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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 04, 2014, 02:55:13 PM
Ummm can we set up an escrow and wager on this?  Will give reasonable odds.
22  Economy / Economics / Re: IRS opens huge BTC long on: April 04, 2014, 02:53:37 PM
Not my native language lol. I'll try again:

Lets say the capital gains taxation rate is 25%.

Scenario 1: I buy 10kUSD worth of BTC, later spending them getting 12kUSD worth of items. I need to pay 2k * .25 = 500 USD in cap.gains tax.

Scenario 2: I buy 10kUSD worth of BTC, spend them for 8kUSD of items. I have a 2k loss that that lessens my tax burden by 500 USD.

In essence, the government is long the total US BTC holdings multiplied by the effective capital gains taxation rate. BTC goes up, they get more money. BTC goes down, they get less money. It's the same exposure as a long BTC position.

At the same time, since the 20% appreciation/depreciation only shows as 15% in my pocket, the volatility has effectively been dampened by 25% due to the IRS sharing my exposure.

Because of this the government is hugely long BTC, this can't be bad for bitcoin.

Another aspect is that bitcoin is 25% less volatile for US users, perhaps making it more useful as currency.


Ok well using this logic, the US Government has a long position on every stock, option, futures/forwards contracts, commodity, bond, etc. 
23  Economy / Economics / Re: IRS opens huge BTC long on: April 03, 2014, 07:51:09 PM
Doesn't the recent IRS ruling mean the following:

* IRS is hugely exposed to BTC vola since they are providing all US BTC holders a built in vola dampener. Lots of people say the volatility is hindering bitcoins use as currency. Well there you go, problem solved.

* IRS effectively holds a long BTC position corresponding to (total US BTC holdings * fed.taxrate)

Seems the stars are getting into alignment Smiley Cheers guys!

EDIT: Doh! Just realized the vola dampener doesn't dampen prices denominated in BTC so argument no. 1 doesn't hold. What about no. 2?

EDIT2: D'oh ^ 2. or actually yes it does??? getting confused here.

The only long bitcoin position the government has is the bitcoin's that have been seized from silk road/gox/etc.  The volatility exposure scenario you speak of really makes no sense at all, they aren't writing option contracts bro.  I really dont know how you even came up with this.  Please feel free to elaborate...
24  Other / Off-topic / Re: fantasy football on: April 03, 2014, 05:23:31 PM
Cant you just do a paid league on Yahoo and avoid the issue of not having commissioners paying out?  You could use bitcoin and create a multi-sig escrow for your entire league if you are just using a free espn league.
25  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Most Cost Effective way to buy Bitcoins? on: April 03, 2014, 04:15:10 PM
try https://localbitcoins.com/ and pay with wire transfer
or search in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=53.0
there are a lot of sellers accept many payment options

Thanks I'll start there.

Local Bitcoins prices seem.... very inflated considering my wire transfer fees!

You should expect to pay a good sized premium using localbitcoins.  Unfortunately there are not many other options using paypal or based in the US.  You could use Coinbase but you need a bank account, paypal wont do it there.
26  Economy / Trading Discussion / Stock Trades on: April 03, 2014, 04:13:45 PM
For those of you who also play the stock market, whats on your radar at the moment?  DTV chart looks really nice, could run up 10% quick.  My favorite long term play MPEL, a Macau casino company, has been getting hammered the past couple weeks.  Bounced hard off a low of $35 up to $41 within 2 days, and now we are drifting back towards $38.  Im loading up at these levels.  As per Barron's article today MPEL's Q1 revs were up 29.2% YoY, analyst estimates for the quarter are indicating closer to 20% growth.  Also like LVS and MSG (this one is a long term play based on hidden assets).
27  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you realize ... on: April 02, 2014, 11:36:17 PM
They get to "control" the prices because bitcoin is dependant of other currencies. Thats why bitcoin would need to be used on more a daily basis, but the problem is that you need your computer around you. If people start putting fixed prices in btc, then it can really start to be independant. Btc value should be determined by other factors.

Its a free market.  The only determinant of bitcoins value could only ever be what someone is willing to pay for a bitcoin at any giving moment in time.  If someone was to 'fix' bitcoin's price, is would no longer be open and decentralized.
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Im in....more on: April 02, 2014, 11:28:53 PM
Uptrend starts today or tomorrow, from there to 10 000$

Where do you come up with this?  Bitcoin has been in a steady downtrend for 3 months now.  I love bitcoin and I hope it works, but the prices are still only where they are because of rampant speculation.  This market can still drop quite a bit before it starts heading back up again.
29  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is the community ready for a global trade ban of bitcoin? on: April 02, 2014, 11:25:32 PM
If this were to happen that would mean banks could not work with bitcoin companies.  Without a bank account it is quite difficult to do business.  This is why Coinbase is the only real option to buy bitcoin from in the US at the moment.  This would essentially end bitcoin as we know it.  
30  Economy / Services / Re: I will day-trade your bitcoins and get you 10% ROI per week. on: April 02, 2014, 11:06:19 PM
That's right. We've all seen how volatile the bitcoin market can be. And while longer-term gains can sometimes be a crapshoot - will it be up 50% or down 50% next month? Who knows! - and mining is too slow and too risky nowadays, it turns out that it's almost criminally easy to get small, quick gains over and over for long-term profit.

A bit about me. I heard about bitcoins years ago, but never really though to get into them until last March/April, when the first "big" bubble to $250/BTC burst and all the news outlets were talking about this strange new virtual currency.

While I was too unfamiliar with BTC to want to invest long term, I did watch several trading floors for a few days, and I noticed one thing that consistently happened: the price per BTC wavered around an invterval of anywhere from 5 to 20 percent back and forth all day. I figured, hey, if I could grab coins at $90, sell them at $93, then buy again at $90 and repeat over and over again all day, I could make a handsome profit. Doing that once gets you about 2% after commissions. Doing it 10 times a day for a week gets you more than double your investment.

Here's what my account looked like on my first day with CampBX, the main platform I use now:


$200 even, ready to trade. Here's what it was at the end of that first day:


Big deal, right? I made $24 bucks for a full day of work. But look at it percent-wise: $24 from a $200 investment. That's just over 10% - and in just one day. If I kept that pattern going, I figured, I could be rich by the summer.

You're not gonna get that kind of ROI from any stock, bond, or even other currency trading out there.

So I began day-trading. Grabbing those tiny gains multiple times day, being patient and steadfast. Sure, I made some mistakes. Okay, a lot of mistakes. But I learned. I learned how to spot the difference between the price falling back to its "normal", and the price falling to a new record low; I figured out how to tell when the price was going up just a few dollars or if it was the beginning of a new climb. I developed rules, like "never leave open buy orders when leaving for long periods of time" or deciding on how much I'd let it fall before I cut my losses. I developed a method.

I was having a pretty good success with it, but one day I was out to lunch with some of my co-workers who had also started to pay attention to Bitcoin around the same time, and they were talking about how they'd lost a bunch of money in the most recent downturn and how it was impossible to make money trading BTC. I told them I'd been able to get a good handle on it, and I offered to day-trade their coins in exchange for a small cut of the profits, just like any stock broker. They were hesitant until I showed them my account and trade history, then they were all for it. My method worked, and we're all a little richer now because of it. And I thought, hey, if I could do it for them - why couldn't I do it for everybody?

And as mentioned, I've refined my day-trading methods over the 9-ish months I've been doing it to where I now can guarantee a 10% gain in a week's worth of trading. So what am I offering you?

It's simple: You send me BTC, I day-trade with them, and you get them back plus 10% in a week. There are three ways I can invest your coins:

1) Short Term. You give me BTC, I give you BTC +10% in a week. Simple, quick, no-nonsense. This method is best for anyone who wants to test my abilities with a small amount before sending a bigger amount. Seriously, try it out with as little as .01 BTC. You'll get .011 back exactly a week later and you'll wonder why you ever doubted me.

2) Recurring. You send me a principle amount, I send you the 10% gain each week until you feel satisfied, then I send the principle back. Good for medium-sized investments, and for those who want a regular paycheck without having to worry or think about it.

3) Long Term. You send me the principle BTC and specify a timetable (1 month, 6 months, etc.); I go to work and give you the entire account back at the end of the period. The advantage with this method is that the 10% per week is compounding rather than simple: say for example you send me 1.0 BTC to invest for a month. The first week I get you 10% of 1.0, for a total of 1.1 BTC. The second week, I get you 10% of 1.1, for a total of 1.21 BTC - which is actually 11% of 1.0, the initial investment. The longer you invest, the more percentage per week you'll accrue.

By the way, doing Long Term for a year turns 1.0 BTC into 142 BTC. Just throwing that out there.

So, what's the catch, I hear you say? What's in it for me? Well it's like I said, you get 10% a week - but if I happen to earn more than that, I keep the rest. So if you send me 10 BTC and I have a good week and end up with 12 BTC, you get 11 BTC and I get 1. Good for you, good for me. Everybody wins!

The other side of this, though, is that it's guaranteed. I am so sure of my abilities at this point that if I for some reason come up short one week, I WILL COVER THE REMAINDER WITH MY OWN MONEY. You will always get 10%. No matter what. Every week. 10%. Period.

One more thing, I will only trade in BTC. You send me coins, I send you coins. I will not transfer USD or any other fiat currency.

So, if you're interested, send me an email at mark.moore1138[at]gmail.com, and we'll discuss the particulars. I don't have an exchange or a website set up cause I'm not a company or a business, I'm just a guy, hoping to make us both some money.

Peace.

You made $24 and now you think you have solved trading bitcoin?  Wow.
31  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How did we let this happen? on: April 02, 2014, 09:02:43 PM
Bubbles have been occurring and popping since speculation has existed.  Thats a very very long time.  It is nothing that is per se "allowed to happen."  Bubbles are just something that naturally occur as a result of human greed and fear.  Unless you can turn people into emotionless robots, you can not erase greed and fear.  We have seen how many major asset/credit bubbles in the past 15 years alone?
32  Other / Off-topic / Re: Learning to Code on: April 02, 2014, 08:57:33 PM
After a couple month's of considering taking it up, I decided to to start teaching myself how to code.  Possessing enough knowledge of html/css to keep a wordpress functional and looking slick is about the extent of my knowledge of web dev.  After doing a little research on what language would be best to start with, I found out that there is no consensus, so I am going with Ruby.  Starting off working through the CodeAcademy Ruby lessons.  From there I was thinking of either working through 'Learn Ruby the Hard Way' or 'Michael Hartl's Ruby on Rails tutorial'.  OneMonthRails looks interesting as well.  Any thoughts or suggestions on this journey Im about to embark on would be greatly appreciated.  For those of you here who have successfully taught themselves to code, please share any tips or ideas that you found helped your progress.

One month rails is a scam

Thats good to know, thanks, Ill stay away.  Like someone above mentioned I too feel a little late to the game but feel like that is not such a big deal with so many resources available to learn from.  To those on here that have learnt Ruby did you learn C first like rem rem 5th nov suggested?

I subbed and paid to one month rails the guy is some 19 year old douchebag who thinks he is bill gates. It really sucks and teaches u nothing u come out basically not knowing much.

Best is the hard way

I gave up on coding because I just don't have patience u need one year of practice

Yea I know it will take an extensive time commitment to pick it all up.  Played poker for a living for the last 7 years after dropping out my freshman year.  Got tired of poker, worked at a hedge fund for a bit as a trader.  They moved to Singapore, I moved to Macau and started playing poker again. Now that Im back in the states I feel like learning code will open up more doors than anything else career wise right now.  In a nice position where I can play poker a little bit here and there and still have plenty of time to learn.  Just gotta try not to get too frustrated along the way, think that will be where the difficulty lies.
33  Other / Off-topic / Re: Favorite porn star? on: April 02, 2014, 08:52:48 PM
How about the miss teen Colorado that made a porn for 50 bitcoins? Cheesy

Is this a true story?  If so we definitely need more details and a link?
34  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Yesterday I decided to become a Dogecoin millionare on: April 02, 2014, 06:41:19 PM
Yikes, what is 1million doge in USD?

Was about $6-700.

I am currently in a very good position financially.  Trying to get about 20% of my wealth out of fiat, Crypto and gold is what I have done so far.  Tempted to get a lot more G and S as it has many years of proven success.

Yea, sad to say but at the moment I would have to go with gold and silver instead of crypto.  Think this market still goes much lower from here, there is just no support and the IRS ruling really didnt help bitcoins cause here in the states which in turn hurts it globally.
35  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Yesterday I decided to become a Dogecoin millionare on: April 02, 2014, 06:07:20 PM
Yikes, what is 1million doge in USD?
36  Other / Off-topic / Re: Learning to Code on: April 02, 2014, 06:05:57 PM
After a couple month's of considering taking it up, I decided to to start teaching myself how to code.  Possessing enough knowledge of html/css to keep a wordpress functional and looking slick is about the extent of my knowledge of web dev.  After doing a little research on what language would be best to start with, I found out that there is no consensus, so I am going with Ruby.  Starting off working through the CodeAcademy Ruby lessons.  From there I was thinking of either working through 'Learn Ruby the Hard Way' or 'Michael Hartl's Ruby on Rails tutorial'.  OneMonthRails looks interesting as well.  Any thoughts or suggestions on this journey Im about to embark on would be greatly appreciated.  For those of you here who have successfully taught themselves to code, please share any tips or ideas that you found helped your progress.

One month rails is a scam

Thats good to know, thanks, Ill stay away.  Like someone above mentioned I too feel a little late to the game but feel like that is not such a big deal with so many resources available to learn from.  To those on here that have learnt Ruby did you learn C first like rem rem 5th nov suggested?
37  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin's 21million total coin supply hinders it immensely on: April 02, 2014, 06:02:10 PM
If bitcoin's had to be traded in whole coins, than yes this would be a huge problem.  But of course this is not the case.  Perhaps the conventional unit should be made the mBTC which would make a unit worth about .45 based on today's prices, but the number of coins is not a problem.
38  Other / Off-topic / Learning to Code on: April 02, 2014, 04:51:03 PM
After a couple month's of considering taking it up, I decided to to start teaching myself how to code.  Possessing enough knowledge of html/css to keep a wordpress functional and looking slick is about the extent of my knowledge of web dev.  After doing a little research on what language would be best to start with, I found out that there is no consensus, so I am going with Ruby.  Starting off working through the CodeAcademy Ruby lessons.  From there I was thinking of either working through 'Learn Ruby the Hard Way' or 'Michael Hartl's Ruby on Rails tutorial'.  OneMonthRails looks interesting as well.  Any thoughts or suggestions on this journey Im about to embark on would be greatly appreciated.  For those of you here who have successfully taught themselves to code, please share any tips or ideas that you found helped your progress.
39  Other / Off-topic / Re: What Song are you Listening To? on: April 02, 2014, 04:39:41 PM
Just came across an artist named James Barfod on my Spotify.  His album 'Salton Sea' is pretty amazing.  Good relaxing music to get some work done to.  Highly recommended.
40  Other / Off-topic / Re: Buy rainforest? on: April 02, 2014, 04:38:03 PM
Me too I will buy If u find

But not amazonian there are cannibals who will kill u
LOL! Never been there but I don't think they are much aggressive. Modern people have guns and they what? Spears?

I bet they are lethal with those spears though.  After years of hunting like such some of them dudes are probably chucking spears around like Randy Johnson throwing a fastball.
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