoin, even though there is some fakeness in continuing to use some of the fiat systems.. but we only live so long, and so who does not appreciate some HLB, even if we might be attempting to stand up for various aspects of the bitcoin system too... I mean, if someone has more than a hundred bitcoin, then likely that person is in a pretty good place, and the amount of bitcoin needed seems to be going down and even seeming to approach the 62 bitcoin status in these days, even though there could be some lifestyle and geographical variance, too.

It looks like deliberations were pretty quick.  Around 4.5 hours from 3:15Pm to 7:45pm and they also had a kind of lunch break in there and during that time, too.

https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/sam-bankman-fried-trial-verdict-11-2-23/index.html

so really pretty quick deliberation before reaching their verdict....

and another thing is that sentencing is not until March 28, 2024, so there is nearly 5 months to wait for sentencing.. and whether he will receive close to the 115 years or not remains a question that will still need to be answered, and just to note that the sentencing will come less than a month prior to the halvening - maybe even around 2 weeks prior to the halvening if the halvening ends up coming more quickly than currently anticipated to be around the 3rd week of Apriil.

I would not necessarily recommend a strategy of just lump sum or just buying on dips for anyone who is new to bitcoin, but there could be times when such a strategy might be applied well for people who are in a position that they are able to consider that as an option...and surely sometimes people choose strategies that are not as good as they could be, and how much time that they have to attempt to think through some kind of a better strategy is going to vary... ..sometimes any of us could end up employing a strategy that we believe to be a good strategy, but then we might not realize that our strategy ends up kind of locking us into a kind of mindset that might not be as good for bitcoin as something that might involve consistent and ongong buying, even if their might also be some lump sum buying and some buying on dips in the mix of historical buys.  It can also take several years to develop a perspective on bitcoin for people who might not end up screwing up and panicking along the way...sometimes the screw ups might not be realized for several months or even sometimes years, it could take to realize that a different mindset and approach might have had worked out better.. which I think that having DCA as a central part of any strategy in the first year or two (at least) is likely going to be helpful in terms of putting the BTC HODLer/Accumulator/investor in a good state of mind towards their bitcoin and their ongoing BTC accumulation and perhaps considering their transition into BTC maintenance at some point in the future.

Yes, but it is still not necessary to figure out all aspects of your financial and psychological balance in advance, and newbie normies will come to bitcoin with their own pre-existing financial and psychological balance, and sometimes the strategy that is chosen can complement and/or work well to bring them to a better place after 3-4 years of investing in bitcoin and perhaps tweaking their strategy along the way.  Bitcoin is likely going to be a learning process for almost anyone who comes to it newly, and they can choose how much time to spend studying it, and they can also choose to get started as soon as possible, which is what I tend to recommend to almost everyone.  Get started right away, and adapt long the way, too.


I agree with almost everything that you are saying here, but still I don't believe that there is any need for figuring out what is "best" even though there can be quite a bit of advantage to getting some matters in order, but no need to let perfection delay any of us in the practice of just getting started, and being able to improve as we go, and sure maybe the plan will never become exactly perfect but when the plan is tailored to what a guy/gal believes to be his/her situation, then it is likely that it is a pretty good plan, but at the same time our situations are likely continuing to change in terms of our cashflow, our view of bitcoin as compared to other investments, our timeline, our risk tolerance our other investments, our time, skills and abilities to tweak our practices and or to employ other strategies, and so we may well need to adapt from time to time to make sure that our strategy is sufficiently tailored to what we believe our situation to be. .and sometimes we might even have some troubles assessing our own situation, so the passage of time involved in investing will likely help us to tweak our strategy in ways that are more customed to our own finances and psychology...

So even myself, i had more than 20 years investing in various kind of investments prior to bitcoin, but when I got into bitcoin, in 2013, I had several times that I felt like I was needing to adjust and reassess, and even there were times in which I let some of my emotions and/or some of my personality traits get in the middle of certain dynamics, and I had to learn from my experiences how to fix what I was doing so that I would not make similar mistakes in the future as I had made, and sometimes I did still make similar mistakes, but I would like to believe that I have gotten better, but I am not so confident that I am not going to continue to make mistakes from time to time.... and I don't even want to give myself a free pass, but there are sometimes also ONLY so many things that some of us want to change, even if we might identify some areas in which we might need to make some changes (or at least that changes could be made and could be beneficial).


Also, trading likely puts a person in the wrong kind of mentality in terms of really focusing on accumulating more bitcoin rather than fucking around trying to figure out which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term which may well be nearly impossible beyond a kind of coin flip. .and so why be gambling with investing money when the fact of the matter ongoing buying and even engaging in various techniques to strategize buying opportunities may well work out a lot better in terms of both maintaining a buying mentality and also knowing that whatever happens, you are stacking more bitcoin even if some of the sats might cost more than others.


You still seem to be assuming some kind of need to sell your BTC, and sure i have no problem with members who develop strategies to sell some of their BTC at various points as the BTC price rises, but stil does not necessarily mean that there is a need to consider any kind of a target BTC price as if that would be triggering some kind of larger level sales of BTC rather than just merely shaving off BTC from time to time, whether the price is at $100k or 5$50k or whatever, and probably at some point if BTC prices keep going up the $100k will end up being a floor rather than a ceiling.

My entry-level fuck you status chart may well not be exactly accurate but it projects $100k becoming a kind of floor price for bitcoin in late 2026 to early 2027, so it is not really that far away to be thinking about $100k as a point in which anyone should really be wanting to sell his/her coins unless s/he has largely reached some kind of a status in which s/he believes himself/her self to have more than a sufficient amount of coins and can therefore shave off BTC at any point that s/he wants to.. but not necessarily selling the whole stash but instead just selling some small amounts that might be needed from time to time..


This makes almost no sense:

"everything will be useless if we can't make this consistent."

I suppose when you say consistent you mean persistent.. to keep on buying BTC on a regular basis?  Or do you mean that the amount needs to be consistent?

Surely some people are going to be able to make a consistent amount, but even if they cannot, if they are regularly buying, even if their buy amounts vary and maybe even they might have some weeks in which they are not able to buy, but that still might "consistent enough."

Another thing is that maybe someone might tell themselves that: "no matter what between November 2023 and February 2025, I am going to buy at least $10 per week of bitcoin, " and then maybe that same person will have knowledge that some weeks s/he might be able to buy up to $100, but if cashflows are not good, the amount might go as low as $10.

Of course, if someone is brand new to bitcoin, s/he has to start his/her plan from right now and into the future, but if someone has already been ongoingly buying BTC for 1-2 years, then the person who had already been ongoingly buying BTC for 1-2 years will have some advantages in terms of both already having a ongoingly buying practice in place, but also will have information regarding how well such system has been working to maintain cash balances and also how many BTC had been accumulated during that time and how much was spent, but now that we are in this time, there might need to be some adjustments made based on where we are at right now, and not what had already happened or had not happened, so if someone was just sitting around and watching the BTC price and might have even had had a certain quantity of money that had been set aside for bitcoin and was planning to buy on the dip, when the BTC price dips to $20k, so then if the BTC price does not seem to be dipping, such person might need to consider whether s/he might need to adjust such plan, especially if s/he had not yet bought any BTC... versus the person who had been ongoingly buying BTC... seems to be in a better place.


it is mostly true that at least you need to figure out basics in regards to your budget in that you are not spending more than you have available... or that you are putting yourself into a position that you do not have any financial cushion, whether that is anticipating your cashflows and/or maintaining an emergency fund.  Actually both a cash cushion and an emergency fund should be considered as two different (but related) ideas that complement a persons ability to figure out how much s/he is able to invest into bitcoin whether that is aggressive or whimpy or some other amount that is mostly understood by the BTC investor/accumulator rather than random.

with such an upside asymmetric bet like bitcoin, it likely is not necessary to be in a mindset that attempts to maximize profits because bitcoin is going to end up giving options.. which surely is similar to the idea of profits, but not really the same as maximizing profits, but instead being directionally correct.. so if we are continuously accumulating bitcoin up until a point that we feel that we have enough, then we merely go into a kind of maintenance mode, and with each of those steps, it may or may not end up being maximum profits, but instead enough profits and enough options that your life has improved significantly by choosing and acting upon investing into bitcoin as compared to what it would have had been if you had not chosen to include bitcoin into your investment portfolio.


I doubt that those principles fit as well with the concept of crypto currency, because if you think about what is crypto currency, I have hardly any fucking clue about what it is.. but I know what bitcoin is and I don't really need to screw around with a bunch of shitcoins in order to create, follow and tweak from time to time my investment strategy with bitcoin.


Sure it is likely that bitcoin is going to continue to bring greater profits, but 1) there is no guarantee and 2) probably the best that you can do with someone who already has decided to invest in those other assets, which your list should have had included property too, probably amongst the best that you could do is to attempt to get them to add bitcoin into the mix of their assets rather than getting them to completely abandon those other assets, and sure then one of the questions would be how much to put into bitcoin and from which categories to take the investment.. not easy decisions. .but likely the best that you might be able to do is to get them to allocate a certain portion of their investment portfolio to bitcoin, and surely my own recommendation to newbies and even as a default starting point is to consider bitcoin to be 1% to 25% of the total portfolio, and they can adjust that later, but the starting point is pretty wide and also includes the idea that each of us is responsible for figuring out our own bitcoin allocation and most people are likely going to end up being better off by getting off of zero.. and figuring out something that they believe to be reasonable for them and their situation.


I agree that it can be quite involved to get someone started in bitcoin because in the beginning it might seem that they need a lot of hand-holding because frequently people do not necessarily know how to start an investment in a way that is not just lump summing in and then watching for the price to go up, which might work for some folks who get lucky, but it is not necessarily the correct approach, so their are a lot of people who don't really know how to invest and/or to manage their money in investment ways, and sure it might be good if they learn some things about bitcoin in particular too.. so it might take some people some time to either allocate their already existing investments into bitcoin or if they are new to investing to figure out a way to get started that makes sense and works on a kind of longer term time horizon.. even if there could also be some front loading (or lump summing) in the earlier stages.. it could still take  many years to build up a position and the earliest years are likely the most challenging to make sure that they figure out a comfortable path, and some of us who are already in bitcoin might be hesitant to involve ourselves in helping anyone into bitcoin who are outside of our more immediate family.


Just think about the various kinds of investors too.. There could be the kind of investor who lump sums and then just leaves the investment alone for 4 years or longer and then maybe reassesses after 4 years and at various points thereafter.  I do think that investor would be better to DCA after having had lump summed.. but it can cause a different dynamic if there might be ongoing investments for 4 years after having had lump summed in, and sure at various points there might be needs to reassess in terms of the size of the DCA and or whether to stop the DCA and just to let the investment ride or maybe stop the DCA and then just keep some sums for buying on dips from time to time. .. and surely those funds can come from ongoing cashflows since many folks may well be getting into BTC with an already existing cashflow, but they still might have some questions about whether to continue to DCA or to convert into something that might be buying on dips.


If you started buying bitcoin 2 years ago, right around the ATH, and if you bought around $100 per week, you would have invested right around $10,500, and you would have had accumulated right around 0.4181 BTC (which would be worth about $14,600 with current BTC prices).  So that would surely not be a bad place to be.. something like 39% in profits and not a bad amount of holdings.. but sure sometimes some of us might not be able to be consistent in how we are buying our BTC, but still somewhat consistency.. maybe not perfect consistency. but instead ongoing persistency could still have had put us into a pretty decent place right now, even if we started buying BTC at or around the most recent ATH from November 2021.

An overwhelming majority of early investors (those who just start) in bitcoin are  not going to learn how to send and receive prior to getting into bitcoin, and they are likely going to get price exposure through some third parties of some sort, so even though I personally believe that self-custody is important, it is not a prerequisite in terms of getting the fuck started..   Probably the most important thing to get started is just to make sure that you have enough cash, such as $10.. and then the second thing is to learn how to buy it and then store it, whether it is on exchange or otherwise, and then as you are perhaps figuring out your budget, such as if you can continue to buy $10 per week and/or to increase to higher amounts such as $100 per week, you can learn about some of the various nitty gritties, and even if someone gets started and starts to fairly aggressively DCA into bitcoin, such as $100 per week or higher or even 10% of his/her income or higher, then maybe it still might take several months before building up a sizable enough of an amount that it might be necessary to go into self-storage.. ..

 and sure those who decide to lump sum invest into bitcoin, such as 10% or more of their annual salary, then maybe those people might need to figure out self-storage at a much earlier stage.. and surely one of the things to learn is the differences between bitcoin and all the rest, but even that can take a long time to figure out, so I doubt that knowing that bitcoin is the best or figuring out why bitcoin is the best is any kind of prerequisite, either, even though surely if someone is distracted into diluting their bitcoin investment by fucking around with bitcoin, then they may well take themselves down various distraction paths, and it is on them to figure out those kinds of matters sooner rather than later, rather than becoming shitcoiners who are gambling, distracted, mislead and perhaps dumb in several ways.... so getting some kind of a focus on bitcoin is good.. but probably getting started is better.. and hopefully don't be buying too many shitcoins in the beginning.. no more than 10% at most, and at the same time, hopefully mostly focusing on figuring out bitcoin in order to realize that there is little to no need to continue to stay involved in shitcoins, if such people might have been inclined towards shitcoins.. and surely some people start out with more of a gambling mentality and perhaps more gullible towards the false and misleading shitcoin talking points, but still I doubt that those are reasons to suggest that they should not get started in bitcoin sooner rather than later...and I am not even suggesting to get started in shitcoins, even if some newbie normies are going to have more of those kinds of tendencies.

Your ways of choosing how to accumulate bitcoin is surely within your discretion, and some of the ways will work out better in terms of balancing finances and/or psychology.. and so it could take a bit of time for you to narrow down on what is best for yourself, since it seems that sometimes a person might not build a lot confidence in himself/herself in terms of finances and/or psychology until maybe after going through a whole cycle... yet of course, you are in the better position to make those kinds of assessments.


You are likely a bit distracted if you are trying to consider bitcoin in terms of "the crypto" market, and hopefully you are not too distracted (trying to be smarter than everyone else) by getting involved financially, time-wise and/or energy wise to be "studying" the shitcoin space.. and then believing that there is some kind of a "need" to assess the "crypto" market, rather than focusing on bitcoin first and then perhaps branching out from there... but hey, you are free to look at the matter however  you like, but if you are bring shitcoin talk into this thread by suggesting that bitcoin is somehow part of a larger "crypto" movement and/or market, you likely are going to get some backlash.


Fair enough.. a few seeming exaggerations in there, but I don't disagree with any of your overall points.


That seems a bit much, and also borders on the grounds of unbelievable.. and I am not referring to the amount, but instead that either someone would have 5 years of expenses in a bank account or even believe that would be a good practice.

Many financial experts talk about having 6 months available, and so sometimes people might go a bit above that and a bit below it, and surely if you have instability in terms of expenses or many family members and/or even a business and some uncertainties than it might be reasonable to hold up to a couple of years, but 5 years, just seems like a BIG waste and not even necessary, reasonable, prudent and/or practical for the vast majority of normal people, whether rich or poor.


Well hopefully you are putting your ideas into practice Jaycoinz.. especially since you mentioned that you had not been buying BTC, and surely some principles of investing are going to apply to other assets as well as bitcoin, but there are also some unique attributes of bitcoin that could cause you to go wrong if you are trying to consider bitcoin as just some other random investment when it happens to be a paradigm shifting phenomena that never previously existed, so in that regard, bitcoin becomes much BIGGER of a deal and a different category from other investments, even though any one investing into bitcoin may well still need to take similar kinds of risk management and cashflow precautions when investing in bitcoin as compared with other ways that s/he might invest, but the likely asymmetric nature of bitcoin as an investment may also contribute to some slightly different considerations too, in terms of the compellingness to at least put something into it rather than either sitting on the sidelines or even being way too overly whimipy about your BTC investment approach.

I don't consider $40k to be very BIG, especially since there is nothing really negating bitcoins pumpamentals to be significantly less than they were in early 2019 with a 3.5x pump in three months, and so bitcoin surely would be capable of performing within that kind of a range of a pump.. and sure it might not be exact in terms of timeline or in terms of quantity, but it still can be considered as something within the realm of reasonable possibilities, even if it might not have high odds of taking place (maybe less than 15%-ish odds)... so take something like $30k as the jumping off point?  that would be right around $100k, but $100k might be bat country.. maybe?  But whatever we can also use some other numbers since there might be some natural resistance points that even come prior to getting into the previous ATH which might be considered as no man's land between around $55k and $85k-ish.. give or take a few thousand on either or both ends.


Whoaza!!!!! Coming in swinging.

Are you doing that for effect?

It's not drama.. nor toxic..

It should more appropriately be considered as engaging with little to no tolerance for shitcoiners... with a few personal attacks thrown in here and there for good measure.

It's the troll box of bitcointalk.  Didn't you get the memo?

I am kind of sorry (but not sorry) to point this out, but it is so funny and ironic seeing you in these kinds of elated states of positivity in regards to our lil precious... especially given how much of a twat that you were back in the day with your shitcoin pumpening and your downity and your waves and your breathing bullshit.. but maybe our lord and savior aka king daddy,  kind of snapped you out of some of those framenings.. hahahahahahaha  Loving it!!!!. .even if I might be projecting a bit in my head.


Who?  Who? Who?

governments?

of course, a decent number of poor (and somewhat uneducated) people are going to get fucked with their lack of discretionary income and their difficulties in taking risk.. but they will still likely benefit from bitcoin being a much more fair system.. and it is more likely an indirect benefit rather than their getting into direct exposure and their getting in early. . so maybe they will get in last, even after their governments have already gotten in (on the sly).


Isn't the stimulus already happening through the fake war.. or the war that is being an excuse and maybe even encouraged and/or promoted, exaggerated and/or given a lot of attention as a world-wide crises in terms of justifying the throwing of "lots of money" at it?


Yeah.. thanks for selling at $35k?   You surely have been helpful (recently and historically) for "us" to be able to move MOAR UPpity.. and surely no one really should be complaining about having had made some sales at $35k.. and the price may or may not end up coming back down to these levels, while at the same time, I do have a bit of a hard time believing that sub $30k will not be visited again, but surely we should be able to recognize and appreciate that sometimes further dips are not going to end up playing out and there have been many times in bitcoin's history that certain prices and/or price zones get left behind forever, but it is not easy to know when that has happened with any kind of strong confidence until maybe several years after the fact..

I think that the earlier folks in bitcoin might well rely on exchanges to get bitcoin and to build their portfolio, and so maybe they could end up holding larger amounts of BTC on various exchanges that they use, and even if any of us continues in bitcoin, we still might have created systems in which we continue to hold a certain amount of our value in various exchanges.  Whether we are overdoing it might be another question that we may or may not realize, and even some folks have mentioned to me that if I had never held any value on exchanges and with third-parties, then I may well end up having more BTC today than I actually have in the real world scenario in which I use various exchanges, sometimes having more than 10 relations at a time, but maybe only using a few of them actively.

I personally believe that I would have likely had been a bit less aggressive with my holding of bitcoin if I were not using exchanges to attempt to ongoingly balance and manage some of the downside risk by selling on the way up and buying on the way down, but I do admit that sometimes it feels like spinning wheels, and sometimes when something does go wrong, it does end up costing quite a bit more than all of the profits that had been made.. but then once in a while there fat finger incidents that end up benefiting a person.. I had experienced several fat finger incidents, but none of them were even close to as profitable as the June 2022 Binance US incident.. and then I was put down a bit about that since I am claiming that it ONLY increased my BTC holdings by a couple or a few percentage points at most... but it still really feels BIG to have had happened all of a sudden and a preexisting system was in place (not even with the intent to capture such) that allowed for the benefiting from such a mistake.

I think that some guys are either scared out of their holdings are they end up being too whimpy in their BTC holdings and/or accumulation because they are keeping everything that they hold in some kind of a cold storage, and it also could be the case when guys are so preservative with their BTC, then they never really get comfortable in using their BTC, and sure, I don't really claim to have a lot of experiences using my BTC, but there are some cases in which I am attempting to use my BTC and interact with the world in bitcoin by having some BTC held in various kinds of hot wallet kinds of ways, which may or may not be third parties involved, but for example Blue Wallet, Phoenix and Breez.. are some ways to attempt to hold bitcoin in some kinds of self-sovereign ways while also serving as kinds of hot wallets.


which means?  Either you are being sarcastic with this post or did you accidentally contradict yourself?.. or maybe you are just saying that any dump is going to be a kind of fake dump.. since there assertions that dumps follow any large Microstrategy purchases, which may well be fantasies rather than any kind of reality since MSTR is just buying regularly and the BTC price has quite a bit of ups and downs, so we can frequently proclaim that there are dumps connected with their purchases, but such dumps would likely be difficult to avoid no matter what price they buy, especially in a consolidation market (which may largely be most of the 2023 descriptive), or maybe in a downwardly sloping BTC market, which would be almost the whole of 2022.

And, in regards to the likely pending ETF approval, there could be a short pump and then a dump and then a later more sustainable UPpity, but even I hate to get too caught up in a kind of expectation of what bitcoin might do, and we might suggest that some claims are that the BTC price had been so greatly suppressed throughout about May 2022 until now.. and still somewhat lingering until now (look at the 200 week moving average for a possible measure of such ongoing suppression claims) that it may well be way the fuck more healthy to get into some kind of a 40% to 80% above the 200-week moving average rather than our current BTC price levels that are currently floating 25%-ish  above  the 200-week moving average.. sure we might be in earlier stages of a bullrun anyhow, so there might not be any desires to really float around too much, but we could well try to be prepared for a variety of scenarios, including a kind of go straight up scenario, a kind of floating around at various points while having a few short-lived seeming violent (but ending up as kind of fake out) scenarios along the way.

I am not going to conceded that floating around a mere 25% above the 200-week moving average (which currently is at $28,463) is even acceptable as a balance towards what happened largely between May 2022 and even as recently as September/October in which we have been largely barely above the 200-week moving average (like less than 10%) and spending a lot of time below it.. Just does not seem normal to me.. even if it might become the "new normal" be cause there are no guarantees with bitcoin, including the 200-week moving average is not guaranteed to continue to go up, even though so far it has not failed in bitcoin's history.. including that it had gotten nearly as low as ONLY moving up around close to $10 per day.. and then now we are back up to moving up around greater than $20 per day,

..and from my own tentative thinking on the matter the amount that we are moving up per day in the 200-week moving average is a percentage and not just a number, but in terms of percentages, it is likely going to get to the point where even the $200 week moving average is moving up $100s and then $1,000s per day, which may well be difficult to grasp if some of us are considering our total cost per BTC in our holdings becomes less than the amount that the 200-week moving average is moving up every single day.. not guaranteed.. but surely seemingly a pretty strong hypothesis that the 200-week moving average is both going to continue to move up in value but will continue to increase the amount in which it moves up in value in the ways that I am saying..

even while we might not know the timeline for these progressions to play out since bitcoin is not so much a straight line like the 200-week moving average irons out to be a kind of straighter line than the actual BTC price.. it becomes a kind of stability within the unstable (the inevitably volatile, as I like to frequently proclaim).. and so many folks strive for proclaiming bitcoin as being stable, and they can go fuck off with that ideology that just does not exist in bitcoin current prices and/or the expectations of its future price performance, except perhaps when looking at something like the 200-week moving average, which sort of brings the "ought" to the "is".... and don't get me wrong.. it seems likely that bitcoin is going to become more and more stable and there won't be a choice since it is going to become harder and harder to move bitcoin's prices, but probably we are not going to get to such a state of BTC price stability until getting 5x to 10x or even higher than that of Gold's market cap (which would be bitcoin prices in the $2.5 milllion to $5 million) price arena. which could even happen in this cycle or the next cycle, but I am kind of thinking that it would take a bit longer than this or the next cycle.. but who really knows?

It seems to me that I had been saying something different from what you seem to be suggesting that I am saying, and I personally give few shits if the BTC price is at the top, bottom or wherever it is at, and my ongoing suggestion is for no coiners to get started asap, and sure anyone can look at charts and try to figure out if they should modify any strategy that they choose to take, but still a person who might have started to invest in BTC at the top of the market (at around $69k) in November 2021 would still likely be getting into profits right now with an ongoing buying of bitcoin strategy for the past two years.  Of course, the longer that they have been in bitcoin the better, but there is nothing wrong with someone who started buying $100 per week in BTC in the beginning of November 2021, and by now they would have had invested $10,500 and would have right around 0.4181 BTC (worth around $14,843 at current prices), which surely is not bad to have that amount of BTC after 2 years of buying $100 per week... and the only knowledge that such a person may have had needed to have was that they were in a position in which $100 per week was a reasonable amount for them to invest into bitcoin, and surely if the person needed to invest less, such a $10 per week, then that person would have a lot less bitcoin (1/10th the amount in each of the categories - which would be right about 0.04181 BTC (worth around $1,484.26 at current prices) with $1,050 invested) but still be in a decently good position based on the amount invested and the amount of bitcoin that had been accumulated over the past two years.

It seems to be a relatively small buy, and gosh they did seem to have some breaks in their buying during some parts of the most downward portions of the BTC price, and whether that was coincidence or not might be a matter of analysis.

So what is a bear market?  Of course, there are varying definitions but difficult to know when we are in them exactly, but it seems to me that we kind of felt that we were in a bear market between around May 2022 and December 2022 or January 2023.. and surely it can be hard to tell exactly when the bear market ended, but it seems by some where in early to mid 2023, several of us would have had been questioning whether we were coming out of the bear market and if the November 2022 $15,479 bottom was in, and the level of confidence should become quite a bit higher with the passage of time, even though maybe the latest test of $25k in September caused some folks to consider that it might be possible that the November 2022 bottom might not be in, and therefore questioning whether we were yet out of the bear market, and the extent to which any of that matters to an entity like MSTR seems to be shown through its ongoing buying actions...

It seems that those people, institutions and/or governments that continued to buy in the past 2-3 years are feeling quite good right now, and surely not all of them are yet out of the red, but probably a good number of ongoing buyers are out of the red, and stories might be more mixed for any of the people, institutions and/or governments that had been trying to trade or engage in other behaviors rather than just consistently buying bitcoin... to the extent that they might not feel that they have enough.. and surely many folks consider that MSTR probably have enough bitcoin, and so their seemingly overly aggressiveness may well cause some others (whether individuals, companies and/or governments) to second guess why their own BTC accumulation strategy might be either non-existent, on the low side such as less than 1-2%, when probably they could easily be 5% to 25%, and MSTR showing strategies that are seemingly closer to 100% or more (the way that they are using leverage), but on a personal basis, I still am sticking with my own recommendation that people should get off zero and they can exercise a pretty wide range of discretion and still be reasonable and in that regard from my point of view, 1% to 25% is more than a reasonable range for any beginner investor into BTC to contemplate as a starting BTC accumulation range.

That's pretty whimpy of you.  I am not really surprised, though. 

Historically (or in the past), several times, you have engaged in similar diverting and averting, so it is not like out of your play book to evade and avoid some shrapnel heading your way (or already head your way?)...


I have to admit that when the BTC price starts getting relatively close to the seemingly outside parameters of the "don't wake me up zone" I start to feel a wee bit of stirrenings, too...   thinking something like:  "Perhaps something is getting ready to start to about to maybe happen?"

I am not sure if I can agree to stop picking on your ideas and/or even exaggerating what you had said and/or done.. except maybe if you were to apologize then maybe I might consider the matter.. but no guarantees. (see below.. don't bother apologizing.  It is not going to work to stop me, anyhow)

Right around September/October 2022, you let us know that you sold some BTC at around $20k-ish.. At a subsequent time you claimed it was higher than $20k but whatever, but you were spending a lot of dissing BTC and promoting IBonds during that time frame, and then when BTC prices were around $16k-ish (November/December 2022) you were pumping (promoting) Ibonds in a seemingly even greater way as if they were the best next thing since sliced bread and talking about your BTC buy orders down around $12k, and maybe you were even suggesting that you were going to be decently well prepared for sub $10k, so even if you may have ended up doing something that was balanced in terms of your own BTC versus cash versus shitcoins versus IBonds holdings (I recognize that there may well be some personal limits on those crappy IBonds anyhow), your seemingly ongoing then recommendations were not very good generally applicable ideas.. even though there were a lot of others saying similar stuff around that same time.. I had relatives saying the same things right around that time, and it would have had been a great time to get into bitcoin, even though some of that crap (Ibonds) did have some attractive aspects for people who value their wealth in fiat. .and maybe who fail/refuse to appreciate having a decent amount of value in bitcoin (or at least some stake for the low coiners and no coiners who likely would benefit greatly by either getting the fuck off zero and/or being a bit more aggressive in their bitcoin allocations).

Sure you may well have never ended up over extending your lil selfie in terms of selling too many BTC (which surely is relative) because it does seem that in the past several years you have been focusing more upon building (and/or holding) bitcoin than you had done in your earlier BTC times (maybe prior to 2019 or so), but you still seem to have your own kinks and some of your own jaded fiat loving biases that might not even be a bad thing for a person of your age and also someone who has income that comes through mining bitcoin and your choices to mine shitcoins while acting as if it were the right thing to do (which is debatable rather than a for sure "good idea" even if you make more BTC/dollars from that approach rather than sticking with just bitcoin).

Upon further reflection and my typing out this response, I don't really want you to apologize.. I would rather keep using these kinds of conflicting ideas that people have (not ONLY uie-pooie) as talking points that show how sometimes the way that we talk about bitcoin can surely change depending on price momentum (and some people refer to as market sentiment), and I don't even intend any of my criticisms to be personally about you, and I kind of like that you argue some of the somewhat dumb (but commonly held) points.. and maybe it is even better that you actually believe some of them.. and sure you do have some good ideas and presentations of various on the ground and inside mining (and even life-advice) facts sometimes too, so I am not going to proclaim you as if you were a troll/shill/government agent or anything like that, even though sometimes it does seem possible that you might not really be talking from a freedom orientation because your status quo butt kissing nonsense does get pretty GRANDE from time to time... but even with that.. you do seem like you are probably a real person.. so that seems to be worth something, so long as the evidence is still tending to support those kinds of "real person" conclusions.