Over what time period??

I don't think this correlation is valid - maybe for a very short time period. My own long-term correlation studies (utilizing ALL the data) don't match up with this.

The issue with future potential hashrate competitors is kind of a tough one.

ASICMINER has a huge head start, and (should have) a huge bank account.

It would take a competitor of massive proportions to have the same amount of stroke the AM currently has with vendors.

Future hashrate predictions/competitors don't always pan out into a real competitor. Those are the two things to consider for the pro-ASICMINER side of the argument.

As for the competition, they could be successful if they can manage to execute on what they offer in a timely manner. Current competitors do not seem to be doing this.

$0.02

Ian

PMSed.

Hopefully variance. Either that or the data center girl is back!

I was aware that the first one shipped with no power brick.  I'm still waiting until I get some kind of word from BFL about the situation.  If we do need PSUs, I will run out and buy them or order them and get a good deal online if there's time.

EDIT: Looks like early orders will indeed be shipping without power bricks.  I'll start looking at PSU options.

My impression is that people are buying BTC purely so that they can move their money out of Gox, and that once withdrawn, those bitcoins are getting deposited straight into another exchange to be sold. Just as the price at Mt. Gox has been going up since this announcement (due to a glut of immovable USD), the price at Bitstamp has been going down (due to people's dry powder being trapped on Gox).

Man people in this forum are overly optimistic.

To me Gox suspending USD cash withdrawals is a bad thing.

Who's going to want to buy bitcoin when you can't even get your money out again. People buying to sell are only going to cause a large amount of arbitrage between the places where they're selling. It might raise the price a bit, but probably not that much.

May be a bug, we are still in beta.

What SO and browser are using you?

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So... the drop in effective hashrate could actually be the result of a DDOS on the ASICMINER node(s)?

It did conveniently stop after the dividend payout - it could be someone trying to manipulate the price, or one of the other pool operators.

Coincidence. I saw one earlier with 600+ transactions.

Regardless, there is no mechanism in BTC to selectively mine blocks. I.e., you can't mine a 100 transaction block more easily than you can mine a 1,000 transaction block with a given difficulty. This cannot be done by adjusting hashrate either. At a given difficulty, your probability for mining a block is fixed to a certain hashrate over a period of time. A lower hashrate will have a lower probability, and a higher hashrate will have a higher probability.

In short, hashrate and difficulty have nothing to do with the size of the block you mine.

Ian

I haven't looked into this too closely, but all/most of the recent blocks awarded to ASICMINER have a much lower transaction count than those awarded to other miners/pools. Is that a coincidence, is it a consequence of the hardware design, is it somehow indicative of the recent drop in hashrate?

I thinking to buy Ninja 650R 2013, any thoughts..

BMWs are the BMWs of the motorcycle world 

I'm on a Suzuki GS500F, looking to move up to a Yamaha FZ6 

Since we're taking stuff and running with it -- we're at 92.29 th/s!

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,4,8

Short term, I don't believe the difficulty increase to have a significant price effect. However, I think "low" dividends on Wednesday will cause a sell-off from more inexperienced "investors" who have done too little research.

There appear to be a good number of shareholders that are panic-prone and have little understanding of both investing and the company they have invested in. They will see lower dividends than they were led to expect [since hardware is out of stock], declare the whole thing a scam, then sell shares at discount prices because they believe the sky is falling down. The kind of "investor" prone to this kind of panic behavior is not the same kind of investor that closely follows network hash rate, so I think Wednesday's price movement will drown out anything we may see today.

or, it could be power issues, blade issues, data center issues, etc.  Why does everyone assume the drop is something positive?

i dont need a source.. we all know they are out of stock

This gives absolutely no explanation for the $400 figure.

Within the last year the number of transactions per day went from ~40k to ~60k (+50%), in the same time the usd/btc price went from ~6.5usd to ~110usd (+1692%). Stating these two values have "pretty much grown hand in hand" is a lie of epic proportions.

Wild theorizing on my part, take it with a truck load of salt: TX fees will not raise to several usd/tx even if the block size limit was not lifted. The reason is that a majority of all transactions will be relatively small sums and people will simply refuse to pay such high fees. Eventually average small time users would rather drop bitcoin and the network would be left exclusively to the movement of larger sums, this development would rather decrease the number of transactions than increase it.

Again, where does the 400 come from??