Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

200,000 BTC less mined since halving ... supply starting to tighten considerably now, 2 more months and the halving will be getting close to "priced in" 

buuut... do we have stats on how many miners sell their coins?

If it is X% of miners selling their coins. That number is still cut in half. X% of miners selling half the previous amount of coins.

[JayJuanGee]

Hodllll

Yep... this is certainly some decent price action going on.  I should be sleeping, but it is difficult to sleep during, times of exciteeeeeeee!!!!! 

I mean in fact, when we are touching the $720s and beyond, we are pretty much at a 5 month high and maybe even a you could say a 33 month high (except for about two weeks in June 2016 in which prices were higher), and there were only less than 11 weeks in late 2013 and early 2014 in which BTC prices were higher than these $720s price points  -

I think those are decent feelings to get these in the range of $720 price pressures and seemingly pushing into the $720s and above.   

It is starting to seem possible that we are soon going to have a test of the resistance in the upper $700s, maybe? Maybe this week? or otherwise such a test could be coming relatively soon?

[toknormal]

We seem to be heading for the great 5180 - out of the handle at speed and volume.

[Scofield]

We seem to be heading for the great 5180 - out of the handle at speed and volume.

What do you think will happen? Will we be able to break the resistance? Hear alot of people about a retrace to ~4500 CNY after hitting 5150 CNY.
I think that might be true.

[toknormal]

Hear alot of people about a retrace to ~4500 CNY after hitting 5150 CNY.
I think that might be true.

Why ?

[Scofield]

I'm far from sure, but we seem to be moving up quite fast now without actual retracements. A big correction could become reality.

[toknormal]

I'm far from sure, but we seem to be moving up quite fast now without actual retracements.

There've been plenty of retracements.

[Scofield]

I hope youre right. So you think we'll break 5180 soon?

[toknormal]

What about this ? Isn't this a retracement ?

[Scofield]

Yes, but that was months ago. I'm talking about a more short-term correction. But pretty much like the one you mention, except I don't think it will be that harsh. To many green candles in a row tend to scare me. 

[toknormal]

I hope youre right. So you think we'll break 5180 soon?

Well look at it this way:

1. The great 2-year cup and handle formation is complete.

2. You are supposed to need a big volume ramp-up to break out of the cup segment of the formation - what do we have here ?...

3. You need some fundamentals justification to support the technicals: = Yen devaluations, Bitcoin didn't collapse due to limited blocksize, scaling technologies imminent and continued adoption growth (Basically it has got through the next "rights of passage" phase)

4. Other stuff

[JayJuanGee]

What about this ? Isn't this a retracement ?

You could be correct toknormal about no retracement, but it gets very tempting for meaningful corrections to take place (surely a  correction is not absolutely needed), but bitcoin is more mature than it had been in the past (late 2013 and before that), which seems to make it more likely that we would experience some kind of meaningful retracement, especially before surpassing mid-$800s.

The fact of the matter (and the current situation) is that we have not experienced any kind of meaningful retracement since $610-ish (which is nearly a 20% price appreciation with no correction).  This most recent retracement of about 5% does not seem to be sufficiently significant or enough in order to provide sufficient fuel in order to keep going up - especially if we were to go up another 15% from here into the lower $800s price territory d ... so I am not convinced that we are going to be realistically able to shoot beyond mid$800s without some kind of meaningful - even if short term correction, even though it is possible (but seemingly less likely) that such a non-retracement scenario could play out.

[Scofield]

All valid points toknormal, I agree the future looks bright. 

There seems to be another cup and handle forming though, on the 1W chart. Starting in June, till about now. If this pattern forms, we'll need a handle (correction) before really breaking out, right?

[JayJuanGee]

I hope youre right. So you think we'll break 5180 soon?

Well look at it this way:

1. The great 2-year cup and handle formation is complete.

2. You are supposed to need a big volume ramp-up to break out of the cup segment of the formation - what do we have here ?...

3. You need some fundamentals justification to support the technicals: = Yen devaluations, Bitcoin didn't collapse due to limited blocksize, scaling technologies imminent and continued adoption growth (Basically it has got through the next "rights of passage" phase)

4. Other stuff

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

[toknormal]

There seems to be another cup and handle forming though, on the 1W chart. Starting in June, till about now

Could be - i.e. you're saying that every handle is also a potential "cup" a la fractal formation ?

I just think traders are sick of selling now and realise the writing's on the wall for the bear market. Bitcoin is doing everything gold's supposed to be doing. The world is a very big place. Bitcoin is a very small market. People are going to start noticing it "didn't die".

[toknormal]

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

Seems pretty reliable to me. I prefer to rely on charts than bitcointalk urban myths about "faked volume".

[calme]

According to BullBear Analytics (i.e. the subscription-based BTC forecasting service), we'll likely need to correct deeper than we have in order to truly get through the 620-640 resistance range.  

[JayJuanGee]

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

Seems pretty reliable to me. I prefer to rely on charts than bitcointalk urban myths about "faked volume".

I am not suggesting to not consider trade volume.  I am just asserting that the chinese trade volume is not reliable.  You can analyse price and make predictions by discounting aspects of the chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

[JayJuanGee]

According to BullBear Analytics (i.e. the subscription-based BTC forecasting service), we'll likely need to correct deeper than we have in order to truly get through the 620-640 resistance range.  

I understand that you are referring to $720 to $740 resistance, but it is still bullshit.

There is no meaningful technical analysis that is going to justify that a correction "needs to be bigger than average", merely because they say... .. but at the same time corrections are part of the market process, but there is no real need that they have to be at any particular level, especially if you consider bitcoin in its current context.

[Elwar]

I just think traders are sick of selling now and realise the writing's on the wall for the bear market. Bitcoin is doing everything gold's supposed to be doing. The world is a very big place. Bitcoin is a very small market. People are going to start noticing it "didn't die".

True, the price kept going down because that was the trend. People were not investing in a currency that had been losing value over the past year.

Now that they see the price going up they will want to get in on a currency who's value has gone up over the past year.

Even my ultra-liberal (bitcoin is stupid) friend saw the price and said "Maybe I should stick $10k in bitcoin" today. Meanwhile I convinced my investor buddy who has over $1 million in stocks to buy his first bitcoin at $635, he just set up a weekly $400 buy.

It is feeling very much like 2013 again.