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201  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Wallet protection ideas for the super paranoid... on: May 13, 2011, 08:58:53 AM
You can put your encrypted wallet.dat inside a jpeg file, tt’s a pretty cool trick Cheesy
202  Local / Italiano (Italian) / Re: Italiani! on: May 13, 2011, 08:22:24 AM
che scheda video possiedi? puo' darsi non supporti CUDA o OPENCL come gia' ti ho detto.
203  Local / Italiano (Italian) / Re: Italiani! on: May 13, 2011, 04:52:15 AM
ciao giovani!xD sono nuovissimo di Bitcoin,
stavo provando con Guiminer a far la prima frazione di un coinxD

il programma funziona con il processore, invece non mi riconosce correttamente la mia  Cry mi dice Error Verify HW..

qualche spunto?

OPEN CL Supporta schede ATI dalla serie 4XXX in su, se hai nvidia mi pare dalla 8800 gt in su. ti da errore hardware se non hai questi requisiti minimi.
204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 12, 2011, 06:32:57 PM
It strikes me that the big question at this point is whether BTC is subject to longer term trends than have been easily observable up to now.  Take a look at the RSI over the past few weeks:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-02-21zeg2011-05-14ztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSI

Looking at a long-term time scale, we're way, way overdue for a reversal.  But BTC loves to misbehave.
Yes and no, oscillators are good when the market trade sideways or not much trendy. When there is a strong trend it can become misleading to trust an oscillator like the RSI.
205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 12, 2011, 05:55:53 PM
Honestly i prefer an upside breakout
this is an hourly chart, last 2 days
206  Economy / Economics / Re: wtf:steve forbes predicts adoption of gold standard 'within the next five years' on: May 12, 2011, 03:39:21 PM
Even though I'm a big believer and supporter of Bitcoin you still can't go against a 5000 year old tradition. You just can't.
Why? At some point things have to change:) the old generation is tied to the gold, bitcoins are for us and future generations.
207  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: Modified Kernel for Phoenix 1.4 on: May 12, 2011, 07:58:55 AM
Poclbm last version = 396         -f 60 -v  -w128          gpu load 98%
phoenix tweaked kernel = 406   aggression 7 fastloop   gpu load 97%

ati 5870 sapphire 1gb ddr3
@950/@333
sdk 2.3
catalyst 11.4
208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 11, 2011, 02:45:26 PM
done with sierrachart

Good to know that somebody is using sierrachart Smiley. I should release new version fixing some issues soon...
It works well nice job slush, i've noticed that sometime the data feed is lagged but it could be my internet connection.
209  Economy / Economics / Re: Will Bitcoin ever drop down below 2 USD? on: May 11, 2011, 02:26:54 PM
Very nice! 

I'd like to put a copy of this in my difficulty vs. price thread, if you don't mind.
Sure, maybe try to replicate my results to see if they are the same.
210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 11, 2011, 02:20:16 PM
Here it's more clear, weekly chart since the beginning, done with sierrachart. Impressive 3 weeks expansion with more then 500k btc that changed hands.
211  Economy / Economics / Re: Will Bitcoin ever drop down below 2 USD? on: May 11, 2011, 02:13:03 PM
Who's buying all these BitCoins?
Maybe long term investors.
212  Economy / Economics / Re: Will Bitcoin ever drop down below 2 USD? on: May 11, 2011, 11:51:41 AM
Now that is interesting, thanks for the graph.
A think you must consider, does the thash/sec affects the exchange or does the exchange affect the thash/sec?
I dont know:) probably it's a self referential system with a mutual interaction beetween these 2 aspects (speed and price) ; speed influence prices that then influence network speed and so on trying to find an equilibrium, in the meanwhile they oscillate.
213  Economy / Economics / Re: Will Bitcoin ever drop down below 2 USD? on: May 11, 2011, 09:13:21 AM

As long as people believe it as a medium of trade everything would be fine.

Yeah, that might work as a proxy for people actually using it to trade, but we don't need a proxy since we're actually trading.
This might help:

I found, playing with statistica 7 by statsoft, a nice relation using instead of difficulty the network speed in terahash/sec to price btc/usd ratio.
The formula is:
btc/usd ratio=-.4621+exp(-.56571+(1.50987)*networkspeed)
where networkspeed it's intended in terahash/sec.
Example; actual speed it's 1.385 (from http://bitcoinwatch.com/)

so

fair price = -.4621+exp(-.56571+(1.50987)*1.385) = 4.13 $/BTC
the tolerance of the exponential fitness it's around +/- 1 btc

EDIT: btc/usd ratio=-.25882+exp(-.80633+(1.65207)*networkspeed) this formula is better and use last 150 days or "bitcoin GPU-era"
if network speed will drop to 1 TH we will have 2.07 $/BTC as fair price.


this is the regression fit chart
observe vs regression


214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 11, 2011, 04:37:35 AM
Trades are all over the place in the wee hours of the morning.  Low of $4.60 and high of $6.06.  The low was set before the high.  At one point I saw the spread was over a dollar, highest bid at $4.90 and lowest ask at $5.90.

My guess is that this is the result of two would-be market manipulators.  One hoping to spark a rally by setting record highs with a big market buy, and the other hoping to spark a sell-off by clearing out the bids with a big market sell.  Both executing their trades within minutes of each other.


Six consecutive weeks of rising prices, i bet on the bull manipulator:)
Of course a sudden drop in price might incites further selling, after all this market it's thin and pretty hard to predict for now but i'm more bullish then bearish. Consider that sellers can monopolize the trading in a stock for a brief period of time, creating a sudden drop in price but then value buyers will step in once the price falls to a point deemed "too low", and bid the shares back up, i think we are seeing right now lots of long term investors attracted by the bitcoin opportunity and others ready to step in once a fast drop materialize.
I'm not much worried.
215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 09, 2011, 08:39:19 PM
I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks.  Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash.  Look what happened to silver recently.  Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction.  The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
Buy 50% now , if it will correct a bit buy the remaining 50% of the 100% amount of usd you wanna invest in btc.
216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 09, 2011, 05:33:34 PM
This is my version of the channel
http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/7425/channelp.png
sorry for the average quality but it's still clear. the channel at dec 2011 will range from 5$ to 20$ i drew 3 horizontal lines at 5,10,20$
217  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Will pay bitcoins for help! Computer restarts using pool mining. on: May 09, 2011, 03:50:48 PM
Just to further confirm, I've had similar issues attempting to run a 5850 on a 400w fairly generic PSU.  I'd get random restarts after many hours of mining.  After downclocking the card's memory to 300mhz, and the core down about 50mhz, it seems to have solved the issue.  Need to get a better PSU in the future though.
it's a psu issue, i've had the same problem with my old 500 watt psu, now with an OCZ 900watt 90% efficiency it's all perfect and no more BSOD.
218  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Spreadsheet: Invest in BTC or mining hardware? on: May 09, 2011, 02:31:48 PM
Yes you're right, i'm checking using the last few data points of difficulty increase.
this is what i obtain


around 1,7 mln difficulty for november, 6 months from now. i used the "gpu" historical data.
To match this new value, i've to use 18% instead of 8.6% as "Expected average change in difficulty" in the spreadsheet.
219  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Spreadsheet: Invest in BTC or mining hardware? on: May 09, 2011, 01:50:52 PM
how do you calculate the 6% USD/BTC rise per week and the 8.6% / 2 weeks difficulty increase?

I considered a target price of 20 for jan 2012, with 6% you have it, 20$/BTC for jan it's expected if prices will continue to rise with an exponential growth. The growth isnt linear, i simulated a cycle with 4 weeks of big expansion and 8 weeks with price retracement as we seen in the last months, i think that the most probable target it's 18-20 for jan 2012.

8.6% it's calculated forecasting an exponential increase of difficulty using historical values as a starting point, we will probably hit 1,400,000 difficulty for jan 2012 with this pace.
Indeed 6% for usd/btc weekly growth factor it's a conservative value, if a real boom kick in then 10% isnt impossible thus 70$/btc for jan 2012:) instead of 20.
cheers
220  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Spreadsheet: Invest in BTC or mining hardware? on: May 09, 2011, 08:28:32 AM
I recommend 6% for Expected weekly rise (fall) in USD/BTC
this will lead to a 20$ btc value for jan 2012. with 10% i doubt we will reach 70 usd/btc for january 2012.
It's a tough call to say where BTC might end up by the end of the year.  But, that's why the fields are changeable.  Smiley
with those 2 numbers you will see that it's more profitable to mine and hold. with my 5870 i've a 12 month profit of 27000$ (mining) against 17300$ (investing)
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