Prepare to recycle the $9000 memes.

Wowee, a whole thread with nothing but Legendaries and Heroes actually talking sense.

Bravo gents, I'd merit you all for the actual reputable discussion, but you guys already live on status mountain.

+1 to OP for attempting to squash FUD.

The scenario Tzupy presented resembles the mid-2013 correction in the middle of the bull run from $5 to $1k.

The scenario you are presenting resembles the 2014 capitulation from $1k to $100.

Either scenario is probable. Both are wrong because history may rhyme but doesn't repeat.

Schrodinger's TA.

There is a big difference between 2013/2014 and today. There are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude more of everything: exchanges, market cap, media, alts, regulation, whales, fools.

Previous Bitcoin corrections have largely been driven by amateur speculation. Any whales that existed were early adopters, merchants or exchanges: Lucky, unsavory, or entrepreneurial sons of bitches, more or less.

2017 marked the beginning of true institutional interest and speculation. Prior to this, the market cap was so low, institutions were basically barred entry due to a lack of serious value/supply, regulation, infrastructure and legitimacy. And here we are now in 2018 with futures markets, MSM coverage, regulations on the horizon, congressional hearings, even exchanges on the cusp of appearing legitimate, and much more on the way. Analysts predict the crypto market cap to breach a trillion soon enough in the years to come.

However, this Mt Gox bankruptcy case illustrates the issues institutions face when trying to enter or exit this relatively small crypto market. A $400MM to $2B court-ordered liquidation is no small beans to be sure, but it's a mere drop in the global commodities bucket, especially considering full liquidation will take place over months to years. If Bitcoin really wants to be taken seriously by the big boys, dozens of Mt Goxes need to be able to enter and exit the market at any given time, without the whole market melting down, psychologically or otherwise.

And so 2018 marks a pivot point. Amateur speculators are spooked beyond belief and exiting the market in droves. But I think institutions are just starting to lick their chops and down-right salivate over the opportunity being handed to them. A global commodity that can and will be fiat-regulated, with a deflationary supply that cannot be artificially modified, an immutable public ledger, and unbreakable security if done right, barring any quantum leaps. We all know the technological benefits of Bitcoin are a dream come true for institutions, much more so than for the average Joe Public. Amateur speculators have been dreaming for this moment, the day when institutions take their little pet project seriously.

So what I don't understand is why everyone is suddenly running away, quitting the race, and basically just handing over the reins to the big boys for what is gearing up to be only 15% of December's price?

Because of one Mt Gox? Because of fear of regulation? Because of a crackdown on scammers? Because of fucking Google advertisements?

What gives, people? Isn't this what we were all waiting for?

I'm seeing a lot of talk of a protracted crypto winter like we saw in 2014. Do we honestly think the big boys are going to wait that long?

That's like leaving a massive, meaty pachyderm carcass on the savannah, expecting the lions and vultures will just leave it alone for you through the winter.

Once. I did it once when I was 12 years old. This was pre-internet days; a dial-up BBS meet-up in the 80s.

Wow was that awkward. These guys were NOTHING like I imagined from their online personas. Granted, I was pretty fucking naive.

Some things are just better left imagined.

Please don't feed the bears. If you really believed in Bitcoin, you'd stop perpetuating (or acting on) FUD.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/effects-of-mt-gox-trustees-400-mln-sale-on-bitcoin-market

tl;dr:


Consider instead:

Friends don't let friends trade emotionally. If you really believed in Bitcoin, you'd stop perpetuating (or acting on) FUD.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/effects-of-mt-gox-trustees-400-mln-sale-on-bitcoin-market

tl;dr:


Consider:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbYWhdLO43Q

For every turd of FUD out there, there's some unicorn sherbet just waiting to be dispensed...

TURD: US Congressional Hearings: "Bitcoin is a Crock for Men in Pajamas!"
SHERBERT:
 - Congress is actually talking about us? Who cares about the actual verbal diarrhea coming out their congressional gobholes... By merely talking about us, they further legitimize crypto.
 - As an aside, does Sherman really believe that men in pajamas don't also fruckin trade stocks, options, real estate, derivatives and precious metals while telling their wives they'll be millionaires one day? What an idiot.

TURD: Mt Gox Trustee market sells BTC and BCH
SHERBERT:
 - Goxees are actually receiving settlements?! Wowee. How much of that will come right back into crypto? Kobayashi may be an idiot, and a short-lived one at that, but the fact that Bitcoin has appreciated so frucking much that the trustee only needed to liquidate 15% of the recovered stash to pay back ALL the creditors' claims is a miracle in and of itself. That's not exactly how the story ended with Bernie Madoff's clients. This fact is being WAY under-reported. I can't believe the market is focused so much more on slippage instead of Bitcoin's incredible asset appreciation since then. The real idiots in this story are the judge and creditors who insisted on being paid back in fiat-equivalent at the time of Gox's collapse instead of Bitcoin, just because the price of BTC continued to collapse post-Mt Gox. Oh ye of little faith, careful what you ask for and now eat your frucking cake!
 - BTC dominance 42% and rising!
 - BCH $600 hahaha

TURD: Google and Facebook ban crypto ads
SHERBET:
 - Fruck the ICOs, Shitecoins, Exchanges, and Scammers!!!!
 - Bitcoin dominance 42% and rising!

TURD: Bitcoin searches trending down
SHERBERT:
 - Dude, who really needs to search for Bitcoin now that it's being reported daily on CNBC, NPR, WSJ, Twitter, newsfeeds, etc etc? Everyone who's anyone with any interest or the means to delve into Bitcoin at this point in the adoption curve has already done so. They don't need to search for it anymore. They're already in it. To me, the fact that search trends spike and then fall off means that action has already been taken. When was the last time you googled "how to buy Bitcoin"?

TURD: Regulation Fears Driving Bitcoin Down
SHERBERT:
 - By choosing to regulate Bitcoin, governments further recognize its legitimacy and are forced to shine light on the benefits to society. Nobody sane wants Bitcoin, fiat, gold or anything else to fund terrorism or money-laundering, and the more Bitcoin is associated with the shadowy underworld, the more negative attention and regulation it will bring upon us. Bitcoin may have started on the backs of drug-dealers, but the crypto lot must also prove it can clean up well and be presentable at their parents' holiday dinner.

TURD: Bitcoin is no longer profitable for miners
SHERBERT:
 - HAHAHAHA.

I'm sure we all have a little sherbert to dispense...

This should be huge news, if it weren't drowning in a sea of speculation FUD.

Once we tag bottom, hopefully fundamentals and technical improvements such as these will once again take center stage and carry us to the next ATH.

As painful as this correction has been, it really is helping to purge all the blind speculation, ICOs, useless forks and other scams.

This is still my favorite TeraBeara chart from a year ago. According to her long-term prognostications, we should be around $800 right now. Hey, only 1 order of magnitude off!

Accordingly, if Tera believes we'll hit $3,000 this year, maybe we'll hit $30,000 instead! 

I mean no ill-will, Tera. We've needed a few PermaBears to round out all the PermaBulls, and I've appreciated you reining in the troops' lofty expectations at times.

But life can't be all doom and gloom. We need hope, too, and I hope you find yours.

As soul-crushing as it feels for the price to capriciously fluctuate $2-3,000 from one day to the next:

I am still incredulous the price hasn't tested below $5,000 even ONCE since we sliced through it like butter five months ago.

The daily 200MA is still RISING and currently sits at ~$9,000.  Hell, the 100MA is only now flattening out just over $12,000!

The market has more or less ABSORBED all these Mt Gox mega-dookies, like a thirsty sponge, averaging +/-$10,000 for much of the time.

At least this time, once we finally pass $10,000 for the last time and eventually hit a new ATH, HODLers will feel like they frucking EARNED it.

 

Really? Ok, maybe my mammalian brain is just pattern-seeking...


4H candles (Jan - Present)

The symmetry of this beast is astonishing...

So far.


4H candles

Dear Papa,

There was resistance as expected at the 100EMA, but we made our way across no man's land from the 200EMA as quickly as I'd hoped in my last letter to mama. For three days, our unit made daily raids over the wall, only to retreat and regroup by night. If we can HODL the line today, it will mark the first full day in 35 days we've spent north of the 100EMA wall.

I can smell fear in the bears' musk. They are nervous and anxious. Some of the shorter units are getting squeezed out by our long lines. It won't be long before they fully retreat. Reinforcements are preparing to swoop in behind us and shore up the wall, so hopefully this is the last time we retreat this deeply. We are winning over the hearts and minds of institutions and citizens alike. Soon, no tyrannical government will be able to resist us. We answer to a higher calling.

Tell Mama it won't be long before I'm home to celebrate another ATH. Perhaps when the spring tulips are in full bloom again.

Your battle-hardened son,


The Full Saga:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2905720.new#new

Dear Papa,

There was resistance as expected at the 100EMA, but we made our way across no man's land from the 200EMA as quickly as I'd hoped in my last letter to mama. For three days, our unit made daily raids over the wall, only to retreat and regroup by night. If we can HODL the line today, it will mark the first full day in 35 days we've spent north of the 100EMA wall.

I can smell fear in the bears' musk. They are nervous and anxious. Some of the shorter units are getting squeezed out by our long lines. It won't be long before they fully retreat. Reinforcements are preparing to swoop in behind us and shore up the wall, so hopefully this is the last time we retreat this deeply. We are winning over the hearts and minds of institutions and citizens alike. Soon, no tyrannical government will be able to resist us. We answer to a higher calling.

Tell Mama it won't be long before I'm home to celebrate another ATH. Perhaps when the spring tulips are in full bloom again.

Your battle-hardened son,

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2020
$320k Aug 2020
$640k Feb 2021
$1.28MM Aug 2021

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

edit: skipped a year

Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.

Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.

For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.

Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.

$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders. 

Go Bitcoin Go!



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2834180.msg29061043

Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.

Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.

For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.

Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.

$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders. 

Go Bitcoin Go!