Bitcoin traditionally has bull markets after a halvening. The next halvening is in 2024. So a bull market might start in late 2024 or early 2025.
I think it's naive to expect that this bear market will be short. Especially since stock market is performing so poorly and global economy is not doing great - we already know that Bitcoin is not a safe haven but a risk asset.
Of course a miracle can happen and Bitcoin could do the unpredictable and suddenly moon out of nowhere. But it would be foolish to bet on that.
I would have though with a bad stock market people will go to BTC esp speculators, voltilitay is king tbh. |
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I am still not persuade that the 69K was the bull run, it reminds me more of the 2013 run up to 200$ then fall the run up later to 1K in late 2013.
it feels like the cycle is just longer .... and have been getting longer we are in a bull trap / short squeeze.
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I am increasingly of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.
There is no doubt about shady behavior of centralized exchanges where they sell fake coins to make profit but you can not claim that "most" of it is fake because suck fake sales can not be sustained. At some point the exchange runs out of coins to give users for withdrawals, specially during sideways market where majority of traders pull their coins out of exchanges. No, becasue no on can pick a high or low, but zoom out and it's an S uptake curve or something log. So sure you might get a 2x of 5 x which means you stand to miss out on the 100 or 1000 x that you will never get your BTC back. I am waiting until everything becomes demontated in sats. No fiat. Which it will. A good wage will be a 1,000,000 sats a year. |
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I'd consider myself a long term holder. However, if you offered me the opportunity to make three times more Bitcoin, without any uncertainty at all. I'd bite your hand off for it. Obviously, you can't guarantee it. However, there was definitely long term holders who were holding for a few years, that sold, and recouped much more Bitcoin during these times.
This whole hold thing is starting to become worse than a cult, I simply can't understand how the hell can one think holders would have no regret of missing an opportunity of doing 3x or 5x like they are some kind of archangels that's don't care about such trivial things when in reality what do they hold for? Common, honesty time, nobody holds for a decade for no reason and we all know what the target is, let it reach 1 million (without some hyperinflation) and at least 90% will be f%^%$ holding, go lambo!!!! Face reality, if I would offer people to travel back in time for
- one year, everyone would go and sell their coins at 68k
Was this just a theoretical example, or could you make this a reality?  Right now is purely theoretical, as all my simulations are stopped by a stupid requirement, seems that unlike the other guy that tried and managed to do it since he only needed 88 mph and a DeLorean, for my project I need 21 000 021 BTC to do make it work, and this is quite the problem.  Snip This whole hold thing is starting to become worse than a cult, /Snip No. No it is not. It is like realising that newtons laws of using calculus is a means of doing something. You can ignore it, and go no where or use it and enter a new era. BTC hodl is not hodl for hodl sake or to make a "profit" in fiat. The hodl because they see BTC as a sui generis de novo thing, which serves to revalue the entire economic capacity of man in the world, and there by his raison d'etre for any action taken. Now we make our decsions though the fiat feedback which is a signal that is adulterated by tax and priniting, almost leaving us blind. BTC is much cleaner signal so we can now see where we are going and what the best action / economic action to take is. Your just used to thinking of USD or FIAT as the deonminator. That thinking, your thinking is like I can trade in 10 beds on the titanic for 1 bed on land, but I have to sleep in one of the 10 beds on the Titanic. |
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I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.
After mutliple 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, any one who was going to sell has sold, and been short squeezed out of the market.
 Another example of how much in the red zone we are, tinfoil hats on, it's the gubbermint, the Illuminati, fake orders, it's a conspiracy. Whenever the free-market doens't work in their favor there is always screaming manipulation! Most real btc are in the hands oof long term holders.
With 600 k BTC being hold on Binance, around 900k coins on Coinbase storage, and around 2 million in identified address alone it is quite hard from that to decide majority are in the hand of "long term" holders. What describes a long-term holder, one that wants to wait at least 10 years and precisely 20 days and 5 minutes, or somebody that has a target for his revenue? Let's be honest, most so-called long-term holders are right now thinking "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC", imagine what will happen if the worse comes true and we go till 10k? No. 600K and 900K coins are not a lot vs 17M+ coins out there. Also you miss the point a sellers have been wiped out 3 or 4 times now. And no long term holders dont think " "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC", they thing, if I sell and the market turns I will never be able to buy back in and miss out the 10 X or 20 x or whatever. Like the guy "I wish I had kept my 1,700 BTC @ $0.06 instead of selling them at $0.30, now that they're $8.00! " This is what happenes when you sell, and is the mind set of a non long term holder. they would have all sold out, along time ago on the way up multiple times
represents about a third of the influential quantities.
and thats my point, wiped out in one move, at one point in time and this has happened 20 times plus is BTC falls. The real bears with real BTC are exopentially dead and have been for a long time.
I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.
This issue was detected a long ago and it every exchange that was guilty of fake trading at some point, not the CEX alone though CEX are the king in fake trading. However, i am surprised you just noticed this now. No I said this a few years back as well, just saying it agian now, as it becomes even more apparent. |
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I am increasingly of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.
After mutliple 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, any one who was going to sell has sold, and been short squeezed out of the market.
Most real btc are in the hands oof long term holders.
occam's razor suggests it would seem that most exchange have a good amount of fractional btc that are being "made" and sold to real fiat buyers.
Haveing said that a good amount of "stable" coins are probally fake or not at face value. That is tether et.al printers are buying BTC on exchanges. Some of which will not be redeemable.
So this goes in tiers.
The people who paid fiat for thier tether.stable will not get thier fiat back, and the people who then purchased BTC with thier stable will not get thier BTC back unless they move thier BTC of the exchange.
It is my understanding that all centralised systems become fractional, even if not meaning to just to the shear number of tranactions going on.
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For those people who are long term holders of btc or any crypto, do you have a plan of when you would sell it?
Im not certain if I can consider myself as a long term hodler since im not like others who can ignore their crypto even for long time because they can sustain themselves financially and not struggling. In my case, I have set target price for my Bitcoin and altcoins on when im going to sell it. But I still take profit at times if my coins had a huge increase, this is to enjoy some of my earnings. Im holding some of my alts for few years now, but when it comes to my Bitcoin, there are times I get tempted to sell it especially if im really in need of money. There's no wrong actually if you keep your bitcoins for long term hodling, but its certainly not a smart move for a wise investor. Yes, you can hold it as much as you can but you can't hold the assurance if its value will always moves up. There are times that its price suddenly drops down and then you miss the chance again to make profits. So its a always a smart idea to set your target selling price so you will also gain profits and not just on accumulating more bitcoin. Investing helps you create profits and capital gains, so you should always find time to sell your coins at a good price. if you zoom out BTC is a very wise choice. Also don't diversify. here is why. buy 100 BTC at 1$ cash out 50% at 20$ like any traditional diversified investor theory/normies would tell you to 50 BTC and $1000 cash another 20 x 25 BTC and $10000 12.5 BTC and 12.5 x 20000 = 250K So now you have 12.5 BTC and 266K You have thrown away 77.5 X 45 K or 3.4 Million. But every one says diversify and 20x is way more than normines would hold and not take a profit. If you choose to cash out, then do so with very small amount of your total, eg 1% ~5% of total holdings on or around what you think are run ups. |
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at x billion size purchase, they will have loans from back somwhere in the pipeline, so it great just inflates fiat more and pumps value of BTC.
Think about it, swapiing infintley printibale digital USD via fractional reserve and QE for hard money. Who would not?
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What do you cash out into ?
FIAT devalues 20% a year
Realestate illiquid, taxed, divource rape by courts
Stocks Rigged every possible way and can just disapear unlike btc
Gold/Silver gold cert rigged.
Find a better asset class is the first issue even before you get to "price".
I recall around here when 21 BTC was the make it number and that was not to hard to get.
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EDIT Figured it out
Ok so what happened is I *sent* the transaction, at least the electrum walled show it as sent, but it was never actually sent / broadcast on chain.
I am not sure how the electrum wallet thinks this transaction has happened.
I probally have to reload the headers or something.
To get the right wallet I restored a wallet from the *zpub....* again.
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-snip-
If that happens, you don't have to restore the watch-only wallet, the saved " local transaction" can be removed by the right-click menu " remove". That sometimes happen if the server you're connected to somehow dropped it from their mempool, or since you're using a cold-storage set-up, you may have clicked " save" instead of broadcast after loading the signed transaction. Either way, it will be saved as a 'local transaction', indicated by the 'blue computer' icon instead of the 'check', 'pie' or 'clock' icon. Example:  Thanks! |
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if u have solved it yourself.
then u can close this thread.
I have sort of solved the issue, But it does not explain why the wallet showed up as the transaction going through when it never got onto the blockchain. So I will leave it open for that reason |
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EDIT Figured it out
Ok so what happened is I *sent* the transaction, at least the electrum walled show it as sent, but it was never actually sent / broadcast on chain.
I am not sure how the electrum wallet thinks this transaction has happened.
I probally have to reload the headers or something.
To get the right wallet I restored a wallet from the *zpub....* again.
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So I have an address in my BTC electrum wallet (watching) and it shows I have some BTC on it.
However the I cannot see this btc on any blockchain explorer on that address.
There are no incomeing or outgoing transactions on the blockchain explorer on that address.
I can see all the other addresses in my wallter have that have BTC have the corresponding amounts on various blockchain explorers and are correct in all respects.
I have found he outstanding amount ON a different change address in my wallet.
that
For some reason the Electrum wallet has confused itself as what address the coins are on.
The BTC in the electrm wallet show the BTC is on the change adress one bellow where it actualy is.
When I make a transaction to sign, it is using the wrong address.
Thanks in advance.
What has happened here?
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Does anyone know why the amount in circulation of XYM on Coinmarketcap is significantly lower than XEM (5,58 bln vs 8,99 bln)? According to the snapshot, there should be exactly the same amount in circulation, right?
I've been wondering for some time why XYM, although significantly higher in price, is positioned somewhere on rank 200, while XEM is among the top 100.
Or is it just a wrong representation with Coinmarketcap.ccom?
Yes because not everyone claimed thier XYM with thier XEM yet. Its likely that those that have not claimed will not. |
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Ok
So I think Shib sort of hooked into where the feather coin and CNC left off.
The normies undestand a billion or millon of something is worth alot, thye fell that owning 100K is beter then sub fractions. The gen masses still dont realy get you caan buy fractional BTC an no one like to feel less than a whole.
Fort this reason haveing a coin where many and be million or billion "coin" token aires is fundamentallyu atttative becuase it is iunderstandable.
If nromies people undestood "sats" they would feel the same way.
I think shibs are going to get rugged hard, but it will surpass likely doge. Then get rugged.
The shibs feel left out becuase they were not into doge and t his is their cahnce.
I however also think its bad for crypto if Shib goes stupidly high, and it probally will at this point.
For risk of the rugening TM however it to high to enter at this point.
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I think the masses are slowy wakeing up to printed money infaltion as houses and cost of living decouple from wages - its a long time now sicne the 70's and people are finaly wiseing up across the spectrum.
- Boomers can't get a intrest rate return so are force in to shares or realestate
- Yonger gen locked out if apreciateing assets classes in any meaninfull way
- middle class are shrinking in number and findign thier jobs don't meet cost of living.
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$100k is going to be difficult to maintain IMO since it is a lot of peoples "get out of BTC and retire" price.
If you are sitting on 20 or 30 BTC then depending on your age, where you live and a few other factors more or less retire and do whatever.
Yes, if you buy Lambos it's going to be a different story, but if you are middle age and want to kick back and relax then I can see a lot of selling at that price.
Just my view.
-Dave
not many middle aged people have 20 or 30 BTC, its rare anyone held from say 2009 or 10, 11 12 or 13 to now, most cash out at say 10 - 100x |
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I am of the view BTC is the world's first general AI with a narrow objective to secure the blockchain.
It can and does do everything to optimize power to hash which secures the blockchain.
It happens to be mated to the human population at the moment on the basis it offers value via arbitrage of the valuation of everything in the world vs legacy FIAT. Robotic actors could increase fulfill this role.
whether etherium or some other become dominant is otiose. The proposition stands.
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21 bitcoins back in 2013 ~ 2016 was the club to be in.
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Because the number of bitcoins is known is there any good analysis of if buys of BTC balances with sells of btc over time.
that is you should be able to sum within say 5% error over an extended period of time if the sells match buys.
Then you could call out fake sells and buys by exchanges.
I personally think and have said that a lot of exchanges are selling fake BTC and also a lot of fake tether buying.
Any decentralized exchange has to become fraction either by intention to suck profit in a harder currency from you, or because you just loose track
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