Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[joehal]

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread.  "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives.  Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

That's a pretty reasonable point of view. It's just that with this approach one could never profit from early investments in startups and unverified ideas.

[JorgeStolfi]

So taking part in discussion is no longer useful for him. He needs to sit back and wait.

I am not here to convince anyone, but when someone posts something that I think is wrong of course I may choose to reply.

[akujin]

Little spike on btc-e€  500€!!!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btceur

Maybe he thought he's buying at the usd market 

[rpietila]

You only need an extremely rough estimate of future value to make this a good investment as long as the estimate is several orders of magnitude above the current price.

The collective mind of the market obviously does not believe in that...

lol @ perfect market theory. There are endless examples of why that theory is as flawed as can be. The market is retarded (every market is, shallow markets more than others) and there lies the opportunity to buy assets for less than they're worth.

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....

...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.

[wachtwoord]

You only need an extremely rough estimate of future value to make this a good investment as long as the estimate is several orders of magnitude above the current price.

The collective mind of the market obviously does not believe in that...

lol @ perfect market theory. There are endless examples of why that theory is as flawed as can be. The market is retarded (every market is, shallow markets more than others) and there lies the opportunity to buy assets for less than they're worth.

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....

...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.

But short term there are timescales in which you'll lose money. This is where patience comes in. If you don't have patience for Bitcoin, good luck with any other investment ever.

[JorgeStolfi]

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

The original poster asked what I would consider proof of success.  Obviously that can only be empirical.

Logic can only change someone's expectations of success.  I could be argued out of my position, but I see big flaws in the supporter's arguments (like "the price will go to the moon because the supply is limited") which they refuse to acknowledge. Why should I change my expectations then?

[rpietila]

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....

...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.

But short term there are timescales in which you'll lose money. This is where patience comes in. If you don't have patience for Bitcoin, good luck with any other investment ever.

That's what I mean. Every holding is an investment. If you have any fiat in any bank, its value may also fluctuate. Only if you don't own absolutely anything, are you free of this. Holding cash for 2 years is impossible for 40% of people, there is a total loss no matter what  

I renounced silver (which I did for profession) in 2013-2-6 and urged all my readers, customers and investors to buy BTC. They are now sitting on about 4000% gains. And that is not even 2 years..

[wachtwoord]

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

The original poster asked what I would consider proof of success.  Obviously that can only be empirical.

Logic can only change someone's expectations of success.  I could be argued out of my position, but I see big flaws in the supporter's arguments (like "the price will go to the moon because the supply is limited") which they refuse to acknowledge. Why should I change my expectations then?

Growing demand + limited supply = growing prices
Extremely rapid deman growth + limited supply = extremely rapid price expansion

[bitfair]

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread.  "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives.  Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

That's a pretty reasonable point of view. It's just that with this approach one could never profit from early investments in startups and unverified ideas.

However, by that measure bitcoin has already achieved success. The bitcoin network currently mediates between 50 and 60 thousand transactions every day, transferring an estimated 70 million USD every day.

As far as bootstrapped nascent currency experiments go, bitcoin should certainly fulfill many criteria for "success" already.

[KFR]

@Jorge
I'm curious. You're an academic, and a scientist, I believe. So any theory you hold must be falsifiable in order to be viewed as credible.
Under what criteria would you entertain the idea that you might be wrong about bitcoin, or cryptocurrency in general?

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread.  "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives.  Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

Offline key/address generation and asymmetric crypto-signing of "digital checks" are undeniable wins that I am sure will be widely adopted eventually.  As for the rest of the bitcoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain in particular, I am more skeptical than ever.

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

So taking part in discussion is no longer useful for him. He needs to sit back and wait.

It's worse than that. A man who can't be persuaded by logic or reason is attempting to persuade others by logic or reason. That necessarily means the only people he could convince are people more open to logic and reason than he is himself. It's a hypocrisy that speaks more to the sorry state of academia than to anything else. These professors are not teaching students how to think. They are telling them WHAT to think.

This is exactly the point (emphasis mine).  

Well said BJA.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it".

Well, from December to April, especially from February, the Chinese were exponentially "un-getting it"; and that was swamping any growth outside China.  (They may have started "getting it" again now, we'll see...)

[Threebits]

what are the differences between gamble, venture investment and normal investment?

I DO think buying bitcoin was a gamble at the beginning stage,  but as  adoption is expanding with its innovative technology, I tend to upgrade from gamble to venture investment.

Will such venture investment succeed? Indeed I feel like something similar as odd gambling. Still I feel some differences there, but can not tell. Anyone gives more explanation?

[wachtwoord]

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it".

Well, from December to April, especially from February, the Chinese were exponentially "un-getting it"; and that was swamping any growth outside China.  (They may have started "getting it" again now, we'll see...)

This post alone clearly shows you don't get it at all

[BBmodBB]

Explanation

700 rally time!!! =) looking good!!!

[JorgeStolfi]

I just wrote:

The sleeping and eating patterns of the Chinese are relevant to understanding what will happen to the price, [ ... ]  Not as enlightening as dinosaurs, but infinitely more than any TA.

Then Huobi did this:

But @magicmexican had already posted this:

I rest my case. 

[Mythul]

Its so nice to be in a bull market. You can sleep and don't care and still make magical internet money !

[JorgeStolfi]

However, by that measure bitcoin has already achieved success. The bitcoin network currently mediates between 50 and 60 thousand transactions every day, transferring an estimated 70 million USD every day.
As far as bootstrapped nascent currency experiments go, bitcoin should certainly fulfill many criteria for "success" already.

Curioulsy the number of transactions per day and their total BTC volume have increased very little, or not at all, since September last year.  So, either commercial e-payments  are a small fraction of those numbers, or they are not increasing (and their USD volume is actually decreasing, since the BTC price has fallen considerably in that period).

[YogoH]

However, by that measure bitcoin has already achieved success. The bitcoin network currently mediates between 50 and 60 thousand transactions every day, transferring an estimated 70 million USD every day.
As far as bootstrapped nascent currency experiments go, bitcoin should certainly fulfill many criteria for "success" already.

Curioulsy the number of transactions per day and their total BTC volume have increased very little, or not at all, since September last year.  So, either commercial e-payments  are a small fraction of those numbers, or they are not increasing (and their USD volume is actually decreasing, since the BTC price has fallen considerably in that period).

The number of transactions increases in waves similar to the price function.  Also many transactions are now being done off the blockchain. I use coinbase app on my phone and when I go to the bar in my area they use coinbase merchant.  That transaction is never shown on the blockchain.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation