Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Scofield]

We seem to be heading for the great 5180 - out of the handle at speed and volume.

What do you think will happen? Will we be able to break the resistance? Hear alot of people about a retrace to ~4500 CNY after hitting 5150 CNY.
I think that might be true.

[toknormal]

Hear alot of people about a retrace to ~4500 CNY after hitting 5150 CNY.
I think that might be true.

Why ?

[Scofield]

I'm far from sure, but we seem to be moving up quite fast now without actual retracements. A big correction could become reality.

[toknormal]

I'm far from sure, but we seem to be moving up quite fast now without actual retracements.

There've been plenty of retracements.

[Scofield]

I hope youre right. So you think we'll break 5180 soon?

[toknormal]

What about this ? Isn't this a retracement ?

[Scofield]

Yes, but that was months ago. I'm talking about a more short-term correction. But pretty much like the one you mention, except I don't think it will be that harsh. To many green candles in a row tend to scare me. 

[toknormal]

I hope youre right. So you think we'll break 5180 soon?

Well look at it this way:

1. The great 2-year cup and handle formation is complete.

2. You are supposed to need a big volume ramp-up to break out of the cup segment of the formation - what do we have here ?...

3. You need some fundamentals justification to support the technicals: = Yen devaluations, Bitcoin didn't collapse due to limited blocksize, scaling technologies imminent and continued adoption growth (Basically it has got through the next "rights of passage" phase)

4. Other stuff

[JayJuanGee]

What about this ? Isn't this a retracement ?

You could be correct toknormal about no retracement, but it gets very tempting for meaningful corrections to take place (surely a  correction is not absolutely needed), but bitcoin is more mature than it had been in the past (late 2013 and before that), which seems to make it more likely that we would experience some kind of meaningful retracement, especially before surpassing mid-$800s.

The fact of the matter (and the current situation) is that we have not experienced any kind of meaningful retracement since $610-ish (which is nearly a 20% price appreciation with no correction).  This most recent retracement of about 5% does not seem to be sufficiently significant or enough in order to provide sufficient fuel in order to keep going up - especially if we were to go up another 15% from here into the lower $800s price territory d ... so I am not convinced that we are going to be realistically able to shoot beyond mid$800s without some kind of meaningful - even if short term correction, even though it is possible (but seemingly less likely) that such a non-retracement scenario could play out.

[Scofield]

All valid points toknormal, I agree the future looks bright. 

There seems to be another cup and handle forming though, on the 1W chart. Starting in June, till about now. If this pattern forms, we'll need a handle (correction) before really breaking out, right?

[JayJuanGee]

I hope youre right. So you think we'll break 5180 soon?

Well look at it this way:

1. The great 2-year cup and handle formation is complete.

2. You are supposed to need a big volume ramp-up to break out of the cup segment of the formation - what do we have here ?...

3. You need some fundamentals justification to support the technicals: = Yen devaluations, Bitcoin didn't collapse due to limited blocksize, scaling technologies imminent and continued adoption growth (Basically it has got through the next "rights of passage" phase)

4. Other stuff

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

[toknormal]

There seems to be another cup and handle forming though, on the 1W chart. Starting in June, till about now

Could be - i.e. you're saying that every handle is also a potential "cup" a la fractal formation ?

I just think traders are sick of selling now and realise the writing's on the wall for the bear market. Bitcoin is doing everything gold's supposed to be doing. The world is a very big place. Bitcoin is a very small market. People are going to start noticing it "didn't die".

[toknormal]

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

Seems pretty reliable to me. I prefer to rely on charts than bitcointalk urban myths about "faked volume".

[calme]

According to BullBear Analytics (i.e. the subscription-based BTC forecasting service), we'll likely need to correct deeper than we have in order to truly get through the 620-640 resistance range.  

[JayJuanGee]

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

Seems pretty reliable to me. I prefer to rely on charts than bitcointalk urban myths about "faked volume".

I am not suggesting to not consider trade volume.  I am just asserting that the chinese trade volume is not reliable.  You can analyse price and make predictions by discounting aspects of the chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

[JayJuanGee]

According to BullBear Analytics (i.e. the subscription-based BTC forecasting service), we'll likely need to correct deeper than we have in order to truly get through the 620-640 resistance range.  

I understand that you are referring to $720 to $740 resistance, but it is still bullshit.

There is no meaningful technical analysis that is going to justify that a correction "needs to be bigger than average", merely because they say... .. but at the same time corrections are part of the market process, but there is no real need that they have to be at any particular level, especially if you consider bitcoin in its current context.

[Elwar]

I just think traders are sick of selling now and realise the writing's on the wall for the bear market. Bitcoin is doing everything gold's supposed to be doing. The world is a very big place. Bitcoin is a very small market. People are going to start noticing it "didn't die".

True, the price kept going down because that was the trend. People were not investing in a currency that had been losing value over the past year.

Now that they see the price going up they will want to get in on a currency who's value has gone up over the past year.

Even my ultra-liberal (bitcoin is stupid) friend saw the price and said "Maybe I should stick $10k in bitcoin" today. Meanwhile I convinced my investor buddy who has over $1 million in stocks to buy his first bitcoin at $635, he just set up a weekly $400 buy.

It is feeling very much like 2013 again.

[toknormal]

...chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

Ok, but you'd have to go a long way to convince me that the fake element is in any way dominant. All markets contain a degree of synthesised volume for one reason or another. The question is, can one player with limited budget dominate the character of the market over the other 100,000 ?

Thats why I don't hold much store by these kind of rumours. They're just a myth that grows legs on places like bitcointalk and for which nobody ever bothers to try to quantify.

You can see a distinct trend on very long range chart. The problem with faking the volume on any significant scale is that you also need to fake the price since one is a product of the other and these are genuine trades (unless the actual statistics are fakes which of course would be a different matter).

Ok, we are back over 5000 CNY. The 5180 SRB ignition level is in sight.

[Karartma1]

I'm getting messages and e-mails from people who heard bitcoin from me 3 years ago: those days are behind us but those were the days in which I was sponsoring and advocating bitcoin the most.
Do you know what I do today with those communications? I DELETE THEM! I said what I needed to say to them long ago.  

[JayJuanGee]

...chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

Ok, but you'd have to go a long way to convince me that the fake element is in any way dominant. All markets contain a degree of synthesised volume for one reason or another. The question is, can one player with limited budget dominate the character of the market over the other 100,000 ?

Thats why I don't hold much store by these kind of rumours. They're just a myth that grows legs on places like bitcointalk and for which nobody ever bothers to try to quantify.

You can see a distinct trend on very long range chart. The problem with faking the volume on any significant scale is that you also need to fake the price since one is a product of the other and these are genuine trades (unless the actual statistics are fakes which of course would be a different matter).

Ok, we are back over 5000 CNY. The 5180 SRB ignition level is in sight.

We kind of already had this debate, and fine, you put more weight in the chinese volume than I do.  I am not saying to completely discard such volume, even though there has been some admissions that some of it is fake and we also know that there are a lot of bots in place, as well, based on no fee trading.  Furthermore, when there is that much volume and admissions of fakeness, we also have to consider that there may be some fractional reserves going on there, too. 

Sure, some of it may be true and some of it may lead, but there are likely better ways to analyze without putting so much weight and emphasis on the chinese.

I have no xenophobia or even fears of chinese, it is just that we need to consider the matter for what it is rather than putting too much reliance upon some things that could be not based in reality and real dynamics.


Also, this is a BTC/USD thread for a reason because the emphasis and reference point should be BTC/USD - yet I do understand that other currency pairs will also have effects on the BTC/USD pairs.. so I definitely acknowledge and recognize that cross currency influences do exist.