I would imagine that sometimes people might not be doing very proper accounting when they are generally putting various kinds of properties into boxes, because many times they will fit in both categories, and sometimes they will have more outweighing on one side versus the other, and that is not necessarily determined by its category but instead determined by the specifics of that particular piece of property.  If you have a house, but you also have a loan against the house, you likely have some ideas of its present valuation, and you project its future valuation based on certain attributes of the house including location, but there could be aspect of your maintenance and/or your improvements along the way or things that happen with the surrounding houses that affect its value.   If you are planning on living in the house for 30 years or more, then maybe you might not care about all of the details, even though you could well be affected by valuations at various points in terms of your paying off your loan or if you want to get further loans against it, and surely taxes can be affected by both valuation and by location.. and the same is true with decisions regarding whether to insure it and how much to insure it for, which also costs money with physical assets, and even if you choose not to insure it, then you are engaging in a kind of self-insurance and/or gambling that may or may not be justifiable. 

We also cannot always know if it ends up being a good place to put your value, since the house's physicality surely has liablity attributes to it, especially if after a few years, you want to move, or need to move to another location, then surely the house might be considered a liability - especially on a short timeline the market value might not have had ended up moving in your favor.


Sure there can be a lot of advantages in having the non-physicality of a digital asset, and that seems to be a considerable advantage of bitcoin over gold, even though many times you hear the gold bugs arguing the opposite, and for sure,  not all digital assets are the same either, so there could be some pretty shitty digitial assets, but there can be some decently shitty digital assets that are pumped in the short-term and may even have decently long periods of outperforming the dollar and perhaps even outperforming a large number of traditional investment assets, yet there are still going to be needs to exercise some precautions in terms of how to valuate digital assets outside of bitcoin.


It seems that any of us who have identified bitcoin as a great place to put our money are going to be handsomely rewarded for such, yet like you suggest, we still  have to consider our allocations, and it would be a bit much to keep all of our value in just this one asset, even if we recognize it as a great place to be.

Sometimes where we are, where we want to be and where we end up getting to can be quite different questions, since the situation regarding how to focus will partly depend upon from where we are starting, and if we come to bitcoin and we already have a bunch of other assets (and cash) and even debt, we may well want to increase our exposure to bitcoin, but we still might not suddenly change it, but instead weigh some of the pluses and minuses of having those other forms of assets, cash and debt and figure out how to include bitcoin into the mix and to increase our allocation into bitcoin - and frequently with bitcoin newbies, I will suggest trying to figure out some kind of a way to target 5% to 25% into bitcoin, and even if such newbie figures out his/her own particular target and then reaches it within 6 months to a year, the story may well not be over in terms of either needs to reassess if a new target might be needed or some new practice in the event that bitcoin's performance might well end up skewing the bitcoin investment to the upside, so then there could come questions about reallocating, if BTC might end up growing in value way faster than the other assets/currencies that are held.   

In late 2014, I had thought that a 10% allocation in bitcoin was good enough, but since BTC prices stayed so low during 2015, I ended up getting up to 13.5% allocation into bitcoin, but then bitcoin's growth after that had caused my allocation to get into the upper 80%s drop back to the mid 40%s and currently I may well be around 75% or something like that, but there can be questions about whether to reallocate or not or to let your winners ride (such as bitcoin, if it happens again?) and those might not be easy decisions to make in terms of how much of your wealth you might have into bitcoin and how you ended up getting it there (by investing into it or did it come through BTC price appreciation that ended up playing out way greater than your other assets).

Each of us has to make these various kinds of allocation decisions, and hopefully we are not rushing into such decisions, even though sometimes we might feel that we need to make reallocation decision and carry them out, and we could have some timeline pressures (or guidelines) that we set upon ourselves when we are making changes and how we go about employing such changes that we deem to be appropriate to our situation.

I suppose ongoing reduction of the 2021 dates provides some concrete evidence of BTC prices bouncing around mostly in the top of the range, so in that sense, we are doing pretty good in terms of already having so many 2024 dates in the top 100.

At the same time, the best case scenario would still take 75-ish days to push all of the remaining 2021 dates out of the top 100.... and currently, on the surface, there seems to be a bit of a dilemma about our going (or returning to) UPpity.. even though in bitcoinlandia, we already can recognize / appreciate that there have been many times that price direction can end up playing out fairly quickly which then can frequently have a contagious effect upon sentiment, too.. which is a kind of snowballing effect.

Surely there are folks that believe that such UPpity movement and sentiment cannot play out in the summer, since bitcoin has had quite a bit of ties to liquidity - yet personally, I hate to restrict my own speculations in regards to what can end up happening, whether within the realms of expectations or not.

I am not sure if I understand this, because there could be rules that say that you cannot bet more than one of the categories, but if you are going to hedge, you might bet within the same category.  Sometimes I get confused about a potential dilutive effect of hedging, but it might not necessarily be a problem, but still you might want to have some limits such as 2 bets per category per user per day.. or some variation of that.

And if someone loses his whole bank of fictional WO merits (maybe the WO merits should be called something else - like bet merits or WO bet merits?  - WO BMs, for short.. hahahahahaha.. if you know what BM might mean?), then maybe there could be a way to earn them back.. but you would not want them to be too easily available.. so maybe it could be something quite conservative, like the activity points.. 1 per day as long as your balance is lower than 100 or something like that... which would mean that the most you could earn back would be 100.. but then that might cause participants not to fear going to zero since they could just earn them back 1 WO merit at a time per day.. .. I don't know.. I am not that attached to the earn back idea.


No problem..  Here, I just added the date to my already "wise" projection of UP.

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100.2024-05-13


Oh gawd, Biodom.. .    

Why do you have a tendency towards prematurity?  

I don't see how investment vehicles that cause more avenues to get into bitcoin is going to cause BTC prices to go up less  per year, especially when they are settled in BTC.. Now if they were settled in dollars, that would be another matter.  Yeah retail buyers have to use dollars to buy and sell BTC, but the ETFs have to back up those buys with actual BTC.. they cannot fake it..

Now if somehow the ETFs are faking the BTC that are backing up the shares that they are selling, then that might be a different story, but we do not have evidence of their faking the BTC perhaps beyond the delayed time in which they might have to make sure that they have the quantity of BTC that the shares reflect.. so sure there could be days involved with the making sure that they have the cornz that they claim to have, but it is not fractional reserve system, as far as I understand the situation to be.

Regarding your overall concern.  Did you realize that BTC prices do not just go straight up at all times?

Did you realize that if we use the March 13 ($73,794) top, then BTC prices went up nearly 5x since November 2022? and also nearly than 3x since October 2023?.. .

yeah, yeah, yeah, they corrected back down 23.5% to $56,500.. but even right now as I type this post, we are not at $56,500, we are at $61,111 which is around 8% higher than $56,500 and sure it is still around 17% lower than $73,794, but who cares?  You should already recognize and appreciate that these kinds of corrections are not unusual in bitcoinlandia, and surely we mayw well even consider BTC price actions to be quite ongoingly good since we have been having a lot of ongoing attacks on bitcoin self-custody and related hostilities, so the BTC price continues to do quite well in spite of these kinds of ongoing hostilities - which might cause some of us to hope that some of the attacks might cause some Streisand effects (but that might be too wishful in my own thinking?).

Well, if you are thinking about buying bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer, then even if you don't have a lot of capital, you are still going to be ahead of a lot of the scared cats and/or the folks who are failing/refusing to take actions.  So there likely are going to continue to be people who are just coming into bitcoin through the years, and to the extent that you are able, then you should be glad to have had spent time stacking sats prior to the around 99% of the world's population who have failed/refused to stack sats.. and they will likely have to get started later, perhaps after you have already been engaged in such stacking for several years prior to them.

So, yeah, in the end, each of us our responsible for our own levels of stacking and/or failure/refusal to stack in some cases.


I suppose will see how it plays out, since one of the issues could be that if you talk about the various rules, then we might need a spot to reference back to (which usually would be OP).  So in this case, would there be one post that has all of the rules, so maybe like CB's explanation there could be a link to the rules, each time that you post the results that is contained in the post.. and so even if you add or subtract rules, then there would be a way to refer back to them.

I am again wondering how your script is going to differentiate earlier dates, so if I am citing myself, then does that mean that I am placing the same bet.. and maybe it would be good that we would have to put the date in there....

You said that we started with 1,000 WO merits, and if I won 133 then why would I have 1,233? rather than 1,133?   There seems to be something wrong with the maths.  

Below is my new bet (wish me luck... 50/50-ish.. and maybe with a slight tinge of possible favoritism in my own theory.. in the ballpark of 55/45).. and I feel like I should be placing the date inside of my bet to distinguish this bet from my prior one, since you are not going to stop folks from citing themselves or citing the bets of others... but what do I know?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

By the way, I was kind of wondering about being able to bet on all three bet types at once. but you settled that unanswered matter.

The theory that bitcoin might go shooting up to $100k and beyond.. maybe even in the territory of $120k to $180k within this calendar year is a possibility that anyone investing into bitcoin should account for, and the mere fact that any of us consider those as possibilities does not mean that we are going to be reckt if such scenarios do not end up playing out.

The same is true on the opposite end when some folks presume that there have to be "ups and downs," and then they overly rely on such ups and downs taking place, then those folks end up getting fucked when they sell too many BTC too soon.  I have seen it many many times during my time in BTC, and at this point, there is no reason to believe that such upward reckenings might mnot continue to take place.

Even recently, our rise from $15,497 to $73,479 in the past 16 months likely took a lot of folks by surprised, and even the latest leg from $26k-ish since October 2023 - likely caught quite a few folks by surprised who had been expecting larger corrections along the way, and yeah, sure such larger corrections might end up happening prior to bitcoin getting to $100k, but they also might not.  The overreliance goes in both directions, including those folks who believe up and downs have to happen, and then they don't happen as much as they speculated that they were going to happen and then they end up with too few BTC because of their actually acting on those kinds of ideas.

It surely might not matter one way or the other if some one who is a  long term investor and/or holder believe the BTC price might go up to $120k to $180k this year and supra $250k in 2025, and if the price does not go there, then so what, they might not have had any plans on selling anyhow, but can still entertain such ideas.. and sure maybe the problem again could come down to the trader or the guy who overinvests because he is wanting to play short term price waves...

There are ways to set up strategies and even to have opinions about where the BTC price might go that might still not change the strategy, even if the BTC price might not end up going to the expected place.

I am not sure if the thread might become too cluttered, since there is not a new thread for this.  Are you going to publish a table of the betters once a day?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

Thought that wikipedia page points out some decent BTC price movement highlights, it seems to be missing some interesting periods too, such as there were a lot of interesting BTC price movements between 2011 and 2016, but that wikipedia page does not go into very much detail about BTC price movements during those periods.


Yep.. bitcoin spent almost a whole year below $300 and much of that time in the mid-$200s from late 2014 until late 2015.. and so there was quite a bit of pessimism during that time.. yet by the end of 2015 and then into early 2016 and then around May 2016, it started to become more and more clear that mid-$200 or even below $300 would never be seen again.. and maybe it was not until around April/May or a bit later when it was realized that sub $500 prices would not be seen again. 

And, yeah, none of these are matters of certainty, but sometimes when the price passes a certain amount above previous prices and including coming back down to test support and still fails to go down further, there may well develop increased levels of confidence that the lower prices will not be seen again even though surely nothing is 100% sure, including in March 2020, when we ended up getting a surprise revisiting to sub-$4k prices.. so surely there are times in which BTC price will go to surprisingly low levels, even after those prices might have started to seem as tif they might be impossible to reach again.


Yeah, but you don't know, do you?  You cannot act as if it is impossible for BTC to go up 35% higher than its current (or previous) ATH without any kind of a hiccup, especially if there had already been price consolidations in areas around the current and/or previous ATH.


It is called consolidation.  Bitcoin is not in a "stable" status, even if you might be lulled into believing that it is.


That is not saying hardly anything.. yes price is staying the same because the number of buyers are equal to the number of sellers...

Oh gawd.. what a meaningless observation.


What you going to do at $100k?  Sell?

Good luck with that. You will probably need it, if that happens to be your plan.


You are planning to sell too?

You believe that doubling is good profits?

Good luck with that kind of thinking (and presentation of the matter).

Yes... And if you are actually thinking about bitcoin for the long term, such as 4-10 years or longer, then your average cost per BTC will not matter so much because you are not planning on selling any time soon.  At the same time, maybe after 6 months, 1 year or 2 years, you might get to a point in which you have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC, and you might start to consider if you might want to attempt to be more strategic in regards to when you buy.. but even sometimes those people who are overly trying to be strategic about their BTC buys, they may well end up with way less BTC because they are spending more time waiting rather than actually buying.  You have to figure out what works for you, and surely there is no turning back the clock if you might have had some opportunities to buy BTC, but if the BTC price does a step ladder kind of a move upwardly, and it does not come back down and then you might be thinking that maybe you should have had bought some rather than waiting..

and sure, you do not have to buy with everything that you have, yet even waiting with some of your value (and holding it aside for  potential dips) is a choice that may or may not be a good idea.. but that also may well depend upon your own situation and sense of satisfaction with the amounts of your buys.  

Even our hypothetical poor person given above, many of the times he ONLY has $100 per month to be able to buy bitcoin, and that is if his discretionary comes in consistently in the regular way, but he is also going to have months that he has extra and other months he does not have enough, so those are reasons to make sure that his reserves and his floats are in a good place (and yeah, of course, I am presuming the emergency funds is also there, but the emergency fund is not being used for the purposes of filling in the variance of income/expenses from month to month). .. so if we assume the guy has all of his finances in order in regards to the reserve and float, that still may well leave him with the $100 per  month and questions about if he should use all of every month for buying BTC or maybe he might want to hold some in reserves.. but even if he had ONLY been buying bitcoin for a year or two, then he might have had only bought $1,200 to $2,400 worth of BTC during that time, so there surely still might not be enough BTC stacked up for him to really feel comfortable in waiting, and it might not even matter so much about the actual BTC price, and maybe he has to wait until he gets to around 4 years or more investing into BTC when he had invested $4,800 or more into BTC when he starts to feel that maybe he can start to become a bit more strategic regarding when to make his BTC purchases... .

and another thing is that investing $4,800 over 4 years, some of those purchases may well be more profitable than others, and maybe it is not ONLY the earliest purchases that are the most profitable, but there might be some recent purchases that are not very profitable, but having all of that in bitcoin, then at least the BTC is there, so that in the next 4 years, you have whatever you had during the first 4 years that had been able to grow completely (as long as you were not fucking around and withdrawing any of it) plus you wil end up having whatever new value that you ended up putting into bitcoin after the second 4 years, so maybe there will be various points in which you are able to increase your disposable income during that time, so maybe after 8 years, you might have more than $9,600 invested into bitcoin.. depending on your own abilities and/or luck in regards to your financial situation and your managing of your circumstances. including managing your bitcoin holdings and including perhaps having some appreciation that it could well end up being that some of your abilities to focus on accumulating BTC in your earlier years ended up giving you more options later down the road, so long as you did not end up losing whatever coins you had accumulated.


That is a bit misleading to say it like that... but yeah, there are various ways to increase your discretionary income by increasing your income, but you can also cut your expenses.. and sure there might be some times that you increase your income, but your expenses might go up too.. as part of the increasing of the income, there could be some costs with whatever ways you figure that you are going to be increasing your income... and so discretionary income is the amount of money that is left over after accounting for expenses.. and .. surely some expenses can also be deferred, even if they might not go away or reduced.. or maybe some expenses have costs for their deferral (such as penalties and interest), and there still could be some value in deferring expenses that might create additional expenses in deferring them... Maybe if you have a job, and there might be opportunties to work extra hours, and they might not even pay more, but they still result in extra pay.. maybe some jobs off of the books, might come up too for someone who is already involved in carrying out certain kinds of work and hearing about other opportunities.


They are not a no coiner if they are buying, even if it is small amounts, and from my definition they might not even be a low coiner, if they are buying $10 per month but it is as much as they can afford.. and they are being as aggressive as they are able to be.


We cannot assume that merely investing $10 per month is NOT overdoing it.   Of course, if they need that $10 per month for their expenses, then they might be overdoing it, because the $10 should be coming from discretionary income and not from money that they actually need.


That is true.. and also maybe the person who bought in 2019 was able to put together $10k of cash in order to invest into bitcoin, and the person in 2024 might even be in a better position to put together more cash, but he cannot put together $60k, and he is ONLY able to put together $20k, so a similarly situated guy in 2024 ends up only able to buy 0.3 BTC rather than being able to buy a whole BTC... not that it matters very much, because we can ONLY buy what we are able to buy, and surely there are fewer and fewer folks who are ever going to be able to accumulate a whole BTC, so they have to target some amount of BTC (sats) that they are able to target within their own budget, and maybe even after 10-20 years, they still might ONLY be able to accumulate a few million satoshis... 50 million satoshis is half of a BTC.


The extent to which you employ DCA, buy dips and/or lump sum methods for BTC accumulation is going to vary based on your individual factors, and truly including how long you have been into bitcoin accumulation, which means how many BTC have you already accumulated and what might be your BTC accumulation targets.  It is not necessarily obvious what might be the best choices, even though each of us should be trying our best to figure out what works for our own situation.


Why would lump sum become "the best?"  Surely if someone has a lump sum in front of them, they can still choose within the three categories of DCA, lump sum and buying on dips in order to figure out how to treat that lump sum amount that they have in front of them... and if someone might have $100 per week that they are usually investing based on their discretionary income, but then all of a sudden they get a $1k bonus, so then they can completely treat that $1k as part of their DCA.. they just buy right away, and maybe that is considered lump sum or it is considered to be just extra money that automatically goes into BTC, whether it is part of the regular income or it happens to be some extra income that happens to come in... ON the other hand, the extra amount could trigger some consideration regarding whether to invest all of it right away, to hold some for buying on dips and or to spread it out in order to include it within the upcoming DCA amounts, perhaps doubling the DCA amounts for the next 10 weeks or maybe even adding 20% to the DCA amounts for the next 50 weeks, and maybe how to treat the extra amount might have to do with how much BTC the person already has, but they might want to try to predict the direction of the BTC price, and so if they are thinking that the price might be coming down or staying flat, they might feel some advantage in spreading out their DCA or strategizing to buy on dips, however, if they are feeling particularly bullish, they might error on the side of buying most if not all of it right away... . And, the guy might end up being correct or not in terms of whatever strategy or strategies he chose to employ for the extra amount of dollars that he had ended up receiving.


Levels of aggressiveness should not be measured in absolute terms, but instead within the amount of discretionary income that you have, and so yeah a person with higher income could buy more BTC but that does not necessarily make him more aggressive than someone with lower income and who might be using all of his discretionary income to buy BTC.  Maybe we can take some extreme examples.

One guy has $100 per month of discretionary income and he uses all of it to buy BTC.. This guy is quite aggressive and maybe even bordering on over aggressiveness (especially if he miscalculates his expenses or if he does not have reserves in place).

Another guy has $2k per month of discretionary income and he invests around $100 per week into bitcoin, which might be considered moderate and maybe even whimpy.


This part is true.  The more organized that you are, the more aggressive you can afford to be... again within the terms of your own discretionary income, and you do not even need a completely stable source of income as long as you have your various back up funds in place... .but you will need some kind of a income that is coming in, even if it might not be stable.  Frequently we had described examples of guys who have varying income levels and varying expenses, so even if his income has a lot of variance, he might still be able to balance out those income/expense matters in order to still be aggressive within his own boundaries.

Shouldn't your 4 be a 6?  You have finished 6 days of pushups, not 4. Right?

Both opinions cannot be correct.  You either buy or you wait, and from my perspective, the ONLY way to prepare for UP is by buying bitcoin.  You do not prepare for UP by waiting.  Waiting is not a strategy that prepares you for up.

Maybe I should give an example?

Hypothetical poor person just found out about bitcoin, and he has an income of about $500 to $1,800 per month, with usual income of about $1k.  His expenses are usually between $700 and $1,200, but most of the time $900.  He has an emergency fund that is about $1k, a reserve fund and float that is around $600.  Right now, with these circumstances, what should he do?  Start buying BTC or wait for a dip that might or might not happen.

He cannot do both.  He has to choose which one is going to.  Right?


Why not learn about bitcoin as you go (like promise444c5 mentioned), and start out with $10 per week - or some other relatively low amount to get started and then figure out other details as you go.. what is the part that you need to learn about that is so important.  No one is saying to invest everything that a person has, whether we are talking about the hypothetical person above that I outlined or if you would like to present some other hypothetical person with circumstances that might justify a "waiting" rather than a getting started right away strategy. 

By the way, I had already mentioned that a variety of things could affect a tweaking of the BTC buying strategy, so I would imagine that a person who is actively involved in buying bitcoin weekly would be striving to spend at least a bit of time to get more in touch with his various finances and psychology (perhaps in line with the 9 factors), and perhaps the organizing of his finances is already going to put him in a much more solid situation and whatever the bitcoin does would be icing on the cake, especially if the timeline for investing might be 4-10 years or longer.

That is not even the same topic, since one question is getting started right away in terms of investing into bitcoin, and then another part would be whether adjustments might be chosen to be taken in regards to buying bitcoin somewhere down the line based on the size of the BTC stash that had been accumulated over the passage of time.

Now, you seem to be changing to some other topic that relates to adjustments to the purchasing times of bitcoin being made based on cashflows and budgeting kinds of considerations like that, which seems to be a different topic from what I had been attempting to describe in terms of getting in, getting started and then reassessing down the road.

Maybe along that same line of the initial considerations, there can be a status of poorness in which someone might be having difficulties figuring out how much discretionary income that he has in order to invest into bitcoin in the first place, so he might want to make sure that he gets through the whole month before buying bitcoin with whatever is extra at the end of the period (so then his new paycheck comes in and he buys bitcoin with whatever was left from the earlier check), but at the same time, if the guy is getting into bitcoin, then it might be more likely that he would also need to figure out his cashflows and his expenses, so even if he might have more difficulties in regards to figuring out his discretionary income levels in the first month or two, he might be able to put systems into place in which he is able to buy every week, even if he gets paid monthly, but he might have to makes sure that he builds up enough of a reserve (and emergency fund) while he is potentially becoming more regular with his BTC buys the might end up being every week.. but yeah, if he is not sure about his cashflows, the solution might be to spread out his buys over longer periods.. yet I tend to be a pretty BIG fan of attempting to get yourself into a situation where you are able to buy bitcoin every week, but yeah, you cannot employ those kinds of practices if you are not even sure if whatever money you have is going to get you through the month (or until your next paycheck)..

I guess I am trying to say get started and learn along the way, and maybe after accumulating BTC for a year or two, there might be some justification to start to adjust the strategy based on how much BTC you have been able to accumulate and based on your other financial matters, and so in some sense, it can be difficult to come straight into an investment (something like BTC) and not take a bit of time to establish a position, and since Wind_FURY was referring to poor people, so for poor people in particular there might not even need to be too many adjustments along the way, just keep buying as aggressively as you are able to without overdoing it... but the thing, even for poor people, there might be some recognition that after a year or two of accumulating BTC, the BTC stash might be starting to get relatively large as compared to other investments (or savings) that might have had previously been done.. .. yet also it could be that the amount put in is still less than the value of the stash, so there could be some variations in regards to how to consider and look at the stash depending on how much had been put in and the extent to which the stash may or may not be in profits... although some folks might get distracted by merely being in profits, so some learning might need to happen in regards to how large of a stash might be considered to be a large enough size in order to start to consider some possibilities of changing strategies that go beyond just continued, ongoing persistent and consistent buying of BTC (perhaps weekly).

I watched the 15-minute clip, and since it is about maths and sciences, then it kind of related to the thread - especially since we might have claims about whether bitcoin was discovered or invented.. .. so there might be some power in any kinds of claims that something is operating in accordance with some mathematical principles that hold constant through other parts of the universe, which there could be some truth  in some aspects of bitcoin

- even though in recent times, I have been hearing more and more about potential ways in which bitcoin might be subjected to breaking based on mining pools rather than miners controlling their hashes and/or the transactions contained theirin.. even though there has not been an attack yet, as far as we know.. .. but yeah, if miners (hashers) are not really being paid in transparent ways and they have nowhere to go, then couldn't we consider various kinds of 51% attacks.. not trying to spread any FUD...


FTFY - regarding contents, and I also fixed your font.. 

No need to yell at us.


What does it mean, though?

I fixed your font again.. to attempt to facilitate MOAR reasonableness.

Generally speaking, people will still tend to consider houses as assets rather than liabilities, and surely there are some kinds of houses that will have higher maintenance costs and/or taxes than others, and surely houses are considered to hold their value better than cars, since cars tend to be a depreciating asset if bought new, but sometimes a used car may hold its value or even gain in value if it is classic or a collector's item, so we still have to be careful if we try to generalize too much in regards to how much some thing that we buy might be considered an asset versus a liability, because something like a yacht could still be considered an asset, even if it costs a lot to maintain, and maybe more if we are putting it into service, but it could generate income too if we were able to rent it out in ways that ended up being profitable and NOT too inconvenient, in the case that we actually were to have a yacht... According to this article Michael Saylor owns two yachts and three houses and a Jet.. so those could be assets, but they are also liabilities in terms of how much maintenance and labor they likely take, even though the article says that Saylor charters out his yachts (or they are available for chartering)..

Maybe it is the angle, but your arms look pretty long.  And yeah those are full pushups which seem to be proper form in terms of straightness of your body, and you may even be pausing a little bit at the top and at the bottom, including that you are getting to something close to a locked arm position at the top, and my own pushups don't quite get to the locked arm position at the top, which seems like it is a bit harder than the version that I am doing, which is slightly less than locked arm position at the top. 

Maybe later I might want to try to do that locked arm position at the top.. yet if I tried to do that now, then I would have to go below 40 pushups per set.... maybe even 20-25 would wear me out in the way that I see that you are doing them... so anyhow for me, I think that I want to stick with my current 40 pushups per set for a while longer (since I ONLY got to this place in the las few days).. maybe I will stick with 40 per set for 2-3 weeks or so longer before I change around what I am currently trying to focus on, which is trying to get my 40 pushups to take me between 60 and 80 seconds to accomplish them.. which I am already having trouble with this.. at least so far ranging between 45 seconds and 57 seconds..and largely I am starting to feel failure around 30, so I have to speed up to get the last 10 in proper form before I totally fail.. that's how it is with this here cat.


I think that you are correct.  On the margins, maybe we might do pushups and maybe not and maybe we will skip a day, and just yesterday, I had already gotten down to my underwear and I had just jumped in bed and I was getting ready to shut off the light, and I recall that I still had one more set of pushups, so I had to get up and go in the other room (my pushup location), and pump out my last set for the day.. .and there were surely several other times, when doing the pushups were not very convenient or something like I was really feeling like doing... ..so I cannot say if I am going to want to keep doing pushups if this thread stops... not to put too much pressure on DirtyKeyboard and his pretty great system.. which might be a lot more work than he had expected.. so we should be grateful that he agreed to do it.. and it is surely coming together quite well... including more members making fewer mistakes in their reports, too.

In traditional investment, it might take someone who saves/invests 10%-25% of his/her salary 30 to 40 years to reach fuck you  status, and they surely might not even be able to make it to such status, but surely investing/saving still may well be better than not saving investing - even though sometimes keeping value in cash might end up having a negative effect if the cash is losing value at a much higher rate than it is being stacked, which frequently could be true.

Surely in bitcoin there seem to be greater chances that investing/saving at similar amounts would have good chances of having much greater payoffs, but it still does not mean that someone who would usually take 30-40 years would be able to reach such point in 10 years, and surely something like $10 per week might not even get a person very far, even in 10 years if it might be less than 1% of their income.. but yeah, putting value in bitcoin is probably going to still be better than nothing, and also relatively modest amounts might end up resulting in fairly decent advantages and options that would not have had existed without investing at all or having had invested in traditional investments rather than into bitcoin.. ..

so there can be a combination of factors that help to ensure that the investment (even if relatively small) will have greater chances of being meaningful over a decently long period of time, such as 10 years or longer, yet I am still suggesting that if someone is really not in a very good place in terms of discretionary income, they still might take way longer than 10 years to get to a place where they are able to transition from still accumulating BTC and maybe into some kind of a spending status.


Whimpy versus aggressive does not have to do with whether you are rich or poor, yet it is probably better to consider the matter of aggressive versus whimpy in terms of how much discretionary income you have and how much of it you dedicate to investing into bitcoin, so an aggressive person would strive towards investing a higher percentage than a whimpy person.  Another thing is that any person could make errors in terms of measuring their finances, so it would be more likely that with a bit of practice, a person with more experience would be able to afford being more aggressive to the extent that s/he has had practice making sure that s/he is accurately measuring his/her finances and including having some systems in place such as emergency fund, reserves and/or float that might help to cushion if any errors were to be made.. so maybe it might be that the experienced person does not make any fewer errors than the newbie, but the experienced person has systems in place that are sufficient to cover any mistakes that might be made.. surely a pretty big error would be not having those kinds of back up funds in the first place, so that any error that ends up happening ends up causing that kind of ill-prepared person to have to dip into his/her bitcoin investment at a time that is not of his complete choosing.

Either poor people or rich people can be badly organized, even though surely, just by the categorization of  being rich, it is more likely that even if the rich person is badly organized, he still might end up having various classifications of funds that can be used to give him options in terms of not getting himself into a position of having to dip into his bitcoin at a time that is other than his own choosing, so it may well end up taking a higher level of lack of organization for such a thing to happen to a rich person as compared to a poor person, so surely part of the point would be for anyone to attempt to have some organization, and surely if you have less to work with (meaning that you are poor), then it is more likely that if you are wanting to try to get ahead and make progress, the more important it would be for you to be organize and to put systems in place that help you to make sure that you do not have to dip into your bitcoin other than times of your own complete and voluntary choosing..


I hate to beat a dead horse even more dead, but you are asking for it.. Wind_FURY.. hahahahahaha

In other words, if you are a newbie to bitcoin.. no  need to wait for any dip..

For a newbie no coiner or low coiner,^** get the fuck started as soon as possible so that you can at least have some bitcoin, and think about price later.. maybe 1-2 years after you have been stacking sats for a while.. and studying about bitcoin and other personal financial management matters along the way... .. but other than that.. it seems that I agree with what you are saying.

**By the way, when I mention low coiner, I am not suggesting that you have to rush to reach your bitcoin accumulation target, since that could take 10-20 years or more, yet a low coiner might be someone who is purposefully investing into bitcoin in a whimpy way, so there may be some need to increase your level of investment into bitcoin, which might be facilitated just by buying bitcoin regularly and studying into bitcoin further in order to gain confidence and then to potentially have some abilities to increase BTC accumulation aggressiveness in the direction of being less whimpy.

Of course, I see that you are mostly just responding to satscraper, yet as a courtesy, it is probably best to keep your responses fairly succinct in threads like this (and maybe OP should have created this one as a self-moderated thread, but did not).. I did see that in the last couple of days you guys have created a Ringwallet forum thread (also not self-moderated), which also is receiving some pushback and skepticism, and I have not looked at any of that thread in detail (even though it is so far a short thread, and not that I am any kind of a technical expert), yet it might be a bit early in terms of coming to too many conclusions if the product (or products) is not quite in a released stage.. but still good to refer folks to either that thread that you guys created or some other locations that might answer the questions.

Your framework is not very good, and sure it is possible that BTC could never hit $100k, but it is also possible that it could it $100k within a week, so then the devil in the details would be what kind of odds there might be for various scenarios to play out.

Your focus on pure numbers seems to be out of line in terms of your own potential lack of understanding regarding how bitcoin price could move based on low liquidity, which means that if there are a lot of people wanting to buy bitcoin, but they cannot find any one to sell them bitcoin, then they have to go to the exchanges, and some of the exchanges can run out of bitcoin, including that it might not be easy for some folks who might want to move their bitcoin onto exchanges to accomplish such, so what do you believe will happen to the BTC price in those circumstances?

Historically, we have many examples of BTC prices multiplying greatly in price in a relatively short period of time, and sure sometimes it will end up correcting back down to earlier prices, and sometimes the bitcoin price is breaking new territory and other times, it is merely recovering back to prices in which it had been previously, so really if you think about the matter, since the end of February, the BTC price moved from the lower $50ks and into the $60ks and higher and has not really gone back into the $50ks since then (not for very long periods of time).  Yeah, sure it can go back into the $50k, but it does not have to go back into the $50ks.. and personally, I don't really want to get so much caught up in regards to what bitcoin might or might not do, except for merely put into question the weakness in your own framing of $100k as if it were some kind of a difficult object to achieve.. and by the way think about $10k in 2017.. . .there surely was a lot of feelings about $10k being impossible too at around that time, and there were so many folks either cashing out prior to BTC's price reaching $1k in early 2017 or late 2016 or they were cashing out at various points between $1k and $5k. ..

so there was a bit of outrageousness in terms of the BTC price going up to nearly 20k at the end of 2017 that had been considered to be beyond the realm of possible, and so even though the upper $1x,xxx prices were not sustained during that time, and within months we mostly corrected back below $10k for most of 2018-2020, there is still a certain amount of awe that takes place with such BTC price movements and even considering how buy support does end up catching up and then certain lower prices are no longer feasible, so there could be correction now, yet there may well have had been enough time that bitcoin has hung out in this supra $60k price territory that it may well end up being ready, willing and able to go through another UPpity leg and perhaps even never coming back down to these prices.

I am also frequently reminded of the time in which BTC price largely doubled from 2015 to early 2016, and for much of early 2016, the BTC price was stuck around $425, and there were so many proclamations that $500 would never be reached again, and that remained true until it was no longer true (which ended up being the end of May 2016), and so the price went past $500 and then it ended up correcting back down to $500-ish when Bitfinex was "hacked" in August 2016.. but the BTC price continued to go up, and there were ongoing claims (including from supposed experts) that lasted into early 2017 (including in March 2017) that BTC prices had to go back to $500-ish.. and that also ended up NOT being true.. so there are a lot of supposed experts proclaiming limitations upon bitcoin's UPpity potentialities, and good luck to you Jewan420 if you really believe such nonsense in regards to trying to consider bitcoin to be as limited as you seem to believe that it is.

Yeah of course, there are no guarantees and we have no real way of knowing if BTC is going to continue to go up, but the fact of the matter is that bitcoin is about 1,000x or more more valuable than gold, and in terms of bitcoin's market cap to gold, bitcoin is around 1/10th the size of gold, so there is around 10,000x more price potential for bitcoin, even though it could take 50-200 years or more to get there, and sure it might not even get there, but those kinds of considerations regarding bitcoin's price potential should not be overlooked in regards to making sure that you get some kind of a meaningful position in bitcoin, and even if you are poo-pooing it, to be careful in regards to your framing limitations that you seem to hardly even understand what you are talking about just spouting out random numbers as if they were difficult to obtain merely because they sound BIG, relatively speaking.


I think that one of the most guaranteed things in bitcoin is its ongoing volatility, while at the same time not even knowing which direction.. .so I think that it is good to invest with ideas that maybe it will go up and maybe it won't, but to figure out a position size that is comfortable, that includes considering that there are some maybe it will go up scenarios that are also realistic and they are quite bullish, even if they may or may not happen, as long as you do not leverage your position (or bet with margins) the most that you can lose is 100% of what you invested, so in that sense it is good to figure out how much you want to put in and to keep the volatility in mind in terms of being one of the most likely ongoing phenomena that is going to continue to exist in bitcoin... and by the way, when the greatest wealth transfer that the world has ever witnessed is taking place right in front of us, we should not expect the ones on the losing end of that wealth transfer to give up without a fight, which may also involve taking casualties. so be careful not to become a casualty... and try to be on the receiving end if you are able to and as much that you are able to be.

Whether we get another pump or not should not even matter very much.  We have already gotten a pump from $27k to our present price, so there should be nothing to be complaining about.

Surely there could be more pump down the road (such as 6-12 months from now), or a pump could be impending, too.

I suppose that part of the punchline is that each of us has to decide our own course of action in light of our own details, and even you blckhawk, have just passed your 7th year registered on the forum (congratulations), and if you have been accumulating bitcoin through the whole time, then you should be in a pretty decent place, and perhaps even in a better place if you were able to front load your investment into bitcoin prior to 2021... but even as reflected in our current BTC price, we can see in retrospect that surely there have been a lot of good times for buying BTC in the past 7 years that would have had prices quite a bit lower than our current prices (or even the prices of the last 2.5 months).


Yep.. people get too impatient about short-term price moves and sometimes even develop over-expectations about bitcoin's price performance, yet many times we are going to realize that bitcoin is going to do what it is going to do, and surely there might be downward manipulations, and some of that might well even go into the future, so we cannot really be assured about where the BTC price is going to go, yet we can still come to appreciate that the most that we are going to lose is 100% of what we invested, so if we feel that we need to take some value off of the table rather than continuing to invest, then we can make those kinds of choices.. .. yet at the same time, there can be some value in making sure that you have enough bitcoin too.. . even if we are not guaranteed in regards to where it is going to go...


You sound like a lost little puppy.

If you compare last year's spot price at this time to this year at this time, we have around a 2x price appreciation.  It should be difficult to see any problem with that.


Maybe we will and maybe we won't.

I personally think that there are decent odds of ranging between $120k and $180k this year, but if it doesn't happen, so what?  There is no need to have to have BTC price performance levels that you believe have decently good odds of playing out.

The future is not guaranteed, and we should constantly be making sure that our own finances and psychology is in a place in which we are ready, willing and able to accept how the future plays out, even if it plays out in ways that are outside of our base expectations and might even end up playing out in ways that we considered to have been less likely.


There is a lot that is happening besides what you list, so the halvening was already expected to happen, and your list is not even accurate or hardly explaining anything that might be related to price.. The fee issues have been going on for nearly 15 months with ordinal inscriptions and then the latest with runes that were introduced right at the halvening.. but that fad seems to be fading including that fees seem to be somewhat coming back to normal in the less than 20 sats per vbyte territory.. and even quite a few blocks getting back down to as low as 12 sats per vbyte.. and sure the various high fees has had some effects on behaviors of individual BTC holders being able to transact or considering if they are able to transact, perceptions in the BTC transaction market and perhaps even contributing towards miner incentives in terms of how they are structuring blocks and maybe even engaging in some outside of regular transaction channel receipt of value.. .which we have been hearing quite a bit lately about how mining pools have their own problems in terms of how they pay the hash contributors (ie miners).

But I doubt that the mere transaction issues are affecting price as much as the more availability of ways to buy BTC through spot ETFs and also the various recent regulatory attacks on aspects of bitcoin (and even shitcoins to the extent that some of that might also relate to bitcoin).

But if we are talking about actual short term BTC price, we cannot always know the causes or even get too much caught up in trying to figure it out, unless we are just so lacking in our understanding and/or conviction in regards to bitcoin so that we should be adjusting our BTC position in the downwardly direction because we lack any kind of meaningful conviction, so we should have that reflect in the amount of BTC price exposure that we have. So in that sense @Sexylizzy2813, you may well be overly exposed in your bitcoin position. so sell some in order that you feel better and you are less worried about whether it goes up or down.. but hey, I can already see if you sell some then you are going to be upset that you did not have enough when it went up.. you are the kind of person who is never going to be satisfied.

By the way, any of us who are potentially more informed and/or convicted about bitcoin (does not mean that we are correct), recognize and appreciate that an overwhelming majority of the worlds population (perhaps close to 99%) are still way underexposed to bitcoin as either being no coiners or low coiners..  So the "problem" of the world, to the extent that we might label it as a problem is that members of the population do not have enough BTC, and so any of us who already have BTC, we are likely at least in a bit better position than the no coiners and the low coiners, to the extent that we are not a low coiner ourselves, which surely anyone who is accumulating BTC as aggressively as he can without overdoing it, should not be considered as a low coiner (from my perspective), even if s/he perceives himself/herself to not have enough coins.  From my perspective, low coiner status comes from having the ability to accumulate more BTC, but purposefully being overly whimpy in such approach to BTC accumulation due to lack of conviction or lack of carrying out sufficient/adequate due diligence in regards to looking into the bitcoin matter... In this definition (my own), shitcoiners might well also be classified as low coiners because whatever behaviors they are employing results in quite lower levels of BTC accumulation than they should have if they were more properly focused on the right kinds of things (namely bitcoin)...


I saw the BTC price go up in the last year.. and even in the last 8 months, since we had a correction in August 2023, but then pretty much straight up until the middle of March 2024.. so then BIG SO FUCKING WHAT that we happen to be in the midst of a correction currently, and in reality it has ONLY gotten to about 23.5% so far.. which is NOT even that big of a correction.. and so what it has lasted nearly 2 months.. Maybe it is over and maybe not.  We cannot really know, and we should not be getting too worked up about short term BTC price movements, including that we should set our own systems up so that we can deal with whatever price movements happen to come, even if they are unexpected... .

And, sure, you personally can do whatever, you like, including complaining in various threads of this forum. .which largely makes you look like a whiner rather than someone who actually has any real meaningful substantive value to add in terms of helping other members to figure out ways forward that rise to the level of not whining about matters that may well be outside of our control anyhow.

In other words, there seems to be way more value in attempting to deal with BTC price dynamics matters in terms of how they are actually playing out rather than whining about how we wished they would be playing out differently... but hey whatever, you do you.. whine away...and surely members are likely to get irritated with you (including yours truly), but it is not likely to get you banned from the forum, since your way of posting comes off as mostly annoying rather than anything else.. whether you are doing it on purpose or not.. who knows?

Perhaps the best that other forum members can do is attempt to have fun with your ongoing seemingly whiny nonsense, rather than allowing such behaviors to cause too much annoyance.   


There is nothing wrong with having some negative feelings about bitcoin and even pessimism in regards to how much it might go up in the future or how BIG of an investment a guy should take into bitcoin, especially since one of the best remedies to having some negative views about bitcoin, or its future possibilities, is to adjust your buy position downwardly or to stop buying.

At the same time, you may well end up having regrets about your choices to become whimpy in terms of your bitcoin investment, and those are individual choices, including that we can choose our level of aggressiveness in regards to either shooting for some target, how we get there and what the target actually is.

Between about 2014 and 2020, I used to suggest a BTC position between 1% and 10%, and since 2020, I have largely been recommending 5% to 25%, but even with those kinds of recommendations (sort of as a starting allocation target), individuals are responsible for their own allocation, including if they are allocating on the lower end of the spectrum or on the more aggressive end of the spectrum, including choosing to get the fuck off zero, which still tends to be a problem of the overwhelming number of folks... so yeah, if there are hesitations just adjust a bit downwardly, and hopefully you do not end up having too many regrets later, yet none of us should end up having regrets as long as we are striving to tailor our own bitcoin approach to our own circumstances, so that we should be able to feel comfortable and even good about our balancing of choices, since no matter what we do, it is likely not going to be perfect, but it can be pretty damned close to perfect in terms of tailoring to our own self and hoping that we don't end up being too wrong about matters.

By the way, I mention 5% to 25% and there are a lot of ways that can be construed.  It can be your target size of your total investment portfolio or it could be how much you choose to invest from your discretionary income or even from your gross income... but surely some folks hardly even have a discretionary income, so you need to have a discretionary income before you are even able to invest, so if your discretionary income really sucks in terms of how much it is, then either you won't be able to invest into bitcoin or you have to figure out some way to improve your discretionary income by either increasing your income or decreasing your expenses.


Even though I largely agree with your overall point, you come off as a bit of a gambler Barikui1.. but yeah, you are still essentially correct that there are likely some advantage for anyone still new to bitcoin (in their first cycle) to be aggressively accumulating bitcoin (as aggressively as they can without over doing it), even if they are not planning on selling for 4-10 years or more, there still might be some advantages in terms of trying to be more aggressive in the beginning of the BTC investment journey so long as the person otherwise has good financial management that involves establishing and maintaining an emergency fund, reserves and a cash float.. and sure there might be some role of managing debt in the mix of that, too.

Sometimes we throw out some of the various terms without really putting them in a very good context in terms of how money might be used and whether it might be considered a productive asset or a consumptive asset, or whether it might appreciate or depreciate in value relative to other assets and/or relative to cash - including that there can be periods of time that some assets or cash perform well, and other times that they do not perform very well.

Of course, something like a house can involve a lot of liabilities in terms of maintenance costs, taxes and other possible fees - including potentially having to insure it because of its physicality - while locations make differences in regards to these matters too, including the kind of neighborhood that it is in that could unexpectedly end up affecting its value in one direction or another based on what others are doing in the neighborhood.

Surely, a house has a utility value that comes from being able to live in it and having some autonomy over it that may well not come from a rental situation, yet at the same time houses do not always go up in value, including problems with macro dynamics that involve bubbles and even sometimes some of the seeming manipulations that might happen in housing - so surely in all cases, we cannot necessarily consider housing to be an appreciating asset or even a desirable asset in some circumstances in which markets might get perverted based on political or economic dynamics.... yet that does not necessarily mean property ownership is not a good thing or that it would not be a good idea to borrow in order to acquire and/or accumulate property... even though there are possibilities of getting burned on it.

We have a lot of examples in recent times in which folks who are not able to get loans might never be able to save enough to buy a house, and similar dynamics have happened historically, and houses might not be the ONLY kind of higher ticket item in which there are advantages to use debt to get it earlier rather than later, even if there could be some ways in which the house might not really be appreciating in value greater than if they money had been invested elsewhere - even with buying a car, there could be some questions about the car being a depreciating asset, yet there could also be ways that the car helps to increase income and/or productivity in such ways that the car mostly ends up paying for itself - which truly is not always the case with all kinds of cars that people buy, including sometimes they buy extra cars that might not have much if any utility value.