Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?

[philipma1957]

we are still pretty low maybe 36,000,000,000 gh or down 10% from last jump.

but the gear is out there it is not being destroyed and we don't quite know what the move being done is.

I know I can think of quite a few moves being attempted but  not sure which one it is.

the gray line is still very low  compare it to the spike over 55,000,000,000 back about a month.

[1713980005]

1713980005

[philipma1957]

Well yeah  if there is 57xxx real hash and we are down to 36xxx real hash

21xxx hash is off line.  the simple question is  who controls it?

One player (bitmain)

and if they do control all that  plus a good chunk of the hash online say 9xxx of the 36xxx online they could be lining up the old 51% attack

9 + 21 = 30  which may be ½ the network.

they may be posing to destroy btc  next year and pump bch to the motherfucking moon.

this war is coming and lots of guns are lining up.

this is what some think is going to happen I don't think so at all.

beware of the

fud below

holders beware all your coins could be forked and lifted out of your wallets legally under a correctly done attack

fud by the way

[userghost]

Mining for the big boys and for those with friends in the right places will always be profitable. I have a friend with a mining farm in Venezuela where electric is under .01c per Kw/h. Yes under 1/10th of a penny per Kw/h that is not a typo. They can mine for days down there while everyone else struggles.

[Norm MacDonald]

Mining for the big boys and for those with friends in the right places will always be profitable. I have a friend with a mining farm in Venezuela where electric is under .01c per Kw/h. Yes under 1/10th of a penny per Kw/h that is not a typo. They can mine for days down there while everyone else struggles.

Until he gets caught correct? I suspect the penalty for mining BTC in Venezuela is a bit steep. Unless he's paying corrupt Govt officials which is also a dangerous game. From what I've read and heard, mining BTC in Venezuela could be hazardous to ones health.

[philipma1957]

down in diff we go!

Current Pace:   86.8522%  (770 / 886.56 expected, 116.56 behind) close to one day behind
Current Difficulty:   5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 4911235687537 and 5168284870183
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.0201% and -8.4677%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 18, 2018 at 2:12 PM  (in 9d 3h 40m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 19, 2018 at 9:38 AM  (in 9d 23h 6m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 7h 26m 4s and 16d 2h 51m 51s

gray line has us under  35,000,000,000gh!

[TheYankeesWin!]

So 34,500,000,000 gh is lowest since June correct?

I got this on bitcoinwisdom

Jun 19 2018   5,077,499,034,879   2.77%   36,346,153,834 GH/s
Jun 05 2018   4,940,704,885,521   14.71%   35,366,943,171 GH/s
May 24 2018   4,306,949,573,981   3.94%   30,830,345,943 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Yes so if we continue to drift downwards we may average to 36-37,000,000,000 gh this drop followed by another drop to 33-34,000,000,000 gh

LTC dropped from hashrate of 323,782 gh  in may to 169,928 in dec

about 48 % drop  if btc does that it goes to 27-28,000,000,000 gh  maybe just past jan  say jan 3 or 4.

If 4 cent power is the floor  based on large farms working with power plants to handle excess power then

1)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9  with current diff of 5.646  which is 40,000,000,000 gh  coins at 3250

2)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with new diff of 5.106  which is  36,000,000,000 gh   coins at 2950

3)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with a new diff of 4.893 which is 34,500,000,000 gh coins at  2825

so we are at 1)  and 2) is pretty sure to come   3)  coming after 2 I don't know   but all show downtrend in prices  that the excess/leveler farms can handle.

So it is getting more and more likely this goes on just as it is.

yeah  some hosting companys  are going to go down but I see the trend still continuing.

If ltc is the lead indicator then  this goes on.

[Norm MacDonald]

Thanks for the update again Phil. Personally I believe that the Scrypt/Litecoin Diff will be more bouyant or subject to upmoves, as these units seem to be typically run by mid-size or semi-commercial miners that tend more to flip them on and off as profitability fluctuates? Would you agree with this? I suspect a LOT of L3's are sitting on racks just waiting to be plugged in. I also suspect the S-9 crowd are far more committed on floor and infrastructure costs, along with personnel and maintenance costs for typically larger scale ops. It just seems like the S-9 Diff will be a bit more stubborn on moves higher as the overstretched Commercial operations continue to get flushed out.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Last 30 days :  



High - 55 exahashesPerSecond  
Low  - 31 exahashesPerSecond

Last 7 days :



High - 41 exahashesPerSecond
Low  - 31 exahashesPerSecond

Current Block:   553411  
Current Diff:   5646403851534
Next Difficulty[EST]:    4950720795708 & 5101689291300
Next Difficulty Change[EST] -12.3208% and -9.6471%
Last Retarget:   December 3, 2018 at 11:46 AM
Next Retarget[EST]: December 18, 2018 at 11:58 PM  (in 7d 8h 34m 19s)

It Seems the slope continues.

[Exoskeleton]

I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.

As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.

Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.

That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.

[philipma1957]

I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.

As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.

Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.

That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.

well  4 cents and lower = not much fear

but  even 6 cent power with new gear is an issue.

[Norm MacDonald]

I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.

As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.

Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.

That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.

"If the price recovers quickly." Agreed, of course. Bitmain's problems these days extend well beyond "selling miners". By all accounts, Bitmain was mid-stream into moving and opening large mining capacity in the USA and Canada. Very costly play at the wrong time. Perfect storm for Bitmain. 1) Massive back log of legacy technology miners on the secondary market. 2) massive CAP EX expenditure in New Tech Chips 3) Huge price drop 3) BTC/BCH/BCH SV debacle 4) Plenty of new competition 5) Horrible 7NM tech launch. . I'm sure I've missed a few. 6) Terrible timing for their IPO. I suspect it's not by choice that Bitmain is taking a LOT of Hashing power off the Network. It's now a matter of corporate survival. No more " Have your cake and eat it too" for ole Bitmain. This is a GOOD thing!

[Exoskeleton]

"If the price recovers quickly." Agreed, of course. Bitmain's problems these days extend well beyond "selling miners". By all accounts, Bitmain was mid-stream into moving and opening large mining capacity in the USA and Canada. Very costly play at the wrong time. Perfect storm for Bitmain. 1) Massive back log of legacy technology miners on the secondary market. 2) massive CAP EX expenditure in New Tech Chips 3) Huge price drop 3) BTC/BCH/BCH SV debacle 4) Plenty of new competition 5) Horrible 7NM tech launch. . I'm sure I've missed a few. 6) Terrible timing for their IPO. I suspect it's not by choice that Bitmain is taking a LOT of Hashing power off the Network. It's now a matter of corporate survival. No more " Have your cake and eat it too" for ole Bitmain. This is a GOOD thing!

I don't think that anyone would take a miner down that was profitable unless:

1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)

Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.

[minefarmbuy]

This would be the best way to sell gear actually. NOT MINE AS A MANUFACTURER.

[philipma1957]

[...] Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.

articles about a massive setup in texas  were on the net.

[Norm MacDonald]

I don't think that anyone would take a miner down that was profitable unless:

1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)

Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.

It's very common knowledge within the informed members of the community. They set up a location in WA under a separate corporate name and Canada as well. I know of at least two Commercial Scale mining operations of massive size that have been contacted by them. Yo can doubt all you want. It doesn't change facts. Are you not aware that Bitmain has been having problems with the Chinese Govt? Apparently not. I'll give you a little head start here, but you do the rest of your own investigating. To ease your "doubts".

https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-confirms-new-texas-mining-facility

[Sundance_]

yup and alongside the texas links also mined with them in Labrador, Canada, see Google: https://www.greatnorthdata.com/

and they were definitely in on mining in Quebec even if this subject does keep them anonymous and article only suspects them https://www.forbes.com/sites/astanley/2018/10/01/the-future-of-bitcoin-mining-in-quebec-could-rest-on-mondays-parliamentary-elections/#6cf9a1d464f6

[Norm MacDonald]

Anyone else seeing this warning on the Diff calculator site;   https://diff.cryptothis.com/

This site is not secure

This might mean that someone’s trying to fool you or steal any info you send to the server. You should close this site immediately.

Go to your Start page
Details

Haven't been able to open it for 2 days now.

[philipma1957]

it wont open for me but I do not get the not secure warning on safari

this one works

Next difficulty retarget occurs at block 553650.0 (eta -683.5 sec): 4.95687451723e+12 / -12.2% [est.]

as does this one

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,050,629,692,196 (-10.55%)
Adjust time:   After 749 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?):   35,732,954,895 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.5 minutes
3 blocks: 34.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

gray line is current hash not average and it is dropping



9 month is interesting

[stompix]

Their certificate expired...probably.
I've opened it in a vm just to be sure, this is the actual situation:



We're in for another 10%, the market looks bleak, bitmain is starting a cloud mining service (topic got trashed lols).....
Not entirely the happy holiday picture, except for some guys running on solar panels that already recouped the investment