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221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 06, 2015, 10:51:01 AM
Your opinion is mostly worthless at this point, so I'm not sure why you create so much noise instead of solutions?

Why do you post comments on github commits, are you making code commits? Seems pretentious.
What evidence exists to show that you're less pretensions and create more solutions vs noise than cypherdoc?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/34prd6/i_made_a_3d_printed_stainless_steel_bitcoin/cqy2eoc
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/34zj70/fincen_fines_ripple_labs_inc_in_first_civil/cqzta5c

I took the time to design a countermeasure to one form of attack on the network and then put up fifteen bitcoins as a bounty to fund a proof of concept.

What have you done to make the network safer recently?
222  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 06, 2015, 04:11:06 AM
Hmm. It seems to be a variation of Mises' "Calculation problem" and individuals trying to know better than markets.
Without working price discovery, the function that relates supply with demand is a random function.

That's why the number of full nodes appears to have no correlation with the number of Bitcoin users, number of transactions, or any other intuitive metric.

Until the price discovery problem is solved, we have no reason to assume the function will become non-random.
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 06, 2015, 01:16:36 AM
even though node quantity declines, (but the decline should eventually be arrested by a growing ecosystem, and increasing price).

Here's a quote from an essay I'm using as a source for my next article about Bitcoin economics. See if you can spot the parallel between this example and the number of nodes in the Bitcoin network:

https://mises.org/library/why-nazism-was-socialism-and-why-socialism-totalitarian

Quote
In the face of the combination of price controls and shortages, the effect of a decrease in the supply of an item is not, as it would be in a free market, to raise its price and increase its profitability, thereby operating to stop the decrease in supply, or reverse it if it has gone too far. Price control prohibits the rise in price and thus the increase in profitability. At the same time, the shortages caused by price controls prevent increases in supply from reducing price and profitability. When there is a shortage, the effect of an increase in supply is merely a reduction in the severity of the shortage. Only when the shortage is totally eliminated does an increase in supply necessitate a decrease in price and bring about a decrease in profitability.

As a result, the combination of price controls and shortages makes possible random movements of supply without any effect on price and profitability. In this situation, the production of the most trivial and unimportant goods, even pet rocks, can be expanded at the expense of the production of the most urgently needed and important goods, such as life-saving medicines, with no effect on the price or profitability of either good. Price controls would prevent the production of the medicines from becoming more profitable as their supply decreased, while a shortage even of pet rocks prevented their production from becoming less profitable as their supply increased.
224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 06, 2015, 12:39:00 AM
Maybe the entire point of Ripple was to show bitcoin's superiority to the idea of "modernizing" the traditional money system.
I'll just leave this here...

If FinCEN loses they say "hmm well now we know" and there is absolute no consequence.  Even the cost of the trial was simply paid for by taxpayers (including Mike indirectly). If Mike loses they judicial system could take everything he owns, include his freedom for the next thirty years.  Not really worth it.

Imagine we played a game of poker and if you win I have to say "I was wrong" in public, if I win you get executed.  Now you are 80% sure you can beat me in poker, everyone says you have a very sold game.  Would you play?  How about if you were 99.9% sure?
Everybody thought I was exaggerating. "It's no problem - we'll talk to the regulators and do what it takes to become compliant like a good citizens and everything will be fine," they said.

Future Bitcoin services need to be run as if they are illegal enterprises, like Silk Road, even if what they are doing is apparently legal.

Why:
  • Laws change.
  • Regulations are vague and open-ended, and it's probably impossible to operate a business without accidentally violating one.
  • Even if you do manage to operate without violating any rule law enforcement agencies do not always limit themselves to the letter of the law when deciding to begin an enforcement action.
  • Governments are not the only threats to a successful business. Non-governmental organized crime is almost equally capable of extortion.

The solution is to run all services in the darknet, not tied to any physical location or legal jurisdiction, and without any explicit connection to a real-life identity.
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 05, 2015, 03:53:23 PM

Justus laid out a structure.  There are a great number of missing pieces between what exists today in the consensus code and that structure.  There are also undefined and missing elements in the ecosystem.  I like the structure too, but we aren't anywhere close to it yet and it won't be soon.

The current proposal is Gavin's most reasonable one yet.  He dropped the assumptions about the future, took out most of the guesswork, and is implementing the method satoshi offered when the antispam 1mb limit was created in 0.3 or so.

More would be great, and future proof would be even better, no limit best....  but... remember, we are still in beta.  The pieces to do any of that are not written, tested, integrated, accepted and secured.

Bitcoin is still a baby.  So as eager as we all are to get there, we will get there by baby steps or end up not getting at all.  There are a great many looking for us to fail (check the short interest lately?) we help that failure by over-extending what can be done.

20mb gives us some room to build more of the missing pieces.  Its enough for now.

I can't have said it better, really.

I'm aware that bitcoin development is quite peculiar and there's little to no margin for errors.
And this is the reason why I think it's important to start spreading Justus's idea in advance,
because as you rightly said we need a lot of time to get there. So the sooner we start the better.

That said I wonder what are the link you see between the price discovering mechanism sketched by Justus
and the Bitcoin consensus code? I see them as quite unrelated pieces of the system, but maybe I am missing
something obvious.

I'll devote more time to explaining how the price discovery mechanism could be rolled out as an incremental upgrade after I finish with this:

https://github.com/justusranvier/wallet-ratings/tree/2015-1/2015-1
226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 04, 2015, 03:47:03 PM
Far from it. Though I expect each can approach it on their chosen level and interpret it through familiar lens filters, however limiting and distorted that may prove to be.
I assumed you were referring to the Lightning Network method of creating a jobs program for soon-to-unemployed bankers rather than just solving the Bitcoin scalability problem directly.
227  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 04, 2015, 02:15:41 PM
Multiply that by 100M and pretty soon you're making real money.
Here's an example of a money protocol that allowed for "only" 3%/year worth of double spending:

228  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 04, 2015, 01:34:15 PM
I don't think we need the same security model for buying loaves of bread that we use for buying homes,.
Of course you do, once you understand what the security problem is.

The entire job of the Bitcoin network is to make sure that the number of currency units is exactly correct at all times.

There's probably a hundred million loaves of bread sold every day, which represents a hundred million opportunities to improperly expand the currency supply.
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 04, 2015, 12:05:53 AM
Bitcoin is a meta-layer for settlement systems, let's keep the politically-driven social sciences, like "economics", out of it
That sounds like VC doublespeak.

Bitcoin is money.

It's what let markets resistant to politically-driven social sciences.
230  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 04, 2015, 12:02:07 AM
As for bolting JustusNodes onto BTC, it ain't gonna happen.  Such a massive change to the existing social contract is correctly perceived as an attack and will be defended against from the high ground of antifragility.
That's an unwarranted amount of drama and also inaccurate.

The P2P network design is not part of Bitcoin the protocol.

Most likely what would happen is that nodes would support both paying and non-paying connections, and devote more bandwidth to the peers that were willing to pay.

Users would figure out that if they allocated a small budget to their SPV clients, their connections to the network would be more reliable so those who could afford it would do so.

That's all it would take to get started.
231  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 30, 2015, 02:36:36 AM
The comedians are the only ones left who can tell the truth:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/nation-just-hoping-next-president-can-prevent-coun,38512/

Quote
In addition, 87 percent of citizens confirmed that during the next presidential term, they merely hope to occasionally read something about their country in the news that doesn’t leave them feeling ashamed, angry, depressed, or completely mortified.

“It’s pretty simple, really: Just lay out a clear-cut, straightforward plan for a future in which we don’t totally go down in flames on a grand stage, and you’ve got my vote,” said Allison Joyce, a 47-year-old middle school teacher from Bethesda, MD. “Look, I don’t need to be inspired; I don’t need to be assured our future is bright; I don’t need to be told I’m strong and resilient in the face of hardship. Just convince me we can get through the next decade in the least demeaning way possible given all our problems with childhood poverty, gun violence, and people dying because they can’t afford medical treatment. That’s it.”

“That’s seriously all I want from my president going forward,” she added. “Just the faintest of silver linings that I can hold on to while everything else goes down the drain.”

Though they admitted to reporters that no one in the current field of presidential hopefuls seems likely to spare the country much humiliation while its infrastructure crumbles and its reputation is reduced to tatters, most voters expressed optimism that such a candidate will eventually emerge.

“We know what’s in store for America, so if we could elect someone who’s committed to keeping things somewhat tolerable while the whole place goes to hell, that’d be great,” said Seattle-based tax attorney Greg Hudson, 57. “It’s really our best hope at this point. The British Empire kind of just gradually fell by the wayside without too much embarrassment. Maybe we can, too. Who knows, we might still be able to go out with a little bit of class.”

“Then again,” Hudson added, “maybe at this point the best option is to put someone in the White House who will just bite the bullet and get this whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”
232  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Has the NSA already broken bitcoin? on: April 29, 2015, 09:25:37 PM
There's an industry devoted to building machine that break double SHA256 as rapidly and efficiently as possible.

If there's an explotable flaw in SHA256, they'll eventually find it and incorporate it into their products.

Then all the manufactures will copy the technique and the network difficulty will adjust upward to compensate for the attack and things will be right back normal, giving us plenty of time to upgrade the network to a stronger hash function.
233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 29, 2015, 05:41:57 PM
Imagine two competing digital currencies: Bitcoin vs Andolfatto's version of FedCoin, identical except for the monetary policy part (Bitcoin is bitcoin and 1 Fedcoin = 1 USD).  Which would the free market choose?
Depends on how long they take to launch FedCoin and really get it widely deployed.

Rational actors would prefer to hold their funds in the currency with the lowest monetary inflation and only trade into the other one for the time needed to make a purchase.

In 2015 it's within the realm of possibility that some might save in FedCoin instead of Bitcoin.

It would be harder to make that case in 2020 after the third reward halving, however.
234  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 29, 2015, 03:41:54 PM
Poll needs an option for market-set limit
235  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 28, 2015, 11:38:46 PM
We do need to get larger transaction volume capability into Bitcoin before there's a legacy financial system meltdown.

Right now the infrastructure isn't capable of scaling to pick up the slack, and nobody's interested in fixing the resource allocation problem in a comprehensive way such that we could be ready for sudden, massive growth.

Apparently building appcoins based on MMT is more fun, or pays better, or something.
236  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 28, 2015, 06:40:46 PM
then it seems that there is no need to hash the UTXO set into the current block.  we aren't doing that now and it works.
If you put the hash of the UTXO set in the block header, then light clients can obtain a copy of the set from an untrusted source and use the block header to verify that it is correct.
237  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 28, 2015, 06:17:21 PM
don't UTXO sets differ slightly just like the mempools unconfirmed tx's?
No. The state of the Bitcoin ledger as of each Bitcoin block corresponds to exactly one correct UTXO set.
238  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 28, 2015, 04:26:17 PM
I think the security of committed UTXO sets might depend on how they are actually implemented.

Maybe it's better to think of a set of transactions which create unspent outputs.

Each transaction in that set can be accompanied by the hashes needed to prove that it was included in the merkle tree of a particular block.

Each bitcoin block that contains a committed set becomes independently verifiable - almost.

If one accepts that they know the hash of the previous block represents a valid block, then any observer can verify that the next block is a valid transformation of the set of transactions which create unspent outputs without knowing any more history than what is contained in the block itself (and its committed set).

In this model, an attacker can not add false transaction to the set without being detected by any client (light or otherwise) which has managed to obtain a correct set of block headers, otherwise the hashes won't match (unless the attacker can also trivially break SHA256).

Now now we're right back to "if an SPV client can manage to connect to a single peer that will tell it the truth, it can't be fooled".

Because each block + committed set is a self-contained proof, even if an attacker with a majority hashpower produces a chain with longer proof of work any honest node can broadcast the proof that one of the links in the attacker's chain is invalid and therefore the entire branch is invalid.
239  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Was Ross Ulbright framed by the FBI? on: April 28, 2015, 01:28:18 PM
The government does not have all the guns.

The government is made up of people. These people can be litigated against and convicted just like any other people... if it is done the right way.

The law, the courts, and the whole foundation of government - Constitution - is set up so that PEOPLE can litigate against other people who do them wrong.

If a government person (say, police officer) does you wrong, who does the wrong? Is it the government, the office of the police officer, or the man who wears the uniform 8 hours a day? It is always the man, no matter whose orders he might be following. Litigate the man for the wrong he does against you.

Litigate him correctly, and you win his bond money in court, and more if the city is behind ordering him to do the wrong.
I already addressed that.

It has nothing to do with you casting your spell correctly - it's a pure cost/benefit calculation on the part of the government.

They will play along with the charade of accountability exactly as long as it's profitable for them to do so.
240  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Was Ross Ulbright framed by the FBI? on: April 28, 2015, 03:23:52 AM
Of course Ross Ulbricht was framed by the FBI and others, even the whole justice system. But the biggest method that they framed him was to keep him thinking that they had a case against him. So, essentially, he framed himself.

In American law and courts, if Ross had simply fired his attorneys and:
1. Stood as a man in court, present, not representing himself and not being represented;
2. Wished, required and demanded that his accuser come forward, swear or affirm to tell the truth and take the stand so that Ross could cross examine him/her about whatever harm or damage Ross had done to him/her...

... nothing else would have mattered. Why not? Because the plaintiff must appear and get on the stand (if a person demands it man to man), and the plaintiff in Ross's case couldn't appear and get on the stand, because THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (the plaintiff in this case) can't do anything... not swear to tell the truth, not take the stand, not answer questions... nothing, because the plaintiff is paperwork.

If Ross had done this, and had stood his ground and did this clearly under all circumstances, he could have been set free, and demanded his property - computer and bitcoins - be returned to him, and government would have had to do it.

In fact, Ross's time for sentencing is coming up. If he does this even at sentencing, he can get off scott free.

Listen here http://recordings.talkshoe.com/TC-39904/TS-963949.mp3 to see how things work (almost 4 hours audio).

Smiley
This is literally magical thinking.

It's like you believe that legal arguments are some kind spell incantation that has power over people if they are just recited correctly.

The government never "has to" do anything - they have all the guns.

It doesn't matter what you find in the legislation, or in some old copy of Black's Law Dictionary, or whether you write your spell in capital or lower case letters.

To the extent they pretend that the law has any power over them, they do so because maintaining the illusion is more profitable than not.

The instant that changes, they stop.

I understand why believing in magic is more comfortable than accepting that we just live thrall to a well-dressed mafia with a great propaganda arm, but at some point you need to grow up and face reality as it is.
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