The last thing MagicalTux has said in public IRC to date was:
<MagicalTux> Hrumph, problem is that we still have some pending issues since early 2013 that hinder our communication efforts
From this verified paste (approx 2 days ago):
03:12 <@ne0futur> when I were insisting , telling mark to disclose stuff
03:12 <@ne0futur> saying things like "fuck the lawyers, disclose"
03:12 <@ne0futur> he answered me once
03:13 < shadylog> ne0futur: with...
03:13 <@ne0futur> 2014-02-20 10:40<MagicalTux> le gouv. US veut pas qu'on disclose hein
03:13 <@ne0futur> US gov doesnt want us to disclose
From the (likely real) chat between Jon Fisher and Mark:
[10:58] <JonWickedFire> Is that Crisis Strategy Draft even legit?
[11:04] <MagicalTux> more or less
[11:05] <MagicalTux> as the name suggests it’s a draft, and it’s a bunch of proposals to
deal with the issue at hand, not things that are actually planned and/or done
[12:02] <JonWickedFire> How much did you lose yourself?
[12:04] <MagicalTux> Well, technically speaking it’s not “lost” just yet, just temporarily unavailable
From this news article:
Recent testimonies by federal agencies indicate that the account seizures were in fact related to the multi-year pursuit of Silk Road operators, rather than a crackdown on money transmission infractions for their own sake.
and
Looking backwards, it’s clear why the Silk Road connection couldn’t be noted in any court filings that would become public. If federal agents made known at the time that they were actively pursuing Silk Road it could interfere with their ongoing investigation. This also means that, at least in this case, it appears money transmission laws were enforced on Mt. Gox not simply for their own sake, but to gain insight and hinder the capital flow to Silk Road without exposing the larger goal of shutting down the international narcotics marketplace.
Maybe I'm insane but here's a possibility: A clear link was established between Silk Road and Mt. Gox. Significant portions of the cold wallet are now frozen. (Yes, the US still has a lot of pull in other countries eg Japan. Think Kim Dotcom. Plus Gox is a registered entity in the United States.)
Transaction Malleability did steal a portion of bitcoins, but not the insane 99.7% amount. Gox is now unable to refill their hot wallet due to the seizure. They are now aiming for an acquisition to cover the funds stolen by transaction malleability, however a gag order prevents Gox from disclosing exactly why the funds are missing, hence for the time being they blame it on Transaction Malleability.
Gox likely had a tiered system of "hot wallet", "cold wallet" and "coldest wallet". It's possible the US Gov took control of the "coldest wallet", which would contain the largest amount.
Gox is possibly now working on some type of 3-way full tilt poker style acquisition deal (Gox, new owners, US Gov) which will result in funds being returned plus a drop in pending charges (which could be sealed).
All pure speculation, but I'm curious as to if you guys can think of anything else that ties this theory together?
EDIT:
<!-- insert acq deal here -->
Would also work with the theory of a gag order. If Mark is still in control of the website (which it seems like he is), then there is no way he would put that there by accident. That, is someone trying to get a message out to the community while he's not allowed to. An HTML comment, a 3-letter acronym instead of the full word... sounds like he wants plausible deniability for that 'mistake'.
EDIT2:
From MagicalTux on bitcointalk:
On average 98% of customer bitcoins are held in cold storage
and
Offline wallets are generated from an offline system and kept in paper format in three separate locations
EDIT3:
From MagicalTux on bitcointalk:
Someone asked:
back to JPY....a nightmare for the US to try and enforce anything at all or at least quickly and not always on the friendliest terms with regional neighbors
To which, MagicalTux replied:
Japanese government is friendly to US, and also implements things such as FACTA. Also the US government can pressure any bank worldwide by threatening of cutting them off USD. A bank in any country that can not transfer USD anymore is of no use to anyone. US government has been doing this so far to get accounts held by "terrorists" (people linked to North Korea, mafia, actual terrorists, etc) and while Bitcoin is still too small to get this kind of response, it's a good idea to stay friendly with the US govt. at this point and let Bitcoin grow and gain in legitimacy.
Once again shows his willingness and desire to cooperate with the US Gov.
EDIT4:
August 2012 Mt. Gox Company Overview
Cold Storage: 90-98% of Bitcoins entrusted to Mt.Gox are safely stored offline
EDIT5:
News Article shortly after DHS seizure
Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox Tightens Identity Requirement
and
Mt. Gox itself has faced new legal problems, too. Earlier this month Mt. Gox’s American intermediary for trading dollars and Bitcoins known as Mutum Sigullum had its accounts seized by Homeland Security Investigations for failing to register as a money transmitter.
and
Until now, Mt. Gox has tried to strike a careful balance between anonymity and money laundering laws, allowing anyone making trades under $1,000 to do so without a verified account and only demanding identification for larger trades. But when I spoke with the company’s Tokyo-based chief executive Mark Karpeles earlier this year, he emphasized that his first priority is to legitimize Bitcoin as a mature currency, not to preserve its anonymity.
EDIT6:
Posted just 10 months ago by Mt. Gox
Someone asked:
Does mtgox run as a fractional exchange? Meaning, do you have 100% of the bitcoins your users have deposited in your system?
and Gox replied:
NO. Everything is accounted for (BTC and money). Fractional reserve is absolutely against our principles. In fact 90~95% of BTC are held in cold storage.
EDIT7:
Were they running a fractional reserve? OR is the missing $22.5 million frozen?
EDIT8:
Full credit for the following goes to /u/califreshed
Someone else pointed out that in the chat between John Fisher & Mark that you linked, his exit line was:
[12:07] <JonWickedFire> Anything else you'd like to say to everyone before all the pissed off people start going nuts, even more...?
[12:09] <MagicalTux> not really
[12:09] <MagicalTux> maybe just a link? something like that: Why do we fall? - 9GAG
With the 9Gag being an image site that he linked to
http://9gag.com/gag/a442vZw taken on face value its just a movie quote, but what if using 9GAG was his attempt to send out a message again, with plausible deniability if called out on it?
Seems fairly plausible to me. Discuss...
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