Mining contract costs (@ $4.7/BTC) ~$3,055 and (guesstimating and not assuming difficulty increase) pays out $3027.50 assuming no inefficiencies or fees. However, assuming a 20% increase over standard rates (which is certainly not unheard of, and it probably wouldn't be difficult for experienced folks to get significantly higher), revenues should be ~$3,633 at the end of contract assuming no price change in exchange rate (which is.... lol). $578 profit over a bit over 3 months (off the top of my head, will guesstimate that as 3.3 months). $175.15 profit/month, or a bit under 6% MPR.
I dont think its wise to assume a 120% PPS return over this long a period (seems questionable gpumax will be able to maintain those high lease prices indefinitely) and at the same time assume difficulty will remain constant - its been going up steadily for the past 4 months, and all the FPGA goodies, not to mention mega botnets, are only just coming online.
Not as risky as putting your money on bitcoinica, but a big gamble nonetheless. I hope the buyer knows what he is doing.
P4man, as we have seen before:
1. Difficulty does not rise forever.
2. The price is going down, and difficultly lags, but follows the price.
3. GPUMAX will not be doing 35% shares forever, they will be back to 100% soon.
4. Goat pays 116%.
5. There is also luck involved over time at pools.
6. He got a 10% discount on the contract to current PPS.
Thanks for your input.
Best,
gigavps
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