You sound mixed up regarding what is "long term investing," and you may well not have any kind of specific timeline for when to get out exactly, even though you might have some ideas in regards to when you might start to need the money, whether that is 4-10 years or further into the future.

Sure having some specific goals into the longer term, such as 5 years or wanting to reach a certain amount, could have some relationships to long term or maybe overlap with the idea of long term or difficult to achieve goals that may or may not be reached... so some of the ways that you are framing long term could also fit within the category of long term thinking about investing.. . but you do not have to have any of those kinds of specifics...

You could have long term plans and intentions to stay with your investment 4-10 years or longer, while also recognizing that you have discretion to change your mind at any time or that you might want to make sure that you always have some ways of exiting the investment, even if you are not planning to exit, but you want to make sure that you can exit if you feel that you need to (or change your mind and want to). 

Of course, you are less likely to be successful in your investment if you end up pulling out early.. so there is a lot of power in making sure that you can stay in.. but surely you also have complete autonomy over your own life and your investments, even if you end up screwing it up.. .. and there even could be some rare scenarios that getting out ended up being the right thing to do.


There could be scenarios that someone heavily DCAs on a weekly basis for the first 2-4 years invested into bitcoin, and then the next 2 years DCA's less frequently (maybe every 2-4 weeks) and buys on dips.. and then maybe the next 2 years DCAs about once a quarter and continues to buy on dips.. and then maybe the next 2 years only DCAs about once or twice a year and buys on dips and maybe thereafter ONLY buys on dips  and rarely DCAs.  So after about 10 years, he has coins that have various levels of cost basis and surely his earliest coins have compounded in value the most and some of his later coins might or might not be profitable... and if they are profitable may still be less than 100% in profits... so maybe if the guy might consider changing his strategy into something in which he might start to sell some coins or sell on the rips and buy on the dips or even just set up a budget in which he is cashing out a bit every month, perhaps less than 4% per year of his stash, but he may reach higher levels of stages of his BTC investment in which he ends up moving more and more away from regular buying and perhaps starts to include various forms of selling that may or may not involve attempts to strategize sells around the price.. and optional whether he buys any back or not... but he has more and more options the longer he is in and the longer that some of his earlier purchased coins come into higher levels of profits, which is also not guaranteed to happen, but if we invest in such a way that we are not worried about the money, we will find out the extent to which our options might have ended up increasing in regards to how long we had been accumulating BTC and in various ways over the years.


Your first paragraph is especially a good framing Wind_FURY. 

In that regard, bitcoin provides us with a lot of various kinds of empowerment that is not merely about getting rich - even though getting rich seems to have had historically been an additional benefit that people have been receiving by building their BTC stash and mostly HODLing their BTC stash through many years.

Some people only come for the get-rich part of bitcoin and they are focused on the getting rich part and not even giving any shits about the empowering part, and surely some of these people will evolve in their thinking and understanding of bitcoin, but some of them will never get over the mere monetary focus, which I suppose in several senses if still valid, even though it is incomplete and somewhat superficial way of thinking about and understanding bitcoin... ..

even though as long as we keep building and holding our BTC, we can have very good chances of being able to end up doing both, too.. whether our original intentions had been exclusively on one or another, it still seems that both will continue to play out in the coming years.. and there are some who even say that it is inevitably based on math, even though many of us realize that it is not inevitable, yet bitcoin is a pretty amazingly designed system.. that is likely to persist and even to go up in value, which surely makes it more beneficial to any individuals to be sure to employ consistent, persistent, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive (without over doing it) accumulation strategies.


Fuck shitcoins.

You do not look at the tail to figure out what the dog is going to do.. you look at the dog to figure out what the tail is going to do.

In other words the dog wags the tail, not the other way around.

In other words, shitcoins are almost completely irrelevant to long term BTC investing ideas, even though they might have affects on short term BTC price moves in terms of creating drama or other various affinity scams that they are involved in on a regular basis... Keep your eye on the prize and be careful in terms of how much you are allowing nonsense to distract you.


Be careful in terms of trying to employ various sustained withdrawal strategies too early, since it is not intended to be a trading strategy... also it likely is good to be in bitcoin for at least a cycle and a half for your earliest of coins to likely start to compound the most in value.. so there is value in terms of getting compounding effects in your BTC holdings prior to starting to withdraw coins... but if you believe that you have reached your own level of fuck you status, then maybe in the west that would be $2  million in value and $6,666 in value of withdrawal per month or maybe in some other place, you could feel good with 1/10th that amount which is $200k and that would be $666 per month.. which does not seem like entry level fuck you status to me, but surely I understand that it could be entry-level fuck you status for some folks...and if you were to employ conservative levels of withdrawal, it is likely that your withdrawal amounts (in terms of their dollar value - (especially their 200-week moving average value) would most likely continue to go up.

So for example right around a 6.6 BTC amount of BTC holdings would currently give you right around $200k in value in terms of the spot price, and at a 4% withdrawal rate which would likely end up allowing the BTC value to continue to grow faster than your withdrawal rate, you would be authorized to withdraw 0.022BTC per month and as you withdraw the withdraw amount will slowly go down but it still could be sustainable (and even growable) for many folks to withdraw at that 4% per year rate.   https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy  ... 

The punchline still is going to be to be careful to not start to withdraw before you really have built up your bitcoin level to a stash that you are comfortable, because if you do start to withdraw, then you should mostly be presuming that your BTC holdings are going to continue to shrink in size, even if you might have some opportunities to buy back BTC with some of the proceeds that you had received in your selling BTC and the tool will even suggest to sell several months in advance at various stages when the BTC price is at various levels of percentages higher than the 200-week moving average, so for example if the BTC price is 14x higher than the 200-week moving average, the tool authorizes (and even suggests) that you might consider selling up to 59 months of your monthly authorized budget in advance, but for example, we would still need to use some common sense because if you had already sold 23 months in advance when the 59 months in advance prices were to be triggered, then you would ONLY have a remaining 36 months (59-23) in advance that you would be able to sell, yet I still would not consider the tool to be trading tool even though many of us likely realize that if we were to sell 59 months in advance, there may well both be difficulties in spending that amount of money in 59 months, but also we likely are going to realize that the BTC price does not likely stay at those kinds of high levels for long periods of time, so it is quite likely that within the next couple of years there would be opportunties to use some of the advance months to buy back some months and to be able to use the tool with higher balances that result from buying back months. and then you would also be able to continue to cash out within the guidelines of the sustainable withdrawal system once the months are bought back and reviving your ability to use the system... so maybe a lot of this sounds complicated because the tool provides guidance, but you still have to keep track of your own actions and the level that you had used the withdrawal amounts or that you had bought back some of the months or maybe buying back all of the months that were still remaining for you to budget yourself. 

And maybe my main point, along with the theme of this thread is to make sure that you have accumulated enough BTC before you start fucking around with trying to trade.. and it surely would become more likely to become more apparent how to treat your BTC stash and holdings once it starts to get to a size that you could start to employ some kind of sustainable withdrawal, an the sustainable withdrawal tool is to help to give guidances regarding how to not overdo your level of withdraw, and if you error on the side of being someone conservative when you start to use the tool but also conservative in your settings of how much that you permit yourself to withdraw, it may well end up being the case that the value in the holdings will continue to grow while you are withdrawing and you would be able to withdraw at more aggressive rates later down the road. and maybe still staying within parameters to keep the portfolio sustainable perhaps even in perpetual ways, in part depending on if the BTC price continues to cooperate with historical assumptions or there may need to be some adjustments to the assumptions if BTC price dynamics change in the coming years.


These are decent points about any decisions to sell when a person is wanting to get more BTC should be considered in light that the price might not ever drop back down, so usually the sell amounts would be relatively small, especially if a person is in BTC accumulation stages, and any one still accumulating is going to end up feeling quite uncomfortable if he sells some BTC but the price keeps going up and then he is accumulating a lot of cash and feeling a need to buy, so he ends up buying way higher than his earlier sell price.


We are not talking about crypto here, since we don't give any shits about shitcoins.

By the way, you did not use the word bitcoin in any place in your post, which may signal that you are actually lost and you posted in the wrong thread.

Now if you mistakenly used the word crypto when you meant to say bitcoin, then that might be understandable, but I don't see why anyone would want to use the word crypto instead of just using the word bitcoin unless: 1) he either does not know what bitcoin is 2) he just wanted to sound smarter to make it seem as if the same principles that apply to bitcoin applies to shitcoins too.. which surely is not true or 3) he is being disingenuine and purposefully trying to distract or mistlead the conversation (which I am not going to presume those kinds of bad intentions without further evidence). 

If you had not realized, you cannot apply the same principles to shitcoins as you would for bitcoin, since bitcoin is something that has value and the overwhelming majority (if not all) shitcoins are either affinity scams or something close to that in which they are just coat tailing off of bitcoin's security, and sure no problem that they exist and that they are being used to mislead and scam people.  That is the way the world works, correct?    Yet, we should at least recognize and appreciate that shitcoins (crypto), is not the same as bitcoin since their performance is nearly completely dependent upon bitcoin's performance.

Hopefully no one is investing in crypto. .since that is a meaningless term, which largely means shitcoins and/or trading and/or gambling.  Fuck shitcoins, at least when it comes to investing;;; however, if you want to trade them, that is another story.. you can trade shitcoins and potentially make a lot of money if you know how to play those kinds of games.. .. though I personally am not into trading and it is not necessarily easy to trade, since trading takes a lot of skills and perhaps luck too.. but there may be ways to set up trades that are not so much luck based but more about locking in profits and having more winners than losers.

Now if we are talking about investing, which seems to have had been more the thrust of ideas underpinning this thread, then we need to use the word bitcoin if that is what we are talking about.

If you are fucking around with shitcoins, then that involves other theories and practices involving when to get in and when to get out which is largely about trading.

If we are talking about bitcoin and investing, then you don't really need to focus very much on ideas about when to get out.. but you do likely need to make sure that your getting in strategies are sufficiently solid in order that you will be able to hold and perhaps even continue to invest for 4-10 years or longer.

Between the time that you made this responsive post and my earlier post, I made did some further editing of my earlier post... so it is not exactly a comfortable topic for me.

I will admit that I read through one or two Wasabi wallet threads, and I had not been much of a fan of wasabi wallet in the last couple of years when a lot of the negative press had been coming out regarding some changes that were made regarding coordinators, and I am likely not even able to clearly articulate my concerns, and I don't really want to use the mixing services because I think that other members are raising plenty of concerns regarding why not to trust the wallet in terms of cooperation agreements that Wasabi has with chain analysis firms. Maybe historically I had agreed with some of the judgements of o_e_l_e_o on the topic and even BlackHatcoiner and some other fairly vocal Wasabi critics. I don't see any problems with the kinds of statements from o_e_l_e_o  and his continued assertions of not trusting Wasabi wallet... maybe he is wrong about some things, but I doubt that his conduct rises to the level of intentionally lying or misleading even if he was wrong or admitted that he was wrong about some of Wasabi's practices.

I am surely not technical enough to even understand a lot of the assertions, even though from time to time I do read through some of those kind of technical and/or privacy threads, but sometimes it is not easy for me to relate to all of the things that are being claimed, even though I am not retarded so I do understand some of the claims and/or some of the overall assessments and generally from time to time, I end up relying on various representations and assessments of other forum members who seem to have more technical knowledge than me...and yeah if it starts to appear to me that one or another member is lying or being disingenuine in his posts and/or his assertions then I might choose to rely less upon their representations in future posts... and I still believe that o_e_l_e_o tended to post in good faith, even though I can recall that sometimes he took some pretty strict privacy stances, and I am not even clear if I would be willing to take similar steps as him because sometimes there is a need for greater technical knowledge if any of us were going to take some of the additional privacy steps such as discontinuing to use some of the consumer-friendly phones or applications, but that still does not mean that I have been very excited about Wasabi in the last few years, even though I don't claim to completely understand all of the details - but in the last year or two I have not been feeling any inclinations to want to use Wasabi. 

In the coming weeks, I will try to make some time and look at that 5 page Wasabi thread that you highlighted with o_e_l_e_o 's participation therein, even though no member has posted in that thread since mid 2022.

I believe that it is a bad idea to purposefully make arguments that are aimed at someone's credibility and past conduct at the news of his announcement that he is leaving the forum due to his belief that he does not have much time left on this planet (perhaps a matter of months in terms of his representations), and we have no reason to believe that Leo is making up his reason for leaving the forum.. even though we likely are not able to completely confirm his claims either - except that he had been considered a reliable and credible person on the forum, and I have not seen any significant and/or meaningful posts to establish that o_e_l_e_o engaged in the conduct that you are accusing him of having had done, including that lying is a kind act that seems to need to establish bad intentions, and largely I came to this thread in order to post my response to the news of o_e_l_e_o's farewell since o_e_l_e_o had locked his thread by the time I was in the process of drafting my response that I was going to post in that thread that he closed.  

Admittedly, I am not very much interested in the topic of your OP in terms of your framing it as o_e_l_e_o  being a bad intention person, which seems quite contrary to my own interactions and experiences with his post history to the extent that I had come across his posts, read them and/or felt that I might have understood some of them, so maybe it is my own mistake to participate in this thread and to mostly ignore what seems to be the intentions of your OP, which many members are repelled by your behavior rather than the substantive points that you proclaim to be making (which is difficult to believe that you would really need to make your points in the denigrating ways that you did. and several members have added neutral (but still negative) comments about your conduct to your trust page based on the way that you are going about the raising of these supposed concerns.. ... report me for being somewhat off-topic and my not being very interested to engage in the substantive points of your OP, if you must...

Another thing, I think that if you had disagreements with o_e_l_e_o in regards to various posts that he made in various threads then you would have had already likely addressed those concerns inside of those other threads, or maybe you will repeat your claims against o_e_l_e_o in those threads, but based on his farewell thread and even his post claiming that he is not posting any more on the forum, now you know that he is not going to be responding to your posts, and it seems that he is the best person to respond to the claims contained within the specific kinds of posts that you are making that raise issues of his credibility or his bad intentions as you characterize them to be...

Maybe you are wanting me to read your OP with more detail?  Is that what you are requesting, even though I am not really that interested in complaints of past behaviors in regards to a guy (o_e_l_e_o  in this case) who is not going to be defending himself, and so his posts likely speak for themselves in terms of how much credibility they deserve.  You are suggesting that there are some smoking gun pieces of evidence contained in your OP outline of evidence that I need to review in order to change my opinion (or my historical trust) of o_e_l_e_o and/or his historical representations?  And, at the same time, you raise your concerns in such a way that is largely distasteful and reprehensible rather than anything that any of us should really treat seriously. I would imagine that forum administrators/mods may even be considering whether you should be punished for this post/thread, even though the forum is generally pretty tolerant towards a certain level of brashness and bad tastes in the way that members raise, present and/or respond to issues.

Edited:  After posting I had to read through various parts of this post and make some additional changes to my various responses.

The topic of this thread is built upon a presumption of long term investing, and we are not trading here or even selling for short term profits and/or expectations to buy back lower. 

if your investment plan is 4-10 years or longer, you are likely going to have better chances of experience compounding of your invested amount and also you will likely increase your options regarding what you might want to do with your bitcoin investment later down the road, especially if you both hold and invest more than one whole cycle... notice the thread topic also says nothing about selling, and that is on purpose (rather than an accident).


You guys seem to be getting all hot and bothered about keeping coins on exchanges, but also you should not be ignoring that if guys are making a lot of small purchases of BTC, they might need to consider allowing their BTC stash to build up to a certain amount prior to withdrawing them, and personally I recommend to not purposefully create UTXOs that are less than $500 to $1k, even if you might be able to currently transfer for reasonable fees, we also need to give ourselves more options in the future, so part of that is holding our own keys but another part is to make sure that we do not have UTXOs that might be too uneconomical to spend under certain high fee market conditions that might happen in the future that might even be worse than the fee situation in the last nearly 3 months.

We do not know enough to make that kind of a conclusion.  Sure Leo said that he knew about his illness for 10 years, yet we cannot conclude that he had enough information in order to take a course of action that would have had been more appropriate than the one that he had chosen to take - including the fact that many folks will fight their illness and even the idea of their mortality for much longer than is reasonable in order to expect any kind of recovery or any reversal in the degeneration that they might be undergoing. .and yeah we do not even know those kinds of specifics with any kind of level of detail or even generally, so we just might try to reasonably infer from what he had said.

I got the sense that Leo was purposefully being vague in his Farewell OP about specifics of his illness in order to potentially lessen the chances that some folks might read more details into his chosen explanation than what would be warranted. .and sure I suppose with any of us, we run risks when we choose to share any of our personal details.. and maybe we should not, even though Leo had stated some of the reasons that he had chosen to provide a kind of overview of the situation rather than details as a courtesy to some folks who he felt that he should provide some kind of framework to understand why he was going to be disappearing from the forum.. so maybe one of the lessons of how much Leo chose to disclose might be 'damned if you do, and damned if you don't."

Hopefully you are not fucking around with shitcoins.  That is a whole other story.  There likely are not any shitcoins worth holding for the long term, unless you have some special in and out plan, but that is not the same as holding for long term, such as bitcoin where you could plan 4-10 years or longer. .but you cannot do that with shitcoins, so fuck off with the confusion, distraction and off-topicness of bringing shitcoins into this conversation as if shitcoins were the same (or a similar) idea as investing into bitcoin, which is the topic category of this thread.

I can imagine, yet I was still trying to consider about whether you had been referring to dragonvlinux's bet proposal or if we might be considering how to manage stack sizes within our life times, and personally, I doubt that there is a need to go to $1 per sat in order for 0.1BTC to bring someone to entry-level fuck you status, and surely you pointed out that would be $10 million per coin, and sure we are likely going to need to move up entry-level fuck you status from time to time, but several times when I am attempting to project forward, I am presuming a kind of modest debasement of the dollar rather than what is likely really going to happen, but at t.he same time, we should be striving to consider matters in real term prices of goods and services (ie hookers, lambos and blow) rather than getting trapped into too many of the nominal terms that are almost inevitably going to continue to happen to the dollar - so it is difficult to know how, if and when various dollar-reset matters are going to have to come to fruition because the level of debt is just becoming too unreasonable and not likely to sustain.  

There is a recent thread on dollar sat parity.

I think that I said dollar sat parity in around 100 years, but an "off-the-books" extension my entry-level fuck you status chart actually shows less than 0.1 BTC starting in 2083

>>>>>5/29/83      $20,106,900   2.71%   95.00%   $544,394   0.09946834<<<<<


Yes, it does sound like pushing it.

0.1 BTC.
Set for life.

Can you imagine? Will there be a time when this teeny-weeny amount of coin could get one up to "fuck you" status? Let's see... 1 sat = $1 --> 0.1 BTC = $10,000,000. I know this may seem like a super-rare, super-optimistic, super-bullish, super-long-term scenario, but never say never. That's what I've learned throughout my journey in these here parts.
[/quote]

Depends on lower level double digits or upper level double digits because surely we have already pretty clearly passed below 69 BTC, and entry-level fuck you status (even at western levels) is continuing to drop pretty fast, even when using fairly conservative numbers.
 
Yes, it does sound like pushing it.

0.1 BTC.
Set for life.

Can you imagine? Will there be a time when this teeny-weeny amount of coin could get one up to "fuck you" status? Let's see... 1 sat = $1 --> 0.1 BTC = $10,000,000. I know this may seem like a super-rare, super-optimistic, super-bullish, super-long-term scenario, but never say never. That's what I've learned throughout my journey in these here parts.
[/quote]
 
Of course, as I already mentioned to Philip, if we might be close to entry-level fuck you status, yet not quite there, it seems likely that entry-level fuck you status could come to us as long as we might be willing too take temporary cut in the amount that we are withdrawing... but I know that some of us, and you had even mentioned in the past, that it can be quite scary to try to figure out how to make sure that we have sufficient and adequate health care coverage, which seems a reason that a lot of folks have to keep on working, and maybe one of the reasons that we might not want to pull any fuck you lever until we are either clearly above entry-level fuck you status or maybe that we were to have some kind of extra built-in cushion, even though the fact that we might be measuring from bitcoin and even using the 200-week moving average (or bottom prices) as our measurement, we might already have had included a sufficiently well-sized cushion... except to the extent maybe if someone wants to include travel then there could be some extra costs with that, if he had not been previously traveling due to having the mostly geographically tied down J.O.B.


Those of us who did a lot of our heavy BTC accumulation prior to 2021 or even prior to late 2020 (so presumptively for BTC less than $10k), and even some of us prior to 2018 (which may well bring average BTC costs below $3k) then maybe we are in a position of both having had been able to accumulate a decent amount of cornz (and sure some guys might have continued to add corn in the last few years, even though adding in later years would have had been at higher prices) and perhaps having several compoundings of our stashes based on our investment average being quite a bit lower than $10k per BTC, even accounting for our later sat stackenings... so yeah a combination of quantity of BTC accumulated and also average cost per BTC, can make differences to comfort levels even though we might not need to have a lot of compoundings as long as we have cost per BTC that are quite a bit below the 200-week moving average and also even if we start to withdraw at a relatively reasonable (or sustainable rate), we might still be able to experience growth in the value of our BTC stash and ongoing compoundings of our remaining stash with the passage of time.

Even though we had quite a bit of scary (sub 200-WMA) BTC price performance between June 2022 and October 2023, that period of time still did not bring the 200-week moving average to move below 20% in terms of its annual price appreciation during that time, which even though we cannot guarantee that the 200-WMA will never go into the negative, it seems that we have enough evidence to be able formulate our withdrawals around it.


A guy has the capability to build riches when he makes sure that his expenses are below his income, and so if at some point he is able to stop working and he still has income that is greater than his income, then he is also rich.  So then it seems to be just a matter of degree regarding how much excess income that he needs beyond his expenses, and sure he can keep on increasing his consumption, so that he is living beyond his wildest of dreams, and if his income is exceeding that, then he has not broken any rules of being sustainably rich.

Does a question thereafter arise in regards to whether he needs to keep building his wealth, even while consuming or does he need to compete with others who are more rich than him.  How long will it take for a status quo $100 million dollar bitcoiner to reach the wealth status of a $5 billion dollar no coiner?  Does it matter?  Sure one might be on the lower end of filthy rich, yet surely when we are getting into the billions, then currently, there should be no question that those people have cleared into filthy rich status and can consume more than 10x more than the one who I had earlier described at entry-level filthy rich status, then the entry level mere $80 million of wealth has an income of $500k per month, but the one who has $800 he million would have $5million per month of income, so objectively that is better and I suppose the one with $8 billion would therefore have $50 million per month of income in the event that he might be wanting to spend that level of passive income on hookers, lambos, blow and other consumption goods.

It all seems a bit abstract to me, but I suppose some of the bitcoiners are likely starting to reach those various level of filthy rich, and maybe even moreso in this next cycle, but we still don't really know how this cycle might play out. It could be that some of the bitcoiners who had already based into fuck you status and maybe even a couple of times fuck you status, then a 20x to 40x increase in the spot price would make it into my definition of filthy rich in terms of the spot price, but the 200-week moving average does not move up that fast, even though a 20-40x increase in BTC's spot price would surely cause quite a bit of drawing upwardly of the 200-week moving average.


If you ever heard of keeping your wealth in bitcoin rather than believing that diversifying into various traditional investments would be able to preserve your purchasing power, then you likely would be on much stronger grounds and likely you would not need as much wealth as you seem to think that you need in order to preserve the purchasing power of your stash (your investment portfolio), and when it comes to BTC, you could likely even use a 6% withdrawal rate as long as you are using the 200-week moving average as a way to value your BTC stash.  

Maybe if you don't already have those properties that you believe you need to be at a comfortable level of fuck you status, then you might sell BTC for them, but if you are merely wanting at least a $30k per month income, then still having 200 BTC should fairly reasonable enough of a stash to accomplish that level of withdrawal, but you might have to follow some limitations as I describe in my sustainable withdrawal thread that might end up reducing your withdrawal rate if the BTC price were to go back to less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA...  

So a 200 BTC stash would get you about a 1 BTC per month withdrawal amount, but maybe if you feel that you need more cushion, then maybe you need 240 BTC which now would allow you  1.2 BTC per month, which seems to give quite a few options and even a bit of a cushion that seems to mostly fit your cash requirements... it is just a matter of having the 240 BTC left after you made all your various property purchases that would go along with your cyber truck...

but yeah, if you are going with payments rather than an outright purchase of the various properties (and even vehicles), then you would account for payments in terms of what Biodom had stated, and yeah sure there can be some benefits in terms of having payments rather than purchasing outright those things outright (there are disadvantages too), especially since BTC has good chances to appreciate greater than the interest rate on the loan, if we are referring to a 7% (and maybe 30 year) fixed rate loan, especially if you have gone through the calculations in terms of your BTC stash size (and thus value) in light of the 200-week moving average.


There are many levels that could be considered as fuck you status (including someone who might have $1 million or less and who might have abilities to give up working and not having to work for income (outside of just keeping track of it).. .and maybe someone with 25 BTC might be able to fit such category and to be able to get buy with between 4% to 6% withdrawal rate to allow for their holdings to continue to grow.


Look at what I did.

I added text "width=30" right after the first [img] and within the brakets.. so it looks like this [img width=30] rather than like this [img]

Yeah, my version might be too small, but you can play with it in terms of the extent that you want the text to be readable.. maybe 400 would be acceptable to what you would want to present without being too overwhelming, yet even if you select a size that is too small, a reader might still choose to magnify it up by double clicking and/or opening up the image in a new window.

In traditional withdrawal theory (of 4%) that would give you between $13,333 to $16,667 per month $160k to $200k per year, and in bitcoin such a withdrawal rate likely would not end up in spending down to zero.. so you could pretty much live off that amount forever, which largely means that you probably don't need that much, and probably you could get by with $3-4 million.

If you look at $3 million in terms of 200-week moving average that gets you to the required amount and instead of 4% withdrawal rate, you could probably use a 6% withdrawal rate and still meet your income requirements.

Yeah, traditional assets you cannot rely upon a 4% withdrawal rate sustaining itself, but in bitcoin I think that you can, and 100 BTC right now would be more than enough for your goal to have an income of between $160k to $200k per year in perpetuity, even though you are ONLY planning to live until 92. (look at 100 BTC here)


Fair enough.. right around  25 to 32x of FU status.


congrats.. only 25-ish more to go.


If you are putting the value in Ibonds or Tbonds or some other bullshit, then yeah.. but if you have it in bitcoin, then it will likely last forever if you have 5 million worth right now and you are drawing the equivalent of $200k per year or $16,667 per month.


Well that was my pre-2020 assessment, and yeah maybe it is not quite to the level of filthy rich.. but my current assessment is double that $80million ish.. which for me is 40x entry level fuck you status, but I would be willing to accept that 50x entry level fuck you status as a more appropriate threshold number since 50x is more of a round number.. but I think that either $80 million or $100 million should be quite difficult to blow, even if you  have exorbitant tastes, but you have to be able to manage your money too.. so live within a certain parameter, which even with $80 million, if you had that in bitcoin then you could withdraw around 6% per year... so let me look that up.. ...

one minute..

ok

That would be right around 2,625 BTC if we were using the 200-week moving average as our valuation and with 6% as our withdrawal rate, and it would give you right around $550k per month of income (or a wee bit more than 13 BTC per month right now)...

Part of any attempt to maintain wealth would be living within your means and not drawing into principle, and if someone needs more than 1/2 million per month to live, then surely if he were to live more frugally for a few years, then his withdrawal rate would end up going up.


Yes.. that's why $40 million was entry level filthy rich status prior to 2020.  and sure, your results may vary.
 

 You might be correct that you would not want any filthy rich person to have any limits, otherwise, he would not reach the definition of filthy rich... or even entry-level filthy rich, and by the way, I do think that you can get your money to work for you, especially using bitcoin, and maybe there would be more costs or gambles under the traditional filthy rich status if you were putting your wealth in index funds, and bonds and yes property can appreciate in value but it also costs money to maintain... but people do store their wealth in properties... and some properties likely retain their value better than other properties.


Sure, that could be the house of a filthy rich person who is appearing to live modestly...and so how many homes does a person want.. sure maybe a few would be good, but yeah each place is likely going to need some reasonable management of the whole thing, which likely becomes more important the more locations that a person chooses to have.

I think that we were talking about very high levels of rich rather than merely getting into some various multiple of fuck you status, and maybe referring to being able to afford yachts and planes and things like that, and yeah, not everyone agreed with my own personal assessment that $40 million would be enough to cross into such territory, so yeah, now maybe $80 million or $100 million might be needed for the same assessment of filthy rich status, especially after the enlightening happenings of 2020.



You are probably talking about fuck you status and multiples of fuck you status rather than filthy rich status.. I think that there is a difference.. ..and maybe filthy rich should be at least in the minimum of 40x fuck you status, and since entry-level fuck you status moved up from $1 million to $2 million, therefore entry-level filthy rich status likely moved up from $40 million-ish to $80 million-ish.



You don't even need to make it to western level default fuck you status at $2 million to be greatly comfortable, and even some folks could get by on way less than $2 million which produces a $6,666 per month income, and yeah if you are able to live comfortably with $666 per month, then $200k might be your entry-level fuck you status.  you are in the better of positions to be able to make assessments about your own situation and needs including hopefully anticipating present/future needs.



Seems better to not get lured into crap, but sure each person has to make those kinds of choices.



Sometimes we don't know until it happens, and sometimes we see red flags that help us to proceed with caution.  We cannot always know when the red flags are enough in order to create sufficient boundaries and/or not to get further involved with such persons...


Sometimes you are not really going to know how many coins you are going to need in order to "have enough," so you have to look at your overall situation and maybe where the BTC versus cash prices is at the time, and then you might start to reassess that you might have had transitioned into some new stage or that some different strategy is warranted based on changes in your own situation, including both the quantity of BTC that you had accumulated and perhaps how they are performing in their price dynamics whether you are measuring by spot price, 200-week moving average, or some combination of those indicators and/or other indicators.


That is pushing it.

I am not sure if I would go that far, but anyone who is starting their bitcoin journey may well take some time before he is able to even reach 1/10th of a coin, and so in that regard,  I have trouble understanding why it would be an amount that someone would be wanting to bet in the context of gentlemen rather than in the context of showing (or faking) how BIG your balls might be.


Richy_T made chartbuddy, and bitmover has his own recently created version que se llama: FeeBuddy.

The range of $200k to $500k may well ONLY have in the ballpark of 15% odds of happening between now and late 2026, so any of us should be able to come to those kinds of conclusions in our own thinking, and sure maybe we could give some considerations to how others might assign their probabilities too, but in the end each of us are the ones who have to make our own conclusions regarding how we are going to invest into bitcoin and how much and other considerations regarding how to manage our holdings through potentially turbulent times. 

So our plans likely need to be both short term and long term, so we have to know how to deal with short term turbulence that may or may not end up affecting our long term holdings.


Even though your various bot responses are not incorrect, we are talking about bitcoin here.. not shitcoins.  Your use of the term cryptocurrency seems to imply that buying the dip, holding and/or DCA would apply to shitcoins, which is a questionable proposition at best.  Fuck shitcoins and fuck the uses of the term cryptocurrency if you actually mean bitcoin then why didn't you use the word bitcoin in your whole bot-generated post?

You seem to be making shit up (which could also be referred to as a strawman's fallacy) in order to try to appear as if you are the savior, and part of the point of the thread is already getting into the consideration that prior to investing it is better to have a source of income.


Fuck crypto and fuck diversification.  Those are both distracting topics when we are talking about bitcoin here.

Anyone who is involved in the basic of considering whether to invest into anything and how much to invest does not need to get distracted into investing into a multitude of investments, and so there is nothing wrong with considering starting out with investing into bitcoin and also within that category figuring out how much disposable/discretionary cash is available to be able to invest, which gets back to the idea of having enough income to cover expenses .. and as many guys already mentioned, that whenever anyone starts to put any of his extra cash into anything besides cash, then the value changes relative to cash, so it becomes more important to make sure that he has an emergency fund that would take away from the need to ever have to dip into his investment, except at a time that is of his complete choosing. 

Guys also mentioned how extra cashflow sources could serve as a kind of emergency fund, which likely is not as good as having an actual emergency fund, even though it can be a solution to increase your income and to lessen the risk that any one drying up of cashflow would result in excessive shortages in cash.

And, sure like you said there are all kinds of reasons that an emergency fund might be needed, which further justifies to make sure to build that part of anyone's preparations, even sometimes an emergency fund and investing into bitcoin could be done at the same time, but there may be needs to be a lot less aggressive in the bitcoin investment until the emergency fund reaches a size that is sufficient to cover emergencies that may come about.

I personally believe that emergency funds should hardly ever end up being touched because anyone who is already accustomed to earning a living and having expenses, realizes that there is likely needs for a float in the cash balance and also reserves for the times in which cashflow versus expenses may well fluctuate.  Those are not emergencies.  Those are anticipated variances within the cashlfow and the amount of discretionary/disposable income that might be available from month to month (or whatever happens to be the pay periods or the times in which expenses come due).

You were not focusing on fiat versus bitcoin.  You were suggesting other ways to possibly outperform bitcoin through equities and really getting distracted.

If we might assume that any brand new person to bitcoin is more heavily weighted in fiat than bitcoin, so part of the reason to start to get into bitcoin and to figure out your bitcoin allocation is to get off of zero.

Sure maybe you come to bitcoin and you are invested in other things too.. but that is not the point when it comes to figuring out whether to get off of zero and then how much to get off zero and if you do decide to get off of zero, then perhaps from where are you going to get your funds and are you going to lump sum into bitcoin or are you going to DCA or are you going to do some mix matching of those two, including buying on dips.

I am not even suggesting that either shitcoins or other investments are completely irrelevant becuase when anyone comes to bitcoin they are coming from a certain place in which they might already have other investments, but even if they do not have much or any other investments they still are going to likely be in a better place if they consider the 9 factors that I like to frequently point out.


So really I am not even saying that we have to completely stay focused on bitcoin, even though that is the thrust of this thread and the balance that we may well be trying to make..

So when it comes down to it, you seem to be engaging in a bit of a disingenuine distraction or something if you are trying to suggest that my various attempts to categorize whimpy versus aggressive to be anything except for figuring out how heavily any of us might be going into bitcoin versus not going into bitcoin.. and so even historically whimpy strategies have even ended up performing quite well in bitcoin, but since bitcoin has been such an overwhelmingly high performing asset class, the consistently more aggressive strategies have likely paid off better than the consistently whimpy strategies..

and sure you can attempt to be selective regarding if a person is whimpy or aggressive at any particular price point in order to try to argue cases about timing the waves in the market, yet it is still way more difficult to try to employ that kind of a wave timing strategy as compared to just consistently applying some level of investment in a DCA kind of way.. whether someone is pushing their investment by attempting to maximize their discretionary/disposable income or if they are taking a more relaxed or whimpy approach and maybe some of their investments are going towards other investments, but they are still relatively whimpy in regards to bitcoin, so who gives any ratts' asses if they happen to have "reasons" for their choices to be whimpy towards bitcoin and to be distracted into other things.  

It likely does not really matter very much when are main discussion has to do with bitcoin.. and surely you should already know that it tends to be o.k. to incidentally talk about various other shitcoins or other investments in this thread, but when you start pumping them, you are both getting off topic and likely annoying people in part because you are off topic, whether they agree with you or not...

Over the years I have repeatedly mentioned some of my various other investments, yet those mentioning are usually attempting to put some kinds of context on the other investments rather than pumping them, and sure at the same time, if any of us already come to bitcoin with various kinds of allocations in our investment portfolio, that might well affect our style of investment into bitcoin. ..,. so maybe sometimes we might have to attempt to figure out how to talk to the points that others might be making in the thread in which they might not have many or any other assets in their investment portfolio.

We have likely seen quite a few statistics showing that many folks (even in supposedly better off countries) do not build up their investment portfolios very much, so maybe they will own some property (mostly owned by the bank) and they might have some form of 401k because it is sponsored through their employer or they could have a pension (largely a disappearing kind of asset), so many folks might come to bitcoin without much or any other investments besides perhaps having some cash savings and a few minor investments... and even with the cash savings, people do not tend to be very good at that either, and so many folks do not have more than 2-4 weeks in float, and when they start to invest they likely are going to need 3-6 months or more of float in their cash reserves in order to not necessarily get forced into selling their investment (whether bitcoin or otherwise) at a time that is not of their own choosing.

You Biodom had already admitted that you have had quite a few years of identifying and fucking around with various markets, and so that is not a common talent that we should expect others to have, and even though surely your knowledge and experiences have tended to be helpful many times in this thread, but still why does it even make sense that you should have much of any expectation that members in this thread should give fuck all shits about various other potential investments as any kind of central tenant or practice in this thread rather than perhaps a kind of incidental side-related discussion?  


That makes little sense and you seem to be making assumptions in regards to starting points.

Are we presuming other members to be invested in other assets or not?

I would concede that some of them are invested in other assets, but if we are talking about bitcoin, we should be trying to talk about bitcoin first, and if they are brand new to investing, then give me some kind of a hypothetical person if you really want to go into the details.

What is his income, expenses, other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and the other 9 factors to the extent relevant?

Once he has figured out how much cash he has in hand $6k perhaps? how much disposable income that he has over the next 6 months, perhaps another $6k.. so that is $12k over the next 6 months and $6k available right now.

you want to presume that he is considering whether to put that into other investments rather than bitcoin?  Why?

Sure he might have some other concerns regarding from where is he getting his initial $6k, is he drawing it from other assets or does he just have it available.  If historically he had been investing into other assets, then is he going to divert that into bitcoin over the next 6 months or what is he going to do?  He could borrow against it in order that he could lump sum invest right away, and then he has a loan that he has to pay over the next 6 months or for whatever period the loan might be (of course with service charge and interest).

I think that our main points are still about what he is doing in regard to bitcoin and he can think about his other investments in some other thread since it is not on topic here.

So if he has $100k already in his investment portfolio, then if he figures that he wants his investment into bitcoin to be somewhere between 1% and 25%, given my already description of his cashflow situation, it will likely be easier to reach a 1% target as compared with a 25% allocation.. right around 12% could be achieved over 6 months, but it could take him a bit longer to reach 25%, if that were going to be the target for his initial investment amount, and surely if he is trying to continue to service other investments then that could dilute how much he has available to invest into bitcoin.  

It could well be the case that he would like to reach his bitcoin allocation in a fast way, and sure I might say that if he is whimpy in regards to his bitcoin allocation and gravitating towards the lower end of the range (such as 1% to 2% into bitcoin) then it is easy to reach his bitcoin accumulation target and easier to continue with his other various investments, but if he were to be more aggressive and aiming towards the 20% to 25% arena then he might want to focus on getting his bitcoin investment up to its targets rather than getting distracted by other investments, but surely guys are free to do both and to dilute their bitcoin investment.

And then once he gets to whatever his target amounts are then at that point he could decide how to go forward and the extent to which he might reallocate from time to time.

I am also saying that there are circumstances in which a guy might not have other investments and he is just starting with bitcoin and cash, and there is nothing wrong with spending 1-10 years just building your bitcoin investment prior to even considering diversifying into other investments, so how much time a guy might spend ONLY invested in bitcoin might also have to do with not only how aggressive he might be in regards to investing into bitcoin but also how aggressive he is overall in regards to investing, so a guy who invests only 10% of his income/expenses into bitcoin may well take 10 years to get his investment up to 1 years salary, and a guy who invests 25% may well get there in 4 years or less and a guy who ONLY invests 1% might take 100 years to get to 1 year.  Of course, performance of the underlying investment can change these timelines in either direction.


The same could have been said when we were in the mid $200s for most of 2015.  In mid-2015 many folks would have made the same assertion that nobody will be buying BTC above $5k (that's a 20x price appreciation) or above $25k (that is a 100x price appreciation), but here we are, and there are plenty of people buying bitcoin, even though bitcoin has not even really grown very much between 2015 and now.. We still do not have a lot of adoption, but the BTC price is up more than 100x from what it was in 2015.

$500k is ONLY around a 12.5x price appreciation from here, and so I would presume that there is not going to be any shortage of buyers in the $500k + price arena, whether we are talking about 10 years from now or maybe even if we are talking about some shorter period of time, including that BTC spot prices may well get to $500k plus this cycle, which might even be greater than 8% odds that BTC prices will trade somewhere between $500k and $1 million this cycle (by the end of 2025 or perhaps into mid-to late 2026).^**

**By the way, I had to look at my earlier prediction layout to make sure that I was giving higher odds this time than I had given the last time around, which I had then (in late 2021) put at 7.75% odds of $450k to $650k by the 1st quarter of 2023.


Great.  At least you agree that it is completely doable.


That is not true.  It does not have to be life changing in any kind of transendental way, and fuck off with your idea that anyone has to have lump sums in order to make a difference.

In my earlier post, I already gave an example of some relatively poor person who might invest in the next 10 years and accumulate around 2 bitcoin and maybe they invest another 8-10 years after that and get another 0.5 BTC... that could be life changing as fuck for someone who ends up getting to his own fuck you status or even to a western level of fuck you status even though maybe he did not even have a western level of resources and income..  .. but he had persistency, consistency, and even relative aggressiveness and determination.


There is no need to get into too many details of the debasement of the dollar, since we should be attempting to value these kinds of matters in real terms rather than nominal terms, and yeah the ongoing debasement of the dollar could cause getting there to become more rapid.. but we should be attempting to price in terms of hookers, lambos, blow and other real world goods/services rather than getting stuck on dollar denominations that might be misleading and distracting to what we are wanting to say.

By the way, I will agree that front loading is likely to be better than DCA in terms of overall performance, but front loading is not always possible and/or practical, and even if we go with your example of someone with $250k right now, we likely need to know more in regards to from where is he getting that $250k?  

If the ONLY thing that he has is $250k and it is for the next 2 years, and then maybe after 2 years he would resume having $1k per month of disposable income, then maybe he should still consider the three categories of lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  The default position might be to put 1/3 into each category, but given where we are at, we might want to put 70% to 80% of that in right now and divide the other 20% to 30% into allocations for DCA and/or buying on dips.  So yeah, people are going to have more options when they have $250k in hand versus if they might ONLY have $1k per month of disposable/discretionary income, then they don't really have any choice to lump sum invest.

I find it a bit disingenuine to presume away some of the main problems that normal people have and that is that they do not tend to have much lump sum or other investments upon which they can draw.  Sure I am more than willing to work with you in regards to the hypotheticals in which guys have lump sums available to them, even though they very likely to  be way less representative of the actual circumstances of real people and real members of this forum.  

I have also frequently been accused of being too elitist because I tend to want to focus on $100 per week as a starting investment allocation into bitcoin, when many forum members are saying that they are struggling to put together $10 per week in order to invest into bitcoin and still be able to not be pushing themselves too much, and yeah I agree that many of those guys who are not even able to figure out ways to get at least $10 per week into bitcoin, they are likely not going to end up getting to western level fuck you status on any near time scenarios, yet if their investment timelines are long enough, they still may well be able to get to fuck you status in their own locations and very much improve their living and their options even if they do not quite make it to entry-level fuck you status.

We do not have to actually get to entry level fuck you status in order to have our lives greatly improved by investing into bitcoin and delaying some of our gratifications, if we are able to accomplish such.  Perhaps even with a long enough time horizon the guys struggling to put together $10 per week for investing into bitcoin, with a long enough time horizon they still might make it to western level fuck you status including possibilities that they might be able to cut more to their expenses (or more importantly increase their income).  Most likely an overwhelming number of normal people never really get to fuck you status and even in their retirement they greatly suffer from difficulties with whatever income sources that they might have.. so just making it to fuck you status is surely an accomplishment, but also if someone starts out from zero and they end up getting portfolios that are more than 21 milllion satoshis or even 1-2 BTC or more, they still may well end up greatly empowered from that even if they might have timelines that are 20-40 years into the future, and those are not unusual timelines for people to have when it comes to investing.

Look you and i have been in bitcoin for 10 years, and many times, you have claimed that you are willing to work many more years, but if we might have had 10-20 years of investing experience prior to getting into bitcoin, then someone who is brand new to bitcoin, may welll have 30-40 years of investment life in front of him, which could end up accomplishing a lot in terms of the benefits of being involved in bitcoin as compared to not being involved in bitcoin, especially if he iis able to continue to build his investment portfolio, even if it might be seeming to be small amounts.. and don't get me wrong, I am not advocating whimpy investing into bitcoin, rather I tend to advocate to be as aggressive that you are able to be without devolving into gambling or otherwise putting yourself in risks of getting yourself reckt (or failing/refusing to continue to preserve and build your BTC investment portfolio.. even if it seems slowly and maybe you are ONLY increasing your stash by 10 or 20 thousand satoshis at a time).

Usually my dangles come at the end, rather than in the beginning.

I will have to make a mental note.

No more "in"s in the beginning.,.. even if I am starting out by saying "in the beginning,"  I should figure out another way to say it.


You frequently come up with various theories in regards to "how can I stay as whimpy as possible," which is likely one of the reasons that you only have 20 coins and continue to fail/refuse to recognize and appreciate bitcoin's ongoingly immature status.

Maybe you keep trying to recognize dee cornz as grown up, while failing/refusing to recognize that we are still in early days?

Yeah, sure there are limits in terms of how much bitcoin can grow, so those earliest days were the most explosive because they were starting from zero, so sure maybe we still have tapering of the explosive possibilities, yet there is more money and participants coming into bitcoin at the same time.  

I heard the same dumbass assertions about bitcoin at various points in the last 10-ish years, which yeah, maybe people are not directly saying it, but they are presuming a kind of maturity and forgetting about exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles... the TA dweebs have the same problems and the ones who are trying to focus too much on supposed macro relationships also have the same problems (you likely fit in the second camp rather than the first).. many times seeming to be distracted by comparing various stocks and macro trends, etc etc etc.

Don't get me wrong, we are both likely pretty damned conservative in our ways of investing, but you are even more conservative than me based on your seemingly ongoing and persistent distractions into macro factors and thus discounting the paradigm shifting power of bitcoin and the fact that we are still real earliy in terms of the various adopters.. .think about it, sure there are institutions and governments involved in bitcoin and there are even individuals involved, and some of us earlier bitcoin adopters are hoarding and overly accumulating bitcoin (such as Michael Saylor and MSTR, and Saylor is not even that early of an adopter even though he will make it through a whole cycle this year).


You are not completely wrong, but people still can ONLY do what they can do.  I frequently suggest for people to be as aggressively as they can in their BTC investment without ending up getting themselves reckt, and some people are not going to get into bitcoin unless they DCA into it, so if that means that they ONLY start with $100 per week, then that's their choice... and other people do not have lump sum amounts available, so they ONLY have the choice of DCA.

The more I write this response, the madder you are making me, because I doubt that the ONLY goal is to get rich, but also to stop getting so poor, and if people are already either not saving very much or not used to saving because they know that their cash is losing value, so they are not incentivized to save in cash or to invest into assets that are debased by cash.  

So why are you poo-pooing on the guy who invests whatever he can even if it is a small amount on a regular basis, and yeah in 2013/2014, we did not realize that $10 per week would result in $5,330 invested and 4.66 BTC, and part of the reason that I am suggesting $100 per week instead of $10 per week because $10 per week is hardly even anything, but if that is all that a person is able to invest, even now, they are going to need to do what they can.

In 10 years, there are still going to be people coming into bitcoin for the first time, and some of those folks might have already known about bitcoin since today, but they failed/refused to act, but they are still going to benefit from getting into bitcoin rather than not getting into it, even if they might be investing at somewhere between $250k and $500k per BTC, and yeah maybe a good number of them will have to be thinking in terms of buying satoshis rather than planning on getting whole BTC... but the whole society is likely going to be better too, so even those who are not directly benefitting as much by buying bitcoin, they are still going to benefit from the implementation of more fair money.


The rich are going to continue to have advantages over the poor, but if you had not realized that one of the advantages of a sly and round about way of transferring wealth is that the less informed are not going to realize that their wealth is being transferred to them, and therefore some of the current status quo poor are going to end up gaining a lot of advantages over the current status quo rich.

Maybe an example is warranted?

Status quo poor begins his investment today with $10 per week, and after 6 months moves to $100 per week and maybe is able to figure out how to get up to $200-$300 per week over the next 10 years, so maybe after 10 years, he invests close to $100k into bitcoin and he is able to accumulate nearly 2 BTC.  

If the status quo rich (or at least well to do) refuses to get involved in bitcoin, and maybe only starts to recognize bitcoin after 10 years, then the status quo poor might have gained some ground on him, and surely the status quo poor who invested in bitcoin is going to pass up a lot of the folks who did not get involved in bitcoin, even if 2 bitcoin is not quite yet getting him to western standards of entry-level fuck you status, and maybe the status quo poor guy might have to spend another 5-10 years to accumulate another 0.5 BTC, but he may well end up making it to entry-level fuck you status, even in western standards, and he surely has a much better chance of getting to entry-level fuck you status or even higher by investing into bitcoin rather than not... even if he only ends up getting up to 1 BTC instead of my description of his getting up to 2.5 BTC.. but I was also trying to show an example of a status quo poor person who is consistent, persistent, aggressive and maybe even just maniacally focused on BTC accumulation but also attempting to manage his situation in such a way that he lessens the odds of losing coins, too.


But we are talking about bitcoin here.. so fuck off with your macro and/or traditional investment distractions.  Sure, I am not against them, but they just are not very relevant to this thread... it is almost like you are getting into shitcoinery.. even though surely there can be some placement of those kind of investments into an investment portfolio, especially maybe once one has spent some time accumulating bitcoin (for the sake of diversification and blah blah blah), but really we are talking about bitcoin here so pumping traditional investments seems off topic, a distraction and probably not even advisable.

For example, let's go back to the newbie investor, as you seem to be o.k. with talking about newbies, and suggesting that a newbie is not going to get anywhere by trickling money into bitcoin, and so that is even more true if he fucks around with traditional investments or even dilutes his bitcoin investment by getting distracted into various traditional investments.

There is no reason that the newbie cannot build his bitcoin investment for several years before any diversification would even be necessary or justifiable... and I am not sure exactly what level of income that we might suggest that if the guy might have an income of $2k per month, so sure he is relatively poor in western standards, and maybe he has expenses of $1,400, so he has $600 left over.. and if he chooses to invest $100 per week into bitcoin (that is nearly 20% of his income) and then he can build his emergency fund with the other $200 per month, and he can go like this for several years, and if each year he ends up investing a bit more than $5k after 4-5 years he would have had invested close to 1 years salary/ expenses, and maybe at that point he might decide to start to diversify.  I don't see any reason to diversify earlier than that, even though surely guys are going to make these decisions at different points, and maybe some guys (including uie-pooie) think it is necessary to diversify after merely having a few months of expenses/income of an investment portfolio.


Yes I can.

We are talking about whimpy in regards to his investment to bitcoin, and the topic of this thread is about bitcoin, so it is not necessarily derrogatory to say someone took a more whimpy appproach to bitcoin and other took a more aggressive approach to bitcoin, and the rest of what he did happens to be his own choices, but in regards to bitcoin (which is the topic of this thread) he had been either whimpy, aggressive or some state in between.

Why the fuck should we care if he is a whimpy or aggressive investor?  That does not matter.  We are talking about bitcoin?  Aren't you talking about bitcoin?  This is not the how to invest your money and get rich thread.  This is the what do you think about bitcoin and other topics thread (not shitcoins or trying to pump other products.. including Phil's earlier pumping of Ibonds.. fuck ibonds).


It does not matter.   This is NOT the how do you get your best portfolio performance thread... I mean holy fucking shit Biodom, you have been here pumping things other than bitcoin for nearly 10 years and you still have not figured out some ways to try to stay somewhat focused on bitcoin?

You want to do some compare contrast of other things that might have beaten bitcoin?  Sure maybe that is somewhat relevant if it is presented in non-pumping and non-distracting way, but doesn't it get us away from our topic, even if you might be all hot and bothered about various other "opportunities" that might exist in the investment world.

It does not sound healthy to assume something that might not happen.  There is no guarantee that our local bottom is not already in with $38,505 already being reached.

Don't get me wrong, but I might ONLY put breaking below our current low as slightly more than 50%.. and sure maybe I could grant you 60% for the sake of argument, but jeez, that still leaves 40% that it won't happen.

You might have sold and/or shorted too early and too much.. Alternatively you might have failed refused to buy back... so sucks to be you if you are putting high odds on something that is quite far from being certain...and the most painful path might be for BTC to go shooting up and to force close (reck) a boat load of shorters.


Yeah, I am sure that there is not enough demand for BTC... so yeah probably good not to prepare too much for UPpity.

Well each of us has to decide how much we are ready, willing and able to put into bitcoin, so even if the amount that you put into bitcoin is not very much, at least if you are taking some action, then you are likely in a better position than those folks who have not even gotten started. 

And, yeah of course, there are no guarantees, and we do need to have some cash reserves, but ONLY up to a certain point our cash reserves are likely not holding their value very well, as compared to bitcoin.. even though there are no guarantees, there should be some recognition and appreciation for bitcoin's asymmetric upside bet opportunity, so even if you might consider 10% to be too high, then maybe you could consider 1%.. which hopefully is not too whimpy...sometimes if the investment amount is too low, then it might hardly even make a difference, even though something is better than nothing, especially when it comes to the idea of making sure that each of us should get off of zero and likely have at least 1% allocated to it.. even if we do not have a lot of confidence in it... but we also have to figure out how to hold our bitcoin privately too, once they get up to a certain value. .maybe $500 or $1k or more... I know that these threshold consideration kinds of numbers will vary from person to person.

You are not wrong to suggest that 3 months might be a sufficient size for an emergency fund for someone with a relatively strong cashflow (income), yet I have been doing these kinds of things for years and years, and I probably have had relatively strong cashflows since the late 90s.. yet prior to that, I had periods of more inconsistencies in my cashflows.. nonetheless, even with strong cashflows, things can come up, especially the more complicated that we might start to get into pushing aggressiveness in our investments (including BTC), and so the more aggressive and purposeful that we are, the more that we likely need to plan the various ways in which we might end up having to dip into our reserves, our emergency fund and our float might get depleted, so then there would be priorities regarding which ones to dip into first, so the longer that we are investing, the more likely that we have more and more sources of value that we can dip into,

and when we have more places that we can dip into, then some of those various sources can end up serving as emergency funds, so then a question might come about which one is most liquid in the event that some kind of an event happens in which we need cash that is paid in a certain kind of way (most likely dollars or fiat, and even if we might have the debt payable in bitcoin, it is still likely denominated in terms of how many dollars it is worth to settle the matter.. such as our roof caving in or our getting run over by a bus, or some family member suffering a sudden illness or accident or the crashing of the personal car that is used to earn income and to keep our job.. or whatever).  We cannot always realize how quickly that liquidity could end up drying up.. and if we had wanted to make sure that our money was working for us rather than being under our mattress, we might have to think about how fast we can withdraw from accounts 1, 2 and 3 in order to satisfy our debt, whether it is due right away or if some of the bills are coming in over the next 30, 60 and 90 days.   

And, some folks mentioned parents, and sure it could be true that family members could be part of our emergency fund, but some of those funds could dry up too.. so that is one of the difficult balances with emergency funds that likely are not really needed to the full extent, but when they actually are needed, they could end up saving us from financial ruin... because who would want to spend 3-4 years or more investing in bitcoin, and then end up having to start over.

Even if we go by your forum registration date $crypto$, you have close to as much time registered on the forum as me, so it is quite possible that you have had some decent abilities to both build your bitcoin holdings, but also to even get your holdings to be in decent profits, even if you might have had made several mistakes along the way, but would you want to end up having to cash out of large percentages of your BTC holdings merely because you failed refused to make sure that you have 6 months of various kinds of funds rather than settling upon 3 month bare minimum kinds of standards.   

By the way, I realize that if you might have several years worth of income invested into BTC or that your BTC holdings has appreciated to several years of income, then you likely could be in a better position to ONLY hold a 3 months emergency fund because the other 3 months could come from your BTC holdings and even if the BTC price dropped below $30k during such emergency, your holdings are in sufficient profits... but let's say for example, your emergency had occurred in late 2022 and BTC prices were bouncing between $15,479 and $17,500 for a couple of months, so even if you had a few years worth of income saved up in bitcoin it could be quite damaging to your BTC holdings to have had been forced to sell 3 months or so of the value of your BTC holdings during that time, and it could well end up being the case that you might never be able to get those BTC back for anything close to the price that you ended up selling them.


Your own situation shows part of the problem of having non-emergencies in which you are drawing from your emergency fund, so you are using your emergency fund as a float and/or as a reserve.

Another problem is that a guy who might have monthly expenses that are $1k and income that is $800 to $1,800 with most months having $1,200 of income, it could take him 5 months to replenish the $1k that used from his emergency fund.. because look, a 3 month emergency fund should be able to cover 3 months of expenses, which in this case is $3k.  the reason that it may well end up taking 5 months to replenish an emergency fund is that because in the scenario that I point out, many times we only have a fraction of our monthly expenses that we could set aside, so just to get up to a 3 month emergency fund it could take us a year, depending on our cash and your expenses situation and maybe we can increase our income and decrease our expenses so that we can build up (or replenish) our emergency fund faster.   

So another thing is having the $3k emergency fund, but also to have float and reserves, so most likely you are never dipping into your emergency fund absent some real emergency and you are likely going to avoid emergencies because you have float and reserves....

Maybe another point is that many of us might think that we are doing so much better than normal people who ONLY have floats of 2-4 weeks, so they hardly even maintain an emergency fund, and they might not even have any investments; however, we want to improve our condition, we likely need to make sure that we do not engage in risky behaviors that is going to put us exactly back in the place that most normal people operate - that is without investments and without any kind of meaningful emergency funds, float and/or reserves.


Of course new ATH is not guaranteed, but surely seems quite possible and probable and something that we could invest into bitcoin because we consider bitcoin to be an asymmetric bet to the upside.

Another thing is that $170k by November seems to be pushing it, and that would ONLY be a 3 year cycle from the previous ATH. 

Sure $170k is possible for his year and also $500k or more is possible for 2025, yet none of these are guaranteed, but any of us who are buying bitcoin now should try to figure out if we are doing enough in our current BTC buying efforts, and also to have some plans regarding how we might deal with a variety of possible scenarios which include at least the following in the next 1-2 years

1) that BTC prices do not go up from here  ($49,048 is our high for the next two years).

2) BTC prices go up but do not breach $69k

3) BTC prices go up to somewhere between $69k and $120k

4) BTC prices go up to somewhere between $120k and $200k 

5) BTC prices go up to somewhere between $200k and $500k

6) BTC prices go up to somewhere between $500k and $1.2 million

7) BTC prices go up to somewhere higher than 1.2 million

Any of those scenarios are possible, yet they have varying levels of probability (in which each of us is going to assign differing probabilities), and any of us should be able to keep in mind the various possible scenarios and to assign probabilities to them. 

I have not yet made any new assignments of probabilities for this cycle, even though I had done so in the past... for both upside and downside scenarios and in regards to both price ranges and also timelines, and even if low probability scenarios end up playing out (in accordance with our own projection of probabilities), there is no reason that we should not have some level of preparation for BTC prices to go in either direction.


It can be a bit frustrating to have relatively smart people to be advising about how to manage the bitcoin investment situation, and even to be engaged in such advice in a fairly forceful way because they looked into the matter.  I specifically recall several conversations with a person who I had employed as a kind of consultant, and I was consulting the person in some related ways but not specifically financial, even though the person found out about my finances, so several times, I had to tell such consultant that they are trying to advise me about an area in which they do not seem to have enough information and have not studied even close to as much time as I had studied it. 

I acknowledged that I might not be correct about my approach or even the price direction that BTC is ultimately going to end up taking, but I also asserted that I had invested with money that I do not need for the next many years (and maybe I will never need the money because it was extra discretionary money that I had used), but the person insisted and continued to study bitcoin, but mostly would come back to me with various mainstream talking points rather than really understanding what bitcoin is/was.. and even when I said that I was wasting my time engaging with the person and I would try to explain, the person continued to remind me on a periodic basis.. especially during 2015 when my portfolio was at its worst.. the most in the negative that it ever had been.

I did not really hear from the person in 2017 when BTC prices shot up and largely went 78x higher than the 2015 prices, and even when BTC "crashed" in 2018, the prices were still mostly 16x higher (or more than that) than they had been in 2015, so it is kind of crazy how matters end up playing out.

By the way, I am not suggesting to completely ignore other people because sometimes it is good to engage with other people and to get varying perspectives about the world or about our investment choices, but at the same time, we likely have to figure out our own ways to balance our level of exposure (to bitcoin or to any other investment) to consider if we are not using funds that we actually need in the short-to-medium term and also realizing that there could be scenarios in which we end up losing most if not all of our investment, even though we should also be accounting for those kinds of negative scenarios too. 

And, so I am not even claiming that in 2015 I knew which way BTC prices were going to go, even though I tried to prepare for a variety of scenarios, and so I had even considered that it could well end up being that bitcoin would have a around a $3k to $5k top in the next cycle, but I did not really know how long it would take to get there or even if it would actually get there, so when the BTC price ended up shooting through $3k to $5k in 2017 and going up to $19,666, I did continue to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up, but I did not sell large portions, and I have no regret about that even though surely there could be ways to make more money when there ends up being more than a 80% price correction.. but we do not necessarily know that more than 80% price correction is going to end up happening or when or if it might keep correcting even beyond more than 80%.


That is not true.

Grayscale has clients, so their BTC holdings need to reflect their client's holdings.  Sure Grayscale does own some of its own shares, but it is not even close to the the number that you are giving..  so Grayscale only has discretion in regards to it's own shares, not the shares that are held by their clients.


They do not need to replenish their holdings.  Their BTC needs to reflect the hodings of their clients... so yeah they are losing clients, but they are still making fees on whatever clients remain.


Doesn't likely matter as much as you seem to be making it out to matter.  There are various ETF's that are going to need to buy bitcoin, and even if there are periods in which GBTC sales are higher than the other ETFs, so net outflow rather than net inflow, it seems to be that mostly the ETFs are both creating net inflows and also that there is going to be ongoing continuously more demand for bitcoin in the coming months and years because the ETFs open bitcoin to a lot more possible clients who would otherwise not buy BTC directly.


Again, does not matter that much  in the whole scheme of things, even though you are repeating yourself, so you seem to believe that it matters.  Maybe you need to step away for a while rather than getting worked up about stuff that does not matter very much in the whole scheme of things.


Markets are also moved down by more selling than buying and they are moved up by more buying than selling, and some of those kinds of movements do not come from whales.  In other words, there are all kinds of places in which bitcoins are sourced, and there are ONLY 21 million coins, and some folks are not selling at these prices, so the various new entrants into bitcoin are going to want to get their coins from somewhere, and good luck with that.  Good thing that there is a lot of FUD out there keeping normies from buying BTC and even contributing to some of the normies to sell  some of the coins they have with expectations to possibly buy back lower, which they may or may not have any luck in being able to accomplish. Hopefully you are not selling and expecting to buy back lower? or overly holding off buying because you believe that BTC price may well be going lower?  Yeah, they might go lower and they might not...


Hopefully you figure out for yourself what to do.   Grayscale is operating a business so they might sell some of their own shares and they might not.  I am not sure if the reports are clear about that, but if clients sell their shares, Grayscale has no choice but to sell the same amount of BTC that back those shares.   And those clients might get into BTC in some other avenue (such as a ETF or even buy directly)  or they might not.  But it also could take several days between the selling on grayscale and the buying in some other ETF... that seems to be part of the dynamics of "in cash" redemptions rather than "in kind" redemptions.. not that any of that should matter very much either in terms of any of us who are accumulating bitcoin and potentially having more opportunities to stack more sats to the extent that we are not scared away based on these kinds of likely temporary dynamics.

By the way, we have not even bounced out of the don't wake me up zone which is $35k to $55k, and so I am not sure why anyone would be caught off guard by a wee bit of BTC price correction of a mere 21.5% downity , especially after we had experienced a 81% UPpity since mid October. 

In the scheme of things we are likely in quite positive places even if you are hearing about various nonsense doom and gloom talking points.

He might have considered completely wiping his trust (both negative and positive) as the right thing to do, and your own position (or assertions, or whinings) may not have played much of a role in his decision, except perhaps reminding him that he should consider whether to wipe his trust or to just leave it in its latest state.  

To me, it seems that he could have gone either way in regards to whether to completely wipe it or to wipe parts of it, and maybe if I am second guessing him, then it may have been better for him to have had wiped it once he had announced that he was purposefully leaving the forum based on his own assessment of his short-time line left in this world...

On the other hand, if he had not announced anything in regards to his leaving, then maybe the better thing would have had been to just let the trust list stay in its then current state-of-affairs...

There is another theory that maybe you, Timelord2067, bullied him (alternatively the squeaky wheel gets the oil theory) into doing something that he probably should not have had done, and even though you are claiming to have had an influence on what he did, none of us can really completely know anyhow, even if o_e_l_e_o (Leo) were to make one more post explaining why he ended up choosing to completely wiped his trust list..

By the way, I had personally considered adding o_e_l_e_o to my own trust list, but surely now that he had wiped his trust list, my adding him would have no effect beyond symbolic, since at some point theymos may well end up locking o_e_l_e_o's account in the same kind of way that he had locked Satoshi and Lauda's accounts.

I do find it persuasive to either add or to remove someone from your own trustlist in order to counter-act some of what might have had happened in the members trustlist, but sometimes our information ends up being somewhat incomplete in terms of feeling comfortable to be able to make some of these kinds of judgements about trustlist adjustments from time to time.

You are not really pointing out any place that is contradictory and/or confusing, except maybe you are making it confusing in your own way of clarifying and confusing at the same time (a unique franky1 talent... hahahahha).

1) I think that any business should have goals to maximize their profits, and surely if they have gotten themselves into somewhat of a financial pickle, then they could engage in a variety of tactics that involve both selling some of their own GBTC shares, but also keeping the fees up on everyone still brings in way more fees (even with a so far bleed off of 21.5% of their funds - if we use your numbers).

2) I am not clear exactly how many shares of the 138k BTC would have had been Grayscale's, and maybe it is not even close to 50k BTC that they have sold, but others are selling their own GBTC shares and so then Grayscale has to sell the underlying bitcoin when such sales happen from their various clients.

I am pretty sure that there were already estimates that GBTC would end up losing around 25% of its holdings in a fairly short period of time once the competitive products were offered, so it is almost as if we are in the ballpark of that earlier estimate, and maybe it ends up getting up to 30% to 40% of the total AUM lost, in the next 3-4 months, that is still not going to be any kind of major catastrophe for Grayscale, and they likely are still doing better by keeping their fees at 1.5% for the whole year, or maybe they will reduce them at some point later down the road, but they may well still be better off to do a more gradual reduction in their fees rather than engaging in the race to the bottom that the newbie entrants seemed to have had tried to inspire, in which Grayscale likely does not need to play that game, even though they are getting a lot of negative press in the last 2-3 weeks.

It would be nice to get updates when members start these kinds of threads, and it might not even matter so much if they make some mistakes along the way, yet it seems that part of the problem is that members who make these kinds of threads have hardly any staying power and probably they end up selling or discontinuing their buying.  I know people like this in real life too.. they have no ability to stick with something, even something as powerful as bitcoin.

I recall a thread in which one of the members had stopped some of his snaking, and he even had several follow ups and would have had been getting close to $100 per week invested into bitcoin, but he was doing that in 2021 when the BTC price went up and then down and then up and then back down as we know, and if guys were heavily enthusiastic in 2021, their holdings would have been in the negative for a large portion of 2022, and maybe even through most of 2023; however, at the same time, there would have had been a lot of fortune to continue to accumulate during those DOWNity periods, and perhaps even ended up bringing down their average cost per BTC.. and sure maybe even some mistakes would have happened along the way and maybe even ending up with relatively higher costs per BTC because of mistakes and maybe not buying during certain weeks that the BTC price was low (and depressing), but at the same time, a guy who started investing $100 per week in to bitcoin in the beginning of 2021 would have invested $15,700 and would have had accumulated 0.5524 BTC (current value of $23.3k-ish)... so that person would surely be in a good position right now in terms of both profits and also in terms of having a decent quantity of BTC accumulated, even though there would have been decently extensive periods of time in which such same person would have had his BTC portfolio in the negative.