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2341  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Analysis of Bitcoin pooled mining reward systems (work in progress) on: November 09, 2011, 01:58:06 PM
Hey Meni,

I've been going over Appendix B, the section related to the loss in earnings for full time miners. I might have this wrong, but the figure you derive fro expected share reward, 0.565..., seems only to take into account rounds that the miners can submit to - did I follow that correctly? So if we take into account all the rounds<0.435*D, then the figure I get is 0.565*(1-probability of rounds under 0.435*D)=0.565* 0.6472645= 0.3662109.

So full time miners would expect to earn as little as 36.6% of their usual reward if they were unable to submit shares in any round less than 0.435*D and can only submit (total round shares-0.435*D) in any round longer than 0.435*D.

I'm hoping I have this right, but if not could you show me where I went wrong? Cheers.
No. The efficiency is (total reward)/(total value of shares submitted). They do not submit any shares to <0.435*D rounds (by assumption these rounds take 0 time) so these rounds don't add to either the numerator or denominator.

The appendix calculates the average reward for every share submitted (by considering the reward in a random time), not for hypothetical shares which were not submitted.

Think of this. Let's say you're mining in some pool (doesn't really matter if it's a fair or proportional pool). Suddenly a Exahash/s miner joins the pool and in a split second finds 1000 blocks, then leaves. Do you lose anything from these 1000 blocks you had not chance to submit work to? No, you didn't do any work in this time and didn't get any reward, it doesn't affect you at all.
2342  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Which is the best pool for mining? - A guide for choosing the right pool on: November 09, 2011, 04:49:46 AM
What you need to know in reality is how the above methods impact your rewards. If you are a casual miner who mines occasionally or if you run a rig that for some reason cannot maintain a stable connection with the pool (bad internet, hardware problems, miner freezing up, etc. etc.), then score-based and PPLNS pools are not for you. These pools punish the miner who, for whatever reason, does not or cannot maintain a stable mining operation at the pool for the entire duration of the round.
That's a myth. PPLNS and score-based are perfectly fine for intermittent miners, their average reward will not be affected.

Proportionate pools are also a prime target for pool hoppers, which can reduce the actual reward you earn, if the pool operator hasn’t taken measures to guard the pool against hoppers.
The only countermeasure is using a hopping-proof method like PPLNS, geometric and double geometric. Other proposed "countermeasures" generally hurt honest miners more than they do hoppers.

For correct information about reward systems, please see Summary of mining pool reward systems and Analysis of Bitcoin pooled mining reward systems.
2343  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Bug report: Missing account in the address book on: November 08, 2011, 03:10:59 PM
This is probably a change address. It's a feature.
So how come I obtained that address if it is something internal? I want to give it a name to tidy up my transaction history.
Can you specify which client you're using? In the default GUI client change addresses don't appear in the list of transactions so you're not supposed to care about them.

At the cost of a bit of privacy, can you post the address in question?
2344  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoil - Exchange bitcoins for ILS on: November 08, 2011, 03:07:15 PM
It's in my signature and you've seen me before, do you disable signatures or just don't pay much attention to them? Also my avatar is Bitcoil's logo, symbolizing it is a blue-and-white Bitcoin (exchange) service. It's also in some mandatory places like the wiki. Also appears in organic Google results for "Bitcoin ILS", "Bitcoin Israel" and "ביטקוין".
Yeah I guess I don't pay much attention to signatures and such.. they are mostly donation requests or tradehill discounts referrals Smiley
Yeah I have those too Smiley. My TH referral code is actually a special partner code which is better (for me) than normal codes. That's moot since nobody has used it in ages, I keep it for now mostly to show support for TH.
2345  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoil - Exchange bitcoins for ILS on: November 08, 2011, 12:01:30 PM
( not exactly low profile...)
My volume recently has been too low even for "low profile" standards, so I can safely try to reach out a bit. Anyway I'm making a slow but steady progress on the legal front.

google ads
Google ads works great for this, because if someone is in Israel and searches for "Bitcoin" I'm almost 100% certain I have something to offer. Problem is, there isn't much relevant search volume. I did a campaign before to test and now relaunched it indefinitely, so expect to keep seeing those ads...

Just found your service by accident ... wish I knew about this before!
It's in my signature and you've seen me before, do you disable signatures or just don't pay much attention to them? Also my avatar is Bitcoil's logo, symbolizing it is a blue-and-white Bitcoin (exchange) service. It's also in some mandatory places like the wiki. Also appears in organic Google results for "Bitcoin ILS", "Bitcoin Israel" and "ביטקוין".

Anyway, I'm not sure how people miss this service but I know they do, hence the Google ads.

If its still up and running we will use your service!
It is, you're welcome to use it!

EDIT:  I just noticed you use Tradehill.  The Rate difference between them and MtGox is sometimes very high 5-8%.
Any special reason you use them?
That's interesting, whenever I checked I had never noticed such a significant difference. But I checked now and indeed there's some 10% discrepancy (why doesn't anyone arbitrage this? The depth isn't huge but I'm sure they could make a nice profit).

The reason for using Tradehill is that we were supposed to start a partnership (which we've postponed due to legal reasons) and we're amicable regardless of any partnership, so it would make sense to use them for backend trading etc. Now that I see the difference can indeed be significant, and seeing as customers would probably expect an mtgox rate, I'll probably switch to mtg rates.
2346  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Bug report: Missing account in the address book on: November 08, 2011, 05:36:23 AM
This is probably a change address. It's a feature.
2347  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin technology adapted into the voting system? on: November 07, 2011, 06:25:16 PM
Electronic voting requires two steps.

1. Assign a unique cryptographic identity to every eligible voter.
2. Collect votes of all cryptographic identities with some protocol.

Cryptographic voting protocols for #2 with good properties already exist (example), and Bitcoin, which was designed to do something else entirely, brings very little, if anything, to the table. For #1, as long as voting eligibility relies on some meatspace attribute, you'll need a meatspace interaction to make the assignment, no sort of fancy technology can change that.
2348  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Casascius coins pledge for European Bitcoin Conference on: November 07, 2011, 09:53:38 AM
I pledge one 1 BTC coin and one broken 1 BTC coin.
2349  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Are pools more efficient? on: November 07, 2011, 09:29:29 AM
This has to be the most illuminating post on how block are generated.

Scenario : Two similar PC, same hardware, same date, same cloned hard-drive, same cloned client, being started at the exact same time.

Would this result in the same work being done twice ?
AFAIK the PRNG uses serial numbers on the hardware components, so even if the two computers have the same configuration, they will generate different wallet addresses and extraNonce.
2350  Bitcoin / Meetups / Re: EUROPEAN BITCOIN CONFERENCE 2011, PRAGUE NOV 25-27 on: November 06, 2011, 02:46:06 PM
I would love to invite the CIA or FBI to debate bitcoin!
The CIA don't come to Bitcoin conferences, they just invite the Bitcoin lead developer to talk.
2351  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [128 GH/s] EMC: 0 Fee/DGM/Merged Mining/PayPal Payout/SMS/US/EU/AU/More on: November 06, 2011, 09:27:18 AM
damn damn damn these rounds from hell!

Does anyone have a feel for how double geometric scoring affects round size based variance?

Out of interest, have you compared your average payout/share to a theoretical prop payout/share for the same round?

If anyone's not sure what I mean then just pick a previous long round and divide payout by your submitted shares. Then divide the Difficulty for that round by the total shares for that round (theoretical proportional pool payout). Compare and contrast. If you can be bothered I'd like to see the results.

You might need to compare a few sequential rounds rather than just one round. To do this, divide your actual total payout by the total shares you submitted. Then (assuming Difficulty didn't change between the rounds you are looking at) compare with (Difficulty*number of rounds)/(total shares in rounds).



It depends on the value of parameter o which every double geometric method pool chooses for his payout model:

Quote
o - Cross-round leakage. Increasing o reduces participants' share-based variance but increases maturity time. When o=0 this becomes the geometric method. When o->1 this becomes a variant of PPLNS, with exponential decay instead of 0-1 cutoff (note that "exponential" does not mean "rapid", the decay can be chosen to be slow). For o=1, c must be 0 and r (defined below) can be chosen freely instead of being given by a formula.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=39497.msg481864#msg481864

Maybe Inaba will make the parameter o - cross-round leakage public.

If you are interested how round size based variance goes with o = 0.5 send me a pm!

Thanks urstroyer - but I was actually after what miner's experiences had been in the short term. In appendix D of Analysis of bitcoin pooled mining reward systems Meni shows how to calculate the variance and maturity time in the DGS payout system, but that doesn't give me the same insight as actual results do.

So I was interested in seeing what recent historical variance results had been after reading a post from someone complaining about a long round - had anyone seen a reduction in variance compared to a proportional payout?
EMC uses c=0.01, o=0.99 which means there is very little reduction in pool-based variance. In AoBPMRS I've only done Geometric so far, not DGS, and anyway I've only calculated share-based variance - deriving pool-based variance is much harder.
2352  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Analysis of Bitcoin pooled mining reward systems (work in progress) on: November 04, 2011, 07:37:13 AM
I really like chapter 6.2.*. Haven't found that much information about this topic anywhere yet. Even countermeasures are described.

Awesome work Meni like always, you are a gift!
Thanks. Most of the content of section 6.2 actually goes back more than half a year. PS the lie-in-wait attack was named by me and I'm the only one talking about it, but I didn't invent it, I picked it up from a comment on slush's pool's thread.
2353  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Analysis of Bitcoin pooled mining reward systems (work in progress) on: November 03, 2011, 08:26:32 PM
I just noticed this thread.  Great work Meni.  This is a fascinating document.
Thanks!
2354  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Analysis of Bitcoin pooled mining reward systems (work in progress) on: November 03, 2011, 07:33:13 PM
Chapter 6 done.
2355  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Doublespend Protection Insurance on: November 03, 2011, 02:02:54 PM
The idea isn't new and if there's a market for it it will happen. I think this will be obviated by split-key wallets as discussed for example in this thread.
2356  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Analysis of Bitcoin pooled mining reward systems (work in progress) on: November 03, 2011, 01:50:19 PM
Btw looked at coinotron's score system?
Code:
score<-score+exp(C*time to submit share/duration of round)
Why do people keep making up these things? There are reward systems which actually work, why not use that instead? From their site - "anti-cheating score system punishing pool-hooping cheaters" - the fact that they think pool-hoppers should be "punished" (rather than simply using a fair invariant method) or that their method does this with any effectiveness, demonstrates they don't know what they're doing.

It may be "resistant" to changes in hashrate and difficulty, but not immune. It has a different variance/hopping profile from slush's, with at least one significant disadvantage - the profitability has no lower bound for arbitrarily long rounds.

which means the score has a maximum of exp(C) and the final pool score will be (total submitted shares)/(C*exp(C)) if you assume a constant hashrate for the pool.
Probably should be (total submitted shares*exp(C))/(C).
2357  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [40 GH/s] yourbtc.net - DGM - Merged Mining - Registration Open - 0% Fee - API on: November 02, 2011, 08:48:54 AM
and it should be done purely to pay for server costs and for your time.
I disagree. A fee should also be taken for the risk. It doesn't have to be a high fee if planned properly.

Can someone explain why the risk is greater for urstroyer at higher hashrates? Just because there are more members and if the pool gets unlucky then a percentage of the payout comes from his pocket (which could be a large amount if we are going through lots of blocks)?
Yes, that's basically it. With more miners there's more money passed around and more to lose if the pool gets unlucky. More formally, the variance of the number of blocks found is proportional to the hashrate. But the relative variance is inversely proportional to the hashrate, so with proper planning more hashrate is a good thing.
2358  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Are pools more efficient? on: November 02, 2011, 08:19:18 AM
But to find a single solution from an "essentially infinite" space of solutions, you will have to sample a significant proportion of those "essentially infinite" solutions. That means it's not infinite at all. Probabilistically, you would expect to sample as many solutions as there are total possible solutions if you just randomly guess at it. If you keep randomly guessing a number between 1 and 10, you will expect to guess 10 times before you get it. You could possibly guess wrong twenty times in a row.
What you're missing is that there are many correct solutions. The block header is 640 bits (some of them can't be easily controlled, but never mind that) so there are 2^640 potential solutions, which is indeed virtually infinite. Of those, there are 2^608/Difficulty correct solutions. So people still have a chance to find a correct solution (1/(2^32*Difficulty) per hash), but no chance to test the same solution someone else did (if they're randomizing properly).
2359  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Are pools more efficient? on: November 01, 2011, 08:58:08 PM
Pools aren't "more efficient" in the way you mean. The search space of solutions is virtually infinite, so there is no chance of people duplicating work even without any coordination. Basically miners are trying random numbers until they get a hit, whether they're mining pool or solo. The average number of blocks found by a miner is the same in both cases.

What pools do is reduce the variance in a miner's payout. I discuss the basics of this in chapter 1 of Analysis of Bitcoin pooled mining reward systems.

The Bitcoin network would be more robust if more people mined solo.  When pools are DDOSed, block rate slows down and transactions confirms slower as a result.
Not if people properly set up failover pools. And other current problems of pools with respect to network robustness have solutions which will be implemented in the future.
2360  Economy / Lending / Re: 1 week loan needed on: November 01, 2011, 08:29:49 PM
I was thinking about that too!
Halakha and Sharia are strikingly similar when it comes business law.
I'm an observant Jew as well
Meni, you wanna start the JBB with me?  We should parner with the IBB
Thats REAL peace!  Cheesy
That could be interesting. I don't know if I'll have much time or energy to dedicate to this as I'm too tied up with my other projects. Maybe you should PM me with your ideas for this?

Sure, Im super busy brining investors in BitInstant as well, and my retail sites, hows the volume on Bitcoil? We should talk about integration.

I'm assuming your in the aretz right now, when I get back there in a few months, Ill give you a shout
Volume is very low, but I have my hands full ironing out legal, technical and banking issues, as well as marketing and Bitcoin project development.

Sent you a PM about integration. Will be great to meet you when you're in Israel.
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