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2341  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 25, 2022, 06:08:51 AM
It seems Putin don't actually care about the sanctions been placed on his country.
This is not so if Putin really did not care about the sanctions of the West - he would simply ignore them, or brush them off like an annoying fly. Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight). But the West did not seem to take into account that Russia would have the audacity to impose counter-sanctions of a similar strength. And if Russia withstood the blow of the West with dignity, then whether the West will withstand the blow of Russia is a very big question. Russia has a very simple and strong economy with a steady budget surplus and a positive foreign trade balance. The Western economy is now like a huge bubble, inflated during the pandemic by quantitative easing programs to incredible proportions. And it looks like Putin has pierced this bubble with the sharp needle of his decision to sell gas for rubles.

I usually do not give free investment advice, but today I will make an exception. Hyperinflation is coming, buy bitcoin.
2342  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 25, 2022, 05:40:16 AM
the Russians are trying to minimize civilian casualties

Except for the whole decision to bomb cities while cutting off their food, gas and electrify for weeks now.  These aren't things a military that's trying to minimize civilian casualties does.  Remember, they're in Ukraine.  The Russians are the ones invading Ukraine.  You realize that right?
Of course I understand this correctly. Russia is conducting a military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and, as part of achieving its goals, strikes at everything that shoots. If the shooters are hiding in residential buildings, strikes are made on residential buildings. The strikes will continue until the desire and ability of Ukraine to continue to shoot will not completely disappear.

The appearance of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is a farce, negotiations are going on without a ceasefire. The negotiators essentially do not decide anything, their composition makes one doubt their authority to decide anything at all. The operation will end when Russia reaches its goals in full, and the attempts of the Ukrainian side to negotiate better terms of surrender are ridiculous. I regret the losses on both sides, but it is unacceptable for Russia to show pity now, because it will be perceived by the West as a sign of weakness. Anyone who does not lay down their arms will be killed. I respect the Ukrainian soldiers who continue to fight without a chance to win, their death will be heroic, although in vain. Russia offers Ukrainian soldiers to surrender and save their lives, but cannot forbid them to die for their ideals, even if these Nazi ideals are unacceptable to Russia.
2343  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 25, 2022, 04:00:02 AM
Putin is still in denial that he is in no position to be making demands.
Oh no, Putin is now in exactly the position where he can demand anything, unlike Zelensky. Gaddafi was killed for less. Previously, the United States solved such problems simply - they drove an aircraft carrier and started bombing, if only the appearance of an aircraft carrier was not enough. Where are the American aircraft carriers now? They are afraid to get closer than a thousand kilometers, because otherwise the hypersonic Dagger will fly in and turn it into a pile of flaming debris.
2344  Other / Politics & Society / Re: what could be Vladimir Putin intension for the war? on: March 25, 2022, 03:49:57 AM
We don't know the real intention of this Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine is just a pawn in this global geopolitical game of chess. Russia has challenged the existing world order. History is being made before our eyes.
2345  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 25, 2022, 03:25:34 AM
Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.

Translation: Putin is running out of euros and he needs more euros so he's trying to renegotiate the gas contracts.

That's all there is to it. He can't pay anyone outside of Russia (e.g. China) in rubles. He needs real currency. He's thoroughly fucked either way but if he can extort a few extra euros this way, he might be able to make it to May 9 and have a few tanks remaining for his last parade in the Red Square.
Russia ran out of euros in gold and foreign exchange reserves a month ago, when one of the very first sanctions imposed blocked the funds of the Central Bank in dollars and euros. Translation - The West stole Russian euros.

China has not joined the Western sanctions, so the Central Bank's yuan is fine, don't worry about it. You did not understand what actually happened after the announcement of "rubles for gas". Now the ruble is the real currency, backed by (for starters) gas. Unlike the dollar and the euro with uncontrolled emission, which are essentially empty shells. It is very funny to see how the countries on the unfriendly list, which cannot refuse Russian gas here and now, will go through five stages of accepting the inevitable:
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Gas for rubles
2346  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 07:13:08 PM
Just use google to verify what your propaganda is feeding you.
You are a very funny conversationalist, but it's time for me to sleep in the hayloft. Tomorrow morning I will get up again at sunrise, eat a baby for breakfast and drink vodka, then I will pull one European out of the cellar to feed my tame bear, then I will put on ceremonial bast shoes and an earflap with a red star, put firewood into the electric generator, turn on my analog lamp computer and I will again inspire everyone with horror on the Internet all day, telling propaganda. It's hard work, but after victory I was promised two sacks of potatoes, four cases of vodka and a dozen captured homosexual Europeans, my bear loves them very much for their tender meat.  Grin
2347  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 04:44:11 PM
Glad you're having fun. For many years the United States inspired you with the idea that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the strongest army in Europe, and for three whole months of winter you were preparing for the invasion of Russia. And when it happened, you weren't ready. And now Zelensky is running around with a burnt bottom and begging everyone in a row for more planes and tanks, and in general at least something, and "the strongest army in Europe" is fragmented, disoriented, deprived of air support and has not carried out a single successful counter- offensive. It's a shame.
2348  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 04:18:22 PM
The fact is, Putin's Russia will be selling rubles to Germany to pay for gas, so euros will end up in Putin's pocket, just as it's happening now.
Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.
2349  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Did the US, its allies and the West think these sanctions through? on: March 24, 2022, 01:55:29 PM
For example, in America itself, the price of oil is now rising and this will cause inflation to get worse there
I'll tell you more, if now heavy Ural oil is sold at a significant discount to light Brent oil, then the situation will probably soon change to the opposite and heavy oil will become significantly more expensive than light oil. Because although it is needed relatively little for the regular operation of oil refineries, it is produced, apart from Russia, only by Iran and Venezuela. The United States has seriously quarreled with all the suppliers of heavy oil in the world.

It seems Madeleine Albright once said that the United States would buy Russian oil for rubles only over her corpse. Well, she kept her word, R.I.P.
2350  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 01:24:40 PM
No matter how you polish the turd, Putin wants more euros.
You think irrationally, what is the point of him wanting the euro if they are under sanctions? What to do with them - look at the frozen numbers on the screen? The European Union is now in an extremely difficult life situation for anyone in their right mind to want the euro. Uncontrolled price increases, strikes, an influx of refugees and strong internal divisions. My forecast for the European Union is that it will collapse in one or two years, and in a month one euro will be cheaper than one US dollar.
2351  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How long ukraine could survive? on: March 24, 2022, 01:14:28 PM
Poland may get some of it's lands back.
I think with a probability of 90% Poland will try to squeeze out the Lviv region. They have a national idea "from sea to sea" there that constantly itches, but here is such an opportunity.
2352  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 12:31:33 PM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

Putin could easily force Gazprom to sell their euros at any rate he wants. The only reason to try to force e.g. Germany to do it is to basically renege on the contract - I bet the rate he wants will be something ludicrous and not the current market rate. Essentially he wants more euros, not rubles.

Well, yes, I think Putin has enough rubles. But there is a nuance, now Germany, Austria, Japan and all other unfriendly countries that buy gas from Russia will want rubles. And in order to continue buying Russian gas, they will have to learn how to get around their own sanctions, which they have so generously imposed on Russia. And they will have to support the Russian economy, which they have already declared "torn to shreds."

Walked now to the store - the shelves are full of products, including sugar. I didn’t buy it, I still have more than enough stocks from the pandemic. Prices for office paper are also artificially inflated, a pack of A3 paper is cheaper than a pack of A4 paper, although it is enough to cut an A3 pack in half at the nearest printing house and there will be two A4 packs. Maybe this is a good reason to reduce the bureaucracy in Russia and introduce electronic document management not together with paper, but instead.

Russia has been living under sanctions for a hundred years, this will not scare us. We are Russians - God is with us.
2353  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 09:28:56 AM

World once again move back to the crazy old days.
Quote
I would like to point out that the supply situation for liquid fuels makes all owners of commercial vehicles in their own interest the conversion to the operation with wood generator gas as a duty.
Anyone who does not convert his vehicle can not expect to continue to receive petrol or diesel fuel in the foreseeable future.
Reichsminister Albert Speer, 22.10.1942
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXaoQ0k9Jlg
Half hour start-up time takes all the stress out of the rush hour. With extra bag of supply and refulling stops more then 100km reach.
Should be made compulsory for idiot politicians for daily work drive.
Elon Musk recently launched a factory in Germany and even danced at the opening. To hell with gasoline, progressive Europe will soon drive only electric cars! And electricity for them will be generated by wind turbines. The main thing is that the wind does not blow from the east, from the territory of backward Russia. And then scientists will invent household teleporters and the problem of movement will be solved in a radical way. Just to live until brighter days!  Grin
2354  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 24, 2022, 08:00:44 AM
Putin shows NATO the capabilities of modern Russian weapons and how to fight - without general mobilization, without numerical superiority and without burning entire neighborhoods with fire.
Good joke!
But no, you are wrong: https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1499633290004905985
Russian propaganda seems to be efficient.
At least to fool yourself.
Buddy, it's better for you not to know the alternative scenario, because instead of houses with broken windows on your video there would be only craters from rockets and air bombs and nothing else. During the month of the special operation, the losses of the personnel of the Russian troops exceed the losses among the civilian population. You seem to have problems with propaganda, because instead of understanding that the Russians are trying to minimize civilian casualties, screams are heard that the blitzkrieg failed. There would have been even fewer losses if the Ukrainian army had defended its people (and why else would an army be needed?), and not hide behind their backs. If Ukraine does not understand such simple things, well, it will no longer have its own army.

Russian warship fuck you? Go fuck yourself.
2355  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 07:43:53 AM
West should just stop ALL business with Russia
You are calling the West to economic suicide. The big economy of the West really means that the West has a lot of debt and well developed derivatives. But futures and options are not edible. The strength of the dollar and the euro is based on trust in them, which is now undermined by the freezing of funds from the Central Bank of Russia, and once undermined trust is very difficult to return back. Germany alone needs more LPG tankers to replace Russian gas than there are anywhere in the world. Once again, if all the tankers in the world drop their business and take gas to Germany, this will not be enough. Try to turn on the brain before demanding the impossible from the West.
2356  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 24, 2022, 04:43:44 AM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

True. And it also applies to existing contracts that actually estate the payment in USD or Euro. The obvious target is Germany.

As strategy to support the "rubble", mean the ruble is fine. The only slight little problem is that it completely contravenes the international law - and yes, I know that Putin does not care much about it and thinks he is the law and all that, but as silly as it may seem, it does create very serious concerns on his Russia as a trading partner, as contracts from now on are wet paper (or wet digitally signed PDFs).

That is a massive increase of risk to any trade conducted with his Russia, which usually mean that prices of products coming from Russia will be paid at a discount and investments are likely to carry a massive risk premium.

Do not be fooled, there is a price to pay for this and it is hefty and long lasting.
It is interesting that you remembered international law now, and not a month ago, when the currency accounts of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros were frozen, as well as after the parade of economic sanctions and the withdrawal of many companies from Russia with the refusal of their obligations. There is no more international law. And yes - this is primarily a blow to Germany, as the locomotive of the European Union. Now Germany will support the Russian ruble, or plunge into medieval darkness without heat and light. Perhaps the decision of the UK to leave the European Union was wise, because the fate of the European Union is very vague, it is likely to face an inglorious collapse into small European states - tolerant of refugees and decarbonized. Europe will get what it wanted and what it deserved.
2357  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Аналитика, анализ, прогнозы. on: March 23, 2022, 08:02:22 PM
Евро сейчас обеспечен ... ХЗ, реально не знаю и не понимаю чем чем он сейчас "обеспечен". Пацаны, помогайте ))
У Соединённых Штатов Европы сейчас объективно очень сложная жизненная ситуация, возможно вскоре мы увидим череду экстренных катапультаций тире брекситов, а то и вовсе распад ЕС и возврат к национальным европейским валютам. Первая же серьёзная контр-санкция России это ни что иное как выстрел Европе точно в голову.
2358  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Аналитика, анализ, прогнозы. on: March 23, 2022, 07:05:51 PM
Доллару песец уже пришел или приходит?
Quote
Путин поручил перевести платежи за газ в рубли для недружественных стран
https://www.rbc.ru/politics/23/03/2022/623b12619a7947516000dffe


Я бы сейчас больше переживал за евро, потому что зависимость ЕС от российского газа очень сильная и преодолеть её возможно минимум за пять лет в самом оптимистичном раскладе, но направление мысли в целом правильное. У Путина стальные яйца, Каддафи убили и за меньшее.
2359  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Strategic defeat for Russia? on: March 23, 2022, 06:59:37 PM
The problem of Putin..
There is a good saying that might be relevant here. "The rhinoceros has poor eyesight, but with its weight, this is not his problem".  Grin
2360  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 23, 2022, 06:46:39 PM
My point wasn't that there are zero Nazis defending Ukraine right now.  Obviously there are Nazis on both sides of the battle.  In Ukraine, they basically have no political power and are really only relevant because they are pretty good at fighting and have been recruiting others to join (like any 'good' Nazi anywhere in the world).  

Then there's the Nazis on the other side:

Quote
Russian ethnic and imperialist nationalism has shaped the official ideology of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.[172] Far-right nationalist groups have played a greater role on the pro-Russian side of the conflict than on the Ukrainian side, especially at the beginning.[123][172] Leaders of the Donetsk People's Militia are closely linked to the neo-Nazi party Russian National Unity (RNU) led by Alexander Barkashov, which has recruited many fighters.[172][173][174] A former member of RNU, Pavel Gubarev, was founder of the Donbas People's Militia and first "governor" of the Donetsk People's Republic.[172][175] RNU is particularly linked to the Russian Orthodox Army, a religious ultranationalist unit which is part of the Donetsk People's Militia.[174][176] Other neo-Nazi units include the 'Rusich', 'Svarozhich' and 'Ratibor' battalions, which have Slavic swastikas on their badges.[172]

Here's a pretty detailed paper, I've only gotten through part of it so far https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/rnv95_uk_likhachev_far-right_radicals_final.pdf
English is not my native language, although I have a decent command of it. I do not quite understand the meaning of your message, what exactly do you want to convey to me? That there are people who adhere to ultra-right views in the People's Militia of Donbass? Well, it is possible - eight years of life under shelling from Ukraine probably contribute to the radicalization of views. As Domitius Ulpian said, "a way of thinking is not punishable." Inside your head, you can hold whatever views you want, whether right or left, and you can even go as far as you want in your ideological radicalization. In Russia there is no Ministry of Truth, which indicates how to think. It is not thoughts that are punished, but illegal actions. If there are illegal actions on the part of the people's militia of Donbass, they will also be punished. If these actions threaten Russia, they will be punished by Russia. Otherwise, this is an internal affair of the people's republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
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