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201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has anything fundamentally changed? on: April 14, 2013, 05:31:51 PM
I am not sure I would call it fundamental but I think something has changed. Even though bitcoin can't be hacked it can be demonstrated that with DDOS'ing mt gox and causing trading lag a predictable lowering of the price occurs. It only takes a few scared people to sell, and other people will simply sell because they think the scared people will sell and they want to capture the highs and lows. Mt gox, however, have taken some steps to defend this. They threw hardware at it. They are writing a new trading engine and I think they are already changing some trading rules to help with the lag. THat is a good sign. I don't think the entirety of this last crash has to do 100% a pure bubble of speculation. Surely some of it must have been caused by attacking gox so much.
202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction for this coming week, BTC to $150 by Friday 19-04-2013 on: April 14, 2013, 05:01:51 PM
One of the advantages I see of those more serious investors in bitcoin is they will help to stabilize the market I think. They will hold their coins much longer than a normal investor would and I don't think they would try to dump them and join a panic and try to profit off of bubbles.... but rather seek a more longer term investment and recoup it eventually gradually over time.
203  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ripple vs Bitcoin = Subversion vs Git on: April 14, 2013, 03:12:53 AM
i'll just give an example of why I think ripple will help bitcoin. Maybe I misunderstand things.. but here goes

Say you have a bitcoin ATM. How would it work? when someone deposits money in it you can't magically send that money to an exchange. What you could do is what bit instant does. Bit instant uses THEIR funds and buys the bitcoin with THEIR money and you get the bitcoins and eventually some time later... they get your funds. This limits liquidity.

Now in comes ripple

you insert dollars into an ATM. You can then purchase bitcoins right then and there directly off an exchange because the ATM itself has a trust relationship with the exchange and is therefore a satellite of sorts for deposits.
204  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ripple vs Bitcoin = Subversion vs Git on: April 14, 2013, 02:43:35 AM
I think bitcoin could get incredibly popular... but I don't think it could take over the world alone. I think it needs ripple and ripple needs bitcoin.
205  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi's Fortune lower bound is 100M USD on: April 13, 2013, 10:56:40 PM
satoshi was so smart he had the forward thinking to generate a new private key address for each block he mined. Hence the reason there are 40+ thousand addresses with just 50 bitcoins in them. (Conjecture)
206  Economy / Economics / Re: Why does everyone keep calling this panic a bubble? on: April 13, 2013, 10:54:10 PM
I believe we are experiencing a technological problem and not an economic one. If you think gox is doing any of this on purpose you'd have to be joking. Incompetent ... it seems. But if bitcoin continued on an upward price trajectory gox would be firmly planted in the seat of a new multi billion or trillion dollar market. Do you think they would jeopardize that to make some quick cash by somehow driving the price down?
207  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Ripple: A Distributed Exchange for Bitcoin on: April 13, 2013, 09:30:34 AM
I see a fundamental flaw as the risk of people defaulting.  Its like Bitcoin but using IOU's, and we all know you don't have Bitcoins if someone says they owe you some; you have Bitcoins if they're sitting in your wallet.  They want you to only use trusted people of course, but this whole IOU system seems tough when you actually need to collect from someone.

Keep in mind that you are already using IOUs today. When you deposit money at MtGox, you get USD IOUs which are just an entry in their database. When you buy Bitcoins using the MtGox trading platform, you spend your USD IOUs and receive Bitcon IOUs which again are just entries in the MtGox database. It is only when you "settle", by requesting either that actual dollars or Bitcoins be sent to you from MtGox, that you have something tangible.

Ripple works exactly like this, except the IOUs are more explicit and they can be cryptographically stored, sent, and received in a safe and efficient fashion between any participants.


mr bigg I find that a pretty keen insightt. Weren't you originally a ripple hater?
208  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Ripple: A Distributed Exchange for Bitcoin on: April 13, 2013, 08:58:50 AM
i've read through the website and just have a couple questions... it says the fee will be a fraction of a ripple. It also says the fee will cost a fraction of a cent. Does that mean ripples will be worth about a cent each? Is that going to be deflationary since they are slowly destroyed? Will the fee to send in ripples ever adjust if the ripples themselves change in value?
209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another DDOS and sell-off... on: April 13, 2013, 03:30:33 AM
It looks like gox is offline. Their trading lag was not bad. If they are offline it probably means they are being DDOS'ed. That can create panic when it resumes. That's why I don't think we are out of the park yet. Someone is perpetually attacking gox and succeeding.

I rather think they pulled the plug. They want to stall the collapse for as long as possible to collect more fees. And since it is within the promised 48h "no fee" value propping area they don't loose any either.

If gox was doing any of this on purpose and destroying their own reputation then it's not to their monetary incentives is it? It's also not to their monetary incentives to have the price of bitcoin become lower.
210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another DDOS and sell-off... on: April 13, 2013, 03:22:49 AM
It looks like gox is offline. Their trading lag was not bad. If they are offline it probably means they are being DDOS'ed. That can create panic when it resumes. That's why I don't think we are out of the park yet. Someone is perpetually attacking gox and succeeding.
211  Economy / Economics / The whole idea of the deflation aspect of bitcoins being bad because of loans.. on: April 13, 2013, 02:59:48 AM
is not very well thought out IMO.

 Bitcoin is a voluntary currency. Therefore it's completely open to the free market. Even if bitcoin succeeds there will still be a free market. And if people still need or want to take loans then they will use a currency that offers them the best deal. If it's not bitcoin then they will simply get loans in a currency that isn't bitcoin. There could be a new cryptocurrency created for the explicit purpose of being one where loans are given in it and it could become easily interchangeable with bitcoins through exchanges and then you could have the whole loaning aspect of our financial system which people seem to think is a great idea. No one is going to want to store their wealth in that currency though because defaulted loans would devalue your wealth unless they were somehow paid for by the interest rates from other debtors.
212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Epic bull trap in the making? on: April 13, 2013, 12:43:21 AM
well I agree the price manipulation of the exchange is a real worry . I think they have already done a couple things though. They upgraded hardware on their server.... and as you can see from bitcoinity they only update their api or whatever at 5 minute intervals instead of all the time so that should help. Their trading lag is almost at 2 minutes again though. Not good.......
213  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My view on the current situation... on: April 12, 2013, 06:46:26 AM
Just to set the record straight.... Mt. Gox did not originally stand for Magic the Gathering: Online. That was an early jab at Bitcoin made by SomethingAwful, or 4chan, or whatever they were.

shit really? Whoops
214  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / My view on the current situation... on: April 12, 2013, 06:18:40 AM
basically one of two groups of people is attacking gox with huge amounts of DDOS. It's either someone trying to kill the price to buy back cheap or it's the government. Did you know the US has a branch in the pentagon just for economic warfare? Maybe their plan is just to play a little bitcoin war. Who knows.

It's unfortunate because increased attacks come at one of the worst times... right when bitcoin is first getting spotlight. The amount of increased popularity from genuine people alone would probably give most sites scalability problems. But combine that with attacks and it is devastating.

Did you know mt. gox originally meant magic the gathering online? It was meant as a place for trading cards. The software has been described as poorly written. They simply are fundamentally a bit handicapped in their design (and that's why they have publicly stated they are rewriting their trading engine to decouple it from their site)

Anyways the price is currently 90. The servers just came back up. This could be a great time to buy back in... or the warfare could just continue until the price is... who knows.

Bitcoin itself is as strong as ever. Decentralization is strong. Centralization is weak. right now we are seeing the effects of what happens when bitcoin is attacked at it's weakest link (exchanges).
215  Economy / Economics / How a hedge fund should invest in bitcoin on: April 11, 2013, 07:46:25 AM
Say you have a hedge fund with 400 million available to invest in bitcoin. How should they go about doing this?
Let's look at the wrong way: buying 400 million worth of bitcoins either all at once or spread throughout time. Not a good idea
Lets look at the right way : Spend somewhere in the vacinity of 10-25% of your available funds on actual bitcoins spread out in time. So in this case that would be 40-100 million tops. The rest of the funds you would INVEST into stability. You would use that money to create a massive bid wall at the price you entered the market. a 300 million dollar bidwall at the price you enter the market will pretty much provide some stability (in crashing). The idea is that the amount you invest of 10-25% would do so well in increasing in value that you don't need to invest everything. You win if the price goes up. And if the price tries to go down and your wall starts to get eaten... then you can use those bitcoins that were purchased to start creating stability on the inevitable price rise as well.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1c4fxm/how_a_large_hedge_fund_should_invest_in_bitcoin/
216  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Will bitcoin exchanges one day use ripple to help get money into their system? on: April 11, 2013, 06:42:38 AM
Here is what I mean.... currently you have to transfer money to an exchange before it can be used to purchase bitcoins. I think this involves sending it to a bank that is directly connected to the exchange.

But what if an exchange has proxy businesses spread out in a country? For instance what if an exchange had a proxy in 7-11's throughout the US that allowed someone to come in, deposit cash to the proxy business and that cash would be available to be spent on the actual exchange immediately without needing it to be sent anywhere?

or am I misunderstanding things completely.... is this the issue that ripple will actually solve? Instead of needing to send your money/cash to an exchange you will be able to just send it to a proxy company and it will be immediately availalbe to buy bitcoins because ripple will use the web of trust so it doesn't actually need to be sent anywhere first?
217  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin related question... how will ATM's work exactly? on: April 11, 2013, 06:38:31 AM
Here is what I mean.... when you use an ATM will it be connected through internet to an exchange that will allow you to buy bitcoins at whatever the current price is? Or will they simply be "stocked" with bitcoins and the stocker of the bitcoins absorbs the risk for selling them through the ATM?

if it is done wirelessly, in that way won't an ATM basically be a "node" of sorts for an exchange where their balance of money in dollars would now essentially be stored remotely at ATM's as well as however they centrally store it now?

218  Bitcoin / Project Development / a bitcoin kickstarter and colored coin idea on: April 10, 2013, 09:34:13 AM
the idea is this: what if there is a crowdfunding site like kickstarter for bitcoins.. where people pledge some small amount to projects. When they pledge an amount they are given (if the project begins) colored coins in exchange for their donation. Later on if the project is succesful the creators of the project can use some of the profit to buy back the colored coins at whatever amount. Just like the funding is voluntary the buying back can be done voluntarily. But the idea is the more that "funders" are refunded... the more they can fund new things and it would lead to a chain reaction of funding if they picked successful projects.
219  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold vs. Bitcoin on: April 10, 2013, 08:40:35 AM
Bitcoin is better than gold at pretty much everything. The only thing it really isn't is a total post apocalyptic scenario where there is no internet left.
220  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Funding of network security with infinite block sizes on: April 10, 2013, 08:37:45 AM
Oh goodie, more Google conspiracy theories. Actually I never had to ask for approval to use 20% time on Bitcoin. That's the whole point of the policy - as long as there's some justifiable connection to the business, you can do more or less whatever you want with it and managers can't tell you not to unless it's clearly abusive. That's how we ensure it's usable for radical (i.e. unexpected) innovation.

But even if I was being paid to work on Bitcoin full time by Google, the idea that I'd want Bitcoin to grow and scale up as part of some diabolical corporate master plan is stupid. Occam's Razor, people! The simplest explanation for why I have worked so hard on Bitcoin scalability is that I want it to succeed, according to the original vision laid down by Satoshi. Which did not include arbitrary and pointless limits on its traffic levels.

The idea that Bitcoin can be a store of value with a 1mb block size limit seems like nonsense to me. That's reversing cause and effect. Bitcoin gained value because it was useful, it didn't gain use because it had value - that can't be the case because it started out with a value of zero. So if Bitcoin is deliberately crippled so most people can't use it, it will also cease to have much (if any) value. You can't have one without the other. The best way to ensure Bitcoin is a solid store of value is to ensure it's widely accepted and used on an every day basis.

If Bitcoin was banned in a country then I think it's obvious its value would be close to zero. This is one of the most widely held misconceptions about Bitcoin, that it's somehow immune to state action. A currency is a classic example of network effects, the more people that use it, the more useful it becomes but it goes without saying that you have to actually know other people are using it to be able to use it yourself. If there was immediate and swift punishment of anyone who advertised acceptance of coins or interacted with an exchange, you would find it very hard to trade and coins would be useless/valueless in that jurisdiction.

The reason I'm getting tired of these debates is that I've come to agree with Gavin - there's an agenda at work and the arguments are a result of people working backwards from the conclusion they want to try and find rationales to support it.

Every single serious point made has been dealt with by now. Let's recap:

  • Scalability leads to "centralization". It's impossible to engage in meaningful debate with people like Peter on this because they refuse to get concrete and talk specific numbers for what they'd deem acceptable. But we now know that with simple optimisations that have been prototyped or implemented today, Bitcoin nodes can handle far more traffic than the worlds largest card networks on one single computer, what's more, a computer so ordinary that our very own gmaxwell has several of them in his house. This is amazing - all kinds of individuals can, on their own, afford to run full nodes without any kind of business subsidisation at all, including bandwidth. And it'll be even cheaper tomorrow.
  • Mining can't be anonymous if blocks are large. Firstly, as I already pointed out, if mining is illegal in one place then it'll just migrate to other parts of the world, and if it's illegal everywhere then it's game over and Bitcoin is valueless anyway, so at that point nobody cares anymore. But secondly, this argument is again impossible to really grapple with because it's based on an unsupported axiom: that onion networks can't scale. Nobody has shown this. Nobody has even attempted to show this. Once again, it's an argument reached by working backwards from a desired conclusion.
  • Mining is a public good and without artificial scarcity it won't get funded. This is a good argument but I've shown how alternative funding can be arranged via assurance contracts, with a concrete proposal and examples in the real world of public goods that get funded this way. It'll be years before we get to try this out (unless the value of Bitcoin falls a lot), but so far I haven't seen any serious rebuttals to this argument. The only ones that exist are of the form, "we don't have absolute certainty this will work, so let's not try". But it's not a good point because we have no certainty the proposed alternatives will work either, so they aren't better than what I've proposed.

Are there any others? The amount of time spent addressing all these arguments has been astronomical and at some point, it's got to be enough. If you want to continue to argue for artificial scaling limits, you need to get concrete and provide real numbers and real calculations supporting that position. Otherwise you're just peddling vague fears, uncertainties and doubts.

+1
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