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Unfortunately, from a strictly "psychological" standpoint, this is very indicative of a market that is not near it's price bottom yet. There are still too many people that are optimistic enough to throw money at a ridiculous scheme like this. For " capitulation " to truly occur, there needs to be an atmosphere of utter negativity and despair towards BTC. When you stop seeing stunned sheep using terms like "HODL" and start cursing at the very mention of "BTC", it's not over. There will be more blood. Hopefully that entails Bitmain going belly up.
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This seems to be a highly probable scenario. Same Sh*t, different flies. Unfortunately there is no shortage of " HODL Monkeys " still jumping around to flock to this same old Cloud mining scheme with a different name. Clearly price lows are not in yet and there is not enough pain has been doled out. Oh well, back into the bunker...
Diff low side creeping up 1/2 % a day now. Looks like only a 6% drop in Diff Tuesday. Bitmain strikes again. |
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So weird the pre order is soo long on what is essentially old hardware. We could import these not duty free like the s9's we've been doing but feb. . for real?
Edit: Looks like they're shipping in seven days in from Chinese site. We could probably get these sooner.
Why would you want them? |
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Bitmain owed Their chip supplier 1 billion $ and only came up with $700, M still owe $300 M. They also have very large CAPX commitments to mining ops in USA and Canada. The ole IPO won't go so well with a negative balance sheet. Bitmain is "Scrambling".
Looks to be bottoming out. This am, looking at between -11.6% to -10.5%. Seems some of the cheap hardware is making it's way back onto the network in anticipation of this drop. Gonna be tough to get a double digit move this time I would guess. Bitcoin Difficulty: 5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty: 5,028,184,686,250 (-10.95%)
Adjust time: After 606 Blocks, About 4.8 days
Hashrate(?): 36,394,443,778 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 11.4 minutes
3 blocks: 34.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
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Whether it "reeks of desperation" or not, those are pretty attractive 30 day ROI's they are offering.
"Subject to immediate change." Daily maintenance is pretty prohibitive also. Looks pretty crummy to me. I wouldn't touch it. |
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I looked at their "carrot". It didn't seem attractive? The disclaimer alone was enough to get me to click "exit". The terms are only good for that very second basically. Profitability is very much in question. |
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Thanks, I got in through Firefox. just bypassed the security warning. I imagine the "real time" updates might be messing up the security certificate verification's. The spread is tightening between -12.8% and 10.5% with a marked downward bias. The trend is still firmly lower. I suppose it's possible to hit -13.00% or a bit lower on next jump.
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Anyone else seeing this warning on the Diff calculator site; https://diff.cryptothis.com/This site is not secure
This might mean that someone’s trying to fool you or steal any info you send to the server. You should close this site immediately.
Go to your Start page
Details
Haven't been able to open it for 2 days now. |
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[...]
two words
f*** bitmain
As luck would have it, they appear to be accommodating themselves on this request. |
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" Deal " ?? Delivered price at .058 per KWH is a 555 day pay off. @ .048 per KWH it's 437 days. How is that a deal?? Nope....keep trying Bitmain. Even without tarriffs that metric is horrible.
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I don't think that anyone would take a miner down that was profitable unless:
1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)
Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.
It's very common knowledge within the informed members of the community. They set up a location in WA under a separate corporate name and Canada as well. I know of at least two Commercial Scale mining operations of massive size that have been contacted by them. Yo can doubt all you want. It doesn't change facts. Are you not aware that Bitmain has been having problems with the Chinese Govt? Apparently not. I'll give you a little head start here, but you do the rest of your own investigating. To ease your "doubts". https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-confirms-new-texas-mining-facility |
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I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.
As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.
Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.
That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.
"If the price recovers quickly." Agreed, of course. Bitmain's problems these days extend well beyond "selling miners". By all accounts, Bitmain was mid-stream into moving and opening large mining capacity in the USA and Canada. Very costly play at the wrong time. Perfect storm for Bitmain. 1) Massive back log of legacy technology miners on the secondary market. 2) massive CAP EX expenditure in New Tech Chips 3) Huge price drop 3) BTC/BCH/BCH SV debacle 4) Plenty of new competition 5) Horrible 7NM tech launch. . I'm sure I've missed a few. 6) Terrible timing for their IPO. I suspect it's not by choice that Bitmain is taking a LOT of Hashing power off the Network. It's now a matter of corporate survival. No more " Have your cake and eat it too" for ole Bitmain. This is a GOOD thing! |
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You'll have to explain why it's not "transactionally viable", given that the network is literally a store of transactions.
Volatility can be blamed on boogeymen, since they're the only ones who profit from exploiting that kind of thing, and volatility prevents widespread utility. The problem with reduced utility is a self-fulfilling prophecy. People see a thing to be exploited, make it unstable, and there's no mass adoption. Because there's no mass adoption, it remains unstable and exploitable. It's only seen as "a store of value" because the ones who use it that way, by continuing to use it that way, prevent it from being used as intended.
Yes it is a store of transactions. But it is slow and archaic and incapable of competing with the "Kings" of the space. Paypal, Visa, Master Card etc. Once activity gets too voluminous and the network overwhelmed, and it doesn't take much. It slows to a crawl and Tx fees become prohibitive. They even get very unfair as we've all seen and prioritize preference and order of block verification by amount of payment. To your point of "volatility". I would disagree in part. In fairness, BTC's market cap and available supply make it susceptible to wild swings in price. This can happen on the "long" side and the "short side" of the market. It's long been a bane of newer technologies to suffer these influences. It's human nature to try and find someone or something to blame. It's just growing pains. a natural process of "price discovery". BTC had no business being valued at $19,000 just as it has no business being valued at $2,500.00. When scaling solutions become the norm, we will all cheer and jump for joy as the existing "shorts" in the market get their heads ripped off. Just as the "wrong longs" got their heads ripped off at the highs. Scaling to appropriate and competitive levels by today's standards means at least 1 million transactions per second capability. LN can do this once it's adopted and implemented (or something similar). This is what I mean by "transactionally viable". |
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Use and mass adoption don't come from mining. It comes from utility and "use cases" ( adoption as a payment option by Amazon) being a solution to existing problems. BTC is unable to scale, plain and simple. It is a brilliant and essential protocol, but has no ability to grow and scale. It hasn't changed one iota in many years. The internet achieved the same "stall" early on, and we are still "early on". If and when BTC becomes massively scaleable, then and only then will it be massively adopted. IE; Lightning Network or similar solutions the this dinosaur. Right now it is still just a store of value. Subject to the same fluctuations as any other store of value such as Gold or Silver. Once it becomes transactionally viable, you'll see a whole new world. Until then people will keep blaming boogie men, such as "short sellers and miners".
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Thanks for the update again Phil. Personally I believe that the Scrypt/Litecoin Diff will be more bouyant or subject to upmoves, as these units seem to be typically run by mid-size or semi-commercial miners that tend more to flip them on and off as profitability fluctuates? Would you agree with this? I suspect a LOT of L3's are sitting on racks just waiting to be plugged in. I also suspect the S-9 crowd are far more committed on floor and infrastructure costs, along with personnel and maintenance costs for typically larger scale ops. It just seems like the S-9 Diff will be a bit more stubborn on moves higher as the overstretched Commercial operations continue to get flushed out.
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Mining for the big boys and for those with friends in the right places will always be profitable. I have a friend with a mining farm in Venezuela where electric is under .01c per Kw/h. Yes under 1/10th of a penny per Kw/h that is not a typo. They can mine for days down there while everyone else struggles.
Until he gets caught correct? I suspect the penalty for mining BTC in Venezuela is a bit steep. Unless he's paying corrupt Govt officials which is also a dangerous game. From what I've read and heard, mining BTC in Venezuela could be hazardous to ones health. |
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visit www.btcminerzone.com- we use escrow through coingate on the site. We running a special on S9 and S15 and we ship and only then is crypto released to us. He wants to buy some miners, not get ripped off. You gonna sell him S9's at $150.00 per? Cuz that's what theyre going for these days WITH a PSU. |
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Yes....terrible...to be sure. Don't do it!!  |
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You hit the nail on the head here. As someone who has been doing this at an industrial level longer than most I have seen soooo many poorly designed and poorly ran datacenters pop up and die a horrible death shortly after. The only way to survive in this industry is to run very lean in all phases of operation at all times regardless of profits or how well the market is doing. What i have always done is ride the waves up by reinvesting and expanding when times are good so that when things are on the downturn you can survive by the sheer size of your operation. Most people getting into this game make a few major mistakes. Mistake 1 is build costs, the way to build is leaning on the secondary market. Electrical infrastructure has not changed much in the last 50 years, a transformer is a transformer. As an example, I picked up used 480/208 step down transformers for pennies on the dollar used while I watched other places pay tens of thousands of dollars for brand new equipment where im paying maybe 10% of what they are for used equipment that functions just as well. With over 20mw of power in use I have not had a single used transformer fail. Another thing I consider a mistake is buying PDUs new. These can easily run into the high hundreds per piece new, whereas I have over 3000 active PDUs and none of them cost over $100 thanks to the secondary market.
The second big mistake is in operational costs.
I know of 5mw datacenters with 20 technicians on staff and even with all that they still are lucky to keep a 90% uptime. I have done the exact opposite, I have a small team for a very large space but we have created efficient processes and monitoring tools in house to greatly augment the efficiency of our team. With an average of 12000 machines online I can claim (with proof) we keep an over 99% uptime with a staff of less than half a dozen. Only by keeping operational costs as low as possible and reinvesting as much as possible on the upswings can you survive here stateside. When you factor in insurance and taxes and tariffs and everything else, overall costs can stack up quickly and most people starting these datacenters with the dream of lining their own pockets will never have a sustainable business model. You survive by stacking and saving and being prepared for the volatile market conditions that are guaranteed to happen.
A...Freaking...MEN!! I am much smaller than that but I do ALL my own work. I sure as Hell don't Air Condition my units! I'm only 3MW but I have one employee and I don't hire anyone for anything that I can do myself and I can do most of it. Couldn't agree more. Lean and Mean and down and dirty. Who knows, even that may not be enough when it's all said and done but it at least gives you a fighting chance. Nice post. Thanks.
You must love this shit, because it would be much easier to just buy bitcoin and HODL.
How can you say that after what has just happened. There is a sea of people that do this that are wiped out, or down 80%. Miners have the option to hold, sell, hedge...trade. The flexibility is invaluable. This "HODL" thing needs to be put to rest. It's not viable in a Bear market. |
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If BTC stabilizes and chops around North of $3,500.00, I speculate we will see some marginal Hash Power come back online. I'm not expecting another whopper drop at the next jump. Of course with any new lows, that completely changes. We seem to be nearing a major shake out for many miners. That's why I think it will likely happen. Markets like to go on "seek and destroy" missions. Finding the pockets of the most pain and administering that without prejudice.
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