Возможно, мы имеем дело с мощным эффектом второго порядка

Несколькими постами ранее я уже приводил статистику объемов торгов лайтом, из которой следует, что он входит в топ-3 криптовалют по данному критерию. А высокая оборачиваемость валюты, т.е. увеличение ее скорости обращения, неизбежно приводит к инфляционному эффекту, что и может капитально занижать ценник лайта. Другими словами, если мы увеличиваем оборот в два раза, то это равнозначно увеличению количества монет в обращении в те же два раза, что очевидным образом негативно отразится на цене этой монеты (уравнение денежного обращения Фишера)

Holding a few gold coins is probably not that bad an idea on its own

But it makes sense only if you intend to keep them for life as a means of last resort only, and then pass the coins to the next generation provided you really are into this thing and don't have to sell these coins in case of an extreme necessity. Paper gold typically refers to gold mutual funds, futures and options as well as investment instruments like unallocated metal accounts that many banks offer their clients

This would be an ugly and very misleading use of the term

Up to a point where we can say it is deliberately being used to deceive traders who are not familiar with the idea behind a decentralized exchange. With DEX there is no "exchange" in the way we usually think of it, and that's why people get fooled. Technically, your desktop wallet is that exchange, while trades occur on the blockchain itself. In this way, it is impossible to freeze your funds unless the whole blockchain gets frozen (and hell turns to ice)

To make things better and trades faster, it can be beneficial to use a third-party service as a proxy to that blockchain exchange, and which would still count as a decentralized exchange proper. But if it can freeze or outright steal your money, it is not a decentralized exchange, and there is no viable reason to think or believe you are dealing with one, no matter what they claim to the contrary. Simply put, they are lying to you, they are not decentralized

That's because you don't take into account the effect of outliers

As I've gotten from your previous posts (and the posts of others, for the record), you and many other people here are thinking about martingale in the wrong way. Basically, you calculate how much you would make hourly, daily, weekly, etc in a more or less consistent way. But this is a wrong approach to martingale served right as it doesn't consider or account for the potentially destructive power of outliers

It is them which kill so many aspiring martingalers as the latter obviously neglect their destructive potential. On the other hand, if you come prepared for them, you will not only be able to survive them but to actually earn something. You just need to keep them contained and make them work for you, not the other way around. Outliers are a reality of gambling, and whether they kill you or heal you (from being the prey to the casino) is up to you

That instantly questions their randomness, and more importantly, of either

How come? Quite simple really. Since they are different, and distinctively different at that, you could say that the distinction between them is not random at all. But if it is not random, how can the distributions themselves be random then if they are supposed to be random?

I would say that with random distributions there should be no apparent distinction as this is what you could rightfully expect from two identical distributions, where any random distribution should truly belong to, i.e. all random distributions should be alike (well, as I see it)

As much as I would love to, I simply can't

In my post I gave a link to my thread which is about essentially the same thing you are writing here (i.e. decentralized exchanges). It was created three and a half years ago, and if anything, it was that (in)famous Bitfinex hack (while some still think it was actually an inside job) with over 120k bitcoins stolen that could have changed the minds of the crowd. Put shortly, it didn't. So why should things be different now, all of a sudden? We should deal with the facts and not get entrapped in fantasies, pipe dreams and wishful thinking

Physical gold is cumbersome in so many respects

First of all, you should understand that if you are buying gold (say, gold coins) on a pretty regular basis, it will quickly become known around, and probably not to the people that you would really want to be aware of your buying habits. So help yourself to guns and ammo as well, and be ready to use them if such a need arises (which it will one day)

Further, apart from knowing where to buy gold (as this is only one side to the equation), you should also know where to sell it without suffering too much a discount (which is a given), and still more so in case of an emergency situation since this is why you are going to buy gold in the first place (as otherwise there are better investment options)


You can look into gold derivatives (aka paper gold) if you don't want the usual hassles of holding physical gold

Not much of a chance but still better than nothing (or just 3 top positions)

So I wholeheartedly support this point, cherishing myself with the hopes of getting on the leaderboard one day. And while we are at it, it would be nice to implement the autobet auto restart option after the connection problems (with some tweaks like the last streak not exceeding certain count). Sorry if this has already been done as I haven't found where to check the option yet (read, point me to it)

I don't think that things are going to change dramatically in 2020

The incidents you mention (like scams, frauds, thefts, closures, etc) have been happening time and again since cryptocurrency exchanges ever came about (Bter, Cryptsy, Bitfinex, WEX, QuadrigaCX, to name but just a few). You would actually expect decentralized exchanges to get traction and momentum by now, right? I had written about this over 3 years ago, and not a lot has changed since then. So why should things turn out different in 2020? I'm very skeptical, to say the least. Sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear


I'm not sure how it is going to help you in case of a successful theft or hack attempt. And let's be honest here, it is not a panacea from outright scams and frauds, either

This question has been asked 10 zillion times

Bitcoin and gold are at the opposite ends of an investment spectrum. People invest in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin included) in order to multiply their wealth, while investing in physical gold is more about preserving one's wealth (provided there is some wealth worthy of preserving)

The point is, the people investing in Bitcoin and the people investing in gold are two very different groups of investors. In more practical terms, this typically means there are not that many investors who belong to these two groups at the same time as there are a multitude of investment options in between

That depends on your job

For example, if you are a neurosurgeon, then thinking about your cryptocurrency portfolio while performing a brain surgery may not be the best idea after all (even if it seemingly doesn't affect your "workload"). Regarding questions raised by OP, I think the best approach is to change his timeframes, i.e. to switch to longer-term trading. In this case, checking the market once or twice a day will suffice (say, in the morning and before bed, though before bed can give one a sleepless night)

In fact, it can be further generalized for any random (allegedly) distribution

For example, we may assume that the rolls (if we are talking about dice here) are independent of each other. So far, so good. But if we apply this presumably flawless logic, we necessarily arrive at an impossible inference that there should be endless losing or winning streaks. And this is where things get complicated

Since we can safely assume as well that at some point in the future our repetitive streak is going to end, we can also claim that with each roll this point comes closer and closer. But by deduction, we can then easily reach a conclusion that rolls are not really as independent as they seem to be, or future is not as unpredictable as it appears, either

Greed and impatience are killing the wannabe martingalers

Anyone seriously considering using martingale should honestly ask themselves what they are actually looking for. Martingale is a long-distance journey which requires a great deal of patience. In simple terms, it is not a hit-and-run strategy, so if you are greedy and impatient (apart from lacking an ability to correctly assess your chances to stay in the game), this approach is probably not your thing

Can help you!

For more info, see here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2361336.0

Sent you an email as well

It's actually quite fascinating

It is fascinating that I specifically mentioned that the said may not be applicable to dice ("not speaking about dice here", "not sure about dice"). And here we are with you trying to challenge my point where I made it explicitly clear (and twice at that) it can't be challenged since there is nothing to challenge. Moreover, I explained it further in my post that even if there were some form of "memory" in dice, the house edge would most certainly beat it into the ground making it completely irrelevant and inconsequential in the long run

I think we can safely discard the issue of volatility from the gambling equation

The whole point of volatility makes sense only if you are looking to earn money through gambling. But even if this is not oxymoronic on its own (which is a big if), it is definitely not the best way to make dough in the long term (where volatility concerns start to count). So, from a practical point of view, cryptocurrency volatility is the last thing that a typical gambler should care about. And I'm not even mentioning the fact that it works both ways anyway (as per definition)

You actually raise valid concerns

Unsurprisingly, I've been thinking about that too (I guess we, the gambling folks, all have been thinking or feeling something to that tune at some point). The existential question is, well, how random is random? I mean if you see two allegedly random distributions but they are distinctively different from each other, can we actually consider them truly random, or at least one of them as not random?

And that gives you an answer to your questions. If two genuinely random distributions are defiantly different in certain ways, we could in fact draw a valid conclusion that there is some form of "memory" involved in the process, which makes it look like certain numbers are more probable after you roll (e.g. grouping). That's why the casinos should actually be looking for a random distribution that behaves more like a uniform one

Well, there seems to be a lot of confusion about the approach described in this topic

Regardless, my stats are here for everyone to see and check for themselves. I'm sorry to repeat it but you don't have to earn by winning only your initial bet at the end of the losing streak. Technically, you can set the increase on loss as high as you find appropriate as long as your risks of busting are contained

Apart from that, you seem to completely discard the essence of my approach, that you earn through variance, and for that you don't need to roll 2^26 times to double your portfolio, let alone at least. Somehow I thought I had made that point abundantly clear but it looks like I failed

You can ride volatility either way

When the price is rising, you long buy and earn dough. When the price is falling, you short sell and again earn dough. Indeed, in real life it is more complex and complicated than that (e.g. with shorts your risks are virtually unlimited - only by the size of your deposit, while profits are always capped), but if you get the hang of it, you will welcome these bursts of volatility, actually wait for them, and start to question why they are not happening

Как по мне, майнинг еще более мутная тема

Ну намайните вы за 1000 рублей условных 10 монет, но если за те же деньги можно просто купить столько же, какая тогда разница? Читал еще здесь однажды историю про некоего сурового сибирского майнера, который в лютый мороз для охлаждения фермы открыл настежь окна, а потом у него лопнула батарея отопления. Я теперь даже форточку боюсь открывать, когда на улице минусовая температура. Какой там нафиг майнинг