The problem with margin trading, on a centralised no transparent platform, is the people running it or it staff can see all your positions and have some code to just pick you off around the margins.

years ago I once had an oanda test account and it did not matter where I put the buy or sell the price just magically missed them all the time, and if I had a stop loss it was executed and then market reversed.

In retrospect, I should have opened two accounts and do exactly the opposite trades on each just to see what happened.

In any event centralised margin trading you're fucked.

even in a decentralised exchange you have the issue of not decentralized exchanges having most of the volume atm so your collateral damage.

In some senses, this is why hodl is better than trading because trading is rigged until most of the volume is on decentralised exchanges where you can verify everything is legit in split seconds like on chain gambelling you can mathematically verify the house edge.

Hodl relies on the fin/tech s curve of btc, which in my view as around 2 orders of magnitude to go.

The hard work is behind btc but the last 2 orders make the value!

1575 flash crash bottom.

Here it comes lads....the dump we have been waiting for the next level and the 1.5 years sideways.

This should wipe out most of the no hodl.

then on to 100K~200K by 2020 or so, rinse repeat.

...? can you explain how the charts work a bit more?

I think we are headed to 3K and less .... should shake out 90% of everyone, and onward we go.

about 2~3 years to the next high I think?

2013~2017 - 4 years.

There seem to be too many hopefuls that i'ts going to recover in late 2018.

Essentially you have to shake out most people which then will magnify the run-up as it will be harder to get those who hold to.

We have seen a series of decreasing waves.

The next runup will be well over the 100K though, get near then blast thought to 200K then to 300K. We will need a block halving though.

I suppose there could be some argument as to the meaning of "intrinsic"

However I think the valuation, and organisation of all other things is a the intrinsic value of FIAT.

Eg it facilitates trade and interaction on a scale and efficiency that cannot be otherwise had.

Many quarters object to bitcoin on the basis it does not have "intrinsic value".

What then is is the intrinsic value of (fiat) paper money?

The ability to arrange the use and value of all other things.

Bitcoin is immune to multitude of actions that a gov may take by quantitative easing, interest rates, capital controls, etc and emerges as a better means to value all other things and arrange their use.

A central plank of bitcoins intrinsic value and arrange the use of all other things.

There's a multi Trillion proposition right there.

IF it had gone to 2K~4K we would have had the legions bitcoins is dead in the press. Just to watch it moon to 100K in 3 years.

I love filtering out the masses that you should not listen to and watching all the experts be unmasked.

Though I do accept that BTC is hard to get your head around both in terms of tech and working through the implications

why did you not change to LTC or XRP in exchange and then transfer out with that?

what is the nem documentation like?

is it considered easy to use, if not, is this some low hanging fruit that can be easily remedied?

dash seems so solve eg master nodes can afford to brute force to with  hardware

well no. Store of value. ala gold is sufficient.

i mean who buys stuff with actual gold, 5T market cap....why?

True True....I just dont see how to pick reversals both ways.

I feel pretty safe its going to 21T or so as a basket of the top 4 or so. The advantages are many, especially the one that their is no off switch

I confess I am tempted to not HODL and sell and buy back often......

however, the problem is this.

You sell at $30 back in 2013, having bought in at say $15, pretty nice right....

but say you the see the market go to the $212 and wait for it to return to $30 ish....or even $45, and it never does, get to say $70 (this is sorta close to what it did in 2013).....

Then you never buy back in until its back in the hundreds, of even $170 after the $1K high, you have just lost out much more in absolute buying power as well as % profit than you have ever made on you 100% return 15 to 30.


To illustrate, If sell at 15k, then it goes to 100K in a year or two and have been waiting to drop back to say 5K or some such.

The upside risk seems to outway any trading you can do in the interim.

This is compounded by the novel aspect of BTC, so usual rule even if they did work, really don't work here.

So then how to successfully trade? I can not see a way, you are forced to HODL and draw down from a level where you don't mind not haveing to buy back in.

So if you wan't say 100K, then you can draw down on any amount at or above that level, and be ok.

this seems to be consistent with the s curve adoption and price theory of the BTC tech ( and other tech curves)

At the exhibition, Jobs introduced the Apple II to Japanese textile maker Mizushima Satoshi

you know the one

when it trades between two narrow levels for about 8 months to a year.

eg 4000~5000K

it was about 500~700 for ages or some such.

when i see these threads i know its not over

I understand the need to SODL for expences.

The zoom out graph though shows how you  can be badly disciplined for SODL, or rather trading over HODL and its to hard to predict when the next evaluation jump will be.

I would love to trade, but the risk is so high of making a fraction of hold. In a mature market sure trade, this is not that.

I feel around the 100K will be the next mark, 1M will be the cycle after that.

Though this has to be tempered by the dilution effect of alts, so its across the whole market cap.