Good news for the future of Crypto KingdomThe V.4 devteam is finishing the online playable version and it will be in testing in 2 weeks. More exact details and communication can be obtained from Sir Riccardo, fluffypony. I have also today contracted another one-man team for coding the CK Ultima version, for which the projected launch for testing is 31.10.2015. In the days of yore, I set up some guidelines for the version development, including: - having several teams working for the same goals to be able to kill/merge projects for shortest possible delivery time - developers should play the game actively during development and keep constant touch with me (designer) - having as little and as wizard as possible people involved to cut down on management and streamline the software - short development time is also cost-effective. I don't want to put any further stress to the Riccardo-led team (who are ready with V.4 any day from now), but I also have tried to get back to the design principles without much success. The game is not finished when it launches, it is barely starting, and in the future the principles need to be adhered to, to keep the project manageable by me. The situation in cryptoworld is such that this game is very much needed, and therefore we need to do what we reasonably can to make sure it is launched and further developed to realize our objectives. By having 2 teams, we will increase the chances of success, and the contract with the new team is very competitively structured, giving me complete control of accepting every milestone, which also need to be delivered on schedule. The project can be canceled any time with the payment of only the already accepted milestones. I am very enthusiastic by this chance to fulfill the vision of how I wished the game to be developed, and it gives peace of mind that it is only a backup option still, with everyone involved knowing that once we get facts about the playability and further development potential of V.4, it can be merged or cancelled. Communication is the key! With this in mind, the development works much better  I will be the communications contact for the Ultima version. King
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The above methodology can be used with altered values.
Also even if you keep the values, you can tailor your cashout schedule to even out the gains towards a nice return at a decent probability in the expense of a stellar return at a slim probability. (SSS plan by incremental selling to the strength).
What can't be avoided is the basic tenet that there is nothing that would make XMR gain value in 100% probability, or even 70%. Every sensible long-term plan involving investing in crypto must take into account that the probability for a gain is less than 50%, and the profitability comes from the fact that losses are capped to 100% at maximum, yet the upside is not capped.
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mhh thinking about to sell all my moneroj. It looks like dash will become the leader of anon  It's the difference between short and long term thinking. To open up, I will share my latest price/scenario analysis for Monero. I did it for the following 32 months (the remainder of this year, and the 2 following years). As it was price scenario, the only variable actually mapped was price, the reasons why the price might go up, down or stay the same, were all approximated as part of the probabilities. The scenarios had 6 possible prices: 1000, 100, 10, 1, 0.1 and 0 USD, and 0 was considered a terminal failure after which no recovery could happen. Each timepoint (end of year 2015, 2016, 2017) and price were assigned with a conditional probability based on the price in the previous timepoint. It was always possible to go to 0, the probability that it would happen in a given period ranged from 5-24%. Also every lower price point was always possible. The increase in price was only deemed possible to be 10-200x per period though, excluding black swans. (Much larger price increases are not even uncommon in crypto - BTC had 6400x in less than a year in 2010-2011, and some premined coins have had even larger). The complete table of conditional probabilities used (expressed in full %) is as follows: price 2015 16/0.1 16/1 16/10 16/100 17/0.1 17/1 17/10 17/100 17/1000
10000 1 9
1000 1 5 1 12 45
100 2 2 15 50 1 12 45 35
10 15 2 15 40 33 1 10 45 32 4
1 46 20 48 30 5 10 50 32 4 1
0,1 25 54 25 6 1 65 31 4 1 1
0 12 24 10 8 6 24 8 6 5 5
When calculated, it yielded the following price scenario probability table for the end of 2017: price Prob.... EV
10000 0,0642 % 6,42
1000 0,7535 % 7,54
100 3,9680 % 3,97
10 11,0986 % 1,11
1 23,1005 % 0,23
0,1 27,2754 % 0,03
0 33,7398 % 0,00
It looks like that an investment in Monero will return a loss of 80% or more in 61% probability, which is not promising. Also the probability of a rise to 1000 USD or more (reaching the historical peak in BTC marketcap, in about 2/3 of the timeframe that BTC reached it from launch) is at less than 1%, a reality check confirming the conservative assumptions. Yet the EV of XMR in the end of the period (the sum of the partial EV in the above table) is 19.29 USD, a 38x gain in 32 months, with an annual expected return of 293%. When we evaluate this result, it is notable that 3/4s of the EV is produced from scenarios where XMR achieves the current size of BTC, or more. It is these scenarios that must exist to make the coin a stellar investment. Now I don't want to bash Dash, but I haven't seen evidence that it could realistically (<1% (above) is still realistic, 0% is not) achieve such a prominent long-term position. To create a fat tail probability distribution, there must be few flaws in the system. Dash has too many: - single developer - premine - lying about the premine - masternodes - deficient anonymity. It is like physically reaching the moon. The spacecraft does not need to be high-end, but if there are 5 large holes in its different systems, it soon tilts the odds of actually reaching the moon to become slim. Monero, on the other hand, seems quite antifragile. The only problem that is as severe as the ones listed above for Dash, is - botnet mining. The developers have correctly understood that the potential and payoff for Monero is not in the order of 10-100x the current price, but 1000x or more. The priorities of development are set accordingly. If Monero and Dash are mooncraft, Monero's design philosophy is to maximize the probability of hitting moon, and the resulting payoff, while Dash concentrates on getting as many people on board as possible. |
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The detailed calc is there in the thread a few months ago. It is very pessimistic, and gives XMR only 39% chance to even be alive in 2.5 years. Significant gains happen only in 15% of the cases. Yet the EV was something like 29x. If you think that is too much weighed to the downside, buy more, and by so doing, help it grow!  |
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When you guys think XMR will be 2k USD per coin, why do you ignore 1 major risk:
In the nearest future some superior tech coin may surge on the market. When BTC was released, people thought it was anonymous. Now we all know it is not. Moreover BTC network is not immune and it was spammed.
(Hopefully) nobody is ignoring any risks. Rather, we are talking about a price scenario universe with very lucrative, small probability outcomes. The more detailed calculation is back there in the same thread, but an indicative one can be summarized as: 1/100 probability = 1000x gain 99/100 probability = total loss Nothing is ignored, all the risks are there in the 99% part. Yet the 1% makes it all worthwhile and +EV. |
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If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
So did the guys who advertised BTC in 2010. Now they have their limos, yachts and castles. |
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Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap hm? It's not cheap any more? Now, yes. When BTC hits $1Million, probably not. |
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You are too young. When dollar was devalued in the U.S. during the 1900s, the IRS instituted special penalty taxes on the supposed "gain" that you could have made by holding silver and gold instead of fiat paper. They wanted to tax everybody equally so gold was declared illegal unless you sold it to the govt for $20 per ounce (it was revalued at $35, for the 40% wealth tax) and later same kind happened to silver. Let's assume that the banksters want to officially hint that BTC will be made an international settlement currency (perhaps for real, perhaps as a trap). This will raise the price to $1 million per BTC (it's still smaller than USD). There are 100-500k people who hold BTC1 or more, and are made millionaires by this decree. If history is any guide, the banksters want to steal 100% of the gains that are supposedly created by the decree, leaving nothing for the risk carried by the speculator. Then you would be required to sell your BTC to the banksters for $1k or so, or they would be made illegal. (Yes, I know there is no point whatsoever from the user's perspective in such a monetary system, but then again that applies to the current one as well, and does not stop them from forcing it on us.) Hopefully they have accumulated enough during the downturn that this won't be implemented  Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap |
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I have the feeling that the uptrend is slowly getting started. My hunch is that there is a good chance that this one will carry us to quite high values. Caveats: - I think it will be slow. Much slower than the culmination of the 2013 uptrend(s). If we put this in perspective of the time after the 2011 peak and downtrend, we are now emerging from the "$5 plateau", with perhaps a year more before hitting even the old ATH. - The banksters are getting Bitcoin in their grip. The combination of extensive controls, AML/KYC, exchange failures, shorting, etc. means that no honest person has much business trying to affect the price. It will go where they want it to go, within bounds of course. They have managed it to stay low for this long, but cannot do it indefinitely - Selling will be difficult, because at the apex of the bubble, ordinary old guard people will have million$ worth of BTC, and it's even possible that special taxes will be enacted by govts to capture most of the value from recorded sales (selling such amounts off-record and buying anything with the proceeds off-record is an activity not reserved for honest people in our current system). - Because of the high cost of selling, not much coin will enter the market quickly enough, making the peak quite steep, as the previous peaks also have been. When the price doubles in a week, it's time to exit, and better have thought the way to do it in advance. I would abstain from selling now, except for immediate cash flow needs. It is more likely that every month from now the price is higher, so delaying is advantageous. When the old ATH is broken, things get interesting. My sell zone starts from $3000 as I have said many times starting from more than a year ago |
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The weekend of 27-30 August is available in Malla for a Monero meetup. I'd like to organize the event if minimum 10 people enroll. Price for a 4-day event or any part thereof, including airport transfer from Tallinn, the conference and all meals, would be 300 EUR. There are 3 kinds of rooms, all renovated in 2014. Also dormitory is available. Rooms will be added to the bill per night. This short note is just for probing the possible interest, so please speak freely! |
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Considering that there are no "born whales" (premine) and the incentive to buy more goes down after you already have so much that you cannot exit at market, 20% = Cthulhu (probably does not exist) 10% = Leviathan (likely max 1) 5% = Behemoth (1-2) 1% = Whale (~10) 0.5% = Pocket whale 0.1% = Shark/Dolphin (depends on your trading aggression) To adjust a large position, the market can only bear about 2500 XMR/day buy/sell pressure. This means that it takes month(s) for a whale to enter/exit a position completely, and the whole lifespan of the currency to amass a Leviathan+ sized amount. Only sharks can efficiently daytrade. USD amounts are very small, so if new whales want to be born, we will be able to see it |
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The speculation about "when it starts to hurt the users if fee is raised?" is as old as Bitcoin itself.
Personally I belong to the "not easily" camp. Of course low fee is better than high, but 0.001 would never hurt. 0.01 would be a nuisance and direct smaller amounts transfers to XMR but slowly. 0.1 is still less than international wire transfer fee, and I'd continue using BTC for large/needed transactions only. BTC1 per transfer is a lot, so I would only use it for major transfers.
Percentagewise, <0.1% of the value is insignificant, >1% is hefty.
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CK does have things going on, unfortunately at the moment just telling about them (instead of seeing) is a bit frustrating. Let's enjoy the Bitcoin ride meanwhile |
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I think it's possible that the pump going on in LTC/NMC/PPC will spill over to XMR soon.
Anyway participating in the pump is too late. Much rather hold XMR at these levels.
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1. "Free in Estonia" is a trade term that means you can pick up your silver in Tallinn all local taxes and duties paid. If you want it transported, it's on your expense.
2. I think it is more bullish when I stop doing those marketcap comparisons, or especially when I start making them after a long delay (which I did both March and October 2013, both right before big rallies).
3. Total silver mined by humans is 45 Boz, of which about 20 B remain, making the market cap about $300 B. I don't know if Anunnaki etc. were as interested in silver as they were of gold, which makes the total ambiguous. Also most of the 20 Boz is nowhere to be seen, my records show that even in 1980 when the price went up 10x in months, only 2 Boz surfaced.
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Heavy withdrawal limits are also a great way to run without full reserves. I just don't like it. It's not a joke. It's a real possibility that 50,000 or 100,000 XMR will be equal to 1 million dollars one day. I don't want any funny business on the exchanges.
You should never keep that much money on any exchange. If you make a large trade, in the real world you have to allow 3 weeks for everything to be settled. In 3 weeks, you get to make about 19 withdrawals about 24500 USD each if you try moderately hard. That is $465,500 absolute maximum. No, it is not enough after any price appreciation. There will be alternatives by that time. |
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I've yet to see an XMR discount for silver, and hope not to because of the temptation it might provoke!  I am selling you generic 90% U.S. coins at silver spot-1%, free in Estonia. ONLY XMR ACCEPTED |
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They should just ban hands appendages thoughts; all crimes are perpetuated by thoughts.  Yeah that's correct. If there are no thoughts, it is safe to let people carry weapons! Isn't this what makes armed policemen safe?  |
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Given the difference in PoW (SHA vs SCrypt), the case could be made that LTC is less of a clone of BTC than XMR is of BCN. Of course it was. Nowadays the difference in LTC codebase vs. BTC is less than XMR vs. BCN, due to XMR being almost completely rewritten by our glorious and vigilant devs. It's fascinating to watch the market, by offering near-zero interest rates for borrowing, all but dare someone to short XMR.
TrueCryptonaire thinks this is a problem because "if there will be a dump, there will be no buyers (shorters closing their positions)." Maybe this is what's we're seeing today?
It will find buyers, it's only a question of "FOMO" vs. "greed to get'em cheaper". I have somewhat predicted 0.0015 but the progress towards that value is so slow that our efforts to find new money might kick in sooner |
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The problem with the 'hurr durr LTC is *nothing but* a clone of BTC amirite' position is that by the same logic XMR is *nothing but* a BCN clone.
BCN was not fair launch. BTC is generally perceived as a fair launch. It looks a little bearish on XMR/BTC btw. The rally on BTC/USD has pressured the XMR/BTC rate and it does not help confidence that the big wall was sold into in 190k. I believe there is a chance that BTC will nudge upwards and it will be interesting to see what XMR does. It is convincing to see that XMR seems to be somewhat priced in USD despite trading in BTC. I envision that this offers protection in case BTC suffers a big hit. |
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