If you are serious rather than trolling, then maybe I should attempt to respond to your question: however, I am getting the sense that you do not quite understand the concept of incrementalism, and you are just asking to be a pain in the ass while you remain in your continued gambling all or nothing mindset... and also a bit stubborn about your own risky practices... even though they seem to stress you out a bit more than you would like (as I can tell from some of your previous posts)

Let me see if I can address this proposition somewhat...

When you buy and sell incrementally, with the vast majority of your BTC allocated funds, you are not trying to prediction the price direction of the market and therefore, you mechanically apply the incrementalist principles that you have established for yourself and for your own situation.  Sure you do not make as much money as those persons who actually go all in and predict the price direction correctly, but an underlying assumption is that it is too difficult and too risky to attempt to predict the price direction, and in the long run incrementalism will pay off more than attempting to predict because when you attempt to engage in price predictions you stand to lose more overall by the times that you predict wrong as compared to the times that you predict correctly.

By the way, I don't completely exclude myself from price prediction practices, but about 90% of my ongoing trading practice is to mechanically stick with incrementalism type principles that are tailored to my situation and to apply those principles fairly strictly.. so I am only playing around with a small portion of my trading funds.. and in the end, my BTC portfolio consistently does quite well, and mostly because I stick largely with incrementalism - even though from time to time, I continue to hone my practices to better tailor to my own personal comfort levels (which likely applies slightly differently with each person who attempts such).

Nice series of posts today, Fakhoury...

It certainly is exciting to continue to experience decent ongoing upwards BTC price pressures and a number of articles (some of them even in quasi-mainstream publications) attempting to explain why.

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that?  It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no?  Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.  

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop.   I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.  

I guess that I am saying your strategy and even your question is dumb ... because it is a dumb strategy...

You act as if there is something wrong with posters making points that they want to make that are related to your post but maybe it is not the answer that you would prefer to hear... and there is nothing wrong with that.   

I do agree with your overall point, though, that a stop loss, if you were to place it, likely has to be accounting for shorter term spikes up and down.. Maybe that is why I don't really use those strategies because I don't know exactly how you could consistently make money with such a strategy (because it is a kind of gambling)?

As compared with my own strategy... hahahahahahahaha... there I go back to my preferred, incrementalist and seemingly consistently money making strategy.   

No one is saying that you don't have a decent chance of being correct in your description, but you seem to be giving way too much precision to such prediction and also trying to suggest that such a drop is pending at this particular moment... Sure there is a chance of it.. but also there are decent chances that from this particular point prices could go up another $25, $75, $200 or even $500 before such "inevitable" drop occurs.  So under which scenarios are you going to claim to be correct? 

And, really, who fucking cares...?  I mean people are largely in agreement that there are ups and downs and there are waves... and at the same time it is prudent to prepare for both ways.. so yeah, hopefully if guys are believing down is pending, they are not selling 50% of their stash because they feel such a prediction, but selling 10% can still be very profitable and prudent, but I prefer selling much smaller amounts (yet that is me).  I already sold more about 2.5% of my stash in the rise from $800 to present, and even with that, sometimes I am feeling like maybe I sold too much - because there have not really been any decent dips to buy back... so I don't mind another dip... if it is going to come, then it is going to come...

Wow.. as I am typing, I just saw an immediate sell of more than 700 coins on stamp at $1013?   Wonder if that means down?

you are the one who had been asking about strategies to protect yourself (or your BTC holdings from volatility)


And, also, you were suggesting some method that includes stop loss bullshit (which in essence is a kind of gambling - as you already seemed to acknowledge)

Also, if you sell an amount of BTC that is small enough, then you should not really give any kind of ratt's ass if you ever use those proceeds to buy back (in the event that you get left behind), because even if the price never ever comes back down again...  you still have plenty of BTC to get richie in the event that prices go up 2x, 5x, 10x, 100x.. or whatever is your thinking of upside price possibilities


So, yeah, such a strategy works for me, but it can work for anyone as long as that person picks numbers that are comfortable for them.... .. furthermore, it does not seem to be a good strategy to sell BTC at all when you are in early BTC accumulation stages.. or even if you feel that you are in BTC accumulation stages to establish a comfortable base stake in BTC.

That is why you do not employ any of those leveraging tools, or margin or anything like that....  it is too risky, unless you are going to be really actively involved and you employ a bunch of off set strategies that cause you to win big for every 5 times that you end up losing... hahahahaha

stick to really simple and small and non leveraged (and later, you can increase the amounts, once you get a decent feeling for it)

I think that all of those attempting to predict strategies are too risky.

You are asserting that you want to protect yourself from some of the downside volatility and to accumulate more coins if such downside volatility happens and you do not want to sell too many coins, in case the price goes up - instead of down (which also seems the longer term trend).

Safest is incrementalism, and pick an amount that is comfortable for you.  I am currently selling about 1% of my total bitcoin holdings for every 10% rise, however I do it in about $20 increments, therefore, I am selling like .2% of my BTC holdings  for every 2% rise.. and then that money starts to add up and I have it in order to buy back..which sooner or later seems to happen.. and causes me to have more bitcoins even while the price is moving up.

It is almost inevitable in bitcoin that we are going to experience  some of these drastic moves in both directions and the downwards seem pretty obvious to be decent buying opportunities and you can use the accumulated money from selling incrementally (in very small amounts) for such buying back during those seemingly inevitable downturns.

In other words you are coming off as retarded, but trying to act as if you are spreading some meaningful technical knowledge.... about inevitable patterns..... and bitcoin is not inevitable.... helrow??? an also without addressing any of the various previous points that I made...

Good luck with your attempt at a little bubble living.


By the way, bubble, I do like your cute ignore JJG meme... hahaha..   

1) dollar cost averaging works in a lot of situations, and usually folks do better by employing some kind of variation of it - not necessarily by attempting to time the market or attempting to maximize anything (such as low costs)

2) Whether this is your point or not, the point plays in to your attempt to criticize folks merely because they have a variety of approaches and whether they call their approach "investing" or "trading" or whether they are consistent along the way or whether they consistently change their approach does not really matter.  People will frequently attempt to figure something that works for them and they may also have to change it many times because not everyone is as smart as you seem to be suggesting that they have to be in order to have a successful approach.






Yes.  You made your points, and I made my points, and hopefully one or both of us become more enlightened by exchanging points.  hahaahaha.






Yes.. I responded to various points that you made, and you limited your response without addressing a variety of points that I made.  I doubt that we necessarily need to act as is we get all the points of others in order to make our own points or even to substantially respond to points that were raised by the other (whether intentional or not).





what you want to suggest and what you suggest can be two different things.





Both of us are probably smart enough to know that prices rise and drop for a variety of reasons which can be a combination of factors that you can measure in technical analysis and math, and yes, sometimes it is news and sometimes it is merely a small number of manipulators causing the momentum or the change in momentum.

Like I already mentioned (or at least implied), even if you are relying on technical analysis, you are also assigning a set of probabilities to events - unless you happen to think (which I believe would be foolish) that some results are inevitable rather than 20% or 60 % or 93.54% probable?  I doubt that you believe that outcomes are certain, even if sometimes you are phrasing some of your analysis in ways that seem to give way too high of probabilities to some outcomes.




Fair enough.. It may have just been my reading, and may have just been that one post?   I am not attempting to find any pattern in your predictive behavior.. at least, not yet..  





Whatever.... we can call ourselves whatever we want, and yeah, sure our activities may also fit in one category or another and we may or may not be calling ourselves correctly... Why does it matter?

It would be more of a "monster bounce", if we had not been in the same place 30 days before... more or less... .. so there is a difference between coming back versus going up for the first time ... no?

As you were typing that post, the price had already been touching upon $1010.. and maybe even a bit beyond.... So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... ).. so in that regard, it seems more realistic to prognosticate that there is going to be a bit more uppity.. before the down or flat begins..... am I not correct?



You are just spouting out wanna be right self righteous baloney here, and seem to be trying to accuse people of being hypocrites merely because they are not going all in at all times.  Even you should realize by now that having a really strong belief that the price is going up does not necessarily mean that you gotta go balls to the walls in, otherwise you are hypocrite.. that is baloney.   A person could have a strong belief about up and only be 60% in  or 80% in or 96% in... and that is going to vary from person to person, and they can practice such variance without being hypocritical.  


And, buying on dips is a great strategy.. for a lot of reasons, including the fact that there is frequently a cash flow situation that people have to deal with... maybe when prices were $250 for much of 2015, I only had $2k cash that I could invest, and I choose to invest $1k because even though I think that the price has a good chance of going up, I really do not know.  Now, over the next 12 to 18 months, I may continue to have a cash flow that continues to allow me to buy $100 a month... but I did not have that additional $1,200 to $1,800 available in 2015, even though in subsequent months, I can assess my finances and figure out that I do have that money available (to buy on dips)...

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?      

I have no problem with any of that analysis.. yet, it seems that we have decent chance to get to $1,050-ish or higher before experiencing another correction.. but yeah, when it comes to the future, we are dealing with probabilities rather than certainties, and sometimes less probable scenarios can end up playing out....  ... I think a correction in this $1,000 to $1,050 arena seems less likely than a correction above $1,050, but wat deee fuq doo me noes?

Who are these "lots of people" because that is sounding like pure pie in the sky fantasy bullshit?   or maybe coming off as a kind of royal "we."

We had a run up from $550 to $1140, and sure that was feeling a bit much and we got a pretty decent correction of over 34%.  What else do you want in terms of buying opportunities?

Sure it is possible that we can return to 3 digits, but I would not count on it, just as I would not count on not returning.

But, we all likely realize that Toknormal's statement was somewhat aspirational, but it certainly is quite possible to be completely true or at least true for long enough that you are missing various opportunities, if you have not already prepared for uppity rather than more down or flat.

Price and blocksize hardlimit are not correlated.

Bitcoin has a lot more going on than some mere simplistic (and even seemingly non-technical issue) such as blocksize hardlimit.  Yeah, sure granted there is some whining and politics around the blocksize hardlimit issue, but the correlation to price is quite tangential and sporadic and largely difficult to pinpoint in terms of directness... oh yeah, and even if there is some correlation, we have the other concept that even assuming correlation, that does not equal causation. 

It's like the clock keeps resetting.. when is this clock gonna really get moving?  Soon ^TM?

Gonna hit it, ONLY? or go above it?  If it goes above $1,000, then likely we need a 2% or more cushion just to be safe, no?

I think that just hitting it is really NOT very meaningful, because at this point, we are about 2% from "hitting" it, and seem like it is just about the same as "hitting" it...  The more important question, at the moment, seems to be about whether we will break it or not, and get sufficiently cushioned above it for at least a day or so..   Am I wrong?

The reason is that more buyers than sellers...     

I can't resist...... asserting my variation..... which I think is more solid because it provides for a lot more ammunition when the price does fall (from time to time, which seems nearly inevitable)

yes  buy on the way down.

BUT (that's a big BUT)

sell on the way up.

Currently, I only sell about 1% for every 10% price rise, and you can vary how much you sell... the mistake that people make is that they either sell too much or attempt to time the situation... if you are going to make a mistake, error on the side of selling too little, not selling too much.. that is why I have a hard time to criticize anyone who choses to sell none, but I do think that it would be in their interest to sell a little bit, even if that is only .1% for every 10% price rise or 1% for every 100% price rise.. whatever floats your boat.  





Yep... that is true... the rest of us really need people like you in order for the price to rise and to contribute to volatility...


You GO!!!!!!!!   Keep on keeping on!!!!!       

I think that it is an attempt to achieve unambiguous and near unanimous consensus...

I am sure that a lesser level could be reconsidered if it seems to be a practical and the 95% is not working.