What kind of fantasy world are you in? 

Yeah, sure there are some naive folks who are doing that, but in reality that should be the exception rather than any kind of widespread happening, no?

I get what you are saying, in terms of "signs," and really there had been "signs" of Bitfinex shenanigans for at least a year before the August 2, "hack".     

So, even though kind of like Gox, this whole bitfinex matter seems to be a whole-hell-of-a-lot more sophisticated and tricky, as compared with Gox.. Similar, but different.

Whether they are going to run away with the money or not still seems to be a question, even though some people like to describe the whole situation as a "when" question rather than an "if" question. 

Personally, I don't really know.  I do have some BFX coin tied up with them that I don't really want to cash out and likely lock in a more than 40% loss of that (based on current BFX prices), but surely, if the signs seems strong enough, it may be worth it to completely pull out of there. 

Since the BFX hack had taken place, I had made several BTC withdrawals, and a few BTC deposits.  Overall, my Bitfinex exposure was not really very big (even before the alleged "hack"), and currently, my exposure is a bit smaller than it had been.  Since there are some of these goofy and apparent warning signs coming from Bitfinex, I may be somewhat in agreement that it could be prudent for me to lessen my Bitfinex exposure even more.. I am still a bit in the air about the level of prudence that I personally deem to be fitting to my circumstances (which includes my consideration of the risks that I am taking and how much risk I am willing to tolerate, even while there are admittedly "signs")

Hahahahahah... we will see if your prediction comes true.

How long is awhile 1-2 months?

Maybe a few weeks is a while in bitcoinlandia?

I personally think that the odds of you being correct are fairly low.

There are no fucking FUDsters or anyone else exactly able to control the price direction of bitcoin.. especially when it starts getting a bit heated up.

We had a price appreciation of nearly 25% from $610 to $750 and now we experienced a price correction of nearly 7% from $750 to lower $700s...

A price correction like this, or even a price correction that could go back down to $610, will likely trigger some kind of a battle...

That is not called settling in, that is called volatility and that is called increased volume, and then we see if one side or the other wins, or if like you are suggesting, there ends up being a $699 truce... Whatever.. there is no inevitability or numerology or any of this other phoney baloney numerology crap that you tend to be inclined to spew out.

Probably our disagreement is not very considerable here.    Whenever either combining consideration of exchanges or giving less than 100% credit to any exchange is going to cause folks to come to differing conclusions about methodology.  But in the end, some folks are more technical and mathematic, and other folks just try to get senses of trends based on larger dynamics, without getting caught up in the mathematical particulars. 

I would characterize myself as less of the mathematical type, but I do tend to be pretty mathematical nerdy sometimes in regards to various tracking methods that I employ for myself.  So, yeah, overall it is much more difficult to get others to agree with my particular approach, unless I show proof of the methodology that is acceptable to others.

You seem to misunderstand me or to misread me, if you are suggesting that I am saying put your finger into the wind.


The subject came up when toknormal seemed to have been relying almost exclusively on the chinese exchanges.

I said that I believe that they chinese exchanges are a very unreliable predictor, and I suggested first to use USD/BTC exchanges, and alternatively, I suggested a kind of weighted formula to give less credit to chinese exchanges, as compared with USD/BTC exchanges.  I was not arguing any kind of random or vague scenario, because I did not necessarily want to get caught up in a lot of technical work..

I don't get super excited about technical analysis merely for the sake of technical analysis, yet on the other hand, if guys want to put in the work to attempt to apply various kind of technical analysis, then surely sometimes that can sometimes be informative... to the extent that they are able to either use it themselves or share it with others.

I usually attempt to keep up with my PMs, and I saw one from you from a bit over a week ago.  I kind of forgot about it, but I will respond, now... sorry about that.

I personally believe, at this time, that the price is going up on relatively overall low volume (or medium volume at best), but anyway the various USD exchanges are going to pick up and show their actual capabilities in respect to processing higher levels of volume once the price battle begins (in other words the price battle has not begun yet).

At this point, also, I theorize that there are three logical places in which the price battle could most feasibly begin:  1) after a price rise into the upper $700s, 2) after a price rise in the mid-$800s or 3) after a price rise into the above $2k arena.

I believe that scenario 2 above is the most likely, and I am less than 50% confident that the bulls are going to win that battle - but I certainly would like to be pleasantly surprised against my best intuitions (maybe like some others in this thread, I have become a bit battle fatigued and I remain a bit scared of the bears, since they had been successful in beating us bulls down several times over the past 3 years - even when there seems to be continuing pretty decent upwards price pressures at the moment) 

I understand that there has been various discussion about this point of weighted trade volume, and I understand that it could be quite a bit of work to attempt to establish any kind of exact system, and therefore, probably good in concept, even though in practice we may want to merely attempt a kind of ballparking of such weighted trade volume considerations.




In the end, each of us is working with various kinds of imperfect information; however, yes, as you say, from time to time, some insiders will reveal some of the insider practices (such as faking trade volume), and various kinds of corruption and deception such as this is going to vary from exchange to exchange (and some will be attempting to be on the up and up), so we just would need to ball park approximate with the best that we can.


I understand that these kinds of factors can exist, sometimes, and sometimes these kinds of factors may need to be considered in various scenarios, but other times, maybe they constitute too many trees for missing the forest....   I mean big things and big lumping of factors is likely better than getting caught too much into the details, in my thinking.




I personally think that it would be easier not to get caught up too much with any particulars of the exchange, just down grade them a bit from 100% if they have questionable practices.  For example a place like Okcoin or Huobi have extraordinary trade volume, so maybe just count them as 10% or 20%, and maybe even less, if you come to the conclusion that the trade volume does not really represent anything meaningful...

Sure there may be some ways to accomplish this with technical precision (no matter how much weight you end up giving to each of the exchanges), but really, at this point, I don't have any such kind of tool to calculate weighing exchange trade with precision, and accordingly, I am just talking about ballparking the practice or at least attempting to do a decent approximation with limited tools (so conceptually, we can frame these kinds of issues by attempting to allocate some weight).

Hey tok _ n

I was thinking about our recent interaction, and I am really thinking that if you were to consider a kind of weighted average to the trade volumes of exchanges, then that could be more satisfactory overall...

Of course, your perception of a fair weighted average in respect to trade volume and my sense of a fair weighted average would be different, and of course there are also some difficulties in employing such a weighted average but nonetheless, I think that a weighted average is much better than attempting to either (two sides of the same coin): 1) look at the trade volume of only a few exchanges or 2) refusing to give weight to some influential factors involving the trade volume of exchanges.

For example, at this particular time, I personally would weight exchange trade volume something like this:

Bitstamp (USD/BTC):  100%

Bitfinex (USD/BTC):  60%-80%  (skeptical of some of it's practices including some of the margin/leverage trading)

Gemini (USD/BTC):  100%

BTC-e (USD/BTC):  100%

GDAX (USD/BTC):  95-100%

Krakenn (USD/BTC and Euro/BTC):  100%

World-wide LocalBitcoins:  70% to 100% (at this point, I'm not really sure about how much weight to give to trade volume here)

OKCoin (CNY/BTC): 10%-20% (I'm pessimistic about this trade volume but maybe it could be reasonably weighed somewhere in this range?)

Huobi (CNY/BTC):  same as OkCoin

BTCC (CNY/BTC):  same as OkCoin


There may be some others as well, but I think that my main criticism of your earlier analysis was that I thought that you were giving way too much weight to the trade volume of the chinese exchanges (that involve CNY/BTC pairs)  and not enough weight to other exchanges (mostly having USD/BTC pairs)

So a crash is coming? 

Will such a crash come before we reach $750 ?

or before we reach $800?

Or before we reach $850? 

I think after $850, it is not going to matter too much about what the supposed correction indicating RSI says.... hahahahahahaha  Am I wrong?

Yeah, sure we gotta get above $850 first, whether that be RSI prohibitive or otherwise, but once we are there, if such a thing were to happen, then... BOOOOOM, no?

I've "killed" bitcoin too, correct?

 

I know that this forum can be a bit difficult in some of its policies to attempt to reactivate an account, but it seems quite likely that Adam, if he wanted, would be able to figure out a way to convince them that he is the real Adam and to show some kinds of proof (to their satisfaction) that he is the "real one" rather than some Adam nutjob (said with endearment) wannabe.... hahahahaha.

The main point seems to be that the actual adam seems to be quite disinclined to go through the motions, at this particular moment.

Many of us would like to have Adam back in order to "make this thread great again" 

Time has changed and we gotta move on...


 

Fair enough.  I think that you have pretty decent analysis, and sure each of us are taking into account a variety of factors within our attempts to understand various factors (and even to account for misinformation). 

I think that as long as you are considering a variety of factors, and attempting to back up what you say, then  that is certainly a lot more than many posters attempt to accomplish.. so definitely have to applaud you for making those various efforts to attempt to back up how you arrived at your various conclusions (even if I may not agree with all of it).

Another thing is that it can be quite bold (and even ballsy) to make some predictions when the price begins to move a lot.  I think that it becomes more and more difficult to come up with a decent theory regarding where the price is going. 

I remain somewhat of the opinion that the price battle has not really begun yet, because I am more or less of the conclusion that the trade volume remains mediocre (looking at the trade volume on the western exchanges).  You recall (of course you can look back at it) that there was an ongoing fairly intense trade volume from about August 2015 all the way until almost the end of 2015.  Western exchanges certainly are capable of increased BTC trade volume, which I expect to take place at some point when the price battle begins.  I personally expect such battle before reaching $850, but certainly it is possible (as you seem to be suggesting) that such a battle may not occur until prices shoot well beyond $850 (and I would assert that price battle would then take place in the higher than $1,500s, and probably in the $3k to $5k range, but in the end, I really have my doubts and I am thinking that the chances are fairly decent that we will witness a price battle before the mid-$800s... even though I would be pleasantly surprised - and likely financially prosper considerably -  if such a price battle does not begin until after $850).

We kind of already had this debate, and fine, you put more weight in the chinese volume than I do.  I am not saying to completely discard such volume, even though there has been some admissions that some of it is fake and we also know that there are a lot of bots in place, as well, based on no fee trading.  Furthermore, when there is that much volume and admissions of fakeness, we also have to consider that there may be some fractional reserves going on there, too. 

Sure, some of it may be true and some of it may lead, but there are likely better ways to analyze without putting so much weight and emphasis on the chinese.

I have no xenophobia or even fears of chinese, it is just that we need to consider the matter for what it is rather than putting too much reliance upon some things that could be not based in reality and real dynamics.


Also, this is a BTC/USD thread for a reason because the emphasis and reference point should be BTC/USD - yet I do understand that other currency pairs will also have effects on the BTC/USD pairs.. so I definitely acknowledge and recognize that cross currency influences do exist.

I understand that you are referring to $720 to $740 resistance, but it is still bullshit.

There is no meaningful technical analysis that is going to justify that a correction "needs to be bigger than average", merely because they say... .. but at the same time corrections are part of the market process, but there is no real need that they have to be at any particular level, especially if you consider bitcoin in its current context.

I am not suggesting to not consider trade volume.  I am just asserting that the chinese trade volume is not reliable.  You can analyse price and make predictions by discounting aspects of the chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

You could be correct toknormal about no retracement, but it gets very tempting for meaningful corrections to take place (surely a  correction is not absolutely needed), but bitcoin is more mature than it had been in the past (late 2013 and before that), which seems to make it more likely that we would experience some kind of meaningful retracement, especially before surpassing mid-$800s.

The fact of the matter (and the current situation) is that we have not experienced any kind of meaningful retracement since $610-ish (which is nearly a 20% price appreciation with no correction).  This most recent retracement of about 5% does not seem to be sufficiently significant or enough in order to provide sufficient fuel in order to keep going up - especially if we were to go up another 15% from here into the lower $800s price territory d ... so I am not convinced that we are going to be realistically able to shoot beyond mid$800s without some kind of meaningful - even if short term correction, even though it is possible (but seemingly less likely) that such a non-retracement scenario could play out.

Yep... this is certainly some decent price action going on.  I should be sleeping, but it is difficult to sleep during, times of exciteeeeeeee!!!!! 

I mean in fact, when we are touching the $720s and beyond, we are pretty much at a 5 month high and maybe even a you could say a 33 month high (except for about two weeks in June 2016 in which prices were higher), and there were only less than 11 weeks in late 2013 and early 2014 in which BTC prices were higher than these $720s price points  -

I think those are decent feelings to get these in the range of $720 price pressures and seemingly pushing into the $720s and above.   

It is starting to seem possible that we are soon going to have a test of the resistance in the upper $700s, maybe? Maybe this week? or otherwise such a test could be coming relatively soon?