I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread. "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives. Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.
That's a pretty reasonable point of view. It's just that with this approach one could never profit from early investments in startups and unverified ideas. However, by that measure bitcoin has already achieved success. The bitcoin network currently mediates between 50 and 60 thousand transactions every day, transferring an estimated 70 million USD every day. As far as bootstrapped nascent currency experiments go, bitcoin should certainly fulfill many criteria for "success" already. |
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seems much too conservative to me as well, and it seems to be a lot of work to create an accurate probability chart like that. If i have a lot of spare time this summer and don't know what else to do i might give it a try but i doubt it. Regular charting seems to be much faster.
Only in Bitcoinland is a 10x price increase in one year labelled as "conservative"...  |
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What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
I don't have time to do the exercise, but I can muse about the most likely results: the multiples predicted by my method should presumably be relatively stable, or at least they should change slowly. From Jan to Apr 2013 the price went up 20x, whereas this model would say there was a 50% chance of a 70% increase in three months. It would say that the 20x increase in price was a 1% probability event. But then again, the increase in price didn't really last either, so even if it happened it quickly unhappened... But then again, you are asking about predicting the top of a bubble from the bottom of the valley, which is not the intention of the model - this model is intended to be more in the trend-department rather than the bubble prediction department. And in that respect, I think it is as good as any and better than most. |
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Here's a fresh set of forecasts - hopefully self-explanatory:   |
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They never applied for a bank license as they will never use your deposit to fractionalize your funds and loan them out. As they always stated they are a fiduciary financial services company licensed by MICI which is the commerce department which handles international financial and remittance license. The license allows them to accept, manage and transmit funds internationaly and act as an escrow service for exchanges and customers. The online platform allows users, exchanges and companies working in the Crypto realm to have a fiat account and interact seemlessly and without friction within the platform, solving the fiat issue plauging exchanges. In short they have with one license what you would need from 50 different states from the US. Still early in Panama they will answer more questions as they come online.
If you review everything they always corrected people that assumed that they will act as a bank.
Sent from my mobile, so may look better in my head!
Thank you for your reply, and for your patience! Congratulations on a great service, and I wish you much success. |
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Thank you for entertaining an old grinch, and thank you for your invitation - I will take a visit next time I'm in Panama. It is reassuring to see your business license and SWIFT registration. However, I have the impression that you either need a trust license or a bank permit, both issued by the "Superintendencia de Bancos de Panama", in order to be able to accept deposits from customers. Am I mistaken, or do you have such a license? Edit: Sorry if all my nosing around sounds negative, that's not my intention: I'm really a big fan and I think you provide a very important service that will be a kick-ass success, I'm just trying to get a better understanding of the business. |
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Great stuff!
Now please show your banking/trust license/permit!
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So you can't or you are afraid to tell a number of months. You are arguing with me because I don't believe that $50M will be invested into mining in 2 months, but can't give a specific time? Then what's the point of the argue? It's just a dead end. I gave you arguments you give me nothing. It's just because you say it so. If the money will be invested in 10 months you will tell me that you won the argument because it was a little more than 2 months while i have a strict deadline of 2 months you have no deadline. Be fair.
Don't get your panties in an uproar. I believe that the hashing power in question will be deployed within five months. You say you have given arguments, but I see nothing more than opinion. You haven't backed it up by any arguments. You're all like "I don't believe", "I don't think it will happen", "I find it hard to believe", etc. And that's fine, I have nothing against opinions, just don't try to misrepresent it as "fact" or "arguments". Anyway, I'm sick of you and you have trolled me all too well. From now on, you are ignored. |
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Do you honestly believe that there are $50M waiting to be invested in just 2 months in AM gen3 miners?
Yes. Although perhaps a little more than 2 months. Define more than 2 months! It can be 3 months or 10 months. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. |
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Do you honestly believe that there are $50M waiting to be invested in just 2 months in AM gen3 miners?
Yes. Although perhaps a little more than 2 months. |
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Judging by the history the in stock miners were always overpriced while pre-orders had a lower price. If we add up shipping, customs and maybe PSU then the difference from 0.84$/GH to 1$/GH isn't so big as it looks when comparing 5% with 25%. Now(i know some people will be pissed)...if we look at my GB then we see that pre-orders for a company that already has launched products aren't flying off the shelf even at 0.83$/GH. Even if AM sells in stock miners for 1$/GH or less i still find hard to believe that there are people/miners/investors that are ready to spend ~100M$ for mining equipment in 2-3 months. In my view most of the money went down the hole of the fails and scams that ran for the last year. Now there aren't simply enough money, not unless the BTC price goes up a lot and very fast.
Sounds like you are judging market conditions by the interest in your pre-order group-buy. I'm surprised your group-buy has any interest at all, since it sounds like a profoundly stupid idea to send $5 million to some guy on an internet forum in order to (maybe) receive an item in four months. |
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Will AM operations face complications due to the unstable regulatory environment in China? If so, how are these complications being mitigated?
IIRC, friedcat already stated multiple times something in the lines of "We're facing no problems. If we do, we're flexible and shift our operation elsewhere, no problem at all" As far as I remember, the previous comments were: 1) That Bitfountain would register on an island were there is a higher degree of "financial freedom" (but no confirmation of that actually having happened) 2) Made before it was clear that AM would need to exchange large sums into BTC to pay dividends 3) Made long before the recent bout of regulatory instability So while it may have been addressed earlier (much, much earlier, if memory serves), I believe it's a pertinent question. Since the storm has worsened, I'd really just like to hear once again that it's all under control. |
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Never said there is no demand. There is demand for sure. I don't argue that. I was just asking at what price do you see those chips being sold to miners when they are assembled? Until now nobody answered that even if i seem to get replied a lot.
In that case, I misunderstood you - my apologies. A while back, FC said the chips would be priced between $0.49 and $0.99 per GH. The price of a plug-in-ready miner is anyone's guess, depends who builds it. Assuming the chips are cost $0.5/GH, ie aout $5 each, then a 2TH box will come in at a cost-to-build price of around $1600, or $0.8/GH assuming it has some form of internal heatsinking/fan arrangement and they give you a PSU with it. That's to get someone to assemble the bits, the chips take away $1000 of the cost, so if they cost $3 to make (?) then AM could in theory get systems for $400 less, around $1200 for 'internal' us. A third part supplier w0uld want to make a margin of at least 25% on selling their box, so getting anything under $1/GH is pretty unlikely. 25% margin is pretty high for such a competitive market. Using your number of a $0.8/GH total build cost for the assembler, different margins would produce different prices: 5%: $0.84/GH 10%: $0.88/GH 15%: $0.92/GH 20%: $0.96/GH 25%: $1.00/GH So by adjusting your margin, you could easily get below $1.00/GH. And I imagine that the market is so competitive at the moment that margins should be on the low side. Anyway, it's difficult to say what final prices would be, depends a lot on what kind of miners are built: immersion cooling blades, standalone boxes, rack mountable, air-cooling, liquid-cooling, etc. A lot of different possible design choices can be made, each with their specific costs. |
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We wanted to submit a few followup questions, I'm proposing the following, does anyone have amendments or critique?
- When can we expect the financial report that's supposed to coincide with the next round of dividends?
- With the switch to selling chips, can we expect dividends to be paid out on are "more monthly" basis?
- What capacity of gen 3 hardware is supposed to be used for franchised mining?
- What are the current approximate terms of franchised mining, i.e. how is AM and the shareholders profiting from it?
- Are there any current plans of improving the PR; maybe bi-weekly short summaries or a PR person (board member?)? Are question sets like this an option, maybe once a month?
Will AM operations face complications due to the unstable regulatory environment in China? If so, how are these complications being mitigated? |
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Never said there is no demand. There is demand for sure. I don't argue that. I was just asking at what price do you see those chips being sold to miners when they are assembled? Until now nobody answered that even if i seem to get replied a lot.
In that case, I misunderstood you - my apologies. A while back, FC said the chips would be priced between $0.49 and $0.99 per GH. The price of a plug-in-ready miner is anyone's guess, depends who builds it. |
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Having chips but not mounted on boards and either deployed or sold means that 0 hashrate will go online. What are the buyers of the chips doing with the chips if nobody is buying them? Start deploying their massive farms?
AFAICT, you are arguing that there is no demand for these chips from miners. Yet, AM appears to have received the payment for them: this fact unambiguously proves that there is demand for these chips! Can you tell me again how you concluded that there is no demand? Or, in case I misunderstood the point you were trying to make, please repeat it more clearly. |
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I don't understand how can you think that we will have 109PH deployed by AM by the end of June. Who will invest so much money?
I don't think the lack of interest in your group-buy accurately reflects the market conditions faced by AM. I assume the chips are already paid for by large AM customers because: (1) the delivery dates suggests that the chips are already ordered (2) fabs are not known for giving generous credit lines (3) I don't believe AM has ~$21.8 million in spare cash lying around (109PH@$0.20/GH wafer cost) to build stock. So to answer the question of "who", suffice to say there appear to be large buyers out there. My group buy has nothing to do with it. Since you haven't red the post that i pointed to i will ask here too. What's the expected $/GH for this numbers? Assuming 1$/GH at system level, that would mean that 50PH=50M$. With the current exchange rate and with the current market i simply don't think that will happen. A lot of people in the Hardware forum are screaming that mining isn't worth anymore, but yet you expect 109M$ pouring in a matter of 2 months. I don't see that happen. My point is that it is largely irrelevant at this point from the point of view of AM: AM appears to have collected payments for the chips already, and so the buyers of the chips are the ones taking the risk. Anyway, my calculations show that this hardware will produce a (significant) positive return, and where there is positive return I believe there will be buyers! |
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I don't understand how can you think that we will have 109PH deployed by AM by the end of June. Who will invest so much money?
I don't think the lack of interest in your group-buy accurately reflects the market conditions faced by AM. I assume the chips are already paid for by large AM customers because: (1) the delivery dates suggests that the chips are already ordered (2) fabs are not known for giving generous credit lines (3) I don't believe AM has ~$21.8 million in spare cash lying around (109PH@$0.20/GH wafer cost) to build stock. So to answer the question of "who", suffice to say there appear to be large buyers out there. |
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Stay tuned for exciting news next week.
Anticlimactic :/ |
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