Seriously, are you guys not thinking this through? Bitcoin will not be stable at $1 (or any price)! What, do you honestly think that we'll drop to $1 and then, THEN, the manipulator will spend his $200,000 without causing significant volatility? I'm mean, seriously guys, come on.
I'm beginning to think that when some of you say that you want bitcoin to be stable what you mean is that you want its value to constantly go up.
LOL. Good point proudhon. Though I do think we can achieve a stable bitcoin, but ONLY when there is real commercial activity in the bitcoin economy. When people NEED to buy bitcoins to obtain goods or services, we will have real demand. So if the price falls, people will buy a LOT for their needs in the future. That is true stability and we will get there eventually. If we want stability we all need to invest in bitcoin businesses, buy as many goods with bitcoin as we can, and use it as it was intended to be used rather than all this money being pumped into a casino game. If you don't want to use bitcoin, or don't believe that it will be accepted anywhere in the future, there is very little point in trading it. Just liquidate your holdings and give the coins to people who WILL use them properly. |
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I agree with you about the so called neoliberal free markets. My understanding of a truly free market is one in which prices are determined solely by market participants, and not by external forces. Is the manipulator not a participant in the market, albeit a big one?
Without people 'manipulating' the price like this, we would have an even MORE volatile market which is not desirable. No day-traded market ONLY obeys supply and demand, this is a fallacy and it cannot exist. The price is determined by psychological factors, the general sentiment of the market participants, and modulated by the forces of S&D - sometimes quite weakly.
It would seem to me also that he does indeed have competitors, those who want to sell and force the price down. There is plenty of evidence of this competition from last night. We have seen on several occasions his walls getting eaten alive. He takes significant risk with those walls, and sometimes it doesn't pay off.
The bitcoin market is as free as you are going to get. If people are capable of manipulating it, they are free to try. But if that is not what the rest of the market participants want, they will fail.
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Great work kjlimo. Very interesting to learn that the majority of those wallets are inactive. They could well be wallets belonging to the exchanges. I would bet that many day traders just keep their coins stored on the exchange and don't withdraw many.
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everytime he sets up his huge walls, he puts > 100.000$ at risk. often enough there have been huge sells into his wall, shrinking the worth of his investment dramatically. his "nervous cancel finger" also suggests, that it is no 'ease-cheese lets manipulate with fun!' thing for him. it is probably desperate, dangerous, unfunny and absolutelly not profitable. that is my sentiment.
when it comes to his manipulation of price, experience shows us one thing: his walls disapear. there are ~7200 coins everyday sold into them, and demand (as the SHOULD-HAVE-HAPPENED-DROP yesterday showed) is not balanced with a supply at $2.X.
conclusion: within the next 4 weeks, we are right into the $1.X - his walls did always disappear, regardless how hard he struggled.
the manipulator just has to accept now, that the free market (everyone else exept him) trades/wants-to-trade bitcoins LOWER than 2$.
the faster he accepts this fact, the better for bitcoin. cause that stupid,obvious,trivial trollfacestyle-manipulating serves no purpose but to hurt the free bitcoin markets real balance and exchance. you can see that easily with looking at what happens to the orders after the manipulator pulls up his walls: SILENCE. no orders at all. everyone ignores him. evertime he puts in his walls, he effictively destroys all balanced trading/volume/volatility.
Real Bitcoin Price Equation:
P* = (Demand - manipulation)/ Supply --> clearly lower than 2$ at the moment
I understand all of that, and agree with you for the majority of what you said. But what you are failing to understand when you said that the 'free bitcoin market' wants to trade below $2 is that the manipulators are PART of the free market. They have vested interest and naturally will tend to protect those investments. There is nothing wrong with this, it is a result of the free market itself. Yes his walls have disappeared before, but at this price level it is MUCH cheaper for him to keep those walls up than it used to be. It gets easier and easier for him to manipulate and put up REAL walls as the price falls lower and lower. At the level we are currently at, it is trivial to him considering the amount of fiat profit he has already made. I guess the crux of this argument is whether you think he will hold this time or not. He might, and he might not. But making your judgement about what he might do based on what he did in the past is a sure fire way to get screwed out of a lot of money. |
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since the manipulator once again struggled hard to manipulate the price above $2 i suggest it is just a matter of time until the price goes deeper than $1.
the manipulator can't just make the price not going deeper. in order to reach its real worth, bitcoin has to touch its ground at least once.
i really really really doubt that the manipulators bidwalls at 2$ are anything close to a real bottom. therefore market will beat manipulator. the sooner, the better, than finally bitcoin can be "used" (cause it is no more a manipulator-zombie).
I am not sure why you are cheering for BTC to go below $1. The lower the price, the easier it is for said person to manipulate the price. It requires proportionally less USD holdings or BTC holdings which they have demonstrated they have a significant amount of both. Low priced Bitcoin is actually a bad thing in contrary to what you believe. +1 I don't know how many times this needs to be stated before people will understand. Maybe if we simply it for them: LOW prices = EASY to manipulate HIGH prices = HARD to manipulate Bears... you are NOT going to get bitcoins much cheaper than this. We might see about $1.7, MIGHT, but I think those of you who are waiting for <$1.7 are in for a surprise. There are just too many people now at this stage with a deeply vested-interest in preventing prices going much lower. All they have to do is refuse to sell. If they didn't sell at $32, what makes you think they will panic now at this stage when we are talking about a measly $2? I'd rather lose everything than give coins to people for such a cheap price. Since the manipulators walls are STILL there after what happened yesterday, you all need to just accept this. |
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therefore market will beat manipulator. the sooner, the better, than finally bitcoin can be "used" (cause it is no more a manipulator-zombie).
If you think that people with excessive bitcoin or fiat holdings are going to just stop, you are extremely naive. Market manipulation will continue whether the price is $2, 2c, or $200. It is not the manipulator who is to blame for the lack of utility of bitcoin. People have been single-mindedly focused on using their coins to play the day trading game, rather than investing them in startup businesses or conducting any actual trade with them. That is why the price is going down, not due to market manipulation. We have manipulators operating in all of the worlds markets. The reason they are not as successful as they are with bitcoin is because real world markets are backed up by real world economic activity. There is only so much you can crash the price of real assets before the people who actually NEED them will buy. |
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I wanted to try and assess which is deemed primarily more important to traders here; their fiat or their bitcoins.
If I gave a 'both' option, I think the majority of people would pick that thus muddying the results.
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5:2 in favor of fiat profits so far. Interesting.
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For the currency to have value, someone has to keep BTC on their balance sheet, but consumers can do this better than businesses. A large number of consumers is better able to bear this risk than a handful of small businesses.
Business' contribution is to provide a non-speculative motive for consumers to hold BTC on their balance sheets. There need to be services out there where BTC offers consumers benefits unavailable through the use of cash and credit card. Consumers would then hold BTC because they anticipate future use of these services.
+1 |
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I'm trying to get a feel for why people are day trading bitcoin. So the question is simple - are you trading primarily to profit in coins, fiat or to hedge the fiat value of your original bitcoin investment?
I personally am trading solely to profit in bitcoin. I started originally with the intention of hedging the value of my earnings, but have given up on that. Why? If I wanted to retain fiat purchasing power, I would simply cash out immediately as soon as I received payments and never buy back, or else accept payment only in fiat.
I couldn't care less how much my coins are currently worth in fiat, as long selling at any price will yield more coins for me in the future.
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I like the manipulator, I had him all wrong, he is robbing you fools.
*snip*
I want most of the bitcoin holders to lose money.
*snip*
Someone brought to my attention what the manipulator is all about. He is about taking money from many of the bitcoin buyers, or "suckers/fools".
*snip*
I like this because I do this on Ebay with rare antiques that I collect ... Works like a charm.
*snip*
We are both scamming the system, stealing from the suckers out there. We play on peoples psychology and stupidity.
This post leaves me flabbergasted. I like you Edward, and you did help convince me that there was a manipulator, but what the hell? How did you not realize this sooner? Have you not been 'watching' the manipulator for months and months? I'm slightly disappointed to be honest, for someone who seemed otherwise quite perceptive. It is also rather incongruous that you have been posting this whole time about 'helping' people, yet admit that you want the majority of them to lose money. And you have described the manipulator on several occasions using highly perjorative terms, yet admit to using similar types of tactics on ebay yourself? If so, you should have been more aware of what was happening. Not quite sure how to respond. You are a hilarious enigma. |
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I am an atheist. I believe that "the Manipulator" does not exist. It is a product of your imagination.
Someone with $100 000 and / or 50 000 BTC could easily manipulate the whole market. Are you saying these sorts of people do not exist ? What is it about sarcasm that seems to go over the heads of certain people? |
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Most of those guys holding that amount of bitcoins are idiots in my book. They should have long sold them off when the bitcoin price was above $10.
Makes no sense. There is a buyer at the end of every sale. And big sales like that are usually dumped into the bidwalls of a single individual, meaning large transfers of bitcoin from a large holder to a large buyer. If one of these addresses were to sell those coins, someone else would then be holding them then. Probably a single person. We can't just make them disappear. Also, many of those wallets could belong to the exchanges, bitcoinica, mining pools or e-wallet businesses that hold large amounts of coins for users. In that case, those coins might not belong to any single individual, but are being stored in individual wallets for hundreds or potentially thousands of people. So it is not correct to assume that they are solely bears or bulls, some of those wallets might in fact belong to people who do not necessarily care about the long term outlook, and are simply holding coins for other people and cannot do anything with them. |
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very clearly we would have seen < 2 today if there would not have been mr. supermanipulator funded with 200.000$ cash, setting up insane arbitrary walls.
Yet, there they stand. Just because we 'would have... if', does not make it so unfortunately. Like others have been saying, it is trivially inexpensive to do this. So how can people expect that a 'manipulator' with potentially tens of thousands of coins is going to sit back and let his investments sink lower when he can simply spend a puny few thousand dollars to raise the price each time the water is tested? He has made enough fiat profit to do this for as long as the bears are willing to try. Well, maybe. We will all find out soon enough. |
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I agree with you 100% Jonahan. I honestly look forward to a bitcoin that I can actually use and spend, without worrying about price fluctuations etc.
I see an economic fallacy brewing here (not just in that quote but in the forums generally)... there seems to be a notion that a lower price equals a less volatile price, and thus a lower price means Bitcoin is more easily used in commerce. This is a fallacy and in fact quite the opposite is true. The lower the price of Bitcoin, the more easily it will swing when $X come in search of it, or when $X attempt to exit it. Consider if the price fell to $0.01/btc. By myself, with $10,000, I could buy almost 1/7th of the entire supply of Bitcoin. Of course, acquiring 1/7th of the supply would shoot the price up quite a bit. My $10,000 would seriously hamper all y'all's commerce. Consider the alternative case, if Bitcoins were trading at $1,000 each. My $10,000 purchase then only buys me ten coins and will make no dent in the market price. Even $100,000 could move in and out of the market without much trouble. The point is this: you can make the argument that btc isn't worth $2 each and should be lower, fine. But you cannot make the argument that it ought to be lower so that it can more easily be used in commerce due to volatility issues. Volatility, when short and medium term noise is removed, will be inversely proportional to the Bitcoin price in percentage terms. And again, a $1,000/btc price is exactly as easy to use in commerce as a $1/btc price due to the full divisibility of these things. If you're not using Bitcoins in commerce now, it will not be any "easier" if the price is halved... it will in fact be more problematic and more volatile. And buying one $1 coin is no more difficult than buying two $0.50 coins, or half a $2 coin. Don't let notation distract you! Anyone disagree? +1 Wholeheartadly agree. It's refreshing to read some rational thoughts around these parts. |
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I try to take read all the ideas, then sift out the BS, and compare with available info to make my own predictions. There is so many conflicting arguments in here, you can't just pick one and roll with it. That would be silly!
Lately, all the ideas seem to have been extremely bearish with some prolific loudmouthing going on. There has been very little bullish sentiment around this place for a while. I'm far from a permabul, but it's hard to get a word in edgewise with the lust for cheap coins whipping the bears up into such a frenzy. All I'm saying that if there was ever a time to take advantage of the general consensus, today was it. Everyone was talking with such certainty that we would see <$2, and boasting about their shorting positions. You should never claim to be as certain as some of the people here seemed to be. We might well see <$2 though, and I will be ready to take up appropriate positions - but not without a fight apparently. |
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What you'd have to do is try to predict what they'd do next, not easy...
I have found that doing the opposite of what is said in this subforum usually pays off. Perhaps the 'manipulators' are watching this place like hawks, trying to trade against the general sentiment. Who knows. I am 50% in fiat and 50% in bitcoin right now. That is the best way to deal with uncertainty like this. |
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From the speed Im seeing these walls move I think the manipulator is using some sort of software or bot to move and set up these walls.
Definitely. It wouldn't be difficult to write yourself up a custom script to control and interact with the mtgox API. You could have the script set up your positions and remove them with a single click. Any manipulator worth his salt would be doing something like this. |
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ROFL  |
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