I have not updated it yet, but it was nearly spot on for the first 2weeks difficulty. However, considerably off on the dates.  This should give you an idea of what you're up against.

The sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah7ZJVoobFY7dDRGQk1kdmJmaUJwZENKZUdNejJlWEE&usp=sharing

Edit - power break point is @ $.15/watt - Note BTC reward does NOT include power coasts.

Steven – please interact with us, even if your lawyers say not to…

~Beer~

Did I miss something? Is steamboat gone? Someone else is running the show? I admit, I skipped several pages of rant-pitchFork-yourAnID10T-cryCry.

Please advise.

Honestly we seriously need a confirmation for refunds.   If by chance I gets some story about 'I did not receive your refund request' or 'you signature was invalid' and you have been moved to the back of the refund line, aka sorry you get chips - then I become the big ass black dude here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uA1CBHebCeo

Think about it, without a confirmation or public list, any member can claim they requested refund at anytime even if they didn't. This leaves steamboat open to any accusations from anyone here at anytime, and we as a group can not confirm support for steamboat or the claimant.   Its plain stupidity and/or laziness either way you think about it.  This can only result in serious group drama at the end - and the end is coming soon.

Steamboat - get on this and get on this fast - IMO.

PS - yes I know its a lot of work to make sure everyone gets confirmed, but its better than the alternative.

During the chip purchase phases of this adventure I remember seeing a routinely updated ‘current count’ of remaining chips per batch.  Followed by steamboat saying something along the lines of ‘all emails and PM’s have been replayed to…etc…’  I do not recall more than a 48hr laps of such updates.  (there may have been, but for sure not 8 days)

Currently we have no status update as to how many chips have been requested for a refund, how close we are to closing a batch for refund, OR EVEN IF OUR FUCKING REFUND REQUEST AND WALLET SIGNATURE WAS RECEIVED PROPERLY!! As you can tell I am growing impatient with the lack of communication...

Steamboat I'm begging you, don't make me go rouge on you.... just give us what you got now now.


PS. the sheet is looking overly optimistic for this first 2 week round
We are for sure at: 102,277,220 with ~808 blocks left. Sheet projected 111,933,018 (25mill+). From my past exp. of watching http://bitcoinwatch.com/ the current 'Next Difficulty' is what it will be 'next' if mining resumed down to the blue line for the rest of the 2 week round... In other words 111,933,018+ is almost a sure thing at this point.


The sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah7ZJVoobFY7dDRGQk1kdmJmaUJwZENKZUdNejJlWEE&usp=sharing

We would have to see some GH/watt numbers, BUT the competition has 'about to ship' complete* systems that are 28nm.  They claim 400GH@850watts - also the kicker ~ under $5k USD  

IMO 55nm is dead before it ships.

*complete - as in plug in power, ethernet, configure it via web interface and your done.

Unfortunately - if you wait you may not have the option to refund.  I would say the window is closing fast with so many other group buys fully refunded.  Our chip ‘shipment’ should be soon.  

In my drunken state last night I did (see link below).

Before you look at it, know that I respect your opinions if you believe difficulty will or will not increase at these rates.  The truth is that none of us know for sure. My heart tells me it won’t be this bad, but in my mind I expect it to be significantly worse.  Some things you should know about the sheet:
1)   It assumes a rolling 14 day window for difficulty jumps. In reality it will be shorter (makes our reward less. Eg bad for us)
2)   I used the BTC calculator http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/, BUT did not use power coast in my BTC results (again this makes our reward less. Eg bad for us)
3)   It assumes a steady difficulty delta increase of 5mill over previous 2 weeks (until the end where I increase it to 10mill).  This might be better approximated with a percentage.  This is probably the most questionable feature of the sheet.  However, it looks like we are on track to break the 25mill delta the sheet predicts for this next difficulty jump.
4)   I was fairly toasted last night, so if you find mathematical errors PM me and I will fix them ASAP.  I am fairly sure I did not get the dates perfect, but then again it’s a pall park estimate anyhow because a fixed 14 day window is not correct.

Please be kind to each other, we are all getting a fairly aggressive Colonoscopy here. (Especially steamboat)

The sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah7ZJVoobFY7dDRGQk1kdmJmaUJwZENKZUdNejJlWEE&usp=sharing
  

In my current drunken state I ran some profitability numbers - assuming chips are free....

<deleted>

~tears of defeat~

It’s not really a prediction.  If you look at the open source bitcoin protocol code ( I very very quickly looked it over), it states (something along the line of: )  that the next difficulty should rise/lower to a point that average time to solve a block is 10min.  This ‘next’ difficulty is set for the next 2048 blocks and is based off the average of the previous 2048 blocks (~2 weeks).  All miners must agree on this next difficulty or a fork in the block chain will occur.  So all anyone has to do is implement the open source bitcoin protocol ‘in code’ and analyze the last 2048 blocks vs time to get the next difficulty.  So http://bitcoinwatch.com/ is never ‘wrong’ or ‘off’ less it’s down or just malfunctioning is some odd way.  Quick rule of thumb is if you see block per hour over 6 then the difficulty is going up.  Another interesting site is https://blockchain.info/address/<PUT YOUR WALLET ADDER HERE>.  Put your wallet address in, trust me it’s safe (or pick a real address to test with).

PS - this last 2 weeks difficulty jump is over 20,000,000.  When I purchased in batch 1 the total difficulty of the network was less than 20,000,000 

PPS all this info is google'able' and is outside the scope of this tread ~sorry rest~
Also  http://bitcoinclock.com/  - our ROI time is finite.

^Sorry but you're late.

guestimating  not required:
http://bitcoinwatch.com/

I would also like to know how assembly refunds (if any) will be handled. At this point I am half tempted to have my boards assembled without chips. I would use the boards as wall art and a story queue of something that was almost epic; a community of strangers trusting/uniting to achieve something unprecedented.  


PS
86,252,232

~popcorn~

^^+1 as well

I would also like to explore the complete 'salvage' options.  1) What can we reclaim from the board assembly percent wise. 2) If possible the Avalon chip refund. 3) Can we somehow reinvest this into a future project?

I can't seem to find the thread but I thought Y I Fu was talking about 'processing refunds', but that might have just been Avalon Miners from Batch2-3.

I have much more to say but I will keep it short.

If Avalon will refund BTC I believe its our best option (~9K investor here).  Although, there are many details to work out - one of which is making sure steamboat, or any of us, don't get steam rolled.

Everyone should look at this investment/gamble as a simple 'how long until I get the raw BTC I invested back' vs if I had just sat on the BTC over time.  Removing the speculation of USD price of BTC + power to mine helps show how bad our investment really is. (I would love to see your calculations ... I'm sad) Also, for those 'long term thinkers' at ~3years we half the BTC return for mining a block, so I call that the hard cutoff.

As of now-now we have clearly missed the 'early ASIC' boat, the next power play is to get our hands on the most watt efficient hashing chips. Clearly 110nm is not it.  

<redacted>

Network    BTC/day   $/day    profit/day   payback (months)
Thash/sec           
 200      0.1008    $10.08    $9.95    0.92
 400      0.0504    $5.04     $4.91    1.87             <<-- We are almost here & going up quick
 600      0.0336    $3.36     $3.23    2.84
 800      0.0252    $2.52     $2.39    3.83
 1,000    0.0202    $2.02     $1.89    4.86
 2,000    0.0101    $1.01     $0.88    10.44
 4,000    0.0050    $0.50     $0.37    24.48          <<--- Hash rate growth will stop here
 6,000    0.0034    $0.34     $0.21    44.41          <<--just BEFORE THIS TIME block reward is halved to 12.5BTC
**so at this point we stop mining unless BTC is over 2x current value.
8,000    0.0025    $0.25     $0.12    74.89
 10,000   0.0020    $0.20     $0.07    127.31
 20,000   0.0010    $0.10     $(0.03)   
 40,000   0.0005    $0.05     $(0.08)   
 60,000   0.0003    $0.03     $(0.10)                   
 80,000   0.0003    $0.03     $(0.10)   
 100,000   0.0002    $0.02     $(0.11)                 <<-- Need quantum hashing or $10K BTC to get here

tltr - what 'batch' are the current orders at? As in if I ordered today what is the projected delivery date? 

LOL
~for a second I forgot how depressed I am about this massive jump in difficulty~

Good stuff 

On another note... is there word/news on any open boards working? I did some fast searches for 'Klondike' but only got ice cream bars (j/k).  I have NOT looked long/hard but there seems to be nothing in the way of WORKING prototypes for open design boards. Anyone have some news/links?