http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/controlled-chaos-european-cities-do-away-with-traffic-signs-a-448747.htmlEveryone who bashed this GIF with no second thought or research proved they are completely clueless in life. Removing all traffic laws and signs (except a few like 50 km/h speed limit in towns) made traffic more fluent, safer and faster on average. The Autobahns have significantly fewer accidents NORMALIZED for traffic volume than many other highways. This movement will most likely become more widespread. It goes with the Clarkson quote with spikes in the steering wheel and a few other ideas from behavioural economics: 1. People ignore >70% of traffic signs, and much more in the US where the sign spam is completely out of control. 2. People read recommendations as mandatory a. Lacking speed limits, most people drive at their comfort speed. Speed LIMITS are by definition above the comfort zone of most people; otherwise they are inefficiently low. With speed limits, people drive at speed limits or above (usually) even if that is no longer comfortable for them (i.e. how tired they are). b. When banks recommend a MAXIMUM of ~34% monthly income to go to house mortgage, the vast majority of people take that as default and end up over-extending. In short, if you take the signs away, people drive more carefully and organically, minding their surroundings. This is completely foreign to US drivers due to feelings of entitlement and "being in the right" no matter what the local traffic conditions are. That's also one of the main causes for how many accidents there are on the US highways (mostly, in merging and lane changing). In my home city, in my mostly lawless-driving EU country, people routinely drive at 100+ km/h during the night in cities, even if the speed limit is the classic 50. Almost all accidents happen when drivers were DUI, racing or irresponsible local-mafia brats. Y'all really need to get your head out of the "we need to control you or you would kill eachother" arsehole. I though "antifragile" was trending?
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So much delusion here. Look at 1h charts for Stamp and Huobi. Do you notice anything odd in the last two days?
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Deposits will soon be removed from the Chinese exchanges, users will have some time to withdraw their funds, and this story will be behind us. Until ALL the Chinese exchanges stop doing business, this will continue to drag on. Can't blame them for trying what they can to continue on, but at some point enough is enough. They aren't allowed to accept RMB (CNY), and there is no financial innovation they can use to avoid it.
The future for China is a decentralized exchange which matches buyers/sellers and is hosted off-shore. The exchange will not touch fiat currency, only BTC. The BTC will be held in escrow as one party sends money to the other. When both parties agree that the Alipay / bank transfer has been received by the BTC seller, the BTC will be released to the buyer's address which they provided before-hand.
This business model is effectively impossible for China to regulate and will eventually lead to a full-out ban on Bitcoin. However, such a ban will be very difficult to enforce.
^^ Your model is probably the only solution left for Chinese exchanges. a localbitcoins-like exchange. Again, there's a few problems with the original exchange model (HK-hosted, transfer to HK) 1. Max limit of $50K transfer to HK exchanges yearly per citizen 2. Immediate 4% loss on any order/transfer between mainland / offshore (CNY conversion) (this is enormous!) Therefore it will be very tricky for the exchanges to bypass #2, unless they somehow find a way to do Escrow between citizens in mainland. And if they do find a solution, the workaround will prob. be banned again. Even with this solution, capital input with greatly be reduced (localbitcoins), as they just trade BTC between themselves. There's no new fresh money entering the market. To withdraw, you must find a buyer. To buy, you lose 4% off the bat It's a really fucked up situation up there After they all dump, we'll probably finally decouple from Huobi and return to pre-China bubble price (with the addition of new western infrastructure) I think you've misinterpreted the business model for a decentralized Chinese exchange. China has much more advanced Person-to-Person payment methods than the Western world. People can make instant, irreversible transfers through Alipay for a few cents, and all you need to pay money to another person is their Alipay number. This "exchange" does not touch the fiat currency. It is sent directly from buyer to seller. The exchange simply matches buyers and sellers, and once a deal has been arranged they hold the BTC in escrow. The BTC could be uploaded beforehand to save time, and be held on accounts, but this is not essential. When the exchange confirms that the BTC is in escrow, they provide the buyer with the seller's Alipay number. The buyer now sends the money via Alipay to the seller. Ideally, the buyer/seller are acting in good faith. Once seller has received the money, the seller confirms this and the BTC is released to the buyer. The exchange will be responsible for dispute resolution and will take a fee from the BTC being held. The exchange will NOT be hosted in China, and therefore will not be breaking any laws. It can be hosted in Australia for all it matters. Just can't be on Chinese soil, since it would be shut down. The "exchange" should record successful transactions and give +1 feedback for each successful transaction done by a buyer/seller. Conversely, they should give -1 point for any party which enters a transaction and does not fulfill their end of the deal. Fraudulent usage of the dispute system should result in a "Trade with caution" status on a user's profile. Prevent users from signing up with the same Alipay number on multiple accounts. Coinffeine. The exchange is distributed. |
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Bitcoin is a Garden of Eden state. Mathematical proof for intelligent design.
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Someone is trying to buy under the radar, Huobi.
You see it on the smooth upper edge of the minute chart, wisdom.
If that's what "under the radar" means... maybe they assume everybody has a 19th century radar... |
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Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please. Chart1 & Chart2. This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it). I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.
Maybe you should refresh your prescription. Seems you suffer from an acute episode of 0 = 1. |
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The discussion may have gotten too confusing. I am trying to understand why the Chinese government felt necessary to further restrict the money flow to the exchanges, if they do not intend to ban bitcoin outright.
Until a month ago, the bitcoin situation in China seemed to be "safe" enough from the Chinese government's viewpoint. Bitcoins could not be used in commerce (so the yuan's role as the only currency was assured), could not be handled by banks (so their financial stability was assured), and could not be bought through e-commerce sites. For the most part, they could only be exchanged by yuan inside the exchanges, who would surely hand over all their deposits and withdrawals records to the police if requested.
So it would seem that there was no room to use the exchanges for illegal money transfers (bribing, money laundering, drug traffic, whatever) without the police being able to detect and trace them.
But the Chinese government was not satisfied, and the apparent reason for the further round of restrictions was continuing concern about illegal money transfers in or through the exchanges. So, what were they still worried about?
How exactly would that work? I have accidentally sent BTC to the wrong address a few times when withdrawing from the exchanges and it is no longer in my control. As for the macro picture, Bitcoin is hazelnuts for China. They are desperately trying to pop their bubbles everywhere. Bitcoin was only one of the things that got more attention because of the price reaction. CNY is another. The grand credit contraption is trying to no avail to rev down. |
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Suitcases of cash and/or gold have worked for even more ambitious goals
One must take cash out of a bank and then carry the suitcase to the other guy, meeting him in person and in private. Seems easy and safe to you? Here, a few years ago, a State governor and a couple of Congressmen lost their posts and faced criminal charges because they were recorded by hidden cameras receiving packets of cash with the equivalent of 50'000--100'000 dollars. Another one was caught boarding a plane with a large sum stuffed in his underwear. you can just fucking send a letter with a private key if you really really don't understand what Blockchain taint means.
I don't understand. If A puts the coins into some address X and sends its private key to B, the path on the blockchain just gets reduced to one node X and zero edges. With the exchange deposit and withdrawal logs, the two links from A's bank account to the coins on X and the two links from there to B's bank account can be traced. What am I missing here? You are very deluded if you believe bribe money passes through the personal bank accounts of those involved. The US officials you gave as example are simply retarded and/or set up and/or part of a PR campaign. You are also deluded if you believe fraud and loopholes are kept under control in China. They're not even kept under control in the "civilized world". Finally, if someone were to use BTC for bribe money, be certain the transfer would be thoroughly sterilized through a bunch of exchanges and other BTC hygiene services worldwide. Do you seriously believe there is any way to stop or detect this? For all I know there already exists a BTC laundromat for oligarchs. |
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Sad to see what has happened to your mind, Jorge.
Indeed. Like the other day when I suggested that stealing bitcoins by address spoofing would be a problem unique to bitcoin. That's not how exchanges work. It's also about 1000x more complicated and risky and public than it needs to be to accomplish the supposed ends of this unworkable scheme.
There are many other ways to pay a bribe of course. But suppose that person A in Shangai needs to transfer 250'000 yuan (say = 100 BTC = 40'000 USD) to person B in Beijing without the payment being spotted by the police. Any scheme that requires complicity a third person is risky because he could be an informant or a blackmailer. Can he use bitcoin exchanges for that purpose, without leaving a trail? Transfers of bitcoins are visible on the blockchain, so A cannot just buy bitcoins on an exchange, withdraw them, and transfer them to B: the conversions of BTC from/to yuan would be in the exchange's deposit/withdraw logs, they would connect to the blockchain transfers to trace the path. But if there were a way to transfer the yuan from A to B while they are inside the exchange, then... Try to imagine a scenario where bitcoin is accepted world-wide, where you never need to go through an exchange into fiat. Then you understand the potential of bitcoin, and the danger it poses to the status quo. Don't bother, Jorge is or pretends to be thicker every day. Suitcases of cash and/or gold have worked for even more ambitious goals (see Loaded), and you can just fucking send a letter with a private key if you really really don't understand what Blockchain taint means. |
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Bitcoinwisdom is completely fubar on Huobi.
Do they have a 90-minute engine "optimization"?
Why is the orderbook shifted by 60 CNY?
Sawtooth price soon?
Free replays on "greatest hits"?
Should we trade with confidence already?
De-escalate?
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In the meanwhile, masterluc suggests red candles in the 'analysis never ends' thread ...
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Brothers, do you believe NMC will be 8 dollars like it once was?
I think NMC is not going to cut it and will end up just an alpha test. I think there are details to be fleshed out in how to implement name registration. |
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China will likely be the first test-bed for a widespread P2P cash-deposit for BTC exchange system. Built upon something like Dark Market or an extension to Mycelium local trader ... the demand is there now with the govt. knee-capping of the centralised exchange model.
How is it like? Mind giving more words? Look up coinffeine for an example. There is no counterparty risk as far as i understand the system, but it is unclear to me how viable the fiat transfers are (you do many small chunks) due to fragmentation+fees and also might be inconvenient at times because the buyer needs to post btc collateral. Thanks. Difficult, need to digest. I think digesting is the best use of our time. Bitcoin is definitely not easy, and this is from a CS theory/game theory background. |
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aminorex, what's your opinion about Epsilon Theory? I'm asking because you mentioned De Mesquita earlier.
High ambitions, relatively low content. The blogger's approach as stated is likely a fruitful one. I haven't found his analysis up to the task he set for himself. He does however do me one great favor: He digests a lot of domain knowledge, and thus gives me leads to research. I definitely need deeper and broader understanding of game theoretical factors, as these are low-hanging fruit for my modeling work. I am quite new to the subject. de Mesquita's approach appears fruitful, but costly to implement. I'm hoping to start with lower-hanging stuff. Although, I do have almost unlimited textual data, and it might be automated, to extract the structure and parameters required for de Mesquita's approach...I'm just not sure I can afford to build the pieces of that software stack which I am missing. Software takes so freaking long around here. I agree with your words on Epsilon. He either has the system but keeps it private (makes sense) or is just good ideas in good PR prose (more likely IMO). I'm new to this too. I found good information in the BTCe trollbox and "diffusion Fourier" convolutions for the price in minutes range, but they are all weak learners and need way more independence than i have now to be able to boost them. I am looking for a way to implement time dilation/contraction depending on volume based on a wild shot but did not find meaningful patterns yet and autoregressors do not work at all (somewhat surprising based on my understanding there should be at least some residual effect; i can see it with my eyes but maybe it's an illusion and i'm barking at the wrong tree). But hey, i shorted carefully at 1060 because the "china ban" seemed to shockwave in the microstructure and the primitive system seemed to get that one right. Daytrading is still impossible though. I need to look into scale-invariant invariants. |
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China will likely be the first test-bed for a widespread P2P cash-deposit for BTC exchange system. Built upon something like Dark Market or an extension to Mycelium local trader ... the demand is there now with the govt. knee-capping of the centralised exchange model.
How is it like? Mind giving more words? Look up coinffeine for an example. There is no counterparty risk as far as i understand the system, but it is unclear to me how viable the fiat transfers are (you do many small chunks) due to fragmentation+fees and also might be inconvenient at times because the buyer needs to post btc collateral. |
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Nobody bothered by the 200 coins in bids total on huobi? Earlier today both books were a few hundred coins thin but in the last hour or so asks appeared all the way up, to some 2-3k total which is more or less typical. Is this some limitation of bitcoinwisdom on many orders?
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This is purely and only, because the law enforcement authorities are not incentivized to pursue redress of grievances against the guilty parties. The obvious solution is political action, campaign donations, &c. Yes, i agree. A small incentive goes a long way, both ways. On-topic, are the books on huobi really that thin or are there only very many orders and wisdom gets lazy? |
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Hello guys,
I'm french, ( french forum talk about everything except coins...)
-I placed an order at 448 this morning on Kraken, and I realised that it passed while I was eating at restaurant...I would have canceled it when I see how it's going down, but it's done, my first BTC !
So what would you do if you had about 950 dollars to buy BTC? Buy now ? Wait ?
Buy. There is a high chance BTC will be priced 7000 USD by the end of this year. When the rise starts, it will be tremendous based on previous rises. I want to buy ! But when? NOW ? Because when I read your post since few hours, It seem that some of you think it could going down...around 7 am ( european time...I will sleep ;-) ) If you're only looking to accumulate, buy 450$ worth of BTC in max 3 weeks from now, and the rest (500$) max 3 weeks after that. Once you buy, do not sell for any reason (say, below 1000-2000 [EDIT: or use rpietila's SSS]). Then plan again. Be prepared psychologically to see the BTC price go to 100$ and not sell. Many if not most on this thread attempt to trade up and down but study for at least 6 months before you attempt to do so with more than play money (maybe, 5% of your stash?). If you want to start trading, read read and read some more, backtest any strategy you form and don't attempt to "be first" on movements unless you are an insider. Other than that, the regular advice about advice from strangers on the internet. |
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plot
I scrolled up but couldn't see where your second candle ends. Try to log your graph? Or do you need to log-star it? I put it in log scale and it still bounded at the same point on the upside. I see what you did there. Now prove the hydra game in Peano arithmetic  |
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